When’s the election again?
a very very long time away- over a year at the earliest
theyll hope inflation will have halved by then,
i suppose the vote collapse in their 'safe' seats is why they are so desperately going full culture war on the immigration thing
between now & then i imagine they can do a lot of damage and stuff the lords with as more cronies as possible
When’s the election again?
Jan 2025 is the latest possible IIRC
Hang on, Kier! Starmer! already has his own thread title with exclamation marks - will he get a new one or will we reduce, re-use and recycle?
We'll need a new leader of the oppo thread surely 🙂
some more details of that poll ^^
It is a wonderful scenario, and I would be ecstatic if it happened on general election day, but I fear that whilst it might be what people are saying right now come election day the Tories will get significantly more than 24%.
There is a section of the electorate that will always only ever support the Tories, no matter what the circumstances, that minority represents more 24% imo.
Some Tory supporters might be staying schtum concerning how they will vote on the day but it doesn't mean that they won't be voting.
I reckon the obvious attempt by the Tories to turn the next general election into a culture war battle is a desperate attempt by them to hang on to their core voters and agitate them to go and vote.
Some diehard Tory voters might well feel disillusioned with the present shower but many are likely to stay at home rather than vote for another party. Getting them angry about leftie lawyers is likely to encourage them to get off their arses
I would tend to agree Ernie. The "shy tory" is a real factor in polling and their base appears to be around 30% - but weirder things have happened. Canadian conservatives got went from ruling to being wiped out IIRC and look what happened to labour in Scotland. politics is more volatile now
I wonder if the polling companies know all that Ernie?
It does beg the question who’s going the be next! pm! thread title. 😕 Could Boris weasel his way into one of the 90 ?
The leadership campaign is well underway already. It’s between Cruella and Kimi Badenoch. They’re both upping the ante on far right fruitloopery. It’s going to be ironic, to say the least, to watch 2 immigrant, women of colour slogging it out, after the upcoming electoral wipeout, to be leader of a party that has effectively become The National Front. It’s clear neither of them do irony
It’s between Cruella and Kimi Badenoch. They’re both upping the ante on far right fruitloopery<span style="text-align: center;">m</span>
<span style="text-align: center;"> My money is on Badenoch </span>
The leadership campaign is well underway already. It’s between Cruella and Kimi Badenoch. They’re both upping the ante on far right fruitloopery. It’s going to be ironic, to say the least, to watch 2 immigrant, women of colour slogging it out, after the upcoming electoral wipeout, to be leader of a party that has effectively become The National Front. It’s clear neither of them do irony
A bit like I remind my aged Uncle who voted for Brexit because of all those folk "not from here" (he was referring to Asians, not Poles) that he's replaced whites with non-whites and we've Sunak as PM.
A bit like I remind my aged Uncle who voted for Brexit because of all those folk “not from here” (he was referring to Asians, not Poles) that he’s replaced whites with non-whites and we’ve Sunak as PM.
To be fair the brexiteers were promising to replace the European migrants with non-European ones.
Well some of them were.
<p style="text-align: left;">To be fair the brexiteers were promising to replace the European migrants with non-European ones.
Well some of them were.</p>
thats not the message most received
this was the reality of the campaign
I wonder if the polling companies know all that Ernie?
Obviously they do, the shy Tory factor is a known phenomenon :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor
At least one pollster, Opinium, has recently changed its methodology in an attempt to deal with the issue.
Which is why Labour leads are consistently smaller in Opinium surveys than other pollsters. Currently most pollsters give Labour a 20% or more lead over the Tories, in contrast the very latest Opinium poll gives Labour a 14% lead:
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1687901984701960192
I expect that the shy Tory factor will become less obvious as we approach election day and people become more prepared to nail their colours to the mast. So the final opinion polls are unlikely to be widely inaccurate.
I don't do crystal ball gazing but if I had to guess it is reasonable imo to say that the Tories won't get less than 30% in the next general election.
As I keep saying, I don't believe that the Tories have ever received less than 30% in any general election in the last 200 years (although not necessarily as a unified party - possibly in alliance with unionists)
And I think it is reasonable to expect Labour to get probably somewhere between 40-45%
The latest poll gives Labour their largest lead over the Tories since mid-July.
It's time for Sunak to ramp up the culture war I fear.
Obviously it doesn't appear to be making any difference but what else can the Tories do?
Nobody is buying their increasingly nasty ‘policies’ because I think pretty much everyone can smell the utter desperation of it all.
Everything they announce barely lasts 5 minutes before the whole thing collapses under the weight of its own unworkable stupidity and incompetence, then they just double down and keep digging.
This is absolutely on the money by Raffael Behr in yesterdays Guardian
Policy that can’t work and laws written purely for campaign slogans are clear symptoms of a moribund regime
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1689164850469986305?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
Nobody is buying their increasingly nasty ‘policies’
Some people do, My nan, who passed away in January this year voted for Brexit.
Athough to be fair to her, over the last year or two she expressed remorse saying that she shouldn't have really voted as she'd started to see what a shit show it all was.
