I agree with that synopsis Ernie, if there was ever any doubt it vanished within hours of him becoming leader when he reappointed Braverman. He didn't have to do that and for those still in doubt, what about 30p Lee?
Maya Angelou once said, "when someone tells you they hate you, believe them"
There is no double bluff going on here, just a despicable fascist at the helm.
So Sunak's main claim that he'll halve inflation goes by the wayside again as its still stubbornly remaining above 10% and food price inflation is now 19.2%.
Other than crossing his fingers and hoping for the best, has he actually done anything at all about it?
Meanwhile I see Suella has been sent out today to throw a dead cat out there and declare a 'National Emergency' to deal with the 'small boats'
https://twitter.com/nazirafzal/status/1648599792493244416?s=20
Initially I thought that the appointment of Braverman was a bone thrown to the far right in the party but the way she has been allowed to carry on getting more and more extreme and to make racist statements without being sacked at some point says to me that Sunak agrees with her.
Whether he agrees with her or not is neither here nor there. He's too weak to do anything about her freelancing government policy on the hoof, as he knows that what she voices is the opinion of the majority of Tory MP's and pretty much all the Tory membership.
He’s too weak to do anything....
He is in a far stronger position than you give him credit for. There is no obvious leader-in-waiting loitering in the wings. And the very last thing the Tories need or want is yet another leader before the next general election, with all the turmoil that would entail.
Rishi Sunak position as leader is far more secure than that of the previous 3 Tory leaders.
Rishi Sunak is more popular with voters than the Tory Party is. Tory MPs are well aware of that.
So Sunak’s main claim that he’ll halve inflation goes by the wayside again as its still stubbornly remaining above 10% and food price inflation is now 19.2%.
He said that he would half it this year, it is still feasible that might happen although how much he would be personally responsible for that is highly debatable.
The latest figures show a slight fall in inflation and the pressures on food prices to keep rising will almost certainly ease, eg energy prices can't keep rising at the same rate indefinitely - eventually they will hit a ceiling.
He is in a far stronger position than you give him credit for. There is no obvious leader-in-waiting loitering in the wings.
I don't agree with you and I don't think Ms Braverman would agree with you about there being no leader-in-waiting. She's not waiting in the wings, her leadership bid has been ongoing for months
Anyway, if thats the case then TJ is right and Rishi agrees with Suella's racism so we're still where we are
Meanwhile inflation is still above 10% and food inflation is still 20% and the other stuff is just noise
The latest figures show a slight fall in inflation
0.3%?
Whoopde-****ingdoo! I'm sure we're all feeling much better for hearing that
pressures on food prices to keep rising will almost certainly ease, eg energy prices can’t keep rising at the same rate indefinitely – eventually they will hit a ceiling.
You keep saying that and so does Jeremy Hunt, but its still not happening, is it?
I don’t agree with you and I don’t think Ms Braverman would agree with you about there being no leader-in-waiting. She’s not waiting in the wings, her leadership bid has been ongoing for months
Well if you think Rishi Sunak is Suella Braverman's puppet because he fears a leadership bid from her go for that.
I can't see anything vaguely plausible in that argument though.
Whatevs. Its a moot point anyway, as either
a) Sunak fears a leadership bid from Braverman, so lets her make up policy on the hoof and he then simply nods it through
or
b) Sunak agrees with Braverman, so lets her make up policy on the hoof and he then simply nods it through
The end result is the same either way
You keep saying that...
I don't recall ever commenting on food prices.
0.3%?
Whoopde-****ingdoo! I’m sure we’re all feeling much better for hearing that
It will probably accelerate slightly and 0.5% per month will be close enough to the target of halving inflation by the end of the year.
0.3% might not seem much but it's more than the 0.1% fall in the EU average. UK inflation is almost identical to the EU average, if you take 0.2% to be insignificant.
Edit: It seems that bread and cereal price inflation reached a record high and that was a significant reason for food inflation. It would appear that climate change and the Ukraine war are the main driver for record high cereal prices.
Sunak fears a leadership bid from Braverman
??
Sunak is in a very safe position. The polls are closing quite rapidly and tory MP's depression has lifted with many of them thinking they're in with half a chance of keeping their seats. There's not a cat in hell's chance of a leadership challenge before the next election.
0.3% might not seem much but it’s more than the 0.1% fall in the EU average.
