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Bill - nothing to be concerned about as england won't get past the group stage.
The question is was he being truthful with regards to his claims of the low likelihood of power cuts this winter?
Well, his remarks backed up what the National Grid's statement
But the government really needs to get people focusing on reducing usage.
I’m just wondering what to do about fish tanks.. Can you buy batteries that covert to AC to keep the pumps and heaters going?
If any power cuts are just 3 hours you won't have too much to worry about. When I had tropical fish, on the odd occasion we had a power cut I would just throw a duvet over the tank to keep the heat in. I guess this advice might not be as pertinent if you keep marine which need a much more stable environment believe.
I was thinking about this earlier today. I reckon we could do most of our workshop work using head torches if necessary. The bummer will be our cloud-based EPOS system and the card machine, both of which rely on a working secure internet connection. If the power goes out, I don't know whether we'll still have mobile signal, so I can't plan to rely on a mobile hotspot if necessary.
Time to return to the barter system? We exchanged a bike service for a sack of potatoes during lockdown. 😉
I’m just wondering what to do about fish tanks..
Just cover them with loads of blankets/duvet/whatever it's only proposed to be for 3 hours so it shouldn't have any dramatic affect on temperature or water chemistry. And importantly any changes will be gradual.
You might consider cleaning the filters afterwards as you would during regular maintenance. Obviously aerobic bacteria in the filters will have died back during the 3 hours but they will re-establish to previous levels very quickly. Although I doubt that cleaning the filters will be particularly necessary.
I guess that if you wanted to be super cautious you could also do a partial water change as well.
I have no idea about a marine aquarium though. A power cut would worry me if I was responsible for one.
If your electricity fails for any reason(at source), the power supply company is supposed to take X amount off your bill.
I expect if power cuts are going to now become the norm, and these profit driven parasites are looking at refunding millions of customers, there's going to be a new clause in your terms and conditions.
So pay attention to anything dropping through the door from your supplier announcing information about proposed power outages.
I’m just wondering what to do about fish tanks..
yeah a UPS like for PC equipment would work fine, or something like an Anker Powerhouse:
https://www.anker.com/uk/products/a1720?ref=search_powerhouse&variant=42529253589156
which is a bit more versatile (great for taking camping etc!)
Bit spendy, but there'll be discounts on Black Friday for those and the Jackery equivalent which is the other budget version.
Dyna - no they have said people would get money back
It's what happens when you close coal power stations which can easily stock fuel and build loads of wind and solar which is useless on still winter evenings. And are relying on an aging fleet of nuclear power stations which are getting closed at end of life. And planning to rely on imports wasn't clever either.
As highlighted back in July
https://watt-logic.com/2022/07/28/winter-outlook-2022/
It’s what happens when you close coal power stations which can easily stock fuel and build loads of wind and solar which is useless on still winter evenings. And are relying on an aging fleet of nuclear power stations which are getting closed at end of life. And planning to rely on imports wasn’t clever either.
FIFY
It’s what happens when you don't plan.
A bit like how they didn't plan for a pandemic either, even when told that their planning was 'lacking'.
It’s what happens when you close coal power stations which can easily stock fuel and build loads of wind and solar which is useless on still winter evenings. And are relying on an aging fleet of nuclear power stations which are getting closed at end of life. And planning to rely on imports wasn’t clever either.
Yes, but Brexit will make everything better. The clear problem is that you are thinking like a remainer!
Sunlit uplands with more white, English coal power than you could shake a stick at!
For 12v stuff like internet routers etc you could look at something like a 12v UPS
Well everyone having a 100kWh battery sat on the driveway would be very good for managing peak demand spikes, just dip a few % into all the batteries. Long term you can see it making the grid work far more efficiently….
I was asked to work on a project at one of the big charger installers figuring out just that… 10 years ago. They’re still not doing it yet I guess.
