[Closed] Osbourne says no to currency union.

You do realise those two things overlap a great deal, don't you?

We can alter the balance.

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An independent Scotland will have a larger defence budget - at the moment only about 60% of the Scottish contribution to defence is spent in Scotland. But that budget will be spent sensibly - no aircraft carriers we don't have aircraft for, no nuclear submarines - so we'll have a more sensible defence force, similar to what Ireland, Sweden etc have.

Blatantly incorrect. Scotlands first Minister said he'd drastically reduce the defence spending and base their marine capacity at Clyde. The Navy said it'd take years to adapt the facility from Submarines to surface ships/to accept any sort of ships there.

It really does worry me- the disaffected voters who think 'my lifes not great now, what have I personally got to lose'?

Their life would be bland/shit in any country as they didn't listen at school. FFS.

I didn't realise i lived in a country of serial gamblers, that has come as a surprise to me.
There absolutley needs to be change however call me old fashioned but i like a bit of detail when people proclaim they can save the world.

The latest Ministry of Defence figures said there was £1.57 billion spent on defence in Scotland in 2007/08. However, in that year Scotland paid in £2.84 billion towards UK defence spending. (GERS 2010-11). There is a huge gap in how much Scotland pays for defence and how much is actually spent in Scotland.

It really does worry me- the disaffected voters who think 'my lifes not great now, what have I personally got to lose'?

Their life would be bland/shit in any country as they didn't listen at school. FFS.

Yes, because that's the only reason people are voting Yes. FFS.

I didn't realise i lived in a country of serial gamblers, that has come as a surprise to me.
There absolutley needs to be change however call me old fashioned but i like a bit of detail when people proclaim they can save the world.

Detail matters - which is why research has shown that the more information people have the more likely they are to vote Yes. So, to get you started, there's lots of good detail in here: http://wingsoverscotland.com/weebluebook/

There is a huge gap in how much Scotland pays for defence and how much is actually spent in Scotland.

Do you predict that Heckler & Koch, Boeing, Radway Green, Airbus etc. will have have domestic Scottish alternatives in iScotland? Or is the reason defence money gets spent outside Scotland mainly down to the fact that we buy lots of things from international companies that have no factories there.

I look forward to seeing the Scottish alternative to a Boeing C17!

[quote=ninfan said]
I look forward to seeing the Scottish alternative to a Boeing C17!

The tartan livery should look quite stunning.

@ben thanks for that, I'll look up the study later (I do see US, Portugal and Italy I quoted are less equal, surprised about Spain's position but these "co-efficient" type measures can be very sensitive). As I have posted before the best way to improve such statistical fairness measures is for the rich people and their money/spending to leave which certainly doesn't help the less well off.

I look forward to seeing the Scottish alternative to a Boeing C17

What are we going to need one of those for? Anyhow, the difference isn't in money spent with Scottish companies, the difference is in defence provision. In other words, where the equipment is based, not where it's made.

As I have posted before the best way to improve such statistical fairness measures is for the rich people and their money/spending to leave which certainly doesn't help the less well off.

Look at the countries further down the list - they're definitely not poorer overall.

Look at the countries further down the list - they're definitely not poorer overall.

Like Greece?

research has shown that the more [b]false[/b] information people have the more likely they are to vote Yes. So, to get you started, there's lots of good detail in here: http://wingsoverscotland.com/weebluebook/

I found at least two incorrect or misleading "facts" on page 2 - possibly three, but I'm being generous. It even points one of them out further on:

Threats that Scotland will be ejected (even temporarily) from the EU are hollow, impossible to ever put into practice.

Anyone, on either side of the debate, claiming to know as a matter of certainty what would happen to an independent Scotland’s EU membership status is a liar.

bencooper - Member

Detail matters - which is why research has shown that the more information people have the more likely they are to vote Yes. So, to get you started, there's lots of good detail in here: http://wingsoverscotland.com/weebluebook/

More like there's a lot of misleading statements and assertions based on only listening to people who support your viewpoint.

[url= http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/the-wee-blue-book-of-lies.html ]http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/the-wee-blue-book-of-lies.html[/url]

Enjoy.

