bigjim - MemberThis 'few difficult' years will be an interesting one if independence actually happens, I wonder if everyone will then be so light hearted about the reality of five or ten years of recession
Are you expecting 5-10 years of recession?
5-10 years of complicated and messy detangling if nothing else. Personally that's 5-10 years of insecurity I don't want, and I don't want it for my kids either. So I guess I'm selfish!
FWIW I was in a cab yesterday with a passionate yesser, totally deluded about the currency issues but that's another story, and even he thought the 18 month timetable to independence was complete garbage.
The ideal situation would be a No vote, then a proper effort for the changes we all (Scot and Brit) actually do want.
If there was legislation before parliament now on fundamental change - a federal system of government based on PR and abolition of the Lords - I'd change to No right now.
But there isn't. There isn't even a promise of Devo Max. There's a few vague waffling promises of "more tax raising powers" which are a poison chalice. The Labour party seems to think that if we just vote Labour then they'll make it all okay - they won't we tried that before, and we got Tony Blair.
5-10 years of complicated and messy detangling if nothing else
It won't be that - didn't take anywhere near that long for Australia and Canada to leave the British Empire, and Czechoslovakia separated in 12 months.
Big stakes here though. If there was going to be a resounding No vote why would we give up more powers? I think that's why you didn't see any promises made sooner as it looked like it was going to be no by 60-40
Cameron granted a referendum on the basis it was yes/no as devo-max was always going to be the real favoured option of the SNP and probably a lot of Scots, independence with training wheels and a safety net. I suppose it was a game of bluff and the recent opinion polls called that bluff.
Australia and Canada left the British empire when?
The ideal situation would be a No vote, then a proper effort for the changes we all (Scot and Brit) actually do want.
I'd agree if it wasn't for the fact that the Westminster based government (of all colours) has proven itself completely incapable of, and institutionally opposed to the type of progressive change that is demanded by both Scotland and a large proportion of the rest of the UK. Scotland is lucky enough to have the opportunity to free itself of the Westminster roadblock. With independence they have some hope that this change can happen eventually, without it they have acceptance that it will never happen.
Australia and Canada left the British empire when?
When Britain was quite bit bigger and more important than it is now 😉
Look at them trying not to walk in time with the music 😀
Interesting take on a no vote
Australia and Canada left the British empire when?
When Britain was quite bit bigger and more important than it is now.
i.e. more than 100 years ago. Personally I fail to see how the confederation of a group of colonies in the 19th and v early 20th century is a case study for separation of Scotland from the UK in the 21st.
bencooper - MemberIt is interesting that Yes is ahead in every age bracket apart from the over-65s. People who are going to be around to see the long-term results are much more pro-independence than people who are not.
Or you could also spin that as more of those with the most experience have decided to vote no
No. Economics isn't a science, it's more a philosophy.
@ben there is some truth in this but having the money to pay the bills is very real
vintagewino - Memberi.e. more than 100 years ago. Personally I fail to see how the confederation of a group of colonies in the 19th and v early 20th century is a case study for separation of Scotland from the UK in the 21st.
What do you have that's a better example? And, how about Czechoslovakia?
Are you expecting 5-10 years of recession?
It's a possibility. I've been reading some really interesting stuff from friends on that facebook that have very shiny jobs I don't understand in finance, who understand this all much better than I do.
I'm expecting a no result at the moment based on current polls though
That's accounting, not economics. Economics is not scientific.
Economics is the most studied social science isn't it?
What do you have that's a better example? And, how about Czechoslovakia?
The best example is Quebec.
What do you have that's a better example? And, how about Czechoslovakia?
I'm not sure that anything is a reasonable example to draw comparisons with.
Far too many variables.
I don't have a better example, why should I? I think it will take 5-10 years and will be messy. I think this because of the highly integrated nature of the UK and becuase of the vested interests that will inevitably use the courts to try to guarantee themselves the outcome they want - regardless of the side they are on.
Re Czechoslovakia, wiki sez "Neither the Czech Republic nor Slovakia sought recognition as the sole successor state to Czechoslovakia." So that's not a valid case study either.
Economics is the most studied social science isn't it?
Social sciences aren't science either 😉
B Cooper BSc(Hons) Physics and Astronomy
Are you expecting 5-10 years of recession?
