Scotland Indyref 2

Call it what you want epic just noting the constant hysterical shrill wining that has been coached in by the SNP's presentation team.

Three scots on the QT panel last night. Two managed to make sensible arguments without ranting and wining and talking very angrily at 100mph. Still there is a need to create false rage against [s]local delivery faliures[/s] the bogeymen

I think your own bigotry is clouding your judgement there thm. You are quite pathetic.

THM wants to lecture us on HYSTERICAL SHRILL WINING[sic] 😆

OH THE IRONY
that is just brilliant and genuinely made me LOL at it.
What is it about the SNP and an independence vote that makes you the worst example of what you are complaining about?

Bigotry now!!!

Yes, this forum deserves better.

to be fair, the last thread showed, you were also bigoted then so its not new 😉

FWIW i do not think for one second you are a racist/bigot and you clearly oppose it. However there is something about the SNP that does send you over the edge and clearly you hate them and do little more than hurl abuse at them and lose your famous "impartiality".
Even UKIP dont get this treatment from you and they "lie" just as much and they are often openly racist.
Control yourself wee man.

So .. to sum up.

a) We won't be like Greece because reasons (admittedly this is true to an extent because its warmer there).

b) Money doesn't matter anyway (and by extension the NHS, social care and public services can be done without for a number of years). How this fits in with a left leaning political outlook is anyones guess.

c) Any discussion of potential negative results of Scottish independence can be chased away with the words "too poor, too wee, too feart, etc etc". But cannot be answered with "too gullible, too blinkered, too easily led".

d) Facts can be ignored at will because "we're talking about the future ... so no-one knows anything really".
I can only assume that none of you have savings, house insurance or pensions because such things are only for those who think that the facts of today may be vaguely related to the events of tomorrow?.

e) And the really big one. Independent Scotland will be everything the SNP is:
Left wing, but low tax and business friendly,
Green, but oil based,
Anti nuclear, but a member of nato,
Pro european, but treated differently by europe than Greece.
In favour of local democracy, but concentrating power and control in the central belt.
Allegedly open for debate, but plays the man and not the ball almost every time.*

And so on and so forth. A smorgasbord of political non sequiturs for the hard of thinking.

*Perfect example was Swinney yesterday; criticised by labour and conservatives, he didn't answer their points, but accused then of working together "in the way they did during the independence campaign".
This always comes up as a grievance but carefully ignores the fact that Nic herself stood on the same platform as the conservatives during the Remain campaign (though maybe she was untainted because she brought her own flask and sandwiches?).

Better i.e. No dissent and BOGOF on snake oil. The usual way..,,

And the really big one. Independent Scotland will be everything the SNP is:

Wrong - there is a huge difference between being an snp supporter and supporting independence. I have never voted snp. We understand this is about the right to elect our own government not for this snp government. The parliament is designed to produce coalitions / minority governments

Personally I would prefer a proper federal solution but that doesn't seem possible anytime soon and independence is a better bet than westminster rule

SNP were not part of the formal Remain campaign. Better Together was a formal campaign and Labour and the Tories were members.

[i]And the really big one. Independent Scotland will be everything the SNP is:[/I]

Just because we'll be independent doesn't mean we'll be a one-party state, this isn't England post Brexit 😉

You seem to have misunderstood the point. There is no suggestion of a one party state, but most of that stuff is somewhat inevitable whatever party is in power (unless you decide to elect the Tories)

km79
Fair enough.
But thats not what the SNP accuse Labour of.
They accuse them of being on the "same platform" and imply that support on one issue implies many other things (about which they are non specific .. maybe tory cooties?).

Anyway I'm sure Nic has had her shots, so its all fine.

tj - I know that you aren't SNP, but many are and I'm trying to point out the doublethink required in supporting a party that preaches social democracy alongside recommending a course that will lead to massive cuts in welfare an health budgets.

Its almost like people think that the phrase "massive austerity" is just a sequence of words. Maybe the average person just can't imagine how bad things can get very quickly after huge economic and political upheaval? Greece (hate to bring it up again) has learned hard and fast how the world (even _inside_ the EU) works.

Who wants to play with people who think thats a price worth paying for their political aims?

EDIT: Maybe ask yourself. What level of potential economic pain and austerity would make the SNP think.
"Whew thats a bit much. Lets put independence on the back burner for a while and try to get the economy in a better shape"

Anyone want to hazard a realistic guess? I think we all know the answer.

