Liz! Truss!

If Liz gets replaced next week they still have two years. The polls are a pretty much direct result of Truss and Starmer slightly waking up can only account for a couple of %. Also polls are polls and people will vent via them but when it comes to an election in 2 years time with a different (more popular?) leader it will be no Labour landslide as the Truss 2 months will be long forgotten as will Boris' shit so if they put Boris back in he would have a good chance of wining for the tories.

My concern is that it's not just Truss.

The system is broken, the culture in Westminster politics appalling. We've a raft of MP's in every party who are self serving or influenced from outwith. Yes the Conservatives have taken this to the next level, and then some.

But I'm not seeing a unifying, intelligent, clear headed and respected replacement as PM, nor many in the opposition either.

It's a sad state of affairs.

No doubt the huge swing of recent weeks has been largely driven by Truss's time in charge; it's not just the mini budget though, and the impact that has had but the vision behind it that has finally become crystal clear to many swing voters, that they are just in it for themselves. Although they can row back on 45p tax rates and Corp tax, people have seen what they stand for and that can't be easily reversed.

It's also driven by the sheer incompetence of the whole gig, not just that an intellectual cabbage gets the top job, but that a few thousand people get the say over who that person is finally, and any validity to govern has disappeared with that. Truss's PC yesterday cemented it, it was worse than the AI bot that crashed at the select committee earlier in the week as this is supposed to be our PM.

It's like any company failing; it happens steadily, and then all at once. The current incarnation of the Tory party has finally fallen apart but it was only really a matter of when and how badly, after all 13/14 years is about the natural time that we change anyway.

Whether they can sufficiently reverse what the people think of them to avoid a huge majority; well as Ernie says a lot can change fast. But to me it depends on

1/ Who's in charge when the GE comes - if Truss remains then unless she does a Lazarus they're toast. Maybe a unity / moderate leader might convince some of the swing voters back, but depends how much capital Labour make of it being a thin veneer over a party that is rotten inside.

2/ when the GE comes; how or shortly with a new leader then it's all the past few weeks and the threat of what's coming. In 2 years time at the end of the fixed term - depends how shit the next two years turns out. That's a gamble.

3/ What Starmer and labour do - whenever it comes they have a loaded hand of cards, all the aces, but they still have to decide how to play them. Right now they can sit and wait and in doing so improve the hand further, the next couple of weeks aren't going to be easy for the tories no matter what they do.

My concern is that the longer she stays on for the worse state the country will be in, so far she's tanked both the pound and interest rates.

How much longer until the country is completely done for?

My concern is that the longer she stays on for the worse state the country will be in, so far she’s tànked both the pound and interest rates.

It should (hopefully!) get to a point where the party itself is calling for her to go or even changing the 1922 rules to call another VONC.
At this point though, it'll just be re-arranging the deck chairs. The Tories know they're pretty much screwed now so the question is do they hang on in there for some last-minute asset stripping and self-enrichment or just call a GE?

Jeremy Hunt still committed to low taxation low spending "growth" mantra that Truss has been whittering on about. He's talking on R4 now about "making difficult spending decisions"

How much longer until the country is completely done for?

IMHO your already done for,look at the state of it as regards to the nhs and the ambulance service,getting an appointment for a doctor and stuff like getting a passport/driving licence and people seem to have happily accepted the new norm of energy domestic bills as double what they were and on top of this the mortgage rate is still likely to go up.

What do you define done for ?

What I find bizarre trawling the twitternet is how much vitriol there is for Truss/Hunt among conservative supporters, including members. There's tons of them out there calling truss a remaining liar, saying bring back Boris, but these must be the same group of people who voted for Truss? I cannot find a single conservative party public member that has anything good to say about truss/Kwasi/Hunt and yet the current situation is as a direct result of their doing.

I think that is the conservatives biggest issue; they seem to hate even themselves and their own decisions. If they wanted a Boris continuation candidate why didn't they pick Rishi?

Credit where credit is due. The Labour conference had a positive effect as regards public support this year. The contrast between the two big conferences party was stark. The choice clear.

Yeah, but the stark contrast was only possible because of Truss.

I would love to know what she said behind the scenes to get elected, because it was blatantly obvious from the outset she would be sh1t.

My suspicion is that she said to the con party members that if they vote for her she will cut the top rate of tax.

She is an abomination. Something must change to ensure blatant chronic incompetence doesn’t find its way to the top again.

bring back Boris

ive seen this so many times over the last two days. And there he his, waiting in the wings…

I would love to know what she said behind the scenes to get elected, because it was blatantly obvious from the outset she would be sh1t.

if you look at the tory home polls the party members have loved her for years. She did a very good job (either intentionally or just by virtue of her own beliefs) of playing along to their dreams.
Part of why she is in the crap with them now is that they have to decide whether its their dreams which are shit or her.
No contest there on what they are going to chose.