Tesla are doing this in California using a virtual powerplant of Tesla Powerwalls in 2342 homes.
https://electrek.co/2022/08/18/teslas-virtual-power-plant-first-event-helping-grid-future/
Maybe I'm reading too much into the situation but it wouldn't surprise me if they're talking up the prospect of power cuts as much as possible to soften opposition to fracking the shit out of the country 🤔
<ernielynch
Free Member
It doesn’t sound like anything to get too worried about – a three hour power cut with a day’s advance warning via text message.>
I couldn't agree more really not an issue if it helps.
Trickle down power cuts....
I'm unaffected by all this stuff - heat and hot water from free firewood, and I live in an ex SSE house on an 11kv spur attached to a 3MW hydro electric plant that will only be shutting down if we get a winter drought on the West Coast of Scotland. The power plant can't operate on island mode but I cant see the spur shutting down as they'll need all the generation they can get.
Smug, me?
Oooh - you edited that.
The question will be is there more demand or generation on that 11kV line from the automated switching point.
Me? I’ve got a Tesla Powerwall that I can make sure is topped up prior to a rolling 3 hour power cut and will operate in island mode automatically.
I suspect if there are rolling power cuts my energy use will rise slightly due to 1) the round trip efficiency of a battery and 2) neighbours dropping in for a cup of tea.
Smug, me?
Well I can't claim my own personal 3MW hydro plant but if it looks like power cuts are going to happen I'll nudge up the reserve limit on the Powerwall to make sure it always has enough reserve to run the house for 3-4 hours.
You’ll only need say 2kWh to easily last 3 hours. Just don’t run the washing machine during the power cut.
You’d probably get away with 1kWh
I can't help thinking this won't have that much of an effect anyway. Won't it just offset the demand either side of the power cuts? Everyone charging their power packs, running the washing machine, having a shower, ramping the heating up to get some heat in the house etc. Then turning all the same stuff on as soon as the lights come on? How many people will celebrate with a brew when the power is back on! Or doesn't it work like that?
Personally not that fussed, it's not a hardship in the grand scheme of things for us, but there are plenty of vulnerable people out there who will feel this if it does happen.
I also wonder how many throbbers will just sit in their cars with the engine running to keep warm/radio on/charge the iPhone?
I live in an ex SSE house on an 11kv spur attached to a 3MW hydro electric plant that will only be shutting down if we get a winter drought on the West Coast of Scotland
Do you have a smart meter? If so, you can be shut down.
I've been stockpiling scrap lead acid batteries from fire systems. We used to return them for disposal but I've kept them to weigh them in or use them with an invertor for camping.
Plenty of them are fine but replaced due to age.
Plenty haven't discharged, so completely by accident I have a shed full of free electricity, if there's a power cut.
Combined with the camping stoves we can hopefully ride out the (possible) return to the seventies without it being too horrible.
The power cuts are not intended to reduce overall power consumption. So if people up their consumption slightly either side of evening peak it won't matter.
The cuts will be if National Grid can't supply enough power to meet overall demand. Conditions will be a high pressure weather zone in January. Wind drops. No solar in evening. No imports available in the evening because of similar weather in Europe.
Not a big issue for us. Head torches. Gas hob for cooking and a bit of heat
How will be a 3 hour cut work out for a old folks home?
I believe the plan to meet demand includes imports. Hopefully they don't have a similar plan in France. We can,t import from each other at the same time
Do you have a smart meter? If so, you can be shut down.
Unless it's a smart pre payment meter ....nope.
Unless it’s a smart pre payment meter ….nope.
Um, yep.
Certainly if the meter is a SMETS2 spec. I’m a bit rusty so not sure on SMETS1 DCC enrolled meters. Now… while the meter has the capability to be remotely disconnected, and the commands are available through the DCC, the suppliers I have dealt with have not implemented the functionality to do so in bulk.
