A chat at work got onto the topic of optimism vs pessimism as regards our future. Do the StW massive think
Humanity is on its way to a bright future full of hover boards and piles of sweets or a apocalyptic nightmare that might drag much of the natural world with us?
We need a quick pandemic to reset the system.
I doubt there will be a lovely cuddly future.
Apocalyptic fizzle..
Its easy to get obsessed with all the bad stuff that is happening around the world and there is a lot, and it is all that ever seems to get reported on in the media and what people love to whinge about, but generally the global trend is that people are living longer, living richer lives with more prospects and opportunities than ever before. We're heading towards a positive future if we don't let the issues of today threaten that.
There are always ups and down's along the way, but they'll get sorted and we'll crack on.
People love to reminisce about the 'olden days' but really things were not better in the olden days. Things have progressed, countries that were in poverty not so long ago are now out of poverty and developing.
The future is bright. If I had a time machine I'd definitely be going into the future and not into the past.
Dead or immortal... [url= http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html ]thanks to A.I.[/url]
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the 'future' will be a long, drawn out grind towards dystopia, with the occasional blip, during which things get worse quickly*, rather that slowly**.
(*days/weeks)
(**years/decades)
see also Fermi's Paradox...
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I think each generation likes to see itself on the brink of some sort of existential doom. Its a way of dealing with our mortality. I mean if [i]I[/i] die how can the [i]world[/i] go on.
I think in reality humanity is remarkably resilient. I mean look at all the really shitty parts of the globe. Horrific wars, tremendous poverty. People hang on and exist and eventually prosper.
I don't think we have glittering citadels in the sky, an end to poverty and war or flying cars in our immediate future but I don't thing we are about to be wiped out by an apocalypse either
We're heading towards a positive future if we don't let the issues of today threaten that.
The biggest being population. That needs bringing under control quickly.
Dark and bright at the same time. Brilliant technology, space exploration yet earth facing massive environmental challenges and those living offworld facing the cold, lonely sterility of space and being pioneers.
I read somewhere that terraforming mars would cost us the same as offsetting climate change and we'd see the policy effects on roughly the same timescale. I think humanity is in to deep now, so we should go big or go home and try it.
Slowoldman. One of the population matters converts then? How do you propose to reduce human population on a quick enough timescale to meaningfully mitigate climate change? It would require a sudden massive drop (in the billions) this decade to have any significant impact on hitting the paris agreement targets.
The earth is ruled by humans now, its our time and thus ecological policies ahould be for the explicit benefit of mankind whether it is our survival or our happiness. There is no extrinsic value to keeping the place perfect.
Things will improve.
We're all connected, we've got access to any information we like in our pockets; we've got environmental legislation now; we have gay marriage; renewable energy percentage are on the up; etc etc.
It'll get better. The xenophobes will die out. As the brexit demographics showed, in 40 years' time we'll be in a better place.
We've been searching for signs of extraterrestrial life now for decades, and come up with nothing, despite the apparent abundance of stars with planets.
The obvious conclusion is that most intelligent life gets to a point where it is not clever enough to cope with itself, and wipes itself out.
There's no reason to imagine that we are an exception.
The biggest being population. That needs bringing under control quickly.
This.
How do you propose to reduce human population on a quick enough timescale to meaningfully mitigate climate change? It would require a sudden massive drop (in the billions) this decade to ha e any significant impact on hitting the paris agreement targets.
You already know the answer to this. Short of a plague or a nuclear holocaust it won't happen. However it's predicted that the earth can cope with up to 10bn people - in my lifetime it's gone from 4bn to nearly 7bn. All these 7bn use resources, be that higher environmental impact oil and consumer goods or purely water and food; whatever it may be, you can't tell me that this incredibly quick expansion, our thirst for consumer trinkets and our increasing reliance on fuels and other natural resources is not a problem.
Again, explain how population control would help us hit the paris agreement targets and give me numbers for the amount of people you want cut....
3rd population control
There needs to be a big cull
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The biggest being population. That needs bringing under control quickly.
easy, education and less poverty pretty much solves it
The obvious conclusion is that most intelligent life gets to a point where it is not clever enough to cope with itself, and wipes itself out.
Well not really. We've only found a few hundred planets, only a few might be Earth-like. So even if the odds of a Earth-like planet are thousands to one, there'd still be billions out there and we'd still not be expected to be looking at any. Even IF we could detect their radio signals.
Most likely reason they have not popped over to say hi is that faster-than-light travel is indeed not possible, so it is therefore just to bloody far.
I hope then, sincerely houns, that youre one of the ones culled in your Black Mirror fantasy.
