When are the votes? Id it tomorrow or am I totally wrong?
In a galaxy far, far way as the country falls apart and The Express demand tax cuts...
Meanwhile, back to reality the FT are pointing out that pretty much any economist that's a real, well, economist says that further cuts to finance tax cuts are just madness...
Still, your average Express reader that likes to complain about the NHS will of course, never join the dots.
The tax and spend system is being played in the most ridiculous way, all to our detriment. No party really spending, and cuts that will do nothing. Welcome to no growth and poor services. (Whereas the USA went on a stimulus and spending spree and are enjoying chunky growth. 3-4% growth the Tories can only dream of.)
We shortly find out if our economy slipped into recession with a second neg Q4.
Very close, and either way we are probably still in massive flatline territory. But don't underestimate the political capital to be made of this either way.
There you go. We're in a recession.
The Tories have just crushed another one of their favourite metrics.
Q4 shrank 0.3%
These total idiots. No growth without spending you absolute fools.
Looking forward to Tories talking this one up. Every metric that sits on top of a neoliberal economy requires a source of new money creation to work. Well done everyone involved. Your tax cuts will do little to save you.
The non-governmental sector requires a public sector deficit to expand. Lack of growth shows not enough is being spent.
Tories will probably say its an expected mild dip. And we're on track etc.
https://twitter.com/DEhnts/status/1758030477439439024?t=6q7UKTHWXEE7-hQyST3bBA&s=19
Looking forward to Tories talking this one up.
They already prepared the ground months ago:
Inflation in the Thatcherite favourite metric, even at the cost of mass unemployment and austerity.
Inflation in the Thatcherite favourite metric, even at the cost of mass unemployment and austerity.
Other than it could easily prove sticky now as CPI remained at 4%.
The fact they expect it to go to 2% is bizarre anyway. And not supported -like a lot of these indicators by any solid ground work.
It's bad news for the Tories.
The fact they expect it to go to 2% is bizarre anyway.
Rishi Sunak was clever enough to declare that his aim was to half inflation, not the Bank of England target, so he has already claimed victory over that.
https://www.politico.eu/article/boost-rishi-sunak-fall-uk-inflation-rate-meet-key-pledge/
Rishi Sunak declares victory as fall in UK inflation rate meets his pledge
If he wants to "stop the boats", he could just publicise the latest economics data abroad....
So the BoE target which is set by the Government is now no longer relevent?
And we all know it was nothing to do with Tories that inflation halved.
Also the use of the term 'technical recession ' is total bollocks to minimise the news impact.
It was pretty obvious back in the autumn that things were going to get worse for the Tories this year.
Do we really think the Tories are going to call an election in the middle of recession news? Be interesting that one.
nil/zilch/zero/nought/zip growth for 21 months aint a great look, that's Brexit Baby!
nil/zilch/zero/nought/zip growth for 21 months aint a great look, that’s Brexit Baby!
Well partly but we've been on a decline for years other than when GDP was pushed up with health spending in the pandemic.
Lack of government investment is the absolute reason. Exports are a cost to resources in real terms even if they do add to GDP.
Lots of layers here.
Didn't I hear a Tory saying we had to cut public spending to bring down inflation.
Didn’t I hear a Tory saying we had to cut public spending to bring down inflation.
It's the Thatcherite way. Although ironically Thatcher increased public spending - mass unemployment costs a lot of money. Which is why North Sea oil revenues and selling off public assets was so useful to her.
To be fair though before the international banking crisis Gordon Brown had developed an obsession with public sector pay rises allegedly fueling inflation. New Labour had a similar preoccupation with inflation.
they missed a trick though let me fix it for them 😕
It’s the Thatcherite way. Although ironically Thatcher increased public spending – mass unemployment costs a lot of money
Thats the problem with thatcherism that eventually you run out of taxpayers assets to sell off cheap and the bills come due for those you are renting back.
It's an absolute economic shitshow for Labour coming in. As usual.
Rishi Sunak was clever enough to declare that his aim was to half inflation, not the Bank of England target, so he has already claimed victory over that.