Interesting because while ofgem say your right in extreme circumstances and that in 2021 only 6 cases of remote disconnection were recorded. .... Most of the large power suppliers go to great lengths to say it's not possible in writing on their website. (And their staff)
Not that it bothers me. Either way. We have a generator and EPS because it is pretty much a way of life that we get 2-3 powercuts a year out here - and generally for 2-3 days at a time....or 10day-2weeks if it's not the main line that's down.
But the DNO will be the first ones moaning when people start bypassing their meters if they start that nonsense. Not that I condone it but desperate people feeling like they are being controlled do desperate things and it's quite literally 20 minutes including getting the tools out to bypass a smart meter.
How will be a 3 hour cut work out for a old folks home?
The DNOs should have protected customers configured when they carry out the rota disconnections. Not sure if this extends to care homes though.
Update...the protected sites list only includes hospitals by the look of it
'Hospitals as agreed with NHS Foundation Trusts, Primary Care Trusts,
Acute Trusts, Local Health Boards (in Wales), Welsh NHS Trusts and
NHS Health Scotland'
I know, certainly with two of the larger suppliers, they are also almost correct when they say it is not possible. But only because they have chosen not to implement the functionality as part of their standard customer management systems. It is possible on a ‘per device’ basis but if they are operating within the appropriate regulations it requires more than one person, and an exceedingly high level of access within the organisation. Certainly not something easily achieved within a large company.
From a suppliers perspective I can’t see that functionality being implemented unless they were mandated to by government/ofgem. It doesn’t offer them any benefits right now. Also, due to the nature of smart meter communications, only the supplier can send the relevant commands to the meter. So it’s not like the government could tell the DCC to ‘just do it’.
I just wish I trusted the current administration to not do something monumentally stupid in this area, because the technology is already out there.
The power cuts are not intended to reduce overall power consumption. So if people up their consumption slightly either side of evening peak it won’t matter.
Hmmm. The cuts are hypothetical, though I am sure they are being planned, so it is difficult to be precise, but…
They are rolling cuts that I’m hearing talked about, so not everyone would get the same 3 hours, so it isn’t just to address the evening peak.
This is where energy -v- power gets interesting, as does what the constraint is. Don’t worry about PV - there won’t be any at 5pm in December/January. It’s wind or gas that’s the issue (technically it’s both). If as I think it is we are talking about gas constraints into CCGTs (and saving gas for heating and cooking) then it is about short term energy reduction not avoiding the 4-5 hour evening peak. That’s consistent with 3 hours rolling cuts.
If they are trying to avoid the evening peak the a 3 hour power cut to a different group each evening would be where’d you need to go.
It’s an interesting subject and not easy to explain on a phone on a forum.
I do have some knowledge as I wrote the rota disconnection schedules for the Sheffield floods in 2007 (which may have been the first time they were used since the 1970s in this country- not sure).
I settled on 6 groups (3 sets of pairs) and a 3 hour power cut. Each group had a high likelihood of a cut (while its pair had a medium likelihood and the other four groups were low likelihood).
So your 6 periods of 3 hours were HLLMLL with each group offset by one period.
The three hours was intended to be long enough to be worth leaving the house but short enough not to cover 2 meals. The 18 hour repeat meant you didn’t miss the same meal each day (always being off at dinner time would be bad). And we were able to mix the localities that were off so that you ought to be in walking distance of a pub, shop or community centre that was on - in a town.
I later found out one of the guys that worked for me had been involved in drawing up the rota disconnection in the 70s - nice of him to tell me in advance.
Widespread failure = collapse of the grid which will take *days* to recover.
This was an interesting watch...not particularly relevant other than it shows how the stack of cards comes tumbling down.
I was wondering about the remote disconnect mentioned above, only learned that it was a remote feature of smart meters recently. I wonder if that would make it easier to get the grid back online after a collapse (or prevent a blackout) if they could bulk disconnect households.
Is there likely to be water problems as well or is it just power?
Only asking because the mother-in-law does some monster turnouts round at ours some evenings and I'd hate for one to be stuck in the pan for any longer than is absolutely necessary.