If you listen to some of the less hawkish economic commentators (Danny Blanchflower et al) inflation is going to plummet this year. The treasury probably agree otherwise Sunak wouldn't have nailed his colours to the mast by promising to halve it. The danger isn't that inflation is going to stay at 10%, it's that it's going to go negative when the BoE have successfully crashed the economy with their blinkered and reckless rate rises. Economically the next election isn't going to be about inflation, it's going to be about unemployment, bankruptcies, mortgage foreclosures, negative equity and unsustainable personal debt.
Sunak is in a very safe position. The polls are closing quite rapidly and tory MP’s depression has lifted with many of them thinking they’re in with half a chance of keeping their seats.
You mean like the very latest poll released today?
https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1648244320703528960
Cons down -6 on 4 weeks ago :/
If you want to play with figures from last month here's some more for you
https://politpro.eu/en/united-kingdom/polls/48843/deltapoll/2023-03-13
23% Labour lead.
economic commentators (Danny Blanchflower et al) inflation is going to plummet this year. The treasury probably agree otherwise Sunak wouldn’t have nailed his colours to the mast
They expected it fall below 10% this month
I also think there's a lot of naivety from their point of view, inflation dropping would be nice, but even 5% is still punishing when people are currently struggling to pay for their weekly shop
Sunak is far from safe
Those percentage polls are irrelevant really, we've a FPTP system and you need to know the percentages within each constituency or equivalent constituency.
Evidence? The Tories won an 80 seat majority in 2019 on 42% of the vote, with Labour at 40%...
They expected it fall below 10% this month
And last month.
And next month, but another economist has just been on radio four saying they expect it to go UP again in May and that the BoE will have no choice but to raise interest rates yet again. He also said that it will be late 2024 at the earliest before you'll see 5-6% inflation
So buckle up
They expected it fall below 10% this month
Agreed, the accuracy of economic forecasts isn't always precise, and it would be naive to assume they are.
But I don't think that 10.1% instead of 9.9% is wildly inaccurate.
It is also naive to attach too much importance to inflation imo. Latest figures show a huge drop in inflation in Russia, down to 3.5%, I am not sure we should be looking to Russia for inspiration though.
Sunak wants to focus on inflation but I would rather focus on the effect that Tory government policy has on ordinary working people. Low inflation is of little consequence if wages are even lower or services nonexistent.
I still believe that in all likelihood Labour will win the next general election, but mostly because of the fact that the Tories have ran out of ideas (not that Labour have any) Not because Sunak is a liability.
On the contrary, I believe that he is probably the best that they can manage. I reckon most Tory MPs are fully aware of that and for that reason Sunak's position as party leader is secure imo.
If you want to play with figures from last month here’s some more for you
it's not playing numbers it's a pollster whos numbers are all over the place
Sunak, at PMQs today, was promising to fix an awful lot of broken shit from - checks notes - 13 years of Tory government... 🙄
it’s not playing numbers it’s a pollster whos numbers are all over the place
Okay if it is the pollster that bothers you just refer to the poll of polls:
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/
Whichever way round you look at it the point remains the same - currently under Rishi Sunak Labour's lead over the Tories is slowly but significantly narrowing.
In sharp contrast with what occurred under Liz Truss's leadership. Which explains why her premiership lasted only 49 days and why Rishi Sunak's appears perfectly secure.
No one is talking about the possibility of the Tories replacing Sunak beyond the odd person on this thread.
"Sunak, at PMQs today, was promising to fix an awful lot of broken shit from – checks notes – 13 years of Tory government…"
I remember Rory Stewart saying that politicians are always promising to "fix things" and that fervour to fix things just results in destroying what was working.
It's the 'fixing' that f***s things up.
It will be nothing to do with him. And halving inflation is hardly a fabulous outcome - it just means we are getting poorer at a slightly reduced rate.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1648751793545814020?t=pgfuqzjekSUM4U81VS8ocg&s=19
Double ouch.
Big argument that Labour attack ads were counter-productive.
Perhaps voters agree with Rishi Sunak and don't think that paedophiles should go to prison?
Polling immediately after the attack ads showed a negative effect on Starmers ratings.
I don't mind at all the gloves off and attack him but those ones were clearly well over the top. there is plenty of real things to attack him with. Why invent nonsense?
there is plenty of real things to attack him with. Why invent nonsense?
Yup. It's as if they have taken the belief that they need to seize the centre ground, in other words get closer to the Tories, to a new level.