"easy, education and less poverty pretty much solves"
Not quickly enough for a significant impact on the paris agreement.
for the rich
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for the majority of humanity
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4bn to nearly 7bn.
I've got bad news for you then. Current world population is 7.4bn
naaaah we're not doomed, StarTrek socialist republic will be the future for us. We just need to get rid of all oppression, religion, poverty and and inequality first... best get on.
I've got bad news for you then. Current world population is 7.4bn
You know what? I wasn't sure and wanted to play is safe. 🙂
(And yes, a quick search would have got me an answer)
Doesn't surprise me, does scare me.
All these 7bn use resources - be that impactful oil and consumer goods or purely water and food - but whatever it may be, you can't tell me that's not a problem.
It's a problem now because of the stupid way we use them. I went to a family member's 60th birthday this summer, along with about 100 other people. Everyone had a commemerative neoprene drinks holder to mark the occasion. What an utterly stupid waste of resources. McDonalds must make millions of worthless plastic toys just to sell kids burgers, fries and milkshakes - as if that was a difficult thing to do.
With unregulated markets, this is the kind of shite that happens. If we all actually paid attention and didn't waste so much, what we have would go a hell of a lot further.
Just think - millions of pounds are being spent by companies developing better cheaper ways to injection mould plastic to make the worthless plastic toys. If they were putting their time and effort into inventing desalination, or creating crops to grow in marginal areas, or some such - so many of the world's problems could be solved.
But no - we just want to be able to make money, and as long as that is the main driver without any oversight, the rich West will be enjoying our personalised drinks coolers, and the poor will be dying of malnutrition.
THAT kind of shit is our barrier - not population size.
as per the graffiti I spotted in East London on my commute a few weeks ago
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Apparently we've already hit "peak child" in most of the developed world...
Horrific wars, tremendous poverty. People hang on and exist and eventually prosper.
er, where's that then? Ethiopia? Somalia? India?
Maybe that worked in the dark ages, but that scenario isn't going to play now. It's doom all the way.
Citizen Molgrips for world leader!
Seriously though, you are right. The problem is our politics, our attitude towards resources, our attitude to development, our whole world view, is all based on short term thinking. If things are to improve we have to look beyond today and start thinking about tomorrow
"Peak child"
Didnt some NASA predictions a few years ago have human ferility dropping so rapidly that we manage to make ourselves extinct within a few centuries? Ill try to find the paper later.
Didnt some NASA predictions a few years ago have human ferility dropping so rapidly that we manage to make ourselves extinct within a few centuries? Ill try to find the paper later.
Oh I feel much happier now.
The way we destroy everything we touch I think it's time for a massive Virus to wipe us out and give this poor planet some breathing space.
We are heading towards a very ugly and messy end.
The biggest being population. That needs bringing under control quickly.
Yes population is the most significant issue, the global population is heading towards a level which is wholly unsustainable. Our efforts towards sustainability are totally misdirected, who cares about one more runway at Heathrow when the Chinese have built 30 new airports. Meat production is one of the biggest contributors to climate change etc. The world has proven totally unable to deal with this issue to bring it under control.
Eventually the billions of extra people will have insufficient to eat or drink, this will end very badly.
Slim seems to be becoming a thing of the past.
er, where's that then? Ethiopia? Somalia? India?
Ethopia is one of the most rapidly improving economies anywhere in the world, yes its starting from a very low base and still has lots of serious issues but it is improving.
India is the 2nd largest emerging economy in the world, there are still huge divisions across what is an immense and diverse nation but it is also improving
Somalia already has a stable and self governing region in the form of Somaliland which has seen rapidly improving living condition since it declared itself independent in 1991.
The Dark Ages in Europe lasted several hundred years, there is plenty of hope for all places on Earth to enjoy prosperity.
Bloody misanthropic hippies, **** the planet beyond our own selfish needs - our ancestors spent millenia falling victim to horrific attacks by predators, disease and famine - suffering that is unimaginable to you lot. The universe isnt some magical special place that is wonderfully good - that we owe thanks to - we never asked to be here. Its a dark, cold, inhospitable nightmare and it's our duty to our fellow man to make it our bitch.
And **** god whilst I'm at it - if he exists.
I thought the movie 'Elysium' nailed it pretty well, certainly the idea of a wealthy elite living out their days in gilded fortresses oblivious to the rest of humanity suffering below them.
I see some parallels with this and the current desire in the UK/US to 'build walls' and keep immigrants out etc. Basically not wanting to have to deal with the rest of the world's problems.