The power cuts are not intended to reduce overall power consumption. So if people up their consumption slightly either side of evening peak it won’t matter.
Why am I misunderstanding this then?
. The aim is to reduce power usage by about 5% through the three-hour disconnections. Consumers would typically be notified with a text message, similar to when there is a planned outage for maintenance work.
There is no suggestion that these power cuts will only occur during peak periods. And how can they be sure of demand in whatever area the day before?
tonyja
Is there likely to be water problems as well or is it just power?
Only asking because the mother-in-law does some monster turnouts round at ours some evenings and I’d hate for one to be stuck in the pan for any longer than is absolutely necessary.
Are you saying it's a double flusher, as your toilet cistern should be full for the first flush... If its a second I suggest you hand her a bucket of old washing water before she populates the pan 😉
If the wife does one first then the mother-in-law goes in (apart from our spaniel she's the only one who doesn't gag when following the wife) then it's going to put the room out of action for the rest of the night.
There is no suggestion that these power cuts will only occur during peak periods. And how can they be sure of demand in whatever area the day before?
There are two separate issues here I think. Forecasting might show we are at risk of not quite meeting demand at peak times. So NG uses a number of tools to reduce demand, calls on the contingency coal contracts etc. This is where from November they're suggesting we can use this new DFS service and agree not to put our washing machines/dryers on, charge EVs etc. at peak times and get a payment.
The other scenario is if the gas crisis kicks off and we lose CGT generation, so can't meet demand for a longer period. This is when interruptions to customer supplies are necessary and the rota disconnections come in. This is designed to spread the pain between everybody in 3-hour chunks.
NG has a team of demand forecasters working all this out.
Probably a total over reaction from me but I was in Halfords today and made an impulse buy of a wee gas stove and some gas canister so I can have a brew etc should the worst happen. Probably never be used (for blackouts anyway) and I thought for £30 it gives a bit of peace of mind.
When buying it I felt like one of those toilet paper hoarders at the start of covid ☺️. The bloke at the till said they are selling loads of them just now for this very reason (might be a good time to get some halfords shares🤣)
No smart meter. My smugness is intact. I wouldn't worry about going without electricity for a few hours, might make me read a book instead of surf the net......
By candle light too.
Make sure it’s either a romance or a gothic horror.
made an impulse buy of a wee gas stove and some gas canister so I can have a brew etc should the worst happen.
You can't manage without a cup of tea for three hours?
If I feel that I might not be able to cope when I get the text message warning I will get a flask, hot water bottle, sandwiches, and various snacks, all ready in plenty of time.
No smart meter. My smugness is intact.
Makes no difference? Rota disconnects are done in blocks by the DNO on their networks AFAIK if that's what you meant...
5% cut?
My non expert understanding is that the power cuts are supposed to cut peak power demand if it can't be met.So yes the 3 hour blackouts would reduce peak demand.
However if people then catch up on cooking, washing machine use etc later the overall demand would not be reduced much. Just smoothed out over a longer period.
If you look at gridwatch.co.uk it shows demand. Yesterday for example demand varied between 21Gw and 31Gw. So demand that was deferred by power cuts could be delayed until later.
A long read but this blog post about the whole situation is interesting.
https://watt-logic.com/2022/10/06/electricity-winter-outlook-2022-23/
So I think I've figured out how to connect a diy gas line to my car's lpg tank and run a jury rigged propane heater off it. So I'm either going to come through the blackouts lovely and warm, or entirely exploded.
Unfortunately I don't think I can run the fridge or the computer on lpg.
My non expert understanding is that the power cuts are supposed to cut peak power demand if it can’t be met.
No. If customer supply interruptions are needed, it means we can't meet demand for a longer period. Not just the peak.
https://www.nationalgrideso.com/research-publications/winter-outlook
Scenario 1 and 2 in the winter outlook are useful.