They apparently now want to get into the gutter with the Tories
It’s as if they have taken the belief that they need to seize the centre ground
Hmm, centre ground is strange thing to say, there's nothing centrist about two parties torturing the truth just far enough to avoid telling lies in a legal sense... and trying to score cheap points...
It's just childish.
It's the labour equivalent of the 'leave EU' big red bus.
"centre ground" they are fighting over is nowt like the political centre. Tories are right wing and moving further right, labour are centre right now.
Definitely TJ.
Years of not pushing back.
Centrism is misunderstood in this regard.
Hmm, centre ground is strange thing to say
It is bog-standard for right-wingers in the Labour Party, from Tony Blair to Keir Starmer, to be claiming the centre ground.
Lacking in the courage of their own convictions (Starmer spoke of "the moral case for socialism" when he stood for the leadership election) they prefer not to challenge the Tory narrative and instead offer themselves as politically close to Tory voters.
Convincing people to change their minds politically is hard, especially for something which you don't believe in yourself.
It is much easier to be honest to Tory voters with regards to the right-wing veiws which you share with them.
Rish! might be vulnerable if the local elections are terrible. If he can manage the fallout from them he's probably safe until the election, though he doesn't appear to be the most astute politician and seems to walk into traps laid for him (see the 'have you anything to declare' one from Labour about the child care) or some of his own making (like he thinks nobody has a camera or phone when he says he's divierted funds to his area etc.).
Inflation coming down to 5% this year will be touted as a victory for him and the Tories and somehow most voters will accept that and forget the 10%+ they've been struggling with for the previous 12+ months.
Surely even the raving loons in the party must realise Cruella isn't going to win them more seats come an election.
No doubt the local elections will be really bad for the Tories. The good news for Rishi Sunak is that everyone is expecting them to be really bad for the Tories.
And better still two days after the local elections, when everyone should be digesting the results, everyone will instead be focusing on the Coronation, the first one for 70 years.
I doubt that the Suella Braverman coup will kick into action.
Polling immediately after the attack ads showed a negative effect on Starmers ratings.
The shit ads will have played a part, but ultimately it’s the improved deal with the EU for NI, and the fact that most of the Tory parliamentary party supported the PM as regards that deal. That has played very well with the public… it looks like a bit of sense has prevailed for a change, and Sunak looks to have united his party (if you discount the last two nutters who used to be PM, and their close hangers on).
According to the Graunian Sunak is going to rewrite the law so that ECHR courts rulings can be ignored. That will not play wellwith anyone bar the rabid right wingers
Today the report on Raaaaaabs bullying is likely to come out - thats going to be bad for Sunak. Either he sacks him or he allows a known bully to be a minister
Today the report on Raaaaaabs bullying is likely to come out – thats going to be bad for Sunak. Either he sacks him or he allows a known bully to be a minister
Oh bless, what an optimistic view!
It'll be like every other report into Government wrongdoing, partygate etc. There'll be "lessons learnt" and "reviews to ensure this can never happen again" and naturally poor misunderstood Raaaab will only have been doing his best in incredibly challenging circumstances and I'm sure that the civil service will be called a bunch of woke snowflakes unable to cope with his extraordinary management skills...
And that's if the report is critical. It could completely exonerate him! Bullying?! Nope, didn't find any of that...
If he is exonerated or Sunak does nothing the civil servants are going to create one heck of a fuss / resign to force Sunaks hand.
If he is exonerated or Sunak does nothing the civil servants are going to create one heck of a fuss / resign to force Sunaks hand.
Yeah, like that'll work - not sure you missed him facing up to half the NHS on strike and calling their bluff...
So Sunak moves further to the right.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65331272
The home secretary is expected to be given the ability to ignore attempts by European judges to halt migrant deportations from the UK.
Is this just the prep for leaving ECHR?
So Sunak moves further to the right.
Only if you believe he wasn't there already.
All of this is posturing before the local elections
I expect similar publicity stunts on trans rights, lefty lawyers, the BBC etc etc in the run up to May the 4th.
After that they'll go very quiet as all their proposed schemes fall apart under the weight of reality
Im starting to wonder if the new voter ID laws will have a far bigger impact than any of these announcements though, could well be enough to save sunaks skin if the cons do better than predicted
Interestingly, Danny Kruger MP (BBC story above) is yet another 2nd generation immigrant with, what I would suggest are, quite extreme views.
