It seems like the "wait your turn in the queue" comment people keep making which also has zero basis in fact.
@Northwind, no the EU officials are telling us the facts about the process. They where talking about how long it takes in practice. Lots of countries have been through the process and there is a current queue. The process requires unanimous approval at various stages and ratification by member states parliaments.
In order to get into the EU the Scots are going to have to turn up with a big cheque book, a compliant attitude and a lot of patience. The EU are irked by all the UK opt outs not least the currency, a new member is going to have to bend over and take everything the EU has to offer.
The former President of the European Parliament, Pat Cox, has said an independent Scotland could negotiate continued membership of the European Union in the timescale set out by the pro-independence Scottish Government.
“Done thoroughly and expeditiously an internal enlargement could be negotiated during this interim period between the referendum and the independence of Scotland in 2016,” Cox wrote in an article for The Scotsman newspaper Tuesday.
Scotland cannot be thrown out of EU
I didn't try SQL injection on their website as I don't especially fancy annoying the US government, being the craven kind of sassenach that I am.
@oldandpastit, well if you did they could probably guaranty you some long term accommodation for free 😉 A Scottish guy wrote a book about such a trip, The Gang of One. It's a good book, worth a read.
@gavstorie, you have to understand the politics of the EU, its like trying to herd cats. You have the Spanish government in Madrid who will do all they can to block Catalan moves for independence (it wasn't so long a go they basically wouldn't pick any players from Barcelona for the national side, it was dominated by Real Madrid). Blocking a Scottish application, possibly even permanently, would send a very strong signal to the Catalans.
gavstorie - No one is suggesting that Scotland will not be able to apply and join the EU.
The questions are:
How long will that take?
What will they have to accept if they do?
Lots of countries have been through the process and there is a current queue.
queue is a bit misleading, it's not like a deli counter where you don't get served until the person in front of you. turkey has been in the queue for ages and it keeps getting leapfrogged (frogleapt?) for mysterious reasons...
@gavstorie, I didn't get past the bit where he was suggesting Putin could base his subs there if the EU didn't let them in.
Gavstorie - thats set up as if he's giving evidence, do we know who to or where?
Doesn't appear to be uk parliament home affairs committee or scots parliament, as they have quite different setups 😕
No one is suggesting that Scotland will not be able to apply and join the EU.The questions are:
How long will that take?
What will they have to accept if they do?
@gobuchal - actually its not clear they would ever be accepted. Spain could veto permanently. Loss to the EU one country of 5m, gain to Spain of blocking Catalan independence permanently.
Not sure of the thread has discussed already planned SNP cuts to the Scottish NHS at a time when UK funding is increasing ?
IFS report published last week [url= http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/11/scotland-nhs-not-better-independence-institute-fiscal-studies ]link[/url]
NHS whistleblower leaks funding gap for Scottish NHS, SNP plans to make cuts afer referendum [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29213416 ]link[/url]
@gobuchal - actually its not clear they would ever be accepted. Spain could veto permanently. Loss to the EU once country of 5m, gain to Spain of blocking Catalan independence permanently.
or more likely get another country to veto (stops a Catalan backlash in Spain) in return for a few favours at the next negotuating table
the EU is about horsetrading, Spain will have influence and "friends" they can use to insist that iS remain a "candidate" country virtually indefinitely as a demonstartion of soft power to the Catalan and Basques
jambalaya - MemberLots of countries have been through the process and there is a current queue.
No, there isn't- accession is a parallel process, each country proceeds at its own rate. Molgrips was in the queue for ages and other, faster countries kept passing him. And Jean-Claude Juncker's been clear that Scotland joining the EU wouldn't be subject to the restrictions on enlargement which will delay any new applicants for 5 years.
As for "lots of countries", no other country has ever been in the position Scotland will- even if it's decided that we need to be treated completely as a new country, with no fast track process or bridging treaty, the existing membership will still ease accession, as will Scotland's existing compliance with accession criteria (I don't know if we're fully compliant; we're certainly far closer than is typical)- most new members have to do a lot of work to get to that point, and that's what takes the longest time in typical accessions.
The range of times to join are huge- Finland managed it in 3 years, Scotland would almost certainly have a better starting point even than them.
Molgrips was in the queue for ages and other, faster countries kept passing him.
😆
I'm afraid I disagree. Scotland starting point is that it does not exist as a nation with a track record of economic performance. It will be difficult for the EU to consider Scottish accession until it is clear what iScotland looks like. That will require a large part of the separation negotiations with rUK to be complete and budgets for an iS to be created so that contributions can be set.The range of times to join are huge- Finland managed it in 3 years, Scotland would almost certainly have a better starting point even than them.