That said, I also think the wealthy elite are smart enough to give the masses what they want, so long as we have TVs, booze, lots of nice gadgets and (for most on here anyway) plentiful access to the outdoors, then frankly the 1% can have their Elysium 8)
I pondered similar earlier - after the news article that dementia is now the biggest killer of old people and that we're going to spend more on 'curing' it
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/14/dementia-becomes-britains-biggest-killer/
we need to accept that we weren't designed to live as long as we do, and that something has to be there to see us off.
I remember growing up in the 70's with the strikes, power cuts my dad was out on strike for so long we ended up using news paper for toilet paper at one point.
And I remember watching the news (as a kid)and thinking I'll never get a job with all these unemployed etc...
The only thing that worries me is the future generations relying too much on the tech something happening when they can't charge there batteries and they be ****ed!
The school kids today are so plugged into their phones I wonder in a generation or 2 if anyone will have any practical skills at all.
Will they be able to read a map, make a fire or cut wood up and make something!
Jamby.....oh no....teh Chinese want the same things you have.....ohhhh noooooes.
How do you intend to wipe out 2 Billion Chinese? Seeing as efforts to curb western consumption have failed so badly.
Face it, the New Scientist article is right....the population apocalypse is overhyped.
I genuinely hope for the sake of every other living thing on the planet that humans wipe themselves out.
Once I'm already dead mind.
population is expected to level off
we just have to become better at sharing
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I'm pretty sure i read 99% of species that have ever existed have gone extinct so it's quite likely even without this list I've copied off Wikipedia;
- global nuclear annihilation
- dysgenics
- overpopulation
- biological warfare
- accidental pandemic
- ecological collapse
- global warming
- advanced artificial intelligence
- biotechnology
- self-replicating nanobots.
If you could get put into a deep freeze sleep just now and be brought back to life in 1K, 2K whatever years time to see what it would be like, would you?
No going back mind. You would need to say your goodbyes etc.
I think I would.
There is a 14 yr old girl hoping to do just that ^^
No need for population control as Kimbers has said. It will naturally level out at 10bn BECAUSE the world is progressing and more and more people are coming out of poverty therefore having less kids.
There are always going to be specific concerns and problems around the world. 30 years ago it was the cold war where we were convinced we would all end up in a nuclear armageddon, but in actual fact it all worked out just fine and in the end all because of David Hasselhoff (who'd have guessed that) and now when we look back it was all an big exercise in muscle flexing and posturing and paranoia with neither side actually willing to press the button. And as dire as today's problems are, in 50 years time they'll be sorted, and sorted for the better and we'll look back on it and comment on how we were all predicting the end of the world.
So calm down and carry on. Don't believe me? You don't have to. I know it is very unpopular at the moment to point to experts who have actually looked at facts and drawn conclusions from facts, but here goes:-
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/nov/15/post-truth-named-word-of-the-year-by-oxford-dictionaries ]Sums up the year I think[/url]
It's easy to get dragged into a "festival of doom" mindset, but I am sure once the current fad for empowering stupid people is done with, things will pick up...
Even Stephen Hawkin believes the human race will be extinct within 1000 years.. ok, so that's quite a long time to kill ourselves to death. But he's not the only one to think that way.
Money can't buy immortality, it may prolong death, but death is the only outcome. Even advances in science and biometrics will only replace worn out bits. Money or power will never replace spirit, that's the only thing humans have, and that isn't strong enough I feel for humans to progress.
There are too many people here on this planet, we've been very lucky not have been blasted by an asteroid or radiation. But I think extinction will come from within, not from above. Humans have a propensity to kill or be killed, the flight or fight instinct in some is stronger than in others. We already have humans in places in society willing to be the first to poke the stick, we see it daily. Take away basic human needs and society fails, factions gather and with that we only need a despot or desperate power driven looney to provoke retaliation.
Sadly, we're doomed to fail, but I'll be long gone by then..thankfully.
If we're going to have a cull let's start with the useless eaters.
Urrghh. Perhaps not.
It's all BS anyway. The more I think about it we're all brains in a bucket somewhere Matrix style. Once we crack the human brain and can download ourselves onto an SD card and live our lives plugged into a Raspberry Pi then what's the point in having actual bodies and living an actual life? Consciousness is just how our minds experience and makes sense of all the senses that we're bombarded with therefore our bodies are nothing but transducers sensing the outside world so our brains can survive. Once we have the technology to transfer our conciseness onto an SD card then our bodies have no further use and we can all live together in a virtual world forever. Constantly living different lives over and over again.
This is all very possible and probably from a technology perspective, so who's to say it didn't happen long ago?
