this happened at the end of PMQs too
https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1755231625728684159?t=2W7IVnKcHAe67xDli1NVnQ&s=19
^^ Hadn't seen that.
Sunak scuttling off like the little rat he is.
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1755859473392894317?t=Oh-pKW8uWpWH5zjdOQlPqg&s=19
theres no way they'll go for a May election with an these numbers
. electoral calculus says that's a 390 seat majority for labour 😳
even with the noise there's a definite steady decline in the tory support in that graph ^.
Apparently No10 is telling MPs to space out their 'Im standing down to spend more time with my non exec directorship / gbnews family' announcements so it doesn't look like a flood.
another reason a May election looks unlikely, they'll need to get new candidates in place
less than a week until the next 2 byelections , that could trigger more of them, too.
theres no way they’ll go for a May election with an these numbers
They have to go at some point. Nothing is going to 'turn up' to improve things for Sunak, at least not economically. Their turnout is likely to be best in May.
theres no way they’ll go for a May election with an these numbers
How do you think waiting until autumn will help?
A general election after a March budget seems plausible.
What that graph shows is that Labour support is fairly stable whilst support for Reform UK has been steadily increasing over a very long period of time, at the expense of support for the Tories. There is no evidence to suggest that support for Reform UK will have fallen by autumn.
They have to go at some point. Nothing is going to ‘turn up’ to improve things for Sunak, at least not economically. Their turnout is likely to be best in May.
Interest rates being cut - is the only reason they would probably keep putting it back.
Truss me - they be willing to make a song and dance of arms length policy control when rates drop. Not clear at the moment to be fair. But March was favourite to be a pivot but that's got less likely recently because central banks are very muddled. ... And the USA is doing incredibly well with high interest rates but we have different debt make up on mortgages. (Shorter terms.)
Look at the S&P - all time high. Plenty of people making a lot of money currently.
Anyway these leaders hang on and hang on would be my take. So I'd be surprised if it was May.
I thought last autumn but I just think they keep hoping someone will pop up.
Irrespective expect Sunak to sell any drop as interest rates as Tory success. Yawn.
The Tories having more or less just twice the support of Reform must be a absolute shocker to Tory HQ. Hobson's choice for them right now. Call an election now, just rip the plaster off, hope to regroup for 5 years time, or stick with a later election and hope that maybe something will come along but risk Reform closing the gap even further...
The Tories having more or less just twice the support of Reform must be a absolute shocker to Tory HQ
And in the background lurks Farage, hinting of a return to Reform. I bet Rishi wakes up screaming in the middle of the night at the thought of that
Did anyone watch QT last night. Old banana-head James Daly got well and truly owned by....
*checks notes*
Paddy McGuinness
https://twitter.com/MichaelTakeMP/status/1755883458415525957?s=20
And in the background lurks Farage, hinting of a return to Reform
Hint at a return?
Its his and Tices company. Its just he doesnt want to stand probably because he doesnt want to lose 8 times in a GE and it works better for him to be able to travel around grafting rather than having to campaign heavily in just one location.
He spent time with/talking to the troop and I’m not there to ask some questions to make him squirm!
Does he ever do his day job?
Seems to spend all his time hanging out for photoshoots for an hour or so before helicoptering off to the next photoshoot.
Truss me – they be willing to make a song and dance of arms length policy control when rates drop.
You've been Trussed already. Wasn't pleasant.
Weapons grade dimwit Laura Trott was on top form on Radio 4. Have a listen to this and marvel that this woman is actually the Chief Secretary to the Treasury. She can't even read a graph or understand basic maths and seems to have zero grasp on her brief. As thick as mince.
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1755662826826297615?s=20
That is just incredible.
So Sunak is critiquing local authorities attempts to get themselves out of financial strife despite being one of the architects of their doom
Weapons grade hypocrisy
They don't have a hope of getting out of this. May will be better for them, the oldies might come out to vote if the weather is nice. The irony of moving further to the right is it's legitimised far right extremism, completely alienated the centrists in the middle (please lets not have another debate about centrists being extremists) and driven their own far right nut jobs to reform. It's hilarious except the country is borked for the next 10 years either way.