Once it is clear what iS looks like, I agree that it will not take long to join.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/304495/Spain-will-not-veto-an-independent-Scotland-joining-EU
It's always good to pay attention to the words used when you put something forward for your argument. The only thing in that link attributed to the Spanish is that they would not object to Scotland becoming independent. Aileen McLeod MSP has somehow taken this as proof of Westminster "scaremongering" and a guarantee of continued EU membership from Scotland.
What Jose-Manuel Garcia actually said was:
"We don't interfere in other countries' internal affairs. If Britain's constitutional order allows, and it seems that it does allow, Scotland to choose independence, we have nothing to say about this."
Regarding EU membership he said:
"They have to resolve a mountain of problems, as Better Together has explained very well. You have to achieve candidate status. You have to negotiate 35 chapters. It has to be ratified by the institutions of the EU. It then has to be ratified by 28 national parliaments."
he did not at any point say they would veto it [ can you find a link where anyone spanish has said they will?] and he was asked directly so it seems safe to assume they wont veto it as he could have said Yes we will veto it.What he did was explain what he thought had to happen.
He [tommy sheridan]for many English, sums up how we think they feel about us.
If you wish to think that the unelected convicted liar is indicative of a nation then you are foolish.
It is like claiming nick griffin or the loonies in UKIP are indicative of all the english.
Spain will have influence and "friends" they can use to insist that iS remain a "candidate" country virtually indefinitely as a demonstartion of soft power to the Catalan and Basques
Yes spain the power house of Europe will unleash it friends to block iS - they are on record as saying they wont and their own fishery industry will have problems with the lack of access to Scottish waters
Molgrips was in the queue for ages and other, faster countries kept passing him.
We are really not worthy of such acts of comedic genius
I wish I had thought of that
Utterly Brilliant.
he did not at any point say they would veto it [ can you find a link where anyone spanish has said they will?] and he was asked directly so it seems safe to assume they wont veto it as he could have said Yes we will veto it.What he did was explain what he thought had to happen.
Come on!
If you ask a politician a question, and he doesn't say yes, and he doesn't say no, then you're off your rocker to suggest in any way that [i]"it seems safe to assume they wont "[/i]
If it was Cameron being asked a question on privatising the NHS and he answered like that, you'd be all over it like a tramp on chips!
Billy Bragg's thoughts on Scottish versus British nationalism...
You have a point to be fair and I have overstated it. I retract that interpretation*. It is probably better/more accurate to say that he sat on the fence so as to not interfere in internal UK affairs.
However there is still not one comment from the Spanish saying they will veto despite all the unionists saying they will.
You can interpret that how you wish as well.
* so it seems safe to assume they wont veto- I agree that is over egging it
However there is still not one comment from the Spanish saying they will veto despite all the unionists saying they will.
You can interpret that how you wish as well.
As you said yourself,
.so as to not interfere in internal UK affairs.
The Spanish want to deal with the Catalan issue themselves and do not want to be seen openly interfering with other countries.
Besides, they have a very strong position when it comes to negotiation regarding Scottish entry into the EU, why would they show their hand early?
You can bet that if they think Scotland getting into the EU will strengthen calls for an independent Catalonia, then they will do what they can to prevent it.
[i]Billy Bragg's thoughts on Scottish versus British nationalism.[/i]
No thanks....will pass on that!
I'm not commenting on BT claiming a Spanish veto. I'm commenting on yS claiming that there being no Spanish desire to interfere in the independence of Scotland means that Scotland will be granted immediate automatic entry to the EU as soon as independence is declared.
Juan-Manuel Garcia, Spanish Foreign Minister:
[i]"We don't interfere in other countries' internal affairs. If Britain's constitutional order allows, and it seems that it does allow, Scotland to choose independence, we have nothing to say about this."[/i]
Aileen McDonald, MSP:
[i]"The reality is, as legal, constitutional and European experts have confirmed, that Scotland is part of the territory of the European Union and the people of Scotland are citizens of the EU. There is no provision for either of these circumstances to change upon independence, and the rest of the UK will be exactly the same position. We will both be successor states, with exactly the same status within the EU."[/i]
Viviane Reding, Vice-President of the European Commission, Fundamental Rights and Citizenship:
[i]"The Commission's position on the issue that you raise has been stated on a number of occasions since 2004. The Treaties apply to the Member States. When part of the territory of a Member State ceases to be a part of that State, e.g. because that territory becomes an independent state, the treaties will no longer apply to that territory. In other words, a new independent region would, by the fact of its independence, become a third country with respect to the Union and the Treaties would, from the day of its independence, not apply anymore on its territory. Under Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, any European state which respects the principles set out in Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union may apply to become a member of the EU. If the application is accepted by the Council acting unanimously after consulting the Commission and after receiving the consent of the European Parliament, an agreement is then negotiated between the applicant state and the Member States on the conditions of admission and the adjustments to the Treaties which such admission entails. This agreement is subject to ratification by all Member States and the applicant state.
