[Closed] Osbourne says no to currency union.

As far as I can tell the Tories are promising us shit sandwiches tomorrow- but don't worry, shit is good for you and you'll grow to love the taste.

The obvious difference being that AS is promising Scotland shit sandwiches tomorrow and claiming they'll taste of jam.

The Tory narrative is that we didn't have jam yesterday but we are having jam today.

Sphericals!

The Tory narrative is that we've been eating Jam for years, but now the jar is empty and it turns out that Gordon paid for it on our credit card!

But don't worry everyone, if Labour get back in they've promised to go and buy us another Jar!

EDIT : I've just checked THM and you're definitely wrong - Britain is "booming"

No, I am definitely right. We are experiencing a faster and quicker than expected recovery but overall growth and longer term projections remain below trend. The foundations of the currency recovery are not strong enough to come to even close to idea of booming (outside SE property).

Tories were jubilant as they realised the UK was experiencing the most substantial economic growth in the developed world....

Almost true.

The Tory narrative is that we've been eating Jam for years, but now the jar is empty and it turns out that Gordon paid for it on our credit card!

Next you'll be telling us that the Tories didn't approve of the last Labour government's spending and would have done everything completely different !

[url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1562023/Tories-vow-to-match-Labour-spending.html ]Tories vow to match Labour spending[/url]

According to the Daily Telegraph :

[b][i]The Conservatives sought last night to destroy Labour claims that they would cut public services by issuing a formal pledge to match Gordon Brown’s spending plans.

“Today, I can confirm for the first time that a Conservative government will adopt these spending totals,” the Shadow Chancellor said. [/i][/b]

Gordon Brown's spending had the FULL approval of George Osborne.

A 5 year timeline of what post independence will offer a wee tiny bit short sighted.

Some of us take the longer view.

The obvious difference being that AS is promising Scotland shit sandwiches tomorrow and claiming they'll taste of [s]jam[/s]FFFFFFFRRRRRRRRREEEEEEEEEDDDDDDDDDDOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMM.

FTFY 😉

We are experiencing a faster and quicker than expected recovery

The Tories inherited a growing economy and then delayed recovery by 3 or 4 years.

A faster than expected recovery ??????

Do you write George Osborne's speeches THM ?

No, but fortunately I see no need to define myself according to any political party. I know you guys like to pretend otherwise. I teach and use facts instead.

The pace of the recent recovery has been faster than expected. Why do you think the Labour Party have advisedly changed their argument? Check it out against most professional forecasts. It's clear.

I don't have any desire or need to write speeches for any political party - I don't like being deceitful. But I have said for quite a while that a better than expected recovery may well be the Tory joker. Again, judging by recent polls, I am correct again!

As far as I can tell the Tories are promising us shit sandwiches tomorrow- but don't worry, shit is good for you and you'll grow to love the taste.

So long as it's not Elderberry jam. Vile filth.

I am correct again!

Shame you didn't register earlier on this forum THM, you could have warned us all of the imminent global credit crunch/banking crises.

teamhurtmore - Member
No, but fortunately I see no need to define myself according to any political party. I know you guys like to pretend otherwise. I teach and use facts instead.

The pace of the recent recovery has been faster than expected. Why do you think the Labour Party have advisedly changed their argument? Check it out against most professional forecasts. It's clear.

I don't have any desire or need to write speeches for any political party - I don't like being deceitful. But I have said for quite a while that a better than expected recovery may well be the Tory joker. Again, judging by recent polls, I am correct again!

Not impartial on independence - I think there are better options for Scotland and the UK. I have been consistent on that.

Don't give investment advice Ernie. But positioned myself nicely for when it came thanks, and for doing the right thing (investing) in the aftermath. Bought some great stuff in Italy but missed Greece annoyingly. Better not to listen to advice on the internet in that regard, even some of the pros.

But I am also correct on the current economic performance of the UK, however you may like to twist it. Oh and more accurate than (my mate??) GO.

EDIT he admitted his bias

However THM we all think our views are factual

I could post up tons of stuff that shows capitalism is exploitative, is a cycle of boom and bust...i dont think i would be able to claim a lack of bias

Likewise you are pro capitalism, right wing [ Disraelli one nation tradition] etc .

No one is free of bias and it is disingenuous to claim otherwise no matter who the poster is.

To be fair your economic analysis is usually pretty good , fair and accurate and could , for example, be used in a BBC report.

The Tories inherited a growing economy and then delayed recovery by 3 or 4 years.

It wasn't a real growing economy though was it? Its was a smoke and mirrors act built on borrowing more money than you could ever believe and throwing it around like a drunken sailor on shore leave in Monte Carlo!

And we're still not out of the hole!

Of course it will all be different under King Alex - I'm surprised he hasn't started telling us how he's married to Prudence and about his golden rules yet 😆

Don't give investment advice Ernie.

