[Closed] Libya is it regime change or not?

Whether they admit to it or not the only solution that I can see is going to be regime change. The UN mandate says do whatever necessary to protect civilian lives, ultimately that means removing Gadaffi, as he isn't going to stop, he's made that abundantly clear.

not as such

stand up fight or just another bug hunt?

absolutely, categorically NOT. As soon as we find the weapons of mass destruction we'll go on our merry way.

My theory is that they backed the wrong horse in being so quick to support the rebels, thinking it was going to be another Egypt where the regime just fell apart. Having alienated Ghaddafi they now need to get rid to ensure a favourable regime and good deals on oil etc.

Or am I just terribly cynical?

Well I suppose it is regime change, just initiated by the people who don't have the power to stand up for themselves against rockets?

Maybe I'm being naive.

I'm in two minds about the whole thing really - I broadly support the rebels desire for democracy etc - but then Libya has some of the highest living standards in Africa (literacy rates, life expectancy etc etc), we do nothing about other countries that similarly crush dissent, and I'm very much unconvinced that we are going in on humanitarian grounds.

And whether I support the rebels or not - I'm a little confused as to why Ghaddafi is apparently not allowed to use force to quell an armed uprising in his country.

regime change is not the goal
all we want is to see power change hands.

Who really believes that the rebels are a homogeneous force dedicated to democracy. 🙄

My prediction for what will happen. Anything with the UN stamp of approval generally means 'half-arsed'. They'll start the job with a fanfare, then interest and support will wane before the jobs done (give it a week, a fortnight, tops!)

By this point we'll have liberated the east of the country but come to realise that the only way we're getting rid of Gandalph is a full-scale invasion. Thatainthappening.com

So you end up with a country divided into two with some kind of UN buffer zone in between. After a period of utter chaos of course

Hey presto! We'll have achieved the same as when we were a colonial power - which I believe certain cabinet members still think we are!

See India/****stan/Kashmir for an example of what a rip-poaring success this kind of outcome tends to be.

If there isn't regime change now then we could be in a spot of bother. Gadaffi isn't unknown to sponsor terrorist attacks against people that piss him off, and I am guessing that we have just poked him with a very big stick.

So if Gadaffi isn't taken out now, then expect a lot of oil revenue to start going the direction of some deeply unpleasent people in the near future (if it isn't already)

Who really believes that the rebels are a homogeneous force dedicated to democracy.

Nope, more like a ragtag army egged on by the media attention and covertly supplied with arms who will be abandoned & left in the mire as soon as it looks like they aren't going to 'win'.

Looking a very shabby affair indeed, of course it's all about democracy for a downtrodden people, nothing to do with natural resources 🙄

So you end up with a country divided into two with some kind of UN buffer zone in between. After a period of utter chaos of course

Hey presto! We'll have achieved the same as when we were a colonial power - which I believe certain cabinet members still think we are!

This is what happened in Iraq in the 1990s with Kurdistan. It worked out relatively well - if you were in the Kurdish bit.

I'm a little confused as to why Ghaddafi is apparently not allowed to use force to quell an armed uprising in his country

Whose country?

it is not regime chamnge we are just making sure he looses.
We cannt afford to let him have power mnow given he does tend to bear grudges

absolutely, categorically NOT. As soon as we find the weapons of mass destruction we'll go on our merry way.

See India/****stan/Kashmir for an example of what a rip-poaring success this kind of outcome tends to be

I broadly support the rebels desire for democracy etc - but then Libya has some of the highest living standards in Africa (literacy rates, life expectancy etc etc)

And that, is the reason why despite the fact that Gaddafi is clearly a sandwich short of a picnic, he still has some substantial support on Libya - specially in the Tripoli oriented part of the country. I wouldn't be that surprised if he were to win any free nationwide election/referendum.

In the the same way that the corrupt Chinese ruling clique would almost certainly win a free election/referendum in China......despite their appalling repressive policies. Better to be a worker in China than one in neighbouring India.

At one time under King Idris's rule, Libya was official categorised as the poorest country in the world. Under Gaddafi Libya has gone from 10% literacy to 90% literacy. It has free health care, education and housing - 10% of their students complete their studies overseas. According to the UN Libya had the highest Human Development Index of any African country.

Some of Libya's achievements :

http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/economies/Africa/Libya-POVERTY-AND-