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Covid is not going away it will be endemic. The point is to get enough people vaccinated every year to make it manageable.
We would be doing the same, if the developing world didn’t see China as a better bet.
China doesn't place human rights restrictions on its investment / aid.
And yet it can and is willing to provide its vaccine at cost to the developing world, whilst the west harps on about human rights but does its utmost best to help cause human rights tragedies like ISIS and trip over itself infighting over vaccine supply.
Refer to the comment on the west staring up its own arsehole from earlier.
tpbiker - dunno where you get 1:10 from but my experience its a lot lot lower than that. I know dozens of people who have had it. Most were completely asymptomatic. 2 had symptoms beyond 2 weeks, one of those was fine after 4 and I do not know what happened with the other one. this was in people across the whole age range
You were not told that your asthma was not an increased risk - just that the data shows those with mild not moderate asthma and younger than 50 that increased risk is slight
And yet it can and is willing to provide its vaccine at cost to the developing world, whilst the west harps on about human rights but does its utmost best to help cause human rights tragedies like ISIS and trip over itself infighting over vaccine supply.
I never said implicitly or explicitly that the west were perfect. I am stating that a major reason countries like Chinese investment over western is because there is no human rights requirements.
tpbiker – dunno where you get 1:10 from but my experience its a lot lot lower than that. I know dozens of people who have had it. Most were completely asymptomatic. 2 had symptoms beyond 2 weeks, one of those was fine after 4 and I do not know what happened with the other one. this was in people across the whole age range
You were not told that your asthma was not an increased risk – just that the data shows those with mild not moderate asthma and younger than 50 that increased risk is slight
This TP. I know plenty that age who’ve had it, my wife was likely the worst, she lost her taste for 8 or so weeks.
For those under 50 the risk, be it of death or long Covid is low. You do much higher risk stuff every day.
The problem with the jcvi guidance is they vaccinate based on likelihood of mortality.
It’s based on a range of factors of which mortality is only one. Others include hospital admission rates and ability for hospitals to do other things, sources of high transmission (sadly care homes staff in our area are 5-6x more likely to get it and they then spread it), the need to protect front line NHS staff and so on.
Surely the Uber rich oil producing nations should have a rummage down the back of their collective sofas?
I know oil prices are low today, but over the last 50 years or so the income has been mind blowing
And it's totally in their interest to facilitate. The oil price will rise as all the lockdown restrictions lift globally as demand picks up.
Would be some 'tribal' issue in some respect, became 200 years ago your neighbour might have stolen a camal therefore his great grandchildren dont deserve a jab
One of the guys I work with, fit healthy if a bit of a gym bunny, got COVID back in late spring. He’s still working n long term sick and we’re not expecting him back soon. He’s in his 30s.
That of course is one individual and anecdotal. But it does affect some young, fit and healthy types.
And I do know a fair number of folk who have just been laid up unable to get out of bed for a week and then started to recover.
Of all the folk I know who’ve had it, the fitest seem to take longer to get back on stream, but that might be because the standard they are trying to get back to is higher.
Long covid affects a proportion of those who get it and are symptomatic. I thought it was 1 in 20 of those. It's not 1 in 10 of the population.
Edit: here you go:
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/long-covid
Don't worry about those poor foreign places. We'll send over our asymptomatic vaccinated retirees as poverty tourists to help rescue their economies.
That of course is one individual and anecdotal. But it does affect some young, fit and healthy types.
Of course it does but how many and how much is the question. If the impact to under 50's is on a par with lots of other issues then is it worth a country being in lockdown for it?
The risk seems to be that the under 50's will continue to spread it around and there will be more and more mutations to the point that the vaccine everyone is currently having won't work and we will almost be back at square one.
The risk seems to be that the under 50’s will continue to spread it around and there will be more and more mutations to the point that the vaccine everyone is currently having won’t work and we will almost be back at square one.
Which is the point I was making on the last page.
I sometimes think the only time we’ll get back to normal is once we’ve reached herd immunity.
Is herd immunity from Covid even a think, I was under the impression that immunity without a vaccine only lasted a few months?
joepud
Full Member
I sometimes think the only time we’ll get back to normal is once we’ve reached herd immunity.Is herd immunity from Covid even a think, I was under the impression that immunity without a vaccine only lasted a few months?