Has anyone in the media actually asked him what measures he took to achieve this amazing feat? Because it's basically sod all to do with him.
I think you'll find your mistaken.
If inflation goes up, this is entirely due to factors outside the governments control
If inflation goes down, it is because of bold (yet undefined) actions taken by the Rishi
I hope thats cleared things up
Is the only plan left to hang on long enough that the ‘left’ implodes in a fit of self-loathing, navel gazing, and theyp can scrape enough seats to tempt the Lib Dem’s again with a promise of a few ministerial perks…
Well, and to court the hard right fruitloops so they withdraw their candidates in key seats. Running out of time to brown-nose Farage and Tice though for this election though. Those two may be playing a longer game which eventually gives them control of the Conservative Party itself, as Farage has found that it's virtually impossible to become an MP just standing for a separate RW party.
There you go. We’re in a recession.
It's worse than that. Two quarters of contraction in real GDP terms but GDP per person has dropped every quarter since 2022 Q1. 7 consecutive quarters of drops in GDP per person (which is basically "living standards"), the longest unbroken run of contraction since records began in 1955.
Well done Tories!
I'd be interested to know how much of an impact the HS2 cancellation has had - you can't just knock colossal infrastructure projects out of the sky like that without severe impacts on the entire pipeline of operations (plus the related impact on supporting projects, regeneration that was predicated on having a nice fast train line connecting it).
BBC seems to be at great pains to say that it's not a problem.
But the whole point of having a technical definition for recession is that it only gets triggered when there is sustained GDP shrinkage. So when it meets those criteria it's worthy of note.
Phew its only a mild start to the recession. That sounds positively cheerful so top points to the beeb for lessening that embarrassing fact for the tories on election day.
A question which springs to mind is does the mildness of the start have any relation to how bad the recession ends up being.
tempt the Lib Dem’s again with a promise of a few ministerial perks
As has been pointed out previously, any LD coalition has to be signed off by the membership, who are largely more centre-left than the centre-right leadership. I suspect the majority would crawl all the way to Mars over broken glass to vote against a coalition with the Tories, and a requirement of any coalition with Lab would be serious constitutional reform.
Don't forget too that the Tories are much further right than they were in 2010 and frankly they are out of potential coalition partners.
Phew its only a mild start to the recession.
To misquote Hemmingway:
How did you become bankrupt? "Slowly at first..."
Is the only plan left to hang on long enough that the ‘left’ implodes in a fit of self-loathing, navel gazing, and theyp can scrape enough seats to tempt the Lib Dem’s again with a promise of a few ministerial perks…
Tory HQ clearly following the Starmer thread then....
When I read that about the "mildest start to a recession" I thought they were referring to the fact it's 12C outside in mid Feb.
Elephant? What elephant?
Don’t forget too that the Tories are much further right than they were in 2010 and frankly they are out of potential coalition partners.
In what way are the Tories "much further" to the right now than they were in 2010?
Presumably not in economic terms as in 2010 the Tories were totally committed to austerity with a cruel and callous disregard for the devastation it caused the fabric of society, and all the of the thousands of deaths attributed to it.
Edit: And not on health and social care either:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/mar/20/health-bill-failure-conservative-politics
Edit2: Nor on housing
Their right wing level is the same, they just don't bother trying to hide the shittiest part of of it anymore as they realised they didn't need to.
I think I might agree with that ^^.
The only difference is probably presentation. David Cameron appears to have had the ability to convince some people that he was some sort of Tory moderate, despite the extreme right-wing and warmongering policies of his government.
David Cameron appears to have had the ability to convince some people that he was some sort of Tory moderate
What you mean is... his coalition government was a moderated Tory government (thanks to the LibDems)... since we the electorate punished the LibDems for that... we've had Tory government without anyone moderating them... so what you see now is you what you get if you vote Tory again. No excuses.
What you mean is… his coalition government was a moderated Tory government (thanks to the LibDems)…
No I don't think that his coalition government was a moderated Tory government. Presumably you do though (thanks to the LibDems) What policies do you think were moderated? Certainly not austerity, the bedroom tax, and the health and social care bill.