I look at people like Putin and Assad (I know that no government is completely squeaky clean), knowingly bombing innocent civilians and wonder how they are the same species as me? the answer is that they're just like the bosses of a level in a video game and the lives being lost are more like being re-booted and they'll be 're-incarnated' elsewhere in the matrix. It's the only way I can make sense of it anyway.
Wobbliscott- are you serious??
Wobbliscot - you should read the Altered Carbon trilogy by Richard Morgan. Covers some aspects of what you said, but with noir and violence added in!
As to the future
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100,000,000 bits of space junk floating around the earth..
Considering we've only been chucking stuff up there since the 50's, that's one helluva lotta crap we've just discarded.. but it's a human trait, we build, we ravage, we harvest, we shit, we throw away without a care.
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I miss Cressers
I'm sure that before long there's going to be a chuffing great rock drop into the middle of one of our oceans, or maybe Siberia, Tunguska being a dry run, or else the Yosemite super-volcano will finally come to the boil, and there'll be bugger-all we can do about it.
Then the cycle will start again, just another mass-extinction.
km79 - Member
If you could get put into a deep freeze sleep just now and be brought back to life in 1K, 2K whatever years time to see what it would be like, would you?
No
Either because some time in the not so distant future, the cryogenics Co will be bought by an interplanetary mining Corp who as back payment for your storage have you tied into a thousand year contract working on a rock the other side of Jupiter. Or you don't have a contract because you were certified dead hundreds of years ago and you're a non existant slave on a rock the other side of Jupiter...
Theres plenty of room for people, we just need to stop the congragating in a few areas. That'll buy is another 200 years then we need another planet or less people.
Fermi Paradox. The solution to which I propose is intelligent life eventually kills itself off either through war or man made disaster.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox
It's just a question of when...
We'll be extinct within 500 years, along with most of the other current species. We aren't going to stop climate change in time. The only question is whether it is bad enough to get completely out of control and end up like Venus, with no life possible, or whether some species can cling on.
I look at people like Putin and Assad (I know that no government is completely squeaky clean), knowingly bombing innocent civilians and wonder how they are the same species as me?
There's a quote which says 3 days without food and society will break down. I think the wheels could come off very quickly and people will absolutely kill each other for food and/or for access to water.
I think the wheels could come off very quickly and people will absolutely kill each other for food and/or for access to water.
Hence the population issue. More haves and have-nots.
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Waterworld?
nickc - Member
see also Fermi's Paradox...
There's also the idea that we might be in a simulation. If we ever get to the point where we can simulate a universe, we can be certain we are, because it's mathematically improbable we're at the top of the stack, so to speak.
In which case, the rest of the observable universe we're in might simply be decorative 😀
I might watch you dance a little longer before I press the off button.
I'm with Prof Cox.."we are clever but perhaps not clever enough to run a planet".
The human race definitely isn't smart enough to outrun what Planet Earth/The Universe is going to chuck at us.
If our selfishness doesn't cook the planet (and the resultant melt half drown the planet) then there's the next Ice Age to battle (don't they occur every 40-100k?).
Maybe when the antibiotic resistant superbug finally arrives the population cull might be enough to let the human race continue a while longer.
Don't all populations crash when they're unsustainable? And let's face it, our current western lifstylee is unsustainable in the long term (growth cannot exceed finite resources).
Where are all the aliens? Well, why assume there are civilisations out there more advanced that ours? We might be the oldest. Someone has to be.
Yep - I prefer the alien option.
Ones that look like 25yr old female Olympic volleyball players; who wipe out everybody on earth with their laser guns ... except the 5'8" white men with bald heads and bad knees, who they choose to breed with to repopulate the earth.
Ps.
They have the technology to reverse vasectomies too.
Where are all the aliens? Well, why assume there are civilisations out there more advanced that ours? We might be the oldest. Someone has to be.
we might be, it's a valid assumption. But: our star is pretty young as the universe goes, there should be civilisations that have been skidding round a star for billions more years than us. It might be that when civilisations get to the point where they can make WMD, they can't stop themselves using them...If we ever find bugs on another planet, then that pretty much confirms the idea that life is common, and we might just doomed to kill each other.
Outlook for the longevity of the human race - bleak at best though I won't pin a timescale on it.
Outlook for planet Earth - very good for the next 12 billion years, even allowing for the next million or so getting over the impact of the human race.
Where's the issue?
Our forecasts of the future oddly coincide with our personal outlook and personal politics.
We are barely capable of objective thought informed by verifiable data, especially, I might add, if this data is discomforting.
I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do, because I notice it always coincides with their own desires.-Susan B. Anthony