Maybe the average person just can't imagine how bad things can get very quickly after huge economic and political upheaval?

The reality is that we have no idea if iS [ in the EU] will fair better than rUK outside the EU

I think most of us agree that both will be economically worse off than the status quo but deciding which is the "Least bad" is impossible to know at this point in time
Its not inevitable iS will do a Greece - it might just be a bit of project fear.

Maybe the average person just can't imagine how bad things can get very quickly after huge economic and political upheaval?

There are many living the reality right now of being poor and vulnerable under a Tory government. Some of them are even driven to suicide because of it. Many others who are OK themselves can see these people and are willing to risk a bit of their own personal living standards in order to progress as a whole. Can anyone honestly say this would happen under a Tory government for the next 20 years or so? No, so what is the realistic alternative?

epicyclo - Member

Someone mentioned the UK made no money out of oil last year.

Are those UK govt figures or are they something that can be checked independently?

They are not in dispute.

Professor Graeme Roy, of Strathclyde University's Fraser of Allander Institute, said: "Today's GERS figures show the harsh reality of the sharp decline in North Sea revenues on Scotland's public finances. Just four years ago, North Sea revenues contributed nearly £10bn to Scotland's revenues - this year that figure was just £60m. This is likely to be the new normal given the long-term outlook for the oil and gas sector."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-37167975

As for bigotry, I am a Scotophile who believes in supporting the interest of the Scottish people.

Scotland is a great country. Small in stature but blessed with a vibrant economy, abundant resources, great people, spectacular scenery, a strong sense of identity and a proud history and traditions. It is also home to the UK's second oldest, but finest University.

The economy is strong in GDP per capita terms and highly correlated with the economic cycle in the rUK, it's largest trading partner. However, it suffers from a relatively low level of diversification and subsequent exposure to a volatile commodity price and financial services with the volatility and obvious risks that this entails. The main sectors of the economy also have high levels of foreign ownership - note the difference between GDP and GNI - which means a relative high exposure to foreign capital and investment. In other words, a very similar cycle to rUK but with risks of greater volatility and reversal of foreign investment.

So the interest of the Scottish people are best served when the opportunities are maximised and the challenges/risks minimised. There is an obvious answer - membership of one of the most successful unions in the world.

Unlike the EU, the UK satisfies all of the criteria for a successful single currency area and, again unlike the EU, has the structure in place for this to work ie full monetary, fiscal and political union. On top of this it has the added bonus of high and increasing levels of devolved power to the extent that independent commentators have described e current situation as a de facto federal state. [b]This is a phenomenal foundation and one that is extremely rare in the modern world. [/b]The opportunity to maximise opportunities and growth within Scotland and with easy, free access to the major trading partners rUK and the US while also benefitting from the diversification and reduced risks accruing from being part of the UK and the ability to access more abundant and cheaper foreign capital. There's not much of the cake left to eat.

Despite this abundance of riches and extraordinary supporting structure, Scotland has underperformed in economic and social affairs including the priorities of education and health. Some of this is due to external factors, some (a lot) is due to .... You decide. The SNP will do their very best to lay the blame elsewhere but the evidence is pretty overwhelming.

So the foundation is in place that allows opportunities to be maximised and risks minimised - in a uniquely successful model. Full independence does not improve the opportunities but it does significantly increase the risks. The EU - a smaller and much slower growing trading partner - offers lower opportunity with the massive downside of a structure that cannot, by design and execution, work and requires giving up significant levels of sovereignty. A goal that is incompatible with the desire for greater autonomy. In fact, it is in direct contrast to the intended direction of travel. madness.

So the answer in terms of the interests of the Scottish people is pretty clear. More developed power, within the UK and better people in charge, much better people. #SDBMB

I am a Scotophile

TBH if you need to try and convince folk of facts like that then you really are standing on very weak ground.

That you then dedicate the rest of that post to economics/money/finances serves once more to show that you view the world only in terms of a financial spreadsheet and money.
I genuinely feel sorry for you that this is all you can ever do count pennies
you can see the value of everything but you cannot see its worth- I guess i should have just used an hashtag acronym there eh 😉

km79

There are many living the reality right now of being poor and vulnerable under a Tory government. Some of them are even driven to suicide because of it. Many others who are OK themselves can see these people and are willing to risk a bit of their own personal living standards in order to progress as a whole. Can anyone honestly say this would happen under a Tory government for the next 20 years or so? No, so what is the realistic alternative?