I wasn't suggesting investment advice. You obviously predicted the global banking crises and its effect on the UK economy, I'm just saying you could have warned us of the downturn that was about to happen in the economy. You definitely like to share your opinion on such matters

you could have warned us of the downturn that was about to happen

Rule 126: "Drive at a speed that will allow you to stop well within the distance you can see to be clear. "

Yep, warned about Kirschner's economics (sic) and their likely negative impact and also advised buying bombed out Italian banks and Royal Mail. So sorry, have given investment advice on here! In my old job, I was actively involved in preparing for the crisis, thanks.

ninfan - Member

It wasn't a real growing economy though was it? Its was a smoke and mirrors ......

The economy was growing when the Tories came to power.

[url= http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8538293.stm ]UK economic growth revised up to 0.3%[/url]

Quote :

[i]This revision will be seen as a vindication of the City analysts who thought the economy in the last months of 2009 was stronger than the official statistics implied. [/i]

Obviously as a Tory Party member/voter you are going to suggest that it was all just "smoke and mirrors". However the OECD, which doesn't speak on behalf of the Tory Party, were very confident that it had nothing to do with "smoke and mirrors".

[url= http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8606499.stm ]UK economy set to outpace most G7 peers, says OECD[/url]

Quote :

[i]The UK economy is forecast to outstrip its G7 peers in the second quarter of this year, says the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

The OECD predicted the UK would grow at an annualised rate of 3.1% in the second quarter of 2010.

Such a rate would put the UK ahead of the US, Japan, Germany, France and Italy - but not Canada.[/i]

The Tories inherited a growing economy but delayed recovery by several years. We are now being told to celebrate this great achievement.

Decent debate, far better than the nonsense we get on the tele.

the results at the end confirm my thoughts that Glasgow is far more biases toward yes aswell.

Very weak argument Ernie_Lynch, which you share with Ed Balls.

Just because retrospectively adjusted growth for 2007(?) was 0.3%, then the economy contracted until 2010 doesn't mean that policies in the interregnum period delayed growth!? Unless of course you believe the Tories caused the Eurozone crisis.

More reasonable to hypothesise that the Tories delayed growth via austerity, but that doesn't stand up either because there has been no meaningful austerity, money has remained cheap, and the alternative to the austerity smoke signals was the loss of confidence of the bond markets and hence economic oblivion...

GDP includes government spending, but doesn't subtract borrowing!

Claiming that the UK economy was growing then is like claiming that my household income went up last year because despite a £5k paycut, I took out a £10k bank loan 😆

Of course, even though my wife, Alex, spent half of it on a new car, she's been told that if she leaves me she doesn't have to pay any of it back because its in my name not hers, and she gets to keep the car 😉

Very weak argument Ernie_Lynch, which you share with Ed Balls.

I thought I made it clear that this very weak argument that you speak of wasn't my argument but that of the OECD ?

Let's try again :

[i]The UK economy is forecast to outstrip its G7 peers in the second quarter of this year, says the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

The OECD predicted the UK would grow at an annualised rate of 3.1% in the second quarter of 2010.

Such a rate would put the UK ahead of the US, Japan, Germany, France and Italy - but not Canada.[/i]

As you can see the OECD were confident in April 2010 that the green shoots of recovery were firmly established. Unfortunately the next month the Tories managed to form a government with the Liberal Democrats and trampled on those green shoots putting back the recovery by several years. Something which apparently we should be extremely grateful for.

putting back the recovery by several years

Sorry, I thought it had forced us into a double and triple dip recession?

In fact, I remember the two Ed's telling us that thats what had happened...

Non?

I think it was the Govts stats folk who said that prior to revision of the data
Would you like to blame the opposition for this ?

You sound desperate Z-11. However much spin you want to put on it, and I really don't care what "the two Ed's" have to say, the Tories inherited a growing economy well on the road to recovery. According to the OECD the UK economy was set to preform better than most other G7 countries. But the Tories delayed that recovery by several years.

Now I appreciate that as a committed Tory you want to put a different spin on the situation, but you can't expect me to agree to ignore the facts because you find them embarrassing.

Ernie, no, I don't think I need to spin anything, I think you're simply delusional - see my point on how spending borrowed money does constitute real growth,

everyone here who has to pay their own bills can see clearly that borrowing money from Wonga does not constitute a long term financial recovery plan!

biases? 😆

I think you're simply delusional

Says the man who dismisses out of hand the assessment that the OECD made of the UK economy in April 2010 🙂

[img] [/img]

* waves *

Says the man who dismisses out of hand the assessment

No, I dismissed out of hand the *predictions* made by the OECD

Because they're predictions

And we all know how reliable fiscal predictions are 😆

Er, can we get back to discussing how Sir BS of Eck will make even more of a mess of the Scottish economy?

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/11/oecd-overstating-growth-forecasts

A failure to spot the severity of the eurozone crisis and the impact of the meltdown of the global banking system led to consistent forecasting errors in recent years, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development admitted on Tuesday.