Edit: Btw the claim was made that "the Tories are much further right than they were in 2010", so my question was in what way? Not whether the LibDems had any moderating effect on them. You seem to agree that they were at least as right-wing in 2010.
The Tories seem to want us to believe that it was their plan all along to have the UK economy in recession in the run-up to a general election. The decision not to go to the polls in Autumn, when all the signs were that this was coming, is looking more and more like a stroke of genius.
Yup, the Chancellor appointed by Liz Truss - who had to face the "anti-growth coalition" has never considered growth to be a priority. Apparently.
looks like the tories have thrown in the towel!
The Conservative Party says it "fought robust campaigns on the ground" in both Kingswood and Wellingborough with their local candidates but adds that "these by-elections were always going to be hard".
"The Government of the day rarely win by-elections," the Tories said in a statement released at the close of polls.
They must know what’s coming then? They must have seen the exit polls
That’ll be an 18,000 and an 11,000 majority they’ve lost then
It’ll be fun watching whichever sacrificial idiot gets sent out tomorrow morning to try and spin this
My money is on Grant Schapps. He’s the usual mug called on to defend the indefensible. Laura Trott is another candidate but is so unbelievably dense, I doubt she’ll be getting another crack at it
Some Daily Telegraph Tory Party mouthpiece is on QT right now saying that Rishi basically repeat Liz Trusses tax cutting budget as that went so well last time
Would anyone bet against that idiot doing it next month?
The Tories seem to want us to believe that it was their plan all along to have the UK economy in recession in the run-up to a general election.
I guess it has the advantage that your opponents arent going to have thought to plan for you doing it deliberately.
Same on Newsnight… forgettable MP/minister telling us that tax cuts and spending cuts will give us growth.
I suppose if everyone knows that those spending cuts will never come, because they’re scheduled to happen after the Tories have handed over the shit covered baton to others, then they might not have a negative effect? 🤷🏻♂️
wouldn't they need to pull the same trick as last time i.e. not asking the OBR to run the numbers. that ended well.
No I don’t think that his coalition government was a moderated Tory government.
The Tories got worse after the coalition, though that doesn’t mean the coalition was noticeably moderated
not asking the OBR to run the numbers
The OBR wouldn’t be able to run the numbers on the spending cuts, because they wouldn’t have to be detailed in an election “give away” budget… that would be in a spending review that could be timed to be post election…
of course they could, the cost of the give away would have to be made up from either borrowing, cuts or better tax receipts.. they model this shit endlessly it's their job to forecast.
My money is on Grant Schapps. He’s the usual mug called on to defend the indefensible.
He's been promoted, so the worst duties now fall to Chris Philp, Richard Holden and Mel Stride.
If the Tories feel very confident that they will lose the next general election, and I can't think of any reason why they might not, it would certainly make sense for them to announce tax cuts in a March budget and call for a general election for May 2sd.
Not only would it likely create inflationary pressures for an incoming Labour government but it would also apply pressure on Starmer to introduce austerity/public spending measures, which in turn would likely turn a "mild" recession into a more severe one.
I really struggle to see Starmer reversing Tory tax cuts.
I can imagine that senior Tories are currently already planning what they will do when they win the 2029 general election.
They’re salting the earth. This budget will be worse than Mad Lizzies. I think you’re underestimating the meltdown in the Tory party following a massive electoral loss.
Just look at them now. They all absolutely despise each other. Throw in an electoral drubbing and it’s open season. Like rats in a sack!
Despite becoming UKIP, they can’t take any voters away from Reform.
An electoral loss will see the few remaining moderates left and a March towards trump style nationalist populism under a fruitloop like Badenoch or Braverman
think you’re underestimating the meltdown in the Tory party following a massive electoral loss.
Just look at them now. They all absolutely despise each other. Throw in an electoral drubbing and it’s open season. Like rats in a sack!
I am not under any illusions with the regards to the crisis facing the Tory Party, and I totally agree with you that the very deep divisions will, especially in the event of a massive defeat, have them at each others throats after the next general election.