So how many years of indy before we can afford even the levels of support that have been leading to suicides?

Do you really think that a wee drop in living standards is all that it'll take.

Please go and look at the graph I put up a few pages ago.

Lose 10Bn from 70Bn government spending and tell me how things would get better for the people you describe.

The Scottish government got an extra Bn this year from "Westmonster". WHat have they done with that money to help the people you describe?

They have the cash and the power now, and they do nothing.

But they've actually convinced you that if they have more power and less cash things will get better?

Wow.

TJ.

Plenty of is here have no doubt that a big part of the Indy vote is "sticking two fingers up to Westminster". That's as crystal clear as a Scottish tarn. Plenty of us here understand exactly the real meaning of Westminster is English.

Oil Price, is an example of ask 4 Economists and get 5 answers. My 2 cents are that the dynamics have changed, the US is now self sufficient with shale (price dependent but not much higher than now), previously sanctioned / at war Middle Eastern countries are now back online. Add in the economic slowdown and lower demand from China and a sustained period of $40-60 looks like the new norm.

Of course Sturgeon is worried, she doesn't want a Referendum soon as she knows she won't win. She wants a free option to call one whenever she likes in the future, that plus even more concessions from the UK for powers the SNP won't use.

Seasomah. Hey no problem to go into the negotiations based upon Scotland getting its share of BoE assets to backstop its currency. In fact I'd positively encourage it, put that in you Indy Book Mk2. What you come out with and when is a different story.

As for the thread being a repeat of the first one, well for the most part yes it is.

Indy 1 would have meant iS was outside the EU applying for membership. That hasn't changed.
Scotland's economic fortunes are highly correlated to the oil price. That hasn't changed
Scotland needs to make a decision about when to take the €, soon or immediately. That hasn't changed.

I think the main new development is the implosion of Labour South of the border replicating their demise North of it. So the "anyone but the Tories, including Junker/Tusk/etc has more weight now.

Plenty of here have no doubt that a big part of the Indy vote is "sticking two fingers up to Westminster". Plenty of us here understand exactly the real meaning of Westminster is English.

TJ.

Plenty of is here have no doubt that a big part of the Indy vote is "sticking two fingers up to Westminster". That's as crystal clear as a Scottish tarn. Plenty of us here understand exactly the real meaning of Westminster is English.

"Sticking two finger up to westminster" meant from the EU27. Anti english sentiment is only a small part of the independence movement

Seasomah. Hey no problem to go into the negotiations based upon Scotland getting its share of BoE assets to backstop its currency. In fact I'd positively encourage it, put that in you Indy Book Mk2.

Its one option - obviously the £ would have to be a transitional currency. Scottish pound, euro or keep on using £ sterling being the 3 that I can see. A scottish £ is my favoured option medium term but thats a decision down the road for further Scottish governments and to a great extent depends how awkward westminster want to be.

The whole picture with regard to the EU has changed as a result of the brexit vote very much in Scotlands favour

irc - Member
"...Are those UK govt figures or are they something that can be checked independently?"

They are not in dispute.

OK, but what did Norway take in the same period?

There's no really much point in a discussion if all one side if going to do is chuck about accusations of anti englishness, despite repeatedly been told that's not the case. But just carry on telling people what they mean when they say something. I'm sure you'll find a receptive audience... somewhere in the gutter no doubt, so keep sneering away. Not a conversation i'm interested in.

Despite this abundance of riches and extraordinary supporting structure, Scotland has underperformed in economic and social affairs including the priorities of education and health. Some of this is due to external factors, some (a lot) is due to .... You decide. The SNP will do their very best to lay the blame elsewhere but the evidence is pretty overwhelming.

what evidence?

Decades of neglect and antipathy by successive Tory and Labour governments.

The SNP have only really had a position of influence in recent years, yet you are somehow trying to pin Scotland's social ills on them rather than a long history of neglect from Westminster

Is this like when Trump says he is the least racist person ever and no one respect women more?

There is actually an analogy between trump and some older indy supporters - rose tinted spectacle memories of the booming 70's and 80's, thinking hydrocarbon booms and industry can be recreated in the current world.

I ask because it seems gross incompetence for a govt not to be making money out of a resource mined in its country/waters.