I think how long the vaccine lasts is one of the great unknowns, and will be a factor we'll find out on the current phase 4 mass trials we're doing just now. ie the current roll out.
There you go TJ and lunge, taken from the ons. Whether it be 1 in 10, or 1 on 20, you aren't going to convince me that it's not serious for young folks, so no point in getting into a debate about it with me.
Lunge, you cite anecdotal evidence. My anecdotal evidence is I know 2 folk that had it, one aged 44 one 36. One took 6 months to get back to normal. The other ended up in hospital with breathing difficulties before Christmas and is still off work.
Fact is, if so many young folks end up getting the virus, even if only a small percentage get long covid, that'll still be a huge number of people. According to one mp who was discussing it, the number suffering could already be 300000.
Should over 50s in other countries be vaccinated before the under 50s here?
Interesting question. The obvious moral answer is yes they should. However as usual the devil is in the detail. Would we be the only first world country doing this? Is it fair to people in this country who have lost a lot of money due to the ongoing lockdown? What if other countries see vaccinating the under 50s as being more important?
Is herd immunity from Covid even a think, I was under the impression that immunity without a vaccine only lasted a few months?
That is precisely the point of vaccinations, to provide herd immunity.
If the impact to under 50’s is on a par with lots of other issues then is it worth a country being in lockdown for it?
Are they though or is it the case that the impact on under 50's when combined with lockdown measures, is on a par with other issues? That is one thing that seems to be being missed when talking about how "bad/Not bad" covid is. All the data that we have was gathered WITH massive restrictions and changes to our way of life. Take away the restrictions and what else will change?
I should add though that despite being under 50 I expect to be in group 6 as I do have underlying health conditions.
Not going to debate at all TP.
It's all about weighing up risk, as many things are. For me, as a healthy 40 year old, the risks are not high enough for me to worry about once the vulnerable are vaccinated. Your views may be different, and that's fine.
I guess at some point, that risk decision is one we'll all have to make.
Where does one draw the line? Helping poor countries in Africa/South America, other western nations that are significantly more antiVax than us? The countries most in need may not actually be the poorest, as they have a lack of old and vunerable people to begin with.
What happens in the former colonies where it might be seen as Britain throwing their weight around trying to get back to the old days - take your jab and thank your masters?
And also, how best can we help?
-Just giving them vaccines that we otherwise would use on our fit and healthy?
-helping the world set up a better/more efficient system/vaccine (I can't see countries with questionable power grids and large ground areas being well served by a vaccine that needs -70C freezers)?
-just paying for it?
-sending our boys in green to set up vaccination centres?
All the data that we have was gathered WITH massive restrictions and changes to our way of life. Take away the restrictions and what else will change?
Exactly..
300000 estimated long covid cases and we've been in lockdown pretty much since March.
Lift those restrictions and pretty much every non vaccinated person will have had it by end of the year. That's a hell of a lot of ill folks if that ons stat of 1 in 10 is to be believed.
1 in 10, or 1 on 20, you aren’t going to convince me that it’s not serious for young folks, so no point in getting into a debate about it with me
No one's debating it can't be serious but your original statement wasn't accurate.
The risk of dying with it is tiny. The risk of long covid is 1 in 10
That statement suggests that there's a 1 in 10 chance to the population as a whole of suffering long covid issues. It's not. It's a 1 in 10 chance of those who get it and also suffer symptoms in the first place. Big difference as a lot of people won't get it, and of those that do, a sizeable number are asymptomatic.
Long covid is the thing about this that scares me even though it's not necessarily that logical a fear for me. I'm in my mid forties.
It’s a 1 in 10 chance of those who get it and also suffer symptoms in the first place
Well I thought it was obvious that It was referring to people who got the virus! Fair point if it's only 1 in 10 symptomatic folks, however i was under the impression that's still 80% of those infected.
What frightens me most is all the folks getting the vaccine who then think the rules don't apply. Just read one comment on the asthma uk fb page when someone said that they'd be getting the vaccine..
'Hope so. And I'm Group 6. Its worrying me so much because otherwise hubby will have his second before I get my first and he's already planned things to do'
What do these people not understand. Are they simply stupid, or just selfish.
TBF that independent article isn't very clear and neither is the quote from the doctor they've got.
In order to having ongoing symptoms you have to first have symptoms. 🙂
I share your concerns though. I think there are quite a few who think it's party time as soon as they've been jabbed (or at best 2 weeks later). I think it also likely that the government will expect everyone to go back to normal life some time in march.