And she'd be long gone when the bad effects really start to kick in, her words, not mine.
Even on her deathbed in a carehome, she kept remarking 'how peculiar' it was that there were so many foreign doctors and nurses.
This was during one of the medical strikes last winter when we were flitting between care home and hospital as she kept getting discharged only for the care home to get her blue lighted back to hospital a day or two later, round and round we went.
I miss her dearly, more than I will say, but if you'll forgive my gallows humour, it's safe to say that's one less voter gullible to the extreme right that won't be voting any more.
Nobody is buying their increasingly nasty ‘policies’ because I think pretty much everyone can smell the utter desperation of it all.
And they aren't actually doing anything. Inflation is up, mortgages are up, disposable income is down - these things are always going to result in a change of government. Most people recognise that these things need fixing, not immigrants.
Another on-point article by Marina Hyde on our absentee government
https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1691693718879735945?s=20
Meanwhile 30p Lee struggles to get his head around the most basic maths
https://twitter.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1691701068210561075?s=20
Another fine day in the sunlit uplands of Toryland
Meanwhile 30p Lee struggles to get his head around the most basic maths
I'm struggling too, although I won't deny that I am rubbish at maths. What has he got wrong? Wages are now rising faster than inflation, just about, presumably this means that on average the purchasing power of wage earners is currently increasing slightly?
What surprises me is that a Tory politician should be celebrating wages increasing faster than inflation. I can't help thinking that someone might want to have a word with him, as a Tory government tries to denounce public sector wage demands above the rate of inflation.
Past inflation when wages weren't rising means an absolute loss in puchasing power. The fact that the rate of increase in prices has slowed and some wages are catching up doesn't mean that people have not taken a massive real terms pay cut. For example, a mate who is single was telling me his patterns of expenditure have not changed at all but a year ago he was generally left with £400 in his account at the end of the month. Now he is left with nothing.
No, current wage growth higher than the rate of inflation won't of course suddenly reverse months/years of falling purchasing power.
But the maths behind the claim that wage growth above the rate of inflation means "more money in your pocket" seems reasonable correct to me, even if in reality it means bugger all to most people due years of falling living standards and a cost of living crises.
What has he got wrong? Wages are now rising faster than inflation
We've just had 12-18 months in which inflation has significantly exceeded even the current level of wage growth, so while some people might start to keep pace from now on, it does not undo the deficit that has made people poorer over that period.
It's why junior doctors have correctly calculated they need a 35% rise to repair the cumulative damage. They have had year upon year in which their pay rises have been sub-inflationary, and lots of other people will be in this position.
You could also say that the current headline rate of inflation is a mid-summer snapshot, and we should expect energy prices to increase again in a few months' time, so even over the next 12 months, people's wages may not keep pace despite these figures.
This is probably as good as it gets for Rishi's 'targets', and I wouldn't be surprised if he goes to the voters before the winter hits and another chunk of middle England has to find a new mortgage deal.
And frozen tax allowances also mean that +95% of us are poorer even if wages had kept pace with inflation.
Ernie - check compound inflation vs your compound net wages (pick a year to start, 2010 maybe?) - are you better or worse off?
For example, a mate who is single was telling me his patterns of expenditure have not changed at all but a year ago he was generally left with £400 in his account at the end of the month. Now he is left with nothing.
Do you know me, Bill?
I used to be able to put money into my savings each month, but I haven't been able to for a few months now. This is after trimming back my spending. I've got naff all debt, a cheap mortgage, no student loans, and a decent job, and instead of being comfortable I'm having to watch my bank balance way more closely than before.
I'm moving from public sector to private in a few months and it'll be my first real world pay increase in 5 years.
Yep, 'more money in your pocket' now will still buy you less than it would 18 months ago. It's all smoke and mirrors and the BoE is now talking about more interest rate rises due to prices going up (ffs).
Don't forget that a lot of the general public have no idea about how inflation actually works, let alone stuff like compound interest etc or the effect of freezing tax rate boundaries. People only care about the money in their wage packet and the payments to get shiny things on the whole. It's why Lee Anderson's tweet will work, people just don't understand the the figures actually mean.
As for calling an early election? Not happening. They're too busy feathering their own nests for when they do get kicked out and probably also leaving a few 'presents' in the system for Labour that won't come out until 2025/6 so they can then blame Starmer for them.
But the maths behind the claim that wage growth above the rate of inflation means “more money in your pocket” seems reasonable correct to me, even if in reality it means bugger all to most people due years of falling living standards and a cost of living crises.
A good measure is 'real' wage growth taking into account nominal wage growth and inflation. Something like this but including July would do it;
I’m moving from public sector to private in a few months and it’ll be my first real world pay increase in 5 years.
*My first real world pay increase since hitting the top of my salary scale 5 years ago
Ernie – check compound inflation vs your compound net wages (pick a year to start, 2010 maybe?) – are you better or worse off?
I have already made that point;
in reality it means bugger all to most people due years of falling living standards and a cost of living crises.