I think you have a profound lack of understanding of the basics of economy then. There's been a lot written about oil price recently, find a reputable source and read a bit.

Oil Price, is an example of ask 4 Economists and get 5 answers. My 2 cents are that the dynamics have changed, the US is now self sufficient with shale (price dependent but not much higher than now), previously sanctioned / at war Middle Eastern countries are now back online. Add in the economic slowdown and lower demand from China and a sustained period of $40-60 looks like the new norm.

Price is one thing, however the oil money should belong to us

http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/oilgas1516

Scottish production increased by 21.4% compared to 2014-5, and [b]accounted for 81 per cent of the UK total[/b].

In 2015-16, oil and gas fields in [b]Scotland accounted for 96 per cent of UK crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) production, and 60 per cent of UK natural gas production[/b].

And of course lets not forget this robbery has been going on for a long time

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/how-black-gold-was-hijacked-north-sea-oil-and-the-betrayal-of-scotland-518697.html

THM: "Despite this abundance of riches and extraordinary supporting structure, Scotland has underperformed in economic and social affairs including the priorities of education and health."

Oh dear. That's a bit rich when any comparison is made with the complete cluster***k that is happening south of the border at present!
Happy days, guys, go back to peddling your alternative facts while the Scottish parliament cracks on with running the most effective administration currently in existence within this group of islands.
Mind you, if we could actually gather and use all of the tax take that is due and collectible north of the border, we would have a bit more to play with. And before anyone tries to counter that wee suggestion, have a really careful think about it...

That's as crystal clear as a Scottish tarn.

And with one sentence you have expertly summed up your knowledge of Scotland! I must admit this made me grin.

bigjim - Member
'I ask because it seems gross incompetence for a govt not to be making money out of a resource mined in its country/waters.'
I think you have a profound lack of understanding of the basics of economy then. There's been a lot written about oil price recently, find a reputable source and read a bit.

I understand how to make money, but I am not economist, so I looked for real world comparisons.

No one has answered the question that that was appended to.

How much did Norway make in the same period?

EDIT:
Oh look - from Norskpetroleum's site

The net government cash flow from petroleum activities in billion NOK, 2016

Taxes 51,3
Environmental taxes and area fees 6,6
Net cash flow from SDFI 55,8
Statoil dividend 10,8
The net government cash flow 124,5

So that's about £12 billion.

So is the Westminster govt incompetent or is it using creative accounting again to disguise oil income?

And as a matter of interest how much did Norway make - they have the same size oilfields etc?

Norway' output is double that of the UK, output figures below (NB: UK includes non 'North Sea' fields as well, although that will be a small %):

[img] [/img]

The economic argument for indy was always mince, and now its toast.

Still no answers about how having less money and more power will improve things (like health and welfare)? Apart from "it'll be better because Scottish".

I guess all those other small countries that have failed to grow their economies by 20% in a year or 2 just haven't wanted it enough? Or will be watching iScotland for tips 🙂

Still blaming years of "Westminster neglect" for the state of NHS and education in Scotlands despite 10 years of SNP control, when things have gone backwards.

Don't forget that this year Scotland is getting MORE money than last year, but still complains about how its still a cut since <insert year when it was better>.

Still hoping that indy can be funded with just a little discomfort (for others), when funding the shortfall in cash available after indy would need an 83% increase in income taxes*.

* N.B. I'm not saying that would be the path an iScotland would take to pay its bills, but maybe it'll focus a few minds on just how big the Scottish deficit really is.

The worst Brexit economic predictions are nothing compared to the clear and immediate self harm that leaving the UK would do to Scotland.

So roll on project indy-fear. The economics doesn't add up so it'll be full on "Brexit" fear plus "Tory" fear and the "Hollyrood" fear has already started.

The grievance bus is warming up, free rides for everyone :O)

But remember not to suggest that a "grievance" is directed at anyone else in a negative way.
SNP grievances are not divisive and bitter like the nasty nationalist ones that led to brexit.
They are uplifting, inclusive and tolerant, because ... magic I guess?

eat the pudding, why do you want us to stay if you obviously hate us? It's a very evident emotion in your posts...

when things have gone backwards.

Scotland has not gone backwards in the last 10 years. It's a better place than it was 10 or 20 years ago. If you can't see that, then you don't know scotland.

