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[Closed] Probability / Odds / Death.

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The obvious STW answer is to get a 6" length of broom handle, clench it in your teeth, and dispense with anaesthesia.

I'm sure I've seen that in a Crimean War medical manual somewhere.


 
Posted : 08/09/2020 9:31 am
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The obvious STW answer is to get a 6″ length of broom handle, clench it in your teeth, and dispense with anaesthesia.

I’m sure I’ve seen that in a Crimean War medical manual somewhere.

Actually, the traditional way involved two pints of rum. One for the patient, one for the surgeon.


 
Posted : 08/09/2020 9:36 am
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It sounds to me that the surgeon wants to do the op under local and you've asked to have it done under a general due to the issues you mentioned. My guess would be that the casual use of the 20% stat is what she sees as being the easiest way to convince you to do the op under a local.

I'm not saying she's wrong to want to do it under a local, I'd assume that if that's her preference then there are reasons (maybe faster discharge time, improved outcomes, etc).


 
Posted : 08/09/2020 11:05 am
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She said

“The risk of dying from a Covid infection with a General Anaesthetic is one in five”.

That's still a nonsensical statement. I don't have a 20% chance of croaking from covid under general, mainly because I'm not planning on having a general. ( Or indeed any operation in the near future)
She needs to elaborate more on who she's talking about.

Is she saying that 20% of people who do have a general in the next X weeks are going to die?
If so I don't believe that either.

Or is she saying that 20% of people who have covid when they go under general will croak?

Etc


 
Posted : 08/09/2020 11:22 am
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I am an anaesthetist.

The 20% figure comes from a paper early on in the outbreak, the risk factors were being male, over 70, having significant pre-existing illness, emergency surgery and having major or cancer surgery.

By the time you account for having two screws out under local, the risk is very low. Even if they had to convert to GA halfway through, the overall inflammatory effect on your body would be tiny, so on the basis of the procedure you’re having, I wouldn’t be worried on your behalf.

Also, the hospital should swab you for coronavirus before you go, and they’ll only let you in if you’re negative.

Short version: No one involved will risk your life for the sake of taking two screws out.I am an anaesthetist.

The 20% figure comes from a paper early on in the outbreak, the risk factors were being male, over 70, having significant pre-existing illness, emergency surgery and having major or cancer surgery.

By the time you account for having two screws out under local, the risk is very low. Even if they had to convert to GA halfway through, the overall inflammatory effect on your body would be tiny, so on the basis of the procedure you’re having, I wouldn’t be worried on your behalf.

Also, the hospital should swab you for coronavirus before you go, and they’ll only let you in if you’re negative.

Short version: No one involved will risk your life for the sake of taking two screws out.

Thanks for that, that's the sort of real world knowledge I was hoping for.

I also sort of glad I hadn't misunderstood the 20% thing or dreamed it or whatever.


 
Posted : 08/09/2020 4:09 pm
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Or is she saying that 20% of people who have covid when they go under general will croak?

Yes.


 
Posted : 08/09/2020 4:10 pm
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It sounds to me that the surgeon wants to do the op under local and you’ve asked to have it done under a general due to the issues you mentioned. My guess would be that the casual use of the 20% stat is what she sees as being the easiest way to convince you to do the op under a local.

I’m not saying she’s wrong to want to do it under a local, I’d assume that if that’s her preference then there are reasons (maybe faster discharge time, improved outcomes, etc).

We're talking about 2 different meetings at two very different times.

Back in Feb, when we first discussed it, I REALLY wanted a General, they hold no fear for me, I've had 5 surgeries under a general over the last 10 years or so. The surgeon recommended a local for a quicker recovery, and I agreed to. Obviously that all got cancelled.

A few days ago I had the same pre-op meeting because so much had changed, now a GA was far higher risk (if I happened to have Covid at the time) so much so I had to be made aware that if if the unexpected happened and I had to have a GA then I had to accept a 20% chance of mortality IF I had Covid at the time, but as above, that doesn't seem to be nearly the whole story.

The procedure now is, I have a Covid swab 72 hours prior to surgery and I isolate until it's done, which is a whole other problem we need to work out.


 
Posted : 08/09/2020 4:18 pm
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Recent research done by UCLA and Stanford university has concluded that if you are between 50 and 64 years of age, without significant comorbidities, your likelihood of dying from Covid is............
19.1 million to 1
A figure that improves with reduced age.

Good luck to the OP, for the OP.


 
Posted : 08/09/2020 11:09 pm
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Improve the odds of Covid not affecting you in a serious way, if you're not already, get taking Vitamin D supplements!


 
Posted : 09/09/2020 12:36 am
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Your surgeon is probably struggling to get an an anaesthetist In the private sector as most are busy with NHS work. It’s much easier for him/her to push local anaesthesia. This will have some bearing on the risks you are given. a GA has negligible risk even now with proper screening


 
Posted : 09/09/2020 12:43 am
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jonnyweale ^^^ has is it.
With them being an anaesthetist, I would have confidence in his/her comments.
As this is STW it's possible that a hand surgeon will drop in with some contrary comments; if that doesn't happen, crack on - you're over thinking.


 
Posted : 09/09/2020 12:45 am
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