I don't think Boris has a chance of coming back, the PCP would havr to enable it and they kicked him. I also think they may just learned the lesson that kpletting their core supporters choise a leader is a really bsd idea as the PLP did after Corbyn.

The sensible option is to call a HE and leave to sort the mess out, they might even get back in 5 years time. That would require a lot of Tory Mps losing their seats for the good of the party so not likely.

Option 2 is Starmer style clear out with a more moderate leader, the trouble is they also gave to fix the mess.

Labour will win the next GE, what the Tories set in train, and Truss made doubly worse, is not going to be fixed before the next GE.

However underestimate how uninformed and myopic a lot of the electorate are, combine that them having no concept of responsibility when voting, they will vote for what they like the sound of regardless of how practical it is and then moan about politicians not delivering. They will then make the same irresponsible choices next time.

The system is broken, the culture in Westminster politics appalling. We’ve a raft of MP’s in every party who are self serving or influenced from outwith. Yes the Conservatives have taken this to the next level, and then some.

But I’m not seeing a unifying, intelligent, clear headed and respected replacement as PM, nor many in the opposition either.

It’s a sad state of affairs.

All of this. We need someone making a clear case that everything is ****ed in all aspects of society - literally from maternity to end of life care - and we need a 20 year plan to clean it up and sort it out and rebuild a better, fairer society.

I'm not sure enough of the public would get behind it. The first few months of lockdown gave me hope, I may have misjudged it.

ive seen this so many times over the last two days. And there he his, waiting in the wings…

Be mad if they did, because all those scandals around him waiting in the wings too....

Also he wants cash not responsibility

I think that is the conservatives biggest issue; they seem to hate even themselves and their own decisions.

Because all their own decisions are shit and the consequences of implementing them means things get worse and there's a limit on how much you can make things worse while blaming everyone else.

Tory policies are all a pile of ideological bullshit or "maintain status quo", most of which don't work well when exposed to the real world.

Some of it is very long-term though - Cameron's policy of "cutting the green crap" is only now coming home to roost with soaring energy prices and a realisation that the UK has bugger all back up.
All the road building policies have long been shite when we should have been investing in rail, bus and active travel but that's only now becoming apparent with soaring fuel costs.

I've had to deal with Conservative councillors in a previous job and they were all absolute dinosaurs. Zero progressive policies or ideas and that mentality goes right through the party to the top of Government.

The system is broken, the culture in Westminster politics appalling. We’ve a raft of MP’s in every party who are self serving or influenced from outwith. Yes the Conservatives have taken this to the next level, and then some.

But I’m not seeing a unifying, intelligent, clear headed and respected replacement as PM, nor many in the opposition either.

They don’t bring anything to the role they take on,in a job you’d be be expected to actually be able to your role,the current skill they bring is weaselling your way to the top position which doesn’t really prepare them for the positions they take.

You used to have a brain and the weaselling but that doesn’t seem to be the case nowadays.

I’d like to get some fresh young blood get a chance who haven’t yet been corrupted rather than yet another rich person.

From the sounds of it Hunt is going to completely tear up the mini budget. He’s openly saying there were mistakes. Makes Truss look even more incompetent. It’s impossible to see how she can recover any authority. I almost feel sorry for her, it’s clear she was just completely unsuited to the job.

Makes Truss look even more incompetent.

At least now we know why Hunt accepted the job. It’s pretty clear that he is now now PM in all but name. It’s an interesting game the tories are playing, replacing Truss without actually replacing her. They’ll hang her out to dry until she smells the coffee and resigns and Hunt will take over.

In yesterday's press conference you can almost see her gulping in disbelief and anxiety with every question. Panicking, trying to seek out the "friendly" journalists, repeating the same words after each question. You really have to wonder how she manages to process it all. It's like she really thought she was clever, popular and would be lauded for her decisions but she's surprised at the reaction.

Having appointed Hunt I can see her disappearing for a while. Either that or just accepting she isn't the right person (well, she's the right person but everyone else is wrong and doesn't deserve/appreciate her) and then sloping off.

Next PMQs might be interesting - just to see the reaction from her own benches.

If they wanted a Boris continuation candidate why didn’t they pick Rishi?

2 reasons:
1- he did the dirty to Boris resigning
2- they’re racists.

Next PMQs might be interesting

Wouldn’t be surprised if she pulls a sickie. I reckon the chances of her catching covid in the next couple of days are high.

Oh, I'll be surprised if she manages to get to one in this session of parliament.

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Since 2016 this lot have turned the UK into a banana republic. They’ve ‘Taken Back Control’ alright. They don’t even bother to pretend they’re interested in anything other than lining their mates pockets at the expense of the rest of us

‘The Markets’ might be breathing a sigh of relief as Hunt appears not be be a blithering incompetent like Truss and Kwatang, but what he is is a hatchet man.