Eat the pudding I already responded to your post about NHS performance one thing I linked to was the Nuffield centres update to the 2010 report that you linked to. The update contains 3 years more work and comes to a very different conclusion, that there is in their opinion no significant difference overall in the performance of the NHS across any of the 4 countries in the union. That doesn't fit with your narrative though.

Scotland has not gone backwards in the last 10 years. It's a better place than it was 10 or 20 years ago. If you can't see that, then you don't know scotland.

Like everything you can pick and choose to suit your agenda, Dundee is better, Aberdeen has gone backwards.

seosamh77

eat the pudding, why do you want us to stay if you obviously hate us? It's a very evident emotion in your posts...

Wow.. 🙂 Theres a whole parcel of assumptions and insults in there (are you a wizzard or just an ordinary telepath?)

Who is "us" in your comment?
Where is the hate, and against whom?
What do you assume my cultural heritage to be?
Where do you think I live?
Citations please rather than accusations of hatred out of your arse.

If you find any comment where I've said anything negative about Scottish people (rather than some vocal minority political opinions and political parties)? Please post here.

So good luck with that, and in case of error, maybe apologise?

[Follow up question: Am I a racialist now, or do I have to wait for next weeks exciting comments?]

gordimhor,
OK Based on the information provided I'll let the NHS comment slide and assume you are correct about the follow up report.
I fully accept that after 10 years of SNP control things are no better in the NHS in Scotland than in England.

I note you haven't provided anything further on the state of Education? (particularly as the SNP Education secretary seems to agree with me)

Maybe those who think that things are better under the SNP could list some of the legislation passed since the beginning of the current Scottish Parliament. Where doubtless they are using their new powers for the benefit of Scottish people?

nope, read back the tone of your own posts. It's evident.

Highland man

We are saying much this same thing. You have an effective and efficient (?) administration plus the advantages of having union with your main trading partner. You know want to throw an important part of that away in a flight of folly.

You can decide on the relative track record. If you are really happy with the SNPs performance on health and education then fair enough - personally I have higher expectations but it's a personal thing - and the evidence is clear

ETP YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO QUESTION THE NARRATIVE

In what way is the Scottish NHS worse than England's?

As someone who has had to use it I think it's brilliant, and so does anyone else I know.

Much better than having to deal with a privatised system which just seems to exist to suck the last cent out of you before you die.

dragon - Member
And as a matter of interest how much did Norway make - they have the same size oilfields etc?
Norway' output is double that of the UK,

OK so the UK should have made £6 billion out of that then. Incompetence or creative accounting?

I've already asked him to provide specific details beyond the GERS numbers(which I'm not disputing), then we can delve into it. Nup still missing, how can we answer his question with out specifics?

seosamh77
So you stand by your accusation that I;
a) Hate Scottish people (which I guess could be construed as an accusation of racism).
b) Don't live in Scotland myself.

Is that a fair summary?

Honestly, your refusal cut and paste any evidence of something so "evident" says a lot more about you than it does about me.

Hugs 🙂

EDIT:
PS .. do you think "the SNP" and "Scotland" are the same thing.
No .. Apparently you have no self perception.
Yes .. You are Nicola Sturgeon and I claim my 5 groats

a. comes across as much
b. no idea, neither do i care. just making the assertion that if you think scotland is a worse place than it was 10 or 20 years ago, then your head is up your arse.

[citation required]

btw no it can't be construed as racism, scots and english people aren't races of people, never mind separate races.

[shouldn't be hard]

Maybe just sectarian then.
Thats illegal too (in places) 🙂

[citation still required]
[the multiple of butthurt is not evidence]

Probably more just bawbaggery.

Joe, I can tell you from first hand experience that STW views Scottish as a race and ban people for making jokes on the specific ground of racism. Silly I know but that's the case

A lot of peoples views on race are ridiculous tbh.

dear seosamh77
We have many citation spaces available for hire in YOUR area!
[ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ]*
*citation space still available for hire.

Can be used freely for direct quotes or real evidence.

NB Not to be used for "the feels" or poems of despair and loss.

Still waiting on those details explaining the intricacies of the GERS figures, beyond the vague blocks, so we can have a conversation about them.

Maybe those who think that things are better under the SNP could list some of the legislation passed since the beginning of the current Scottish Parliament. Where doubtless they are using their new powers for the benefit of Scottish people?