I'm not returning to normal life until I've been jabbed and that's unlikely to happen until the autumn of imagine.
Combination of stupid and ignorance with a side order of 'well I'm alright now'
One of my mums friends (mum is shielding) told her that now she has had the vaccine (first dose only) she could get the train down from Doncaster to visit mum.
My mum was not impressed and pointed a few things out to her.
Edit: I'm not planning on returning to pre pandemic behaviours for a long time if ever. The world has changed and people need to realise that.
My changes will be relatively minor such as use a mask more and make sure of space and not go to crowded areas.
I’m not returning to normal life until I’ve been jabbed and that’s unlikely to happen until the autumn of imagine
Yep, that's my view as well. But I think we'll be in the minority.
That said, it all depends on whetjer the jab reduces transmission. Assuming that you are less likely to get it if you've already had it in last 6 months, combined with a huge number of population having the vaccine, it may just mean herd immunity is closer than we think
Big if though, and until I see some science on it I wont believe it.
I’m not returning to normal life until I’ve been jabbed and that’s unlikely to happen until the autumn of imagine
I'm the same, but I'm intrigued what people will and won't do?
I'd happily sit in a restaurant which has measures in place and would sit with a small group in a beer garden. I'll also meet groups of friends outside for a run/bike ride and would entertain a UK holiday.
Not sure I'd be jumping on a plane or going to a nightclub mind you. I'm also not sure I'd be meeting groups of any size in someone's house.
Not sure I’d be jumping on a plane or going to a nightclub mind you. I’m also not sure I’d be meeting groups of any size in someone’s house.
Judging by what I've read online it's all bets are off. Cruise ships kicking off again in July for those that can prove they've been vaccinated and apparently coach tour bookings for the over 50s are through the roof! I can not think of any environment more conducive to transmission than a coach trip!!!
Long covid is the thing about this that scares me even though it’s not necessarily that logical a fear for me. I’m in my mid forties.
I've been wiped out with long covid for ten months now and counting. I know four people - friends I knew before this thing - who have it in varying degrees. One is in his 20s, one in his 30s and the other two, 40s, I think. I'm in my 50s. All men, all very fit and active.
I wouldn't wish this on anyone. It's not just 'fatigue' or 'tiredness', people are suffering serious neurological disorders, ongoing breathing difficulties, heart inflammation, brain fog bordering on dementia, autonomic disorders including POTS and similar posture-based issues. For months I was doing well if I could manage to walk around a football pitch without relapsing for weeks.
So far there's virtually no idea of causation and no treatment. Many GPs are still telling long covid sufferers that they have 'anxiety'. It's not very nice.
But anyway, two points. One is that age and fitness are seemingly irrelevant when it comes to long covid, though gender seems to be an issue with more women suffering than men. The other is that even at the lower levels people are talking about - and it's probably under-reported, some people simply don't realise what's happened - it has the potential to be a health crisis of its own, both for individuals and for the population as a whole, particularly if we let the virus 'burn through' the under 50s.
Depressingly you know that this is exactly what is going to happen when Boris can't bear the idea of people no longer being able to go to the pub.
Linking our own vaccination policy to worldwide distribution seems unrealistic on all sorts of levels. It's more important that we do our utmost to facilitate distribution of vaccines on a global level, I seem to remember that AZ has already pledged to sell the vaccine at cost to developing countries. Rather than agonising over moral dilemmas that aren't ever going to be concrete ones, we should be subsidising the cost of vaccines to those nations who are going to struggle to afford the price of vaccination even at cost.
I had a version of this conversation with my parents (who started it). They're both mid-70s, both classed as highly vulnerable and Dad has just had his first jab. They're grateful for being first in the line, but wondered whether or not it was more logical to vaccinate younger age groups first, teens, 20s, 30s, key workers, teachers etc. Those are the people that are out and about, studying, starting careers, having kids, going to pubs, nightclubs etc. My parents were thinking about it in a purely utilitarian framework - the greatest number of hours well lived perhaps. Frankly, although they've not been out for ten months, at most they potter about the garden anyway. So while their lives are sort of protected for a few years, younger generations' lives remain on hold while the virus spreads among them. They would have given up their vaccine slot today, to wait a few more months. Obviously I'm pleased that they've got it but it doesn't actually change their life much in the near future anyway.