As far as EU citizenship is concerned, this is not an autonomous status but is dependent on national citizenship. In accordance with Article 20 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU), only persons holding the nationality of a Member State are
EU citizens. EU citizenship is additional to and does not replace national citizenship."[/i]
One of these statements draws inferences from another one of these statements that are entirely at odds with the third of these statements. I'm sure you can work out which is which.
Ox - Stop that. That's not what they want to hear.*
*Despite it been clearly stated on numerous occasions.
@ gob If i cannot assume then why can you ? You are guessing you have no quotes to back it up.
The minister has been clear that the issue of Scotland and catalonia are not the same as one is constitutionally allowed
"If the two parts of the United Kingdom are in agreement that [Scottish independence] is in accord with their constitutional arrangement, written or unwritten, Spain would have nothing to say, we would simply maintain that it does not affect us."Mr García-Margallo reminded the press that "the [Spanish] Constitution is based upon the indissoluble unity of the Spanish nation." He added: "The constitutional arrangements of the United Kingdom are one thing, those of Spain another, and it is their own business if they decide to separate from one another."
http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-politics/4428-spanish-foreign-minister-confirms-that-spain-would-accept-scottish-independence
was alos reported in the guardian as well
fuller explanation of their position here
TBH we cannot be certain but if you wish to state the spanish position coudl you use their words rather than you thoughts without evidence?
IMHO they wont block as they wish to
By distinguishing the Scottish case from those in Spain, the Spanish government aims to place its own voice to be the determinant for the cases of Catalonia and the Basque Country. An independent Scottish state could be recognised and accepted as a new member of the EU because its independence would have been achieved ‘in accordance with the legal and institutional procedures’ and with the support of the UK government. In the Spanish government’s view these two interrelated requirements – accordance with the domestic legal framework and approval from the central state – are not met in the case of Catalonia.
Not a spanish politicians view to be clear.
re the other point they do need to apply but the fact is they will apply whilst a member and this is a difference that will likely make it easier and faster to join
TBH we cannot be certain
Brilliant, we're on the same hymn sheet!
Now, whats plan B if they do?
whats plan B if they do?
we cannot be certain 😉
TBH we cannot be certain but if you wish to state the spanish position coudl you use their words rather than you thoughts without evidence?
I said
Besides, they have a very strong position when it comes to negotiation regarding Scottish entry into the EU, why would they show their hand early?
I'll ask you again why would they?
You can bet that if they think Scotland getting into the EU will strengthen calls for an independent Catalonia, then they will do what they can to prevent it.
So you disagree with that statement?
Spain don't want an independent Catalonia and will use what ever political levers they can to prevent it.
It's politics, facts and evidence don't always come into it.
We don't interfere in other countries' internal affairs.
is a but like saying
I did not have sexual intercourse with that woman
either it's blatantly not true or you've done something so similar that everyone thinks you did the act itself and you're being very technical about it
the fact is they will apply whilst a member
I've checked again, and Scotland still isn't a member of the EU
Junkyard - lazaruswhats plan B if they do?
we cannot be certain 😉
Come on, its a serious question
you commented yesterday that the No side was prone to [i]dismiss the wish for democracy as romantic and fanciful and mock it with cry "freedom".[/i]
But you're fuelling the fire by making pretend that it doesn't matter that you might be thrown out of Europe, it would destroy everything that has been claimed for an independent Scotland, to have not covered or planned for the possibility and expect people to vote in favour of Yes in blind faith without the future administration even covering the bases is ridiculous!
A whole lifetime they've had to plan for this moment - and they can't say what happens if just one of 27 other countries says 'hold your horses'!
You're aware that yesterday a petition of 750,000 names got handed to the Catalan Parliament calling for a Unilateral Declaration of Independence?
Why is there a shock that Salmond is lying about the NHS? It's wholly consistent. Been in France for past 24 hours but funny to hear on the radio coming back from Heathrow that Sturgeon and Swinney were hosting a rally/event from a FABRICATION plant in Glasgow. How utterly appropriate.
Yes - less independence, NHS at great risk, higher costs etc....it's all chaos and based on lies and deceit. Shocking.
gobuchul - MemberSpain don't want an independent Catalonia and will use what ever political levers they can to prevent it.
Perhaps. But preventing Scotland joining the EU won't prevent Catalonian independence, at best it could weaken the movement. It will on the other hand sink a good chunk their fishing industry, as they're heavily dependent on north sea fishing, and would lose all rights to fish in Scottish waters. Old story but still true.