Is this what they mean when folk talk about immigrants not following 'British Values'?
https://www.****/news/article-6231055/Immigrants-Britain-follow-UKs-values-Sajid-Javid-demands.html
"Mr Javid told Tory activists in Birmingham new arrivals needed to understand Britain was a 'liberal, democratic' country. "
All of this is posturing before the local elections
You are convinced that Rishi Sunak doesn't personally agree with any of these policies and that it is simply "posturing"?
Why? Based on your posting record it is unusual for you to be generous towards the character of Tory politicians, what makes Rishi Sunak different?
Is it the slick presentation?
A reminder that Labour need a big lead to gain a majority of seats at the national level, the Tories only a tiny one…
https://twitter.com/getprdone/status/1648018606393794632?s=21
…and voterID is likely to make any Labour lead in the polls a lower margin come voting day… the pollsters don’t know how to factor that in yet.
Maybe next time Starmer takes his gloves off in a campaign he can come up with something that might actually be of value to the voters.
The magnets of voting are pulling right-wingers back to their safe space.
Go even more right-wing Starmer? I mean short of doing an NHS fire-sale ...
I'd say he's is boxed in whilst the Tories appear to the electorate as restoring their version of normality. Clearly inflation is being let off the hook by Tory pockets who are happy to shop around.
I mean short of doing an NHS fire-sale …
Streeting - who take money from private health companies has said the solution tot he NHS woes is more privitisation
Yep.
I wonder whether there will be a move on the NHS at some point in the race to the bottom?
Fix or dismantle - it's got to happen at some point.
A reminder that Labour need a big lead to gain a majority of seats at the national level, the Tories only a tiny one…
Someone should definitely mention that to Labour. They seem to be doing their best to shed as many voters as possible.
If only there was some policy they could adopt that would mean an end to the FPTP democratic deficit...
You are convinced that Rishi Sunak doesn’t personally agree with any of these policies and that it is simply “posturing”?
Nope I think he's definitely right wing
Im just hugely sceptical that his plan for ignoring ECHR rulings will work! if it even gets past the Lord's.
I think he's well aware of this but knows he needs to bang that culture war drum pre-local elections.
The entire Rwanda scheme looks ridiculously hairbrained, I can't believe even braverman is dim enough to think it will work, but theyll happily see it fail if they can blame lefty lawyers etc , that might just be enough.
I can’t believe even braverman is dim enough to think it will work, but theyll happily see it fail if they can blame lefty lawyers etc , that might just be enough.
Yup its definitely preferable for it be blocked by those nasty leftie woke lawyers than have it fail because its a crap idea which wont succeed.
The best things in life are free…
https://twitter.com/oxygentrancecb/status/1648758313801199618?s=21
…if you’re a Tory.
Streeting – who take money from private health companies
he hasn't registered it as an interest then, last time I checked his donations page, there was nothing obvious. Not saying he doesn't but isn't that illegal?
…if you’re a Tory.
PE have been reporting on that for quite some time. Be nice it if got more headlines in the wider press.
Some pals seem to be doing very well out of the "free port" idea.
Maybe thats why they claimed the free ports werent possible in the EU. What they meant was giving them away from free wasnt.
The impetus for Labour’s ban on accepting donations from private companies interested in outsourcing NHS functions was a report that, in 2022, Wes Streeting accepted a £15,000 donation from hedge fund manager John Armitage. Mr Armitage’s fund owns shares worth more than half a billion dollars in UnitedHealth. UnitedHealth is America’s largest health insurer. It has spent millions of dollars lobbying US politicians against healthcare reform through seven different lobbying forms. This includes lobbying against the Affordable Insulin Now Act, which would guarantee supplies to insulin to diabetics who depend on it to survive. It is one of the largest profiteers from NHS outsourcing and one of the biggest potential beneficiaries of future privatisation.
Its not as obvious in the register of interests as it was - perhaps he dropped some under pressure or perhaps there are more disguised ones like this.
Disguised, I recognise the name of the individual donor, I was looking for companies. The sneaky bastid.
in 2022, Wes Streeting accepted a £15,000 donation from hedge fund manager John Armitage.
Always amazes me just how cheap these politicians are to buy!
There were others last time I looked as well
Always amazes me just how cheap these politicians are to buy!
What do you expect from someone who was the president of NUS and worked for PWC.
In fact it's probably what I would expect.
The private eye article about teeside Freeport is bonkers
Houchen on a smash & grab in case he gets voted out
On the news now that Sunak is "carefully considering" the Raab bullying report.
Is that news speak for "oh shit, how do we get out of this one?!" ??