As you will know, none have passed yet, seven are currently going through the system and we are still only in the first year of this session. You, like some others on here, probably seen a headline berating the fact none had passed yet (despite 2016 as a whole being a bumper year for bills going through)and jumped on this soundbite despite the record of the previous parliament session introducing and passing all the main bills they pledged they would.

Handily they even make all this info easy to find so it's easy to check. Stick to getting your information via headlines though if it suits you.

http://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/Bills/576.aspx

teamhurtmore - Member

Joe, I can tell you from first hand experience that STW views Scottish as a race and ban people for making jokes on the specific ground of racism. Silly I know but that's the case

Maybe if you kept your sneering xenophobic jibes to yourself then you wouldn't out yourself as someone to be banned then. Or I suppose it's just 'bants'.

You are a very angry wee man km

@km that's a fair enough point, I was trying to remember the special word for a small burn (river)

The whole picture with regard to the EU has changed as a result of the brexit vote very much in Scotlands favour

@seaso we'll have to disagree here, I think Brexit has scuppered Indy as the EU transition is now impossible, UK will be out before Scotland can even start the UK exit process.

Nothing about me is angry, sorry if that disappoints you. If wee man is a reference to physical stature then nope sorry again, if you are saying I am of little significance or importance then knock yourself out. Unlike you I don't make a hobby out of pretending I am.

Very

seosamh77
I'll leave aside your "feels" based personal comments for now (tho I'd still love a citation for my hatred).

Re: GERS details you asked for.
GERS isn't the spending.
Its the Scottish Governments own figures reflecting the size of the Scottish economy.
Thats the money we would have raised in taxes etc. if Scotland was independent right now.
(It bears repeating that those saying that 10Bn has been stolen or hidden or missed off in some underhand way should talk to Nic about her stats department.)

The graph I asked people to choose bits to chop off is public spending.

Its not my job to provide you with a detailed breakdown of what the spending involves, but it should suffice to say that the wee drop at the top of the graph (in 12-13 13-14 14-15) is austerity.

We know the pain and anguish that caused.

Austerity looks (from the graph) to have led to a drop of 2Bn (70.4 to 68.4) over 6 or 8 years.

Independence would lead to a potential drop in that graph of 10Bn in 1 year

Unless you are really a wizzard, I don't think the detailed breakdown will help with cutting that mount of public spending (schools, hospitals, social care and welfare) with out a lot of pain.

Greekonomics if you like.

Thats why the economic argument "was always mince and is now toast".
(and yes I did just quote myself, because I liked it the first time :0)

Which is where I came in.

For the record I live in Scotland, I love Scotland and [most] Scottish people.
I hate divisive politics based on big lies (including brexit) and thats what the SNP are selling as well.

I'll ask it again.

How big would the economic hit have to be for the SNP to say "hold on lets look at this again in a few years"

Theres a day job to do and they're not doing it.

ETP are you making the mistake of thinking that economics and how you pay for things is important ?

Maybe..... sorry 🙁

Can I have a flag now that I've confessed 🙂

Saltire or Lion?

You lucky you haven't had the Chief jumping up down yet. Still months to go before you get added to the list 😉

So is the Westminster govt incompetent or is it using creative accounting again to disguise oil income?

For a start I don't think you're comparing apples with apples, UK and Norway waters may share a boundary but that certainly doesn't mean the oil production volume and costs are the same. I'm certainly no expert but I would imagine there is a production cost difference due to the differing nature and maturity of the fields across the north sea, and I'm fairly sure they produce more than us as well as having the biggest fields.

Secondly I'm not sure why the suggestion of some kind of government conspiracy or smoke and mirrors, the o&g industry here freely publishes their facts and opinions through many outlets, it's not north korea. You have a very odd understanding of the world.

Interestingly there are only 20 roads and 2 railway lines that cross the England-Scotland border, should be easy enough to control/manage.

bigjim - Member
...Secondly I'm not sure why the suggestion of some kind of government conspiracy or smoke and mirrors, the o&g industry here freely publishes their facts and opinions through many outlets, it's not north korea. You have a very odd understanding of the world.

b r - Member
Interestingly there are only 20 roads and 2 railway lines that cross the England-Scotland border, should be easy enough to control/manage.

Shouldn't be a problem. It's not as if we are likely to turn back refugees from England.

JAMBA

@seaso we'll have to disagree here, I think Brexit has scuppered Indy as the EU transition is now impossible, UK will be out before Scotland can even start the UK exit process.