I expect he’ll be preparing huge cuts to public services. She may have backtracked on corporation tax yesterday, but that still leaves a 40 billion pound hole in the accounts

Still don’t think Hunt will end up PM, but he is effectively in charge ‘till Truss is replaced. They must be desperately running around trying to work out how and when they run that leadership campaign, not if… especially as whoever wins will be under huge pressure to call an election. Letting another leader pick their own fresh way to damage the UK and the lives of most people within it, without a public vote when the public so clearly do not want them in office anymore, could end their party for generations.

‘The Markets’ might be breathing a sigh of relief

Very true. The ‘markets’ get their way, the rest of us get poorer public services and higher taxes. If ever there was a demonstration of everything that’s wrong with this corrupt system this is it. Meanwhile the bankers still have their inflated bonuses.

The markets getting their way is good for most people,the negative impact on pensions and mortgages was there plain to be seen.

It's clear that magic money tree theory isn't favoured by the people who actually manage the financials in this country. With that off the table and the markets saying no to unfunded borrowing it only leaves cuts and tax rises.

It didn't have to be this way, BREXIT, removing renewables subsidies, blocking cheap onshore renewables, encouraging consumer debt, all things the Tories have actively done have got us to this point. Most governments fall due to not doing things, this government has created it's own downfall.

kimbers

So why on earth would they go for a GE now if the best they can hope for is a hung parliament?

Because they aren't a "they" in any cohesive sense but rather a club of mutual self interest.
Right now they are a club of non-mutual self interest.
The MP's need relelecting at some point by the wider electorate, the Conservative party members (that elected Truss) got their self interest well and truly screwed over.
The golf clubs and shooting clubs will be buzzing .. some of the poorer members might have to sell one of the range rovers or a golf buggy and the Swiss Franc is making this winters hols more expensive even though they paid months ago ... and that's most certainly not what they voted for. Their pensions they worked decades for have been decimated (at best) and their savings handed over the superrich.

The swing voters, including many former red wall probably haven't seen the full economic impact yet.
Many won't have checked their pensions, they haven't seen the full cost of the drop in sterling on their buying power etc. and most of them are too busy working to be as involved as the typical Tory voter in managing their "wealth".

Now is maybe the best time.... non of this is going to get better.

It’s clear that magic money tree theory isn’t favoured by the people who actually manage the financials in this country. With that off the table and the markets saying no to unfunded borrowing it only leaves cuts and tax rises.

You have this the wrong way round. It was 'magic money tree' theory that saved pension funds from collapse. MMT, or more accurately QE is firmly on the table, because it's the the most effective way to control the bond yields which underpin everything from mortgages, pensions and the cost of govt borrowing. The markets rightly don't want 'unfunded' tax cuts, but they absolutely do want more QE, or 'magic money tree theory' as you call it. Everything that's happened in the past month supports MMT, rather than discrediting it.

It didn’t have to be this way, BREXIT, removing renewables subsidies, blocking cheap onshore renewables, encouraging consumer debt, all things the Tories have actively done have got us to this point.

Indeed

Among all the talk of the top rate of tax, bankers bonuses etc, Mad Lizzie has been endlessly falling back on and banging on about her 'energy price cap'

But the way she's done this is to borrow money to effectively underwrite the profits of the energy companies and we're all going to end up paying for it through increased taxation and cuts to public services. Its a bit rich to sell it as some grand act of benevolence

Its just another example of funnelling huge amounts of public money into the pockets of their mates

I think that is the conservatives biggest issue; they seem to hate even themselves and their own decisions.

I think there are a genuine group of voters, many Conservative, who have believed the slick, brazen and ideologically driven messages of the last 10-15 years.
They've not been educated, not had a press or opposition strong enough to hold the lies and deception to account.
We are all now experiencing the impacts of these decisions and votes - but it's easier to skip over the fact that many of our voters contributed to this situation.

None of the political parties are perfect. The system rewards the wrong thing.

But we've lost our sense of vision, purpose and what we want our country to be like.

or more accurately QE is firmly on the table,

No it's not, what the BoE did was short term time limited. Supposedly stopped yesterday, they can't keep doing it. If it actually worked someone out there would have done it long term and have booming economy. Those that have tried ahve seen massive inflation and devaluation of their currency.

If they wanted a Boris continuation candidate why didn’t they pick Rishi?

Well if they wanted a Boris continuation candidate Sunak definitely wasn't it.

When Sajid Javid triggered off the mass resignations from the Johnson government the issue which caused it was Johnson's apparent lack of integrity. In his resignation letter Sunak specifically also included the claim of serious policy differences with Johnson.