@binners - that car crash interview is better in video form
And yes, Laura is a numerically challenged
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-68250372
please lets not have another debate about centrists being extremists
There's nothing to debate, everyone knows that centrists are right-wingers who are too embarrassed to admit to being right-wing.
Generally speaking left-wingers are perfectly at ease with being described as left-wing, in contrast right-wingers unsurprisingly would rather not admit to their political leanings.
That Laura Trott video - if only that level of scrutiny had been more broadly applied across the last ten years...
More time to salt the earth and get legislation through that benefits their donors/mates/future employers.
Like what? The only thing they'll be doing of any substance between now and the election is the budget and maybe shipping a few Syrians off to Rwanda. Besides they take most of the summer off so nothing will happen between May and September.
Well there is plenty of scope in a budget for earth salting, e.g. tax cuts that we can’t afford.
The budget is in March, so what would the advantage be in waiting til September to hold an election?
The budget is in March, so what would the advantage be in waiting til September to hold an election?
Hasn't Hunt hinted at another budget in the autumn? I'm sure that was reported a couple of days back?
One of the things they are looking at is pressuring councils to sell off buildings and other assets.
And that's going to happen before September? They can't even send a few immigrants to Rwanda let alone conduct a firesale of hundreds of millions of pounds worth of delapidated council buildings.
There is a slight difference between selling off assets and sending refugees to Rwanda.
The councils have been having to sell stuff off cheap for the last few years and now are down to the stuff which will look really nice on some property developers mantelshelf alongside the framed invite to the tory party charity dinners.
How do you think waiting until autumn will help?
A general election after a March budget seems plausible.
Im pretty sure the numbers will look worse for Sunak in the autumn
but theres the slimmest of chances that a miracle will happen or that the economy will pick up
its a gamble
if they have an election now, theyll almost certainly lose big, theres very little time for a miracle turnaround
if they have one in the autumn theyll almost certainly lose big, theres a bit more time for that turnaround & they get another 8 months in power
as much as we'd all like them gone asap they can chose to be wiped out in the spring or the autumn
I predict they'll cling on for as long as they can
unless Sunak just gets so bored he decides to fk off to California early
they get another 8 months in power
Where've you got the extra 3-4 months from? The earliest it'll be is May coinciding with the council elections. If in the Autumn it's almost certainly not going to be after October, so that's a maximum of 5 months.
Well you say Tory MPs want rid of Rishi, but I think we need to congratulate Johnny Mercer on absolutely world-beating brown-nosing to his boss. Truly toe-curling!
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerUK/status/1755867787749167125?s=20
I'm not sure what 'tough times' Lil Rishi has been through during his supremely cosseted and privileged life
The october date is debatable since that kicks off campaigning during the normal party conference season hence the suggestion it was going to be early November.
Although on the scorched earth approach there was the report about the tories thinking about October precisely because it would mean the money normally raised during conference season would be reduced which is likely to damage the other parties more.
I’m not sure what ‘tough times’ Lil Rishi has been through during his supremely cosseted and privileged life
There was that day his swimming pool heating went off.
Maybe his helicopter was delayed recently?
Feels like he's got the BBC into election mode already. Last night's six bulletin led with 'Kier Starmer U-turn' with no mention of all the dozens of failed/abandoned policies from the actual government, and had the trans joke row framed via Sunak's rebuttal as the third item.
I sense the dead hand of Robbie Gibb and McAndrew getting ready to deliver some very uneven coverage in the run-up to May. The likes of Kuenssberg are already in the bag, and I'm not confident Chris Mason can resist some serious editorial pressure in the coming months.
Once again it's left to regional news and radio to try to hold the PM to account.
https://twitter.com/_chrislockyer/status/1755874510480298107
The earliest it’ll be is May coinciding with the council elections.
Yeah that's the clincher imo - the local elections. One of the Tories very worse and frankly realistic fears is that their voters will stay at home in droves. Piggybacking the GE onto the local elections means that their voters are more likely to get off their arses.