I'm amazed the report hasn't been leaked yet
In fact it’s probably what I would expect.
For someone who worked for PWC I would expect a rather higher bill. Maybe that per hour.
It is the depressing thing how cheap they are. At least in most countries the owners have to pay enough that sometimes its actually worth not bribing someone.
Houchen on a smash & grab in case he gets voted out
That does him a discredit. PE has been covering it for a while now and its anything but a smash and grab.
More a slow careful boiling of a frog to get the maximum returns without being noticed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65336405
Dither and delay?!
How unlike the Tories to prevaricate...
It's got to be a pretty damning report for a delay like this; yet more barrel scraping for yet another cabinet reshuffle looming...
Well it looks like the penny is dropping with the Tories - despite all the posturing by the likes of Braverman as she preaches to the already converted whose only other option is to vote BNP. I.e. the less Brexity nutters in prominence, the better their chances of nicking a GE result next year. As those distribution-points-seats point above make clear, the Tories don't actually have to make up as much ground as you'd think.
+1 for dissonance.
No smash'n'grab; the Eye have been onto Houchen, his dodgy deals and grasping mates from the start.
How long before the kickbacks are exposed?
Reminds me of John Poulson and T Dan Smith - but on steroids.
as she preaches to the already converted whose only other option is to vote BNP.
That's a strange comment to make Danny, why the BNP?
The BNP only stood one solitary candidate in the whole of the UK last general election, it is far from certain that they will stand any more than that next general election.
I don't think Sunak/Braverman need worry about the BNP.
The Tories know that if they wobble from the nationalist path they have taken then a far right party could emerge in an instant. The Conservatives bleeding voters to UKIP was the reason they staged the credit referendum in the first place.
Post referendum, the Brexit party was established in a couple of days, forcing the government to go for a hard Brexit.
If the Tories are seen to soften then a new far right party could emerge in an instant, only this time it wouldn't be hiding behind great, it would be something more like the Front Nationale in France.
So ypire right when you say that the Tories have nothing to fear from the BNP, there will be a new party on the block, jist as nasty but with millions mpre supporters. They'll probably call themselves 'The New National Front"
Do you think they will have as many MPs as the NF, BNP, and UKIP, had?
When was the last time that a Tory parliamentary candidate was defeated by a far-right candidate?
I'm thinking Douglas Carswell in 2015, other than that I can't think of any.
The fear for the tories is not the far right taking seats, its that they could split the right wing vote letting labour in.
Edit - Farage threatening to do this caused the Tories to shift a long way to a hardest of hard brexit to stop him from standing candidates against the tories.
It's not a case of winning seats is it? Farage never won a seat despite trying 4 times, though UKIP achieved exactly what they intended, forcing the Tories to call a referendum.
Having won that referendum, Farage doubled down by creating the Brexit party to make sure that Brexit would be as sh*t as possible and once again he succeeded. Hever won a seat but the most successful and consequential politician of the decade.
Do you think all those voters (up to 4 million of them) are satisfied now that Brexit has happened? Or do you see a rump of electorate who could be lured to vote for a party selling an even harder form of nationalism?
Reform UK have stated that they will fight every parliamentary seat at the next general election. I am sure that they will not change their minds. Rishi Sunak cannot do anything to stop them.
Nigel Farage's priority in 2019 was to stop Jeremy Corbyn becoming PM, which is why his party didn't stand candidates in seats which were winnable for the Tories. I am sure that SKS becoming PM doesn't fill Farage with the same dread as JC did.
Farage never won a seat despite trying 4 times
I think you will find that Nigel Farage made 7 attempts to win a Westminster seat. And also that the Liberal Democrats called for an EU in-out referendum before UKIP did.
So it's the Liberal democrats who were to blame for Brexit!
Though I accept that the fact that Farage lost 7 times rather than 4 completely invalidates my point.
You win again Ernie..
Though I accept that the fact that Farage lost 7 times rather than 4 completely invalidates my point.
I reckon the fact that Farage failed 7 times to win a parliamentary seat somewhat undermines the narrative espoused by some with regards to his alleged huge personal electoral appeal.
It should be remembered that as UKIP Party leader Farage was in the position to choose to stand in whatever consistency anywhere in the UK that he fancied.
Yet the man portrayed by some as having massive voter appeal never managed to win a single seat. And certainly not through lack of trying.
I haven't read the report, obviously, but the report of Rishi reading the report is quite a good one