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My guess is its both - better at identifying and higher incidence - and again only my guess but I believe environmental pollutants contribute to the higher incidence. We now know leaded petrol caused developmental changes in children. What do we not yet know?
I think as parents of autistic kids we are sometimes guilty of seeing autism from only the positions of own personal situations
Also what I think makes the minefield of trying to understand and give advice about autism etc so difficult is there is no easily definable traits that apply to everyone on the spectrum. The spectrum is wide and the severity and how traits manifest is varied. How an individuals life is impacted (or enriched) by their autism is unique to them (though you could argue there is some commonalities up and down the spectrum). I remember watching a program where someone said when you've met one person with autism you have met one person with autism.
My own personal experience relates to the more servere end and I can often spot traits such as rocking, hand flapping, vocalisations and other stimming behaviours, but sometimes it is hard for me to spot any indicators with those on the higher functioning end of the spectrum. In some ways I think daily life is harder for those on the higher end as they are more self aware and expected to fit in with society, whereas someone like my daughter is more easily identified as having an impairment.
I have some sympathy for anyone who comes into close contact with ND individuals wth no prior experience, and fully understand it is easy for someone to make assumptions about their behaviour. It is hard for everyone to sometimes differentiate between what is deemed inappropriate or 'Bad' behaviour that is due to ASD, ADHD etc and what is due to possible bad parenting, learnt behaviour, hormones, peer pressure, etc
but ultimately is what really matters that we try to ensure all kids get the best possible tools to deal with life? It works when parents, teaching staff and social services (if appropriate) are all on board with the intention of giving each individual child the support that child needs (which is going to be unique for each of them). Oh for a perfect world!
Apologies for my long posts on this subject it's been a big part of my life for the last twenty years and I don't talk much about it outside of our family. I could easily write a book about the trials, tribulations and triumphs we have all been though!
My youngest - Thud - has ADHD/ autism.
Excluded from primary school - where they shoved him in the library every day. No wheel chair ramps there, just benign bullying leading to a suicide attempt.
Swapped primary schools, got prescribed meds, and he thrived - but then covid hit.
Secondary school has been a challenge - home-learning didn't happen because it was dull, but at the age of 11 he was happily working his way across Scotland's skateparks armed with Google Maps and a Revolut card (these are brilliant for subtly tracking your kids !)
Going into third year of secondary school Thud appears to have a couple of friends but he doesn't do much with them. Deal on a weekend is he leaves the house mid-afternoon to play football at the astro. He arranges this, else he has to come biking with me.
We've never had challenges we are facing now. Children have been ordered to stay home for two years to stay safe - a hug could kill Grandma - and then they are suddenly told to mingle in a big hall with hundreds of other kids. No wonder that anxiety is through the roof.
Anyway - Thud asked me to buy a book on evolution in the future, which I bought, and so am going to go and chat to him about it. Fascinating kid....
PSA ‘Love On The Spectrum’ and ‘Love On The Spectrum US’ are both streaming on UK Netflix.
Well worth tuning in for all, IMO.