Also in May Spring is in full swing with long days and people generally more cheerful with an optimistic attitude knowing that Summer is coming.
October/November have much shorter days and can be cold and wet, and leaving it so late sounds more desperate and lacking confidence, which won't help.
Every other political party and all the media are working on the basis that the election is going to be in May
Its apparently the worst kept secret in Westminster
Last night’s six bulletin led with ‘Kier Starmer U-turn’ with no mention of all the dozens of failed/abandoned policies from the actual government
I am fairly sure that Keir Starmer's spectacular U-turn yesterday on a much vaunted flagship policy represented a worthy news story.
But where's the "news" element concerning failed Tory government policies? When something develops concerning for example the Rwanda fiasco it clearly gets reported.
It's certainly a news story, but I'd question the prominence and treatment of it. It's a u-turn by the opposition party at the end of the day, not the government.
The way the Trans Joke story was handled certainly got my alarm bells ringing. It was pure 'both sides', although only one side had made trans policy into a joke and screamed their heads off laughing while Brianna's mum was in the building.
the starmer u-turns were newsworthy, they are them nailing down a manifesto in case there is a spring election
do the Tories have any sort of manifesto? what would be in it- rwanda, leaving ECHR, death penalty referendum, tax cuts?
lots of very contentious issues and im not sure they've resolved any of those yet, but theyd surely have to start now
I would imagine that the entire Tory election manifesto will focus on attacking Starmer.
I don't think the Tories will need any help banging on how Starmer cannot be trusted, and how he will say anything to get elected and then simply ditch all his "pledges".
FFS he's carrying out U-turns before even winning the general election! The Tories have plenty to go on.
But this is what the Tories are likely to be focusing on:
The fact that he can't be trusted and constantly changes his mind they are already highlighting because it is too difficult to ignore.
But the negative attacks based on his time as DPP will be kept for the actual election campaign. It could have quite a profound effect on the final result IMO.
@ernielynch - when was the last time Labour were elected and then did not try to deliver their manifesto? The Tories frequently do it but I can't remember Labour doing it.
I'd love it if they got in with a landslide margin and then Starmer slipped off his mask and rolled out some decent Labour policies of old
The Tories frequently do it but I can’t remember Labour doing it.
It's been a long time since we've had a Labour government. There were plenty of u-turns, from the 10p tax rate to calling an EU referendum.
But the negative attacks based on his time as DPP will be kept for the actual election campaign. It could have quite a profound effect on the final result IMO.
I don't think most voters will care about his time in DPP in all honesty, for good or bad. Linking it to his competence as a potential PM will be a tough sell when the current PM is an "ex" banker.
Hugely wealthy bankers almost self generate loathing, particularly when people are feeling poorer. Those involved in the complex and opaque system of public prosecutions, not so much. It's too remote and just not relevant to most people unless they are at the sharp end of it.
If the Tories make this a presidential campaign I'd be a lot more concerned if I were Sunak rather than Starmer.
Infrastructure upgrade for heated swimming pool, green card, his missus benefiting financially from some government policies, writing off billions in fraudulent covid payment claims, eat out to help out...
That's just the few I remember. Yep, make it an American presidential campaign I say. 👍
Labour know full well this is going to be a dirty election against a party with no regard for morals at the best of times. I'm confident they know they will have to get into the gutter in this fight too. There is too much at stake to play nicely.
I don’t think most voters will care about his time in DPP in all honesty, for good or bad
Did you read link? If not I would recommend you have a look. It focuses on how Starmer has made a big thing about his time as DPP in an attempt to convince people that he is reliable and will get important things done.
The article also emphasis how some close to him are very concerned that it will backfire with the Tories using the negative aspects of his time as DPP as a weapon.
Did you read link?
I genuinely did before I posted.
Labour will already know most of what the Tory attacks will be on Starmer as the "Tory pollster Lord Ashcroft" literally wrote a book for them.
I still contend that when most people think of Starmer or Sunak, the prosecutor and the banker, the banker isn't likely to fair well. There is still a lot of animosity towards Bankers from the financial crisis. They weren't much liked even before then. Add in the huge wealth, the heated pool, green card, no GP registration, etc etc and he's swimming against the tide.