I had a version of this conversation with my parents (who started it). They’re both mid-70s, both classed as highly vulnerable and Dad has just had his first jab. They’re grateful for being first in the line, but wondered whether or not it was more logical to vaccinate younger age groups first, teens, 20s, 30s, key workers, teachers etc. Those are the people that are out and about, studying, starting careers, having kids, going to pubs, nightclubs etc. My parents were thinking about it in a purely utilitarian framework – the greatest number of hours well lived perhaps. Frankly, although they’ve not been out for ten months, at most they potter about the garden anyway. So while their lives are sort of protected for a few years, younger generations’ lives remain on hold while the virus spreads among them. They would have given up their vaccine slot today, to wait a few more months. Obviously I’m pleased that they’ve got it but it doesn’t actually change their life much in the near future anyway.
My parents are the same, and I believe there is some debate about it in the scientific community.
Politically though, can you imagine the backlash, "Partying youngsters vaccinated as pensioners told to stay indoors", "Pubs full as elderly told they're not a priority".
Politically
Boris's core voting base would not be having that I'm sure!
Tbf it would make alot more sense if the vaccine prevented transmission, but we don't know that yet
Indonesia is taking exactly that approach. The rest of the world isn't.
Well your post has cheered me up greatly!!😂
Hope you are on the mend and feeling better soon
It's an interesting discussion, if that stat bears out - a 35 year old is statistically more likely to suffer long covid, than an 80 year old is to die. We save a whole load of folk for a few years, and have a raft of people with long term respiratory damage?, the folk that are out and about working and exposing themselves to the virus to keep the economy going....
Suppose it's that hindsight thing again, isn't it.
Not other European countries no.
You do realise what Charles Michel was getting at when he complained that Pfizer weren't respecting their contracts? If the pharma companies continue to take the piss out of EU members there will first be legal action and then, well, look at EU treaties and law and see where they could go.
I understood what he he was saying is happening but like him won't type it, and I also understand what he could do, but won't type theat either. Not surprising then that the threatened delivery dealys magically disappeared.
With them threatening Pfizer they are being really think and taking a short termism approach.
Basically Pfizer are restructuring their plant in Belgium too allow a much higher output. So by reducing output for a few weeks they can provide a much higher output after that and for a longer time. Chances are the delivery they then got for throwing the toys about was destined for a different country with less impact.
Basically the Italian government is being Billy big balls so it looks good for the media.
I don't know what has gone on with the az ones other than the media reporting production issues. Guess what, that happens, I have heard of million pound (production cost) batches of medicines getting binned due to production errors. The difference is with those medicines is that there is usually a stockpile already with the vaccine there is none
if that stat bears out – a 35 year old is statistically more likely to suffer long covid, than an 80 year old is to die. We save a whole load of folk for a few years, and have a raft of people with long term respiratory damage?
Yep..
Although I'm assuming that long covid is an all encapsulating term for symptoms over 3 months. I'm hoping that most of those cases will be feeling a bit shitty and losing focus a bit at work, rather than enlarged hearts, permanently scarred lungs and being confined to a wheelchair for the forseable.
a 35 year old is statistically more likely to suffer long covid, than an 80 year old is to die
Not sure I follow your working on this?
I’m assuming that long covid is an all encapsulating term for symptoms over 3 months
5 weeks and over was the definition I saw. Any symptom from a mild cough upwards.
Not sure I follow your working on this?
I think his logic is that young folks have a 1 in 10 chance of long covid (as reported by the ons - and yes it's one in 10 that show symptoms etc etc), yet if you are 80 you have around a 1 in 12 chance of dying with it.
Tbf I'd much rather have a 1 in 10 chance of long covid than one 1 in 12 of dying, but it does somewhat underline the health crisis we are going to be facing. Badlywireddog's post makes very sobering reading.
That is precisely the point of vaccinations, to provide herd immunity.
Correct me if im wrong, but I was under the impression heard immunity was something we gained from being exposed to the virus like say chickenpoxs? Giving people a vaccine isn't really herd immunity right its immunising a population. I maybe wrong though im not even am armchair scientists.
I might be wrong but I was under the impression that herd immunity was where enough of the population is immune then the virus cannot spread and then {kinda} dies out as it has "nowhere to go".
That immunity can come from prior infection or vaccination.
Probably wrong but sounds good!
chaps, get thee to the main thread.