I was offering a possible scenario into the current Tory mindset. Tax cuts now would leave a lot of baggage for Starmer to deal with, and don't underestimate what Starmer will inherit (unlike Tony Blair in 1997 when he inherited a growing economy)
The Tories best hope is that Prime Minister Starmer will badly screw up, which imo is not an unrealistic expectation - especially if Starmer is hamstrung by the Tories's economic narrative.
But the Tories ability to recover from a 2024 electoral drubbing will also depend on how big that drubbing is, as it will among other things reflect their credibility in the eyes of the electorate. A 50 seat Labour majority would not represent a particularly serious challenge for them imo. A 250 seat Labour majority would cause them such a serious crisis that imo I could see them splitting into two parties, one gravitating around Nigel Farage.
Time for Labour to adopt MMT?
In other news, L win Kingswood; Reform vote was greater than the winning margin.
The swing, if repeated in Wellingborough, will not be enough.
No room for complacency.
But the Tories ability to recover from a 2024 electoral drubbing will also depend on how big that drubbing is, as it will among other things reflect their credibility in the eyes of the electorate. A 50 seat Labour majority would not represent a particularly serious challenge for them imo. A 250 seat Labour majority would cause them such a serious crisis that imo I could see them splitting into two parties, one gravitating around Nigel Farage.
I see drastic swings becoming the norm.
With both parties reading from the same hymn sheet things are not going to get any better for people. Any expected improvements under a Labour government are not going to materialise so people will gravitate to the Badenoch/Braverman led Tory party promising to solve the country's problems by reintroducing workhouses and bringing back hanging.
Which will then also fail and so we get whatever flavour of Tory-lite the Labour party has become at the following election.
Rinse and repeat.
Wellingborough taken as well. Rees-Mogg blames low turnout, by elections don't mean anything, Sunak is a solid leader.
Time for Labour to adopt MMT?
We are already doing MMT. But politicans and economists add a mythical layer of restriction to it.
MMT describes the current system. The fact that idiotic MPs use terms like max out-the-credit-card - is the issue. Fiscal rules being another absurd fantasy. That's an MP simply imposing a fabricated constraint.
If you want to look at a country that has got it roughly correct then look at the USA. It's goverment stimulus/spend has created big growth. If half of these UK economists went where the evidence was then we could solve a lot of problems.
Our leaders can keep looking at a declining economy for a long time until MPs take a long hard look at the mechanics of our spending system.
But the Tories ability to recover from a 2024 electoral drubbing will also depend on how big that drubbing is, as it will among other things reflect their credibility in the eyes of the electorate. A 50 seat Labour majority would not represent a particularly serious challenge for them imo. A 250 seat Labour majority would cause them such a serious crisis that imo I could see them splitting into two parties, one gravitating around Nigel Farage.
There's been a significant swing towards Reform in both seats. Lib Dems have been reduced to a very distant 4th. That big increase of votes to Reform has got to have the Tories going "hmm, so if we were a bit more like Farage...."
That big increase of votes to Reform has got to have the Tories going “hmm, so if we were a bit more like Farage…."
You're not wrong.
From the BBC after last night:
Mr Rees-Mogg said the Tories needed to focus on appealing to voters who had turned to Reform, adding that there was "a lot of common ground" between the two parties.
That big increase of votes to Reform has got to have the Tories going “hmm, so if we were a bit more like Farage…
according to yougov, who've looked into this, only about 1/3td of the reform vote is taken from the Tories
& back when UKIP were a thing they got 20% in Wellingborough against Bone who's one of the most brexity MPs ever. Theres a good reason Reform put up their deputy leader there and however they spin it, they'll have been hoping for better numbers.
on sky last night one of the tory pundits suggested anything under 15% was a bad result for them as they canvassed Wellingborough really hard and the previous UKIP vote share.
canvassed Wellingborough really hard
Not only there but across the constituency line in Corby too! 😀
they were out and about in Irthlingborough (Corby) too according to Sky 😕
I can see the Tories wanting to do a deal with Reform and/or parachute Farage into a seat.