If any of Starmer's work at the DPP is questionable I still don't see it cutting through to people anywhere near as much as a hugely wealthy banker lecturing them on tightening their belts.
People dont lay awake at night worrying about Starmer heading a department years ago that wrongly convicted a guy that joked about a bombing. Perhaps they should but most wont. They do lie awake at night worrying about their bills, not being able to see a doctor or the fact their children never have the same maths teacher for more than 2 lessons at a time though.
The DPP stuff doesn't effect enough people to concern them, it's theoretical in their minds, bills and all the other things hit them in the face day after day.
I do also wonder what dirt is waiting to be dug up, or already has, about Sunak. There will be some dodgy if lawful dealings somewhere in his work history. It's genetic, he can't help it, he's a banker.
All that said, we are both just making our own guesses and generalisations here and I don't do the perma argument thing (well, Ling thread excluded!😁) that the political threads are prone to.
I do value your opinion but on this occasion I think it might be wrong but who knows till election day?
"He was 1 of the MPs who voted to reduce capital gains tax."
Nigal Lawson equalised income and capital gains tax on the grounds of fairness. A move that was reversed by Gordon Brown.
"The UK has not always had this discrepancy between income and capital gains tax rates. Capital gains tax was first introduced in 1965. In 1988 Nigel Lawson aligned capital gains tax rates with income tax rates, stating that the contrast between income and capital gains rates is ‘hard to justify’, and this remained the case until Gordon Brown lowered capital gains tax rates to a flat 18% in 2008 while income tax rates were 20% and 40% below and above £34,800 respectively."
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/what-sunaks-tax-return-tells-us-about-the-uk-tax-system/
Wonder if Labour will increase capital gains tax after the election?
gobuchulFree Member
If it’s going to be May won’t they have announce it in the next few weeks?
I think it's 5 weeks after dissolution of parliament and a debate is needed first so 6 weeks minimum?
with Easter in the way , mid March at the latest to be ready in time for the locals
I'm very much with Poops on the (ir)relevance of Starmer's tenure as DPP.
That would be true whether or not lil' rish! is a former banker - or should that be parasite?
No doubt the tories will attempt to weaponise decisions taken by the CPS when Starmer was DPP.
What proportion of the electorate know - or care - what the CPS and DPP are?
The fact that Starmer bangs on about his time as DPP is also irrelevant as too few people are listening to him - or any other politician.
The line about Sunak getting rich by betting against the UK during the financial crisis gives you a flavour of what he can expect during a General Election campaign.
I hear that the tetchy one is going on the road for three days a week from now onwards to 'connect with the public'. So basically his GE campaign has started already. Probably going into war mode is the only way to hang on to his position.
What proportion of the electorate know – or care – what the CPS and DPP are?
I think most people who vote are fully aware what the Crown Prosecution Service is. Why wouldn't they be? Failures of prosecutions and general criticism of the British judicial system are bog standard daily tabloid fodder.
But do they care? Well I suspect Starmer thinks that law and order is certainly an area of concern for voters, quote:
"As Director of Public Prosecutions, I led a criminal justice system that prosecuted criminals and protected victims of crime. I know what it takes to get things done to make our country a safer and better place, reversing the rise in violent crime and anti-social behaviour we have seen in recent years."
And I am sure that the Tory press will do their best to guarantee that their readers care as much as possible about leftie lawyers and politicians sticking up for criminals and terrorists.
Of course it might be a miscalculation on the part the Tories and it won't influence any voters at all, Perhaps any prosecution failures or examples of being soft on criminals under Starmer's tenure will simply be shrugged off, and the worries of those in his team will be proven to have been unfounded. Who knows?
You give far too much credit to the 'great british public' in assuming they have much knowledge/awareness of or interest in the CPS.
As for CPS and judicial failures being bog standard daily tabloid fodder, yeah right; they are not.
Even if they were, sales and readership of all newsprint media - tabloids, broadsheets, berliner formats, magazines - are at historic lows and continuing to decline.