@Northwind In Scotland it's possible, the smaller number certainly I would expect the costs of independence to push the UK back towards a recession for a year perhaps and Scotland will be much worse. Of course whether a national statistical office setup by AS would actually ever release such a figure is another question all together.
social science
@bigjim - as a mathematician I don't think those two words should be used next to each other 🙂
vested interests that will inevitably use the courts to try to guarantee themselves the outcome they want
Yes I agree, the lawyers will be massive winners
Well if you want to be silly, I have more sciencey letters behind my name than you do 😉
I don't see how you can separate economics, especially that of these mooted 'few difficult years', from salaries, mortgages, company's finances, etc, etc. It's this kind of burying head in sand and semantic nonsense which puts me right off the Yes side of things.
having the money to pay the bills is very real
yep, sadly. I really want to buy a house but borrowing a six figure some of money isn't looking like a great plan just now.
I have more sciencey letters behind my name than you do
never mind the quality, feel the width ? 😯
Yes I agree, the lawyers will be massive winners
I think you missed the k out.
bigjim - MemberIt's a possibility.
Sure, many things are possibilities- there's a lot of unintended consequences in any major change after all. But you were talking about the reality, not the possibility, unless I misread...
vintagewino - MemberI don't have a better example, why should I? I think it will take 5-10 years and will be messy.
But you admit you're basing that on nothing but opinion. Meanwhile dismissing a real world, recent split between a large and small state as not useful. I think 18 months is optimistic at best but 10 years is a very long time, especially when there's already an existing and functioning government waiting to take on power.
I see a documentary has been made about life in the Borders
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there is nothing but opinion to base it on. One is not a valid sample size, even if the example given was a facsimile of what is being proposed for Scotland. Maybe I'm a cynic but I can't see separation being anything but painful over the short to medium term.
Are you expecting 5-10 years of recession?
Don't be silly. The knock on effects will last far longer than that.
vintagewino - Memberthere is nothing but opinion to base it on. One is not a valid sample size
You'll have to forgive me, but an example of one is better than a guess.
The Noers on this thread seem to be raising a lot of important questions that no-one can answer. The Yessers seem to be ignoring them and focusing on hope
To be fair the No ers are going hypothetically this could happen and then getting annoyed that no one can say accurately what will happen in the future Lets look at another example. Will the UK stay in the EU ? We dont know and we cannot say what will happen if we leave. The conclusion is that it is harder to predict the consequence of change than the consequence of the status Quo.
Likewise economically it would be worse to leave the EU [ IMHO] but the UK wont collapse economically if we do.
It not hope to say dont worry it will work out ok in the end [ unless you wish to say it is unrealsitic to suggest iS can exist as a state] even if it is a bit bumpy in the short run. Anything else would be attacked as hopelessly unrealistic by BT anyway
The knock on effects will last far longer than that.
Indeed but what you have to do is list them all ,explain them and quantify them ...best of luck 😉
To be fair the No ers are going hypothetically this could happen and then getting annoyed that no one can say accurately what will happen in the future
The noers' hypotheses are more realistic, imo. Plenty of countries fell into deep shit during this recession, not at all unrealistic to expect Scotland to have some serious trouble and not be able to implement the changes that the people might want.
On the other hand, the yessers' ideas seem to be based on romantic ideals. I reckon they have about as much chance of utopia as we do in the rest of the UK. Which is some, but not any time soon.
ah right so your guesses are realistic and the others are not
Pretty scientific that one molly 😉
all we are doing is saying the view we have /the way we vote is more informed and realistic but they are still "guesses"
I am not sure why you think they are claiming a eutopian view as many , on here and in general, accept it will be economically worse in the short run.
It also interesting how self determination and democratic will of the people is dismissed as "romantic"
To be fair the No ers are going hypothetically this could happen and then getting annoyed that no one can say accurately what will happen in the future
Haven't you previously vociferously criticised the UK government for refusing to say accurately what will happen in the event of a hypothetical yes vote when questioned by the Yes campaign?
molgrips - MemberI reckon they have about as much chance of utopia as we do in the rest of the UK.
Which is exactly why nobody's promising it. It's a weird recurring word though, lots of No people use it, in the same way lots of No people refer to FREEEEDOM. Always think that misrepresenting the other side's argument instead of engaging with it is a bit of an admission of defeat tbh.