Sunak is a genuine Thatcherite, like Thatcher he believes in slashing government spending and is happy, like Thatcher, to increase taxation - as long as the burden falls mainly on those less able to afford it.

When Thatcher came to power the standard rate of VAT was a miserly 8%, with a much higher rate on luxury goods such as yachts. She soon put a stop to that.

Supposedly stopped yesterday, they can’t keep doing it.

You're right in that the 65bn fund to buy bonds wasn't QE, it was funded by BoE reserves, and that's no doubt why Bailey was so keen to stop it. If more is needed you can bet it will be QE which pays for it.

If it actually worked someone out there would have done it long term and have booming economy.

It does work. It held interest rates down for 12 years after 2008, rescued the financial system, and prevented economic collapse due to covid. The main problem with QE is not that it causes inflation, but that the money goes to the wrong places, which is the pockets of billionaires and offshore corporations. If that money was invested in public services and infrastructure we would have a 'booming' economy.

Those that have tried ahve seen massive inflation and devaluation of their currency.

See above. It was used across the west for 12 years without the inflation and devaluation you claim. The inflation we're now experiencing is not caused by QE. Japan have been using it for over 20 years and that didn't cause huge inflation and devaluation.

The success of QE depends on how you measure it. Does it limit economic growth? Yes, in the way it is currently implemented (it could be done differently which would promote economic growth). But is that more or less important than price stability, low interest rates and sutainable govt finances? Everyone obsesses about GDP growth, but that mainly benefits those at the top. For most working people, low inflation and interest rates are much more important.

It’s like she really thought she was clever, popular and would be lauded for her decisions but she’s surprised at the reaction.

That ^. Except she still thinks it.

Mad Lizzie has been endlessly falling back on and banging on about her ‘energy price cap’

But despite still believing in her plan, she's somehow realised that the energy cap is the only defensible bit of the mini-budget.

standard rate of VAT was a miserly 8%

Not only that, it went up few % to pay for the change from Poll Tax to Council Tax. It was supposed to be a temporary measure…..

https://twitter.com/ratbanjos/status/1580915243030413312

harsh.....😁

Remember when Boris was PM and we thought it couldn't get any worse.

Well, be careful what you wish for

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1580959622042890240?s=20&t=eaalk-FU-f1GByoqJpJq2g

I suppose its inevitable

I suppose its inevitable

The comparisons with Italy are pretty stark. I seem to remember after Berlosconi and the Italian debt crisis power was handed to a technocrat (google tells me Mario Monti). What followed was austerity and labour reforms. And now we have Jeremy Hunt as PM in all but name, promising spending cuts and other 'reforms' which will negatively impact working people.

Christ!, imagine the chinless goblin with control over the country, good for Scottish independence but a ****ing disaster for England and Wales.

I know you shouldn't laugh at terms of abuse but i did giggle at someone referring to her as an irradiated gerbil

after Berlosconi and the Italian debt crisis power was handed to a technocrat (google tells me Mario Monti). What followed was austerity and labour reforms.

In contrast technocrat mario drahgi has been quite good , obviously they got rid of him in favour of the latest RW loon...

good for Scottish independence

Less of the smugness there, you lot ain't going anywhere anytime soon. You will also reap the rewards of Westminster for some time yet. Might even do enough damage to Scotland to make independance unrealistic.

Dream on, sooner were rid of the utter shower of ****s in Westminster the better

Could you shufty the border a bit further south please?

I've said it many times before but the logical thing to do is to grant independence to the South East of Engerland. I reckon the rest of us would all do just fine without them 😉

sooner were rid of the utter shower of **** in Westminster the better

We all agree about that, just isn't going to happen anytime soon for Scotland, at least 3 or 4 years off if it happens at all. The Tories can and will do a lot of damage to Scotland in that time.

Something I heard yesterday (sorry if it was on here and I misremembered it)
If Truss was a sleeper agent whose job was to destroy the Tory party, what would she have done differently?

the logical thing to do is to grant independence to the South East of Engerland. I reckon the rest of us would all do just fine without them 😉

And lose the 73 London parliamentary seats (considerably more than Scotland) none of which according to the latest opinion poll would be won by the Tories if a general election was held now?

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tory-labour-party-poll-election-survation-defeat-london-38-degrees-b1030965.html

The rest of the seats in the South East outside London only total 84.

And lose the 73 London parliamentary seats (considerably more than Scotland)

If we rolled back to the 2010 results you could draw a circle SE and midlands making those 73 London parliamentary seats immaterial. (Obviously apart form forthe poor sods that live there)

If you went back 12 years and drew a circle around the SE and Midlands it would make London's 73 seats immaterial?

Have you heard about my aunt?

I cannot find a single conservative party public member that has anything good to say about truss

I doubt the even crusty old buffers who did vote for her can find it in themselves to admit it was the colour of her skin that swung it.

There is no other possible reason.