Don't assume that your - or my - interest in and knowledge of politics is representative of the wider public.
It isn't.
I hear that the tetchy one is going on the road for three days a week from now onwards to ‘connect with the public’.
I wont lie, that could be very entertaining. Sunak has an issue as does Starmer... with smiling/ laughing.
What, you say?
Well, Starmer doesn't smile/laugh much which leads to the "boring" comments but you know, most people dont care too much about that, they had their fill with Boris.
Now Sunak, when he laughs, which he does a fair amount, he has an *amazing* ability to make it look like a condescending sneer... or he laughs at a totally inappropriate moment. Now that's down right damaging during campaigning on the streets. The last thing people want to see is a cock sure "billionaire banker" laughing and joking *at them* (in their eyes) as the country burns. Add in the fact he really has trouble controlling his temper when pushed and there could be some awful campaigning ahead for him.
None of that means Starmer won't have a bacon sandwich moment but I feel Sunak will, erm, out bacon him.
You give far too much credit to the ‘great british public’ in assuming they have much knowledge/awareness of or interest in the CPS.
A huge chunk of news reporting relies on crime and the legal process. It's up to you if you want to dismiss the importance of that to the average voter.
Crime and how to deal with it seems to be the one subject which everyone has an opinion on.
Walk into a pub and try to strike up a conversation with the punters about crime and law and order and see if their reaction is to shrug their shoulders and say "sorry mate, don't know anything about that".
You're welcome to your opinion.
I totally disagree with you.
Nice try to attempt changing the focus away from the relevance/importance of Starmer's tenure as DPP in the election campaign to the average voter.
It's upto you if you want to place undue importance on the relevance of media reporting of crime and legal process to the average punter.
The average punter may have a view about crime but, take it from, they don't give a flying huck about Starmer having been DPP or his performance in that role.
I think most people who vote are fully aware what the Crown Prosecution Service is. Why wouldn’t they be?
Because they don't care and/or are not interested in it. I will use my litmus test of my mum and sister who are very average voters (i.e. they know **** all about anything and don't do politics yet still vote) and see if they can tell me what the CPS is. I won't even bother with DPP as that really is a non starter.
You’re welcome to your opinion.
I totally disagree with you.
Thanks but I don't have a strong opinion on the matter, my comment was based on a Sky News report. They claim that it will be used as an attack line by the Tories during the election campaign and that some close to Starmer are worried about the damage it might do.
You apparently totally disagree and let's hope you are right and they are wrong. But I think it is probably safe to say that there hasn't been a single general election campaign in the last 50 years when the Tories haven't attacked Labour for being soft on crime, so I am not convinced that this coming general election will be any different - especially when the Leader of the Labour party is a former DDP.
The Tories do win an awful lot of general elections, you might have noticed, which suggests that they understand Labour's perceived weakness, and presumably why in the 1997 general election Labour felt it was important to have the "tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime" slogan.
But I can see that STW's usual misplaced sense of superiority over voters, who are invariably dismissed as stupid and ignorant, is an issue here so probably best left there.
But I can see that STW’s usual misplaced sense of superiority over voters, who are invariably dismissed as stupid and ignorant, is an issue here so probably best left there.
That's rich coming from someone who displays the same attitude to most posters on any political thread
😆
Edit: do not come back at me with you're offended crap. You kick harder than most on here
You’re average voter thinks CPS is something to do with the Coop and are not quite sure which side of the political division in Northern Ireland the DPP sit on. Are they affiliated with those bomby Shin Feign people or the Queen loving bunch?
I love it.
🙃
Edit: do not come back at me with you’re offended crap. You kick harder than most on here
I am never offended, I have never even hit the report button. I have no idea where you have got that from.
And yes I do kick hard. I also know that the ability to have a sensible discussion on a political thread ceases when we get to the "voters are stupid and ignorant" point.
Ironically it is a STW attitude which is probably shared with many Tory politicians.
Because using the "voters are stupid and ignorant" explanation betrays a fundamental lack of understanding. Or a cop out by people who can't expand their argument any further.