I reckon they have about a
That's right molly. YOU reckon... YOU think... YOU don't know anything, you just have an opinion on something you don't really know anything about. Read this thread, long on opinion, short on fact. Plenty of uniformed opinion like yours telling us things will be bad in an independant Scotland because, well, no reason really, just because YOU think so. Just as well your opinion doesn't count then, eh?
The Noers on this thread seem to be raising a lot of important questions that no-one can answer. The Yessers seem to be ignoring them and focusing on hope
This article on the technical matters which will have to be negotiated is interesting: it's not a short list...
Tbh it's deeply irresponsible to ask the Scottish people to vote on this when there's no agreement on exactly what they're voting for...
[url= http://devolutionmatters.wordpress.com/2014/09/09/negotiations-after-a-scottish-referendum-yes-vote/ ]Negotiatons after a Scottish Referendum Yes Vote[/url]
for an independent Scotland to start functioning as an independent state, some key top-order issues have to be resolved. Prominent among these are:the currency the new state will use, and who bears the risks associated with that
the borders of the new state – particularly its maritime borders, which will affect oil and gas reserves unless a distinct arrangement is made for these.
the arrangements for movement of persons between rUK and the new state, both at the border and more generally
whether, when and on what terms the new state will be or become a member of the European Union
the division of the UK’s current National Debt
the division of other UK assets and liabilities – ranging from defence infrastructure to museum and gallery collections
what happens to the existing UK nuclear bases on the Clyde
if rUK is to continue to administer welfare and pensions payments in Scotland for some transitional period, the basis on which it will do so
the means by which outstanding issues are resolved, and what happens if the parties cannot reach agreement by negotiation.
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[url= http://www.buzzfeed.com/tomphillips/the-siege-of-balamory#46co8os ]More here[/url]
Tbh it's deeply irresponsible to ask the Scottish people to vote on this when there's no agreement on exactly what they're voting for...
How are they going to get agreement? The UK government refused to do any negotiations or make any plans. You can't tell people what they're agreeing to if one side refuses to agree on anything.
brooess - MemberTbh it's deeply irresponsible to ask the Scottish people to vote on this when there's no agreement on exactly what they're voting for...
Basically what you're saying is, since Westminster refuses to negotiate before the vote, and calling for a vote is irresponsible unless you know exactly what it's for, Scotland should just forget about independence entirely.
[quote=ninfan said]
Haven't you previously vociferously criticised the UK government for refusing to say accurately what will happen in the event of a hypothetical yes vote when questioned by the Yes campaign?
[s]**** knows it is along thread I could have said almost anything[/s]
What I said was that it was poor* to refuse to negotiate before the vote and then to criticise them for not knowing what will happen
* for the voters not politically - politically it was a wise move
Perhaps it suited both sides to not really know what was actually on offer- wee eck could promise eutopia and BT could engage project fear.
I think one of the reasons the Yessers aren't too worried about all the obstacles real and imaginary that are being thrown up is because of a basic confidence to handle whatever issues independence throws up.
Stalinist Russia demonstrated that 5 year plans don't work because circumstances change. The important thing is to have people who can handle that.
We believe we have those people.
But just in case - Yesterday on my ride somewhere between Bonar Bridge and Ledmore Junction I stumbled upon what may be the secret HQ of the Scottish Republican Army.
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On the 19th of September, we invade!
Which is exactly why nobody's promising it. It's a weird recurring word though, lots of No people use it, in the same way lots of No people refer to FREEEEDOM. Always think that misrepresenting the other side's argument instead of engaging with it is a bit of an admission of defeat tbh.
Bit of hyperbole but I don't think it's an entirely unfair way to describe the way some Yes politicians and supporters are characterising things.
There's an awful lot of awkward questions being asked and a lot of avoiding answering and saying 'it doesn't matter, we will have change - and hope for a brighter, fairer future' etc. It just doesn't sound very convincing - at all.
TBF to Molly - there's some fairly well qualified people agreeing with his un evidenced opinions (yes I'm sure it's been done already).
http://www.salon.com/2014/09/08/paul_krugman_on_scottish_independence_the_risks_are_huge/
grum - Member
...TBF to Molly - there's some fairly well qualified people agreeing with his un evidenced opinions (yes I'm sure it's been done already).
A reasonable point, but there were also an awful lot of very well qualified people involved in stuffing up the economy.
This thread's fun, it's rather like watching every tenth episode of Corry, Eastenders or Dallas; just dipping into every tenth page or so is all that's needed to keep up with what's going on... 😉