Quite the wrong way round. Brexit gives an opportunity in that if Scotland declares independence between the triggering of a50 and rUK leaving the EU its much easier and more likely that the EU will find a suitable fudge for Scotland to remain in. This hems Sturgeon in making her choice of when to hold a referendum so its both an opportunity and a curse for her

tjagain - Member
...This hems Sturgeon in making her choice of when to hold a referendum so its both an opportunity and a curse for her

She's definitely keeping her powder dry.

[i]This hems Sturgeon in making her choice of when to hold a referendum so its both an opportunity and a curse for her [/I]

Not sure about hemming her in, read the Daily Mash story and it could easily be her plan, especially as there will be NO good news with Brexit - even Jamba admits it'll take years before/if anything good occurs. So she'll always be on the front foot.

If May gets a good deal (if) and the EZ falls apart (when not if) - what then?

The EZ that is so crucial* to Scotland's future unlike the nasty rUK* will look very different then

(* not true obviously)

TJ I don't see that happenjng at all. It will take years for Scotland to extricate itself from the UK - I really see no fast track option. I just can't see how a not yet independent Scotland can somehow remain in the EU when its not yet out of the UK.

eat_the_pudding - Member

What is your argument here though, you are stating that on day 1 scotland will have dubious finances, no one is disagreeing. I accept that. (brings the question back to specifics, if you want to get into it)

If we need to take an initial hit, bring it, we'll deal with it, I'm not pretending it's going to be all roses.

How big would the economic hit have to be for the SNP to say "hold on lets look at this again in a few years"

I've said many times, I'd rather wait. But simple fact is, there's only going to be one more chance at this. When it comes, I'll take it.

[quote=seosamh77 ]What is your argument here though, you are stating that on day 1 scotland will have dubious finances, no one is disagreeing. I accept that. (brings the question back to specifics, if you want to get into it)
If we need to take an initial hit, bring it, we'll deal with it, I'm not pretending it's going to be all roses.

I'm still not sure all of you saying "we'll deal with it" appreciate just how much it will be like what you put on the roses to make them grow better. That is a huge hole in the finances.

Though more significantly there appears to be some expectation that as if by magic you will fix this hole in the medium term by somehow managing to grow the economy at a far greater rate than any of the other little countries you like to compare yourselves with. There is an awful lot of wishful thinking involved in dismissing the financial problem.

In case it needs pointing out, nobody has yet provided any financial predictions showing how it will be all right without the oil money - all the budget forecasts last time included it as a fundamental part of the budget to enable successful independence. At some point if a second referendum is called then such budgets must be produced - what do you think they are going to look like?

aracer - Member
I'm still not sure all of you saying "we'll deal with it" appreciate just how much it will be like what you put on the roses to make them grow better. That is a huge hole in the finances....

No need to give Sturgeon the referendum at the moment.

Only give Sturgeon the referendum when EU bureaucratic system has been completely broken into pieces not before.

😛

[quote=epicyclo ]Many other countries have managed it. So will we.

Examples of managing a similar situation...

(that's exactly the sort of trite response I'm referring to - heavy on hope, light on any real thought into how you will manage)

aracer - Member
seosamh77 » What is your argument here though, you are stating that on day 1 scotland will have dubious finances, no one is disagreeing. I accept that. (brings the question back to specifics, if you want to get into it)
If we need to take an initial hit, bring it, we'll deal with it, I'm not pretending it's going to be all roses.
I'm still not sure all of you saying "we'll deal with it" appreciate just how much it will be like what you put on the roses to make them grow better. That is a huge hole in the finances.

Though more significantly there appears to be some expectation that as if by magic you will fix this hole in the medium term by somehow managing to grow the economy at a far greater rate than any of the other little countries you like to compare yourselves with. There is an awful lot of wishful thinking involved in dismissing the financial problem.

In case it needs pointing out, nobody has yet provided any financial predictions showing how it will be all right without the oil money - all the budget forecasts last time included it as a fundamental part of the budget to enable successful independence. At some point if a second referendum is called then such budgets must be produced - what do you think they are going to look like?

aracer - Member
epicyclo » Many other countries have managed it. So will we.
Examples of managing a similar situation...

(that's exactly the sort of trite response I'm referring to - heavy on hope, light on any real thought into how you will manage)