Can anyone give me a good reason why the suggestion that Spain would veto Scottish membership comes from lots of places but never comes from Spain? If you accept that Spain are keen to prevent scottish independence, why wouldn't they state now that they'll veto EU membership? It'd be a real blow to the Yes campaign. Waiting serves no Spanish purpose.
why wouldn't they state now that they'll veto EU membership? It'd be a real blow to the Yes campaign. Waiting serves no Spanish purpose.
They stated many times that they will not interfere in another countries business. This is because they don't want anyone interfering in theirs, especially with reference to Catalonia.
gobuchul - MemberThey stated many times that they will not interfere in another countries business.
That's an argument why they won't veto- it's not an argument for why they might veto, but keep it a secret.
Maybe I'm not expressing this well. Spain has something to gain by Scotland being in the EU. It also has something to gain by Scotland remaining in the UK.
But what has it to gain from Scotland being independent, but not within the EU? That's the only outcome they can obtain by keeping quiet now then vetoing later.
Came across this when looking for info on Scottish fishing.
[url= http://en.mercopress.com/2014/05/02/if-eu-dumps-independent-scotland-12-countries-would-be-barred-from-its-fishing-waters ]Scottish fishing waters[/url]
Scottish First Minister warned that 12 countries could be barred from his country’s waters and would not even be allowed to pass through to reach Norwegian waters if an independent Scotland was refused European Union (EU) membership.
This just shows what a BS he really is. That is against international law and they would be obliged to allow safe and free passage through their waters. He spouts so much nonsense.
That's an argument why they won't veto- it's not an argument for why they might veto, but keep it a secret.
As I stated earlier. Why would they show their hands early?
It will become their business when EU membership for Scotland has an effect on them.
@Northwind - fishing waters, are those still 12 miles offshore or is it further these days. I have a vague memory that the large waters are an agreement within the EU.
I wasn't saying stalling or even blocking Scotland's membership would prevent Catalan independence just send them a clear message that it would be a very tough slog. There seems very little downside to Spain (or others) doing this.
On another point I wonder what the world must think of the Scots who seem to be arguing with just about everyone and in denial over EU membership, currency and many other points. Are they thinking this is a country we want to do business with or are they thinking "no wonder the Romans built a wall" 🙂
Just been thinking. With so much at stake either way, a couple of million Scots are going to be pretty glum on Friday. I know how it feels to be on the losing side in an election, and it's not nice. However for me it's usually only for five years; this time it's going to be at least 20 years and if the no side lose it'll be forever.
Who ever it is, you have my sympathy. Jut wanted to say that before the result.
ninfan the reason there was no pre negotiation was so pro unionists can argue as you are doing[ to be fair so AS coudld say any old guff as well]. All you are showing is that neither of us can predict hypothetically what would happen if hypothetically this happened etc.
Its fair to say a vote yes is to some degre ea leap in the dark but so is no as the future EU issue for the UK is just as unknown
NW questions is a better one tbh the Spanish veto has no source bit the no voters claims.
FWIW you are correct that it would not be desirable and it would be tricky but beyond that I am not sure why you value my guess.
I've checked again, and Scotland still isn't a member of the EU
Checks passport - see places of birth sees it is an EU one strokes chin
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@gobochul: Yeah, that was total pish- EU members would lose access to Scottish waters but would have the right to travel through, big mistake from Salmond there. (and annoyingly, the point on Scottish waters stands by itself but ended up getting undermined by the mistake). Ironically, it ends up being one of the arguments for making a seamless transition from UK-EU to Scotland-EU, it's not just to the detriment of Scotland to have a slow process.
I think I might have edited while you were posting- answered your question in the post above. This isn't showing their cards early- if they leave it any later, this hand's not worth playing at all.
Why would they show their hands early?
Why would they hide it?
You accept they have not said anything to support your view but you cling to it because they have no need to show their hand early? Its cluthching at starws
the reason that angelina Jolie has not said she will leave brad for me is because she does not want to show her hand too early. Convinced?
That is against international law
what international law means you have to grant access to anyone who wants to enter your territorial waters?
the reason there was no pre negotiation
What has pre-negotiation got to do with the Spanish veto?
All you are showing is that neither of us can predict hypothetically what would happen if hypothetically this happened etc.
All the more reason to present a Plan B then! The SNP know that there will either be a Veto, or no Veto, a binary scenario that is not in their control - why on earth, just at what moment in the planning process, do you decide to ignore one of the two possible outcomes?
Been away all weekend at a stag in berlin, so just been catching up on what's been happening over the weekend, pictures from Buchanan street were immense, gutted I missed that. And as per seems this thread is a mile away from reality. Still cracking out the scare stories! 😆
Some new news for today, Shetland news declares for independence.
http://www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence
Its happening! 🙂
so its a binary choice and you want to know what Plan B is 😯