NZCol - Member
...There absolutley needs to be change however call me old fashioned but i like a bit of detail when people proclaim they can save the world.

We're not out to save the world, simply to govern ourselves.

And as we are perfectly competent to do that, it makes sense to do it.

We can argue over the minutae as much as we like, but it comes down to Scots want independence, and Scots are capable of running their own country.

After independence, we will be eternally grateful to the UK Establishment for their co-ordinated campaign of lies, threats, and sneers, because that has made many otherwise passive Scots abandon their traditional party vote, and get out on the streets and involve themselves in the Yes campaign.

9 days to go... 🙂

Threats that Scotland will be ejected (even temporarily) from the EU are hollow, impossible to ever put into practice.

Anyone, on either side of the debate, claiming to know as a matter of certainty what would happen to an independent Scotland’s EU membership status is a liar.

When we finally get a Free Yorkshire anyone using "paradigm" will have to have "I'm a reet berk" tattooed across there forehead.

We can argue over the minutae as much as we like

Except most of the yes supporters actually want to ignore all that and [b]hope[/b] it all works out.

We can argue over the minutae as much as we like, but it comes down to Scots want independence, and Scots are capable of running their own country.

After independence, we will be eternally grateful to the UK Establishment for their co-ordinated campaign of lies, threats, and sneers, because that has made many otherwise passive Scots abandon their traditional party vote, and get out on the streets and involve themselves in the Yes campaign.

If there is a Yes vote Scotland is going to face the very harsh reality that the Yes campaign have misrepresented the future on a massive scale, possibly the largest ever "Big Lie"

it actually says that wow

I think that says a lot either about the level of understanding, or the level of deception of whoever wrote that. But I didn't really expect anything better from WOS.

aracer - Member
"We can argue over the minutae as much as we like"
Except most of the yes supporters actually want to ignore all that and hope it all works out.

Just like voters in every general election hope it's going to work out.

Or are you saying we are incompetent to govern ourselves?

jambalaya - Member
@epic
51/49 (best poll favouring Yes) hardly justifies saying "Scots want independence"

And if that was the result in a general election, what would you call it?

research has shown that the more false information people have the more likely they are to vote Yes.

Nice edit, unfortunately the research shows differently:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-more-informed-favour-yes-1-3534372

[url= http://www.lewrockwell.com/2014/09/tyler-durden/uk-establishment-in-full-panic-mode/ ]I was sent this. Interesting perspective.[/url]

So the Times runs a survey (how many people were surveyed?) and then runs a massive 'oh no headline its going to be a yes'. Take that with a pinch of salt.

That's pretty much what opinion polls are. Just over a 1,000 people were polled by YouGov, and because it is run by YouGov, it's taken as a mainstream poll. It could be accurate, it may not be. The point is it is the first mainstream poll to put Yes ahead of No.

If you want to criticise YouGov, perhaps look at their website and find some contact details. I'm sure your detailed insights into this process will be useful to them.

hora - Member
So the Times runs a survey (how many people were surveyed?) and then runs a massive 'oh no headline its going to be a yes'. Take that with a pinch of salt.

[url= http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2014/09/when-the-push-polling-has-to-stop/ ]Have a read of this[/url]

We have been saying for some time that the polls don't seem to reflect what we are seeing and hearing on the ground.

(But it may be different further south in Scotland)

aracer - Member

We can argue over the minutae as much as we like

Except most of the yes supporters actually want to ignore all that and hope it all works out.

Increasingly it is the no campaign that is hoping it will all work out. I suppose we can expect to see the suggestion that a clear majority in favour isn't realy a mandate to break up the UK,as touched on above. Despite the way the general election has given us the current coalition.

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In all seriousness, Panelbase closed its panel for independence vote some time ago, I don't believe Yougov did!

There has been some discussion on Twitter of an organised signup of Yes campaigners,
hoping to influence Panelbase polls. Not all of the quoted posts actually relate to political
polls, but the point is still one to consider. In fact new joiners have had no significant
effect on our results but we do recognise the potential for abuse of the system if people
on either side were able to coordinate a mass sign up of new members. As a precaution,
between now and the referendum we will not be including results from panel members
who joined more recently than June 2013. This only applies to political polls. We may
still invite people to take part for our own internal analysis, but their data will not be
used in the published results. We are also considering other measures to ensure that
sample sources have no undue effect on results.