Not sure I read too much into the results, given turnout was so low, shy Tories won't have bothered. But interesting if it pushes the Tories further to the right as a reaction, exposing how desperate they have become.
I can see the Tories wanting to do a deal with Reform and/or parachute Farage into a seat.
I'm not sure Farage would join the Tories, even with the promise of a supposedly safe seat. Reform is his little baby, he can grift away quite happily on that for years, he doesn't need to win. Plus he's tried to win elections before and never come anywhere close, he lost to a man dressed as a dolphin!
A win for Farage is not him being an MP - it's him failing to win a seat and then sniping away from the sidelines and rinsing donors for cash. He's just a useful idiot for the likes of Trump folk in America and Putin folk in Russia. Much the same way that Leave was never supposed to win, it was supposed to be a way of sowing a bit of discontent and then not having to do anything. Farage would be utterly lost if he actually had to do anything.
And the only deal to do with Reform would be to ask their candidates not to stand in seats the Tories still think they can cling onto. But at the moment, Reform must be looking at the sinking ship SS Tory and hoping to add a few more holes to it themselves.
I am sure ( as sure as you can be in politics) there will be a reform / tory deal to stand down in tory seats. Reform is not a political party, its a pressure group and getting a couple of key aims in the tory manifesto and preve4nting a labour majority would be big wins for them. the last thing reform want is a strong labour government
The lower turnout and swing in Kingswood may be influenced by boundary changes: the constituency disappears at the next election.
Reform vote was greater than the winning margin.
Always going to be extreme voters at every election.
Always going to be extreme voters at every election.
Would PR encourage them or expose them - probably best on another thread though.
But interesting if it pushes the Tories further to the right as a reaction, exposing how desperate they have become.
Probably because of the loons in charge.
The question though is how many of those tories who stayed home did so because of the tories trying and failing to appeal to Farage ltd.
With the follow up does chasing them mean some of those voting tory yesterday stay home at the AE.
Reform vote was greater than the winning margin.
Sunak has appeared for a bit of damage limitation
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68277176
challenging circumstances, work to do, delivering for the people.
blah ****ing blah
Not sure I read too much into the results, given turnout was so low, shy Tories won’t have bothered.
Well the low turnout is an extremely important aspect of the by-election results imo.
So far the Tories have lost 10 by-elections in the current parliament, a new postwar record. Yesterday's low by-election turnouts were apparently in line with other by-election turnouts in this parliament.
When combined with the high level of "don't knows" in opinion polls in recent times it is clear that one of the greatest electoral issues facing the Tories is their voters staying at home.
Which should emphasis to them the importance of holding the general election on a warm spring day, with possibly a sunny evening, on the same day that their supporters will be going to the polling stations to vote for their local councillors, rather than on a cold dark windy autumn day.
Yesterday's by-elections provides more evidence that Tory voters can't be arsed. Given how unpopular the current Tory government is I doubt that the same amount of Labour voters stayed at home. When combined with the votes the Tories are hemorrhaging to Reform UK the stay-at-home Tories could give Labour a mind-boggling majority on election day.
the last thing reform want is a strong labour government
Why, what negative effect would it have on them? A weak Labour government will hugely help the Tories. Reform UK need a weak and discredited Tory Party to thrive and grow.
The only reason the Brexit Party helped the Tories win in 2019 was because like a lot of people they weren't convinced that under Corbyn the UK would leave the EU. Especially as Keir Starmer was Shadow Brexit Minister and Labour were committed to a second referendum.
The other obvious difference with 2019 for Nigel Farage is that in 2019 Labour was offering something significant different to the status quo.
That polling does not show what would happen if the tories pick on on key Reform demands / policies
No but this article does:
It will simply benefit Reform UK, not the Tories.
I'll assume it's interesting reading Ernie but you need to log-in to read it - can you summarise?
I thought about this recently, as much as I'd like to see the Tories wiped out in the election, the prospect of the ReformTroopers having lots of seats is scary too. Then I realised that we've just had Reform Lite in power for the last 6-7 years. As each year has gone by, the Lite bit has reduced significantly. Are Reform now more centrist than the Tories?