The Paris-based organisation said it repeatedly overestimated growth prospects for countries around the world between 2007 and 2012. The OECD revised down forecasts at the onset of the financial crisis, but by an insufficient degree, it said.

Because they're predictions

If it's the predictions that bother you why are you ignoring the "facts" ? Do you want me to post them again ?

OK

26 February 2010 : [url= http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8538293.stm ]UK economic growth revised up to 0.3% [/url]

Quote :

[i]The UK economy grew by 0.3% in the final three months of last year, faster than previously estimated.

This revision will be seen as a vindication of the City analysts who thought the economy in the last months of 2009 was stronger than the official statistics implied.[/i]

The Tories inherited a growing economy, no amount of spin can change that fact.

Er, can we get back to discussing how Sir BS of Eck will make even more of a mess of the Scottish economy?

Will that do?

[url= http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/26_11_13_scottishindependence.pdf ]TADA here it is [/url]

TO save you time it Salmonds white paper and look it proves this

Will we be able to keep the pound or will we be forced to join
the euro?
Scotland will continue to use the pound, just as we do today.
The Scottish Government’s expert advisers, the Fiscal
Commission, have set out a clear framework for this. It will
be in the interests of the rest of the UK as well as Scotland.

Do i really have to find an outlandish economic claim now?

Only independence provides the opportunity to build an
economy to take advantage of our unique strengths and
size, and to deliver a more prosperous, resilient and fairer
Scotland, fully engaged in Europe and the wider world

P17 ...ok off to get a life now...I may be some time

Funny to read what the OECD actually said in and between 2009-2011 especially about the unsustainabilty of the 2009 upturn. God, it must be sad if every point has to be phrased in a uniquely poltical manner. The OECD pointed out at the time that growth would slow in 2010 due to "necessary fiscal tightening" (their words) and a slowdown in world trade. So why did the UK require fiscal tightening and who is responsible for a slowdown in world trade? If the UK followed THEIR presciptions (rightly or wrongly) they expected the economy to recover only from 2012.

Hardly an upbeat assessment that everything was hunky dory in 2010 or that the subsequent policies in their view were wrong. Of course, it turns out later that one important variable in their prescriptions for the UK (the fiscal multiplier) turned out to be very differnt to those used in their models. Not surprising that the Chancellor then did not follow through on the more aggressive deficit reduction prescriptions made by some.

Of course, if we had built up a budget surplus during the false boom, or at the very least not allowed to increase at the wrong point of the cycle, life would have been a lot easier. Odd, that it was a group of self-proclaimed Keynesian economists who forgot their basic teaching when in control. Even more frustrating that they had delivered a budget surplus (it took a labour gov to deliver that unusual UK even, a budget surplus) before hubris took over.

Si solum.....

For balance you should have pointed out GO and the Tories agreed with Labour spending plans pre crash.

I think labours view is the public sector got so shafted under the Tories it needed long term investment to sort it out hence the spending.

That said you are not incorrect that the we should save in the good times. However its unlikely any political party will leave billions in the coffers for the next lot
Cons would do a tax cut [ for the wealthy] I imagine and labour spend it on the NHS or some such do gooder stuff . Both would strengthen their core vote by spending the other parties money

It makes economic sesne to save but not political sense sadly.

Junkyard - lazarus

I think labours view is the public sector got so shafted under the Tories it needed long term investment to sort it out hence the spending.

That's the cosmic cycle isn't it? Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector,

If you look at that for long enough, you'll see a sailboat.

All I see is a shit sandwich

And we're the ones who are forced to eat it:-)
labour or Tory makes no difference, Scotland has a chance to make a difference on September 18th

Tomorrow's Sunday Herald:

[img] [/img]

Oh, and the latest Panelbase poll puts Yes on 47% once you exclude the undecideds.

Panelbase polls are all quite high, yougov polls tend to be low. With the undecided included the yes vote is only 40% and the chances of the undecided not voting is slim given how the debate has gripped Scotland. The average poll result over the last 20 polls is only 33.75% voting yes. The no vote is still in the lead and no amount of statistical massage is going to change that. There is still a lot of time to go though and it is the vote on the day that counts not the polls.

Hardly an upbeat assessment that everything was hunky dory in 2010 .....

No one claimed that everything was "hunky dory" in 2010 🙄

The period following a recession is always going to be fragile ...... no one expects to go from severe recession straight into strong growth.

Which is [i]precisely[/i] why the Tory determination to apply deficit reduction policies when the country has only just emerging from recession particularly stupid and irresponsible, and why recovery was delayed by several years.

But then of course the aim wasn't really to clear the deficit, after all for almost the entire period the Tories have been in power since the end of the second world war the the UK has had a deficit. And that never seemed to have bothered them before.

No the real reason was to use mess created by the friends and supporters in the banking sector as a excuse to severely cut back on social provisions which ordinary working people rely on.

They're not even bothered in cutting back government spending as long as it benefits them, eg, pays for unemployment which helps them enormously to minimise the wage bill.