Increasingly it is the no campaign that is hoping it will all work out.

Completely missing the point - we are talking about what happens in the event of a yes vote here? A lot of people on the no side are quite sure it won't all work out in the way most of the yes supporters seem to be hoping.

The point remains, there is a shift in momentum. If that is the best "NO" can do this close to the election (good to see the parties still falling out and blaming each other for the current implosion)Then good luck with the post split carve up. All of a sudden Scotland is offered three different sets of laws by three different parties. Different perspective to THM,but a buggers mess right enough.
As an aside; I assume that since 51% isn't a clear mandate for, then neither is it a clear mandate against if the boot is on the other foot.

A lot of people on the no side are quite sure it won't all work out in the way most of the yes supporters seem to be hoping.

Then good luck with the post split carve up.

I'm sure we won't need that, not when the GE will have robustness in the independence negotiations as a key policy feature and they'll all be outdoing each other at how tough they can be.

Just spoke to my Scottish colleague, he says his friends and family North of the border say if you are a No voter you keep quiet as otherwise the intimidation is significant. He also said the divisions between the two camps are very deep, whatever the result these are not going to heal quickly.

[i]What will be interesting is watching Osborne desperately row back from the "no currency union" thing.[/i]

Funny...on Sunday morning he said 'no ifs, no buts, NO CURRENCY UNION!'

Sticking with my 60% 'no' prediction, as the 'no voters' are keeping their heads down. Seems to me, only the 'yes' campaigners are the vocal ones with a lot of agitators involved that the 'no' voters want to avoid having anything to do with. Can't say I blame them seeing some of the tactics involved.

Edit: oh just seen above post saying much the same!

And if that was the result in a general election, what would you call it?

Just spoke to my Scottish colleague, he says his friends and family North of the border say if you are a No voter you keep quiet as otherwise the intimidation is significant. He also said the divisions between the two camps are very deep, whatever the result these are not going to heal quickly.

Anecdotes aren't data. Survation did a survey and found that 8% of No voters had had abuse, for Yes voters the figure is 21%. You only need to look at the @BritNatAbuseBot feed to get an idea of the constant stream of it. No are getting increasingly desperate, and a good strategy when you're desperate is to try to goad the other side, to portray the other side as bullying. A compliant media helps a lot with that - just look how much coverage the egg incident got.

In reality, there aren't massive rifts. I know a bunch of No voters, there's no animosity, we happily kid each other about it.

Funny...on Sunday morning he said 'no ifs, no buts, NO CURRENCY UNION!'

And the pound immediately tanked. Clever move, George 😉

Just spoke to my Scottish colleague, he says his friends and family North of the border say if you are a No voter you keep quiet as otherwise the intimidation is significant. He also said the divisions between the two camps are very deep, whatever the result these are not going to heal quickly.

Where I work I think I'm the only Yes voter and there's constant ridicule as well as reasonable debate. None of it can be taken seriously (Salmond being out Scottish dictator type stuff) but it does get tiresome. There's a lot of condescension as well.

[i]What will be interesting is watching Osborne desperately row back from the "no currency union" thing.[/i]

One less thing to be interested in then...

[i]And the pound immediately tanked. Clever move, George [/i]

So it didn't tank as a result of the latest poll then?

I have had absolutely no abuse face to face whether talking to friends or workmates who are no voters or whilst out canmpaigning for Yes. Online / phone canvassing theres been some but very little. There are bampots on both sides.

There's a lot of condescension as well

And of course we never get that on here 😀

Many other countries manage to balance bisiness and society much better, we can try to copy them.

Like where, specifically?
And how will iScotland change the power dynamic?

You'll notice it when you grow up, ben.

Just spoke to my Scottish colleague, he says his friends and family North of the border say if you are a No voter you keep quiet as otherwise the intimidation is significant.

[i]I have had absolutely no abuse face to face whether talking to friends or workmates who are no voters or whilst out canmpaigning for Yes[/i]

No one is suggesting you would, seeing as the 'No' voters aren't interested in engaging the 'yes' campaigners.