BillMC
Full MemberYep, ‘more money in your pocket’ now will still buy you less than it would 18 months ago.
Yup. It's ALWAYS about selectign the time period to put a positive spin on things. Look on this today and you can make it a good news story. Look at the year long trend and it's obviously bad and the trends are where we actually live, not just on a single day.
See also: "Everything is fine because we are not in a recession" and "our economy outgrew the eurozone"
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1692974722147840207
to paraphrase Dirty Harry "your culture war ain't makin' it"
Bumped into Jake Berry's replacement (I hope) today, was quite illumninating to get an insiders view of labour and the current mess the Torys have left us with. Suffice to say depsite me ought to be a dyed in the wool conservative he'll be getting my vote (caveat i knew him before he got the Labour nomination, hes a passionate guy whos in it for the right reasons and not for his own glory, complete opposite to Jake the Snake, hes also a cyclist). Anyway how long do we have to wait for the election?
Too long.
I expect we’ve got 14-15 months of rudderless drift, while shouting about small boats and trans people, before the inevitable electoral wipeout
Even those around Sunak in number 10 must be wondering what the hell the point is of limping cluelessly on until then
...because 14-15 months of being shit in power is much more fun and lucrative than being excellent in opposition for 5 years.
Even those around Sunak in number 10 must be wondering what the hell the point is of limping cluelessly on until then
Big pay-offs and gold plated pensions, isn't it?
They are not in it to make the country better, they are in it to become very rich. See: nadine Dorries.
Also Labour... So closely aligned to the conservatives it makes no odds, it suits Labour to be plan B to the tories as they never have to actually do anything.
much more fun and lucrative than being excellent in opposition for 5 years.
It seems most of the country thinks in binary, as do the Labour party... the labour party is pro brexit, and anti human rights, just like the conservatives.
Other political parties are available, but are consistently poo-pooed becaouse 'no one would vote for them because they will never win'.
Self fulfilling prophecy or what?
Other political parties are available, but are consistently poo-pooed becaouse ‘no one would vote for them because they will never win’.
Yep a shit situation that only PR would get anywhere close to starting to fix. The Green Party policies would be better for a LOT of people in UK yet they still sit there at 7% and when it comes to election will probably still get 1 MP.
I think that is largely because those same people are not really looking at what the parties have as polices and approaches and just go with what they think are tory and Labour. While they are rightly keen to see the back of the tories (for 5 years until they have forgotten why) they are in for a surprise if they think Labour will be doing anything noticeably different for them.
They are not in it to make the country better, they are in it to become very rich.
Other political parties are available, but are consistently poo-pooed becaouse ‘no one would vote for them because they will never win’.
But you back the Liberal Democrats, how did it turn out when they were given a chance?
Did Nick Clegg back austerity because it made "the country better"?
And how is he doing these days working for a tax-avoiding company?
https://www.cityam.com/clegg-banks-10m-bonus-following-meta-promotion/
"According to Bloomberg, the former deputy prime minister raked in a stock package worth $12.3m (£9.4m), which comes on top of his annual salary at Facebook’s parent company."
Yep a shit situation that only PR would get anywhere close to starting to fix
There was something in the last couple of weeks suggesting Lab are finally starting to realise electoral reform is a necessity.
Still, until I see this as an actual manifesto commitment I won’t believe it.
There was something in the last couple of weeks suggesting Lab are finally starting to realise electoral reform is a necessity.
What was that?
Presumably it wasn't the latest seat predictions which suggests a 272 majority for Labour:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Support for electoral reform is massive within the Labour Party and has been for years, now the big trade unions back it, as do the majority of Labour voters.
Last year delegates at the Labour Party Conference backed a motion supporting proportional representation.
However it is highly unlikely that as PM Keir Starmer would back PR. He has already claimed that reforming the UK's antiquated electoral system isn't a priority for him.
The problem for Starmer is that PR would give a leg up to any new party which might be formed. He knows full well that his redefining of the Labour Party as a tory-lite party risks creating the need for another left-wing party which will challenge the current Tory narrative.
Starmer wants his redefined Labour Party to be the only alternative to the Tories. For that he needs to maintain the current two party/first-past-the-post status quo.
It doesn't mean that Starmer can't be forced to accept electoral reform, especially if Labour has a huge parliamentry majority, but no one should expect it to be easy.
Besides, I don't expect Starmer to last a full term as PM.
Sunak (& William) getting stick for not going to the WC final.
Thank god for that. At least he spared us the toe-curling embarrassment of this…
Or ‘Dave’ Cameron forgetting which team it was he actually supported - as Villa and West Ham have similar kits, so how is anyone supposed to know, really? It’s a mistake we all make. 🙄
Like any of them has ever watched a game of football before. How frightful?! There’s actually a rare degree of honesty in Rishi being straight that he can’t even be arsed pretending he cares
Sunak (& William) getting stick for not going to the WC final.
It's unlike Sunak to pass up some all-expenses paid flights!
Liz Truss managed it just fine.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/27/labour-condemns-waste-of-liz-truss-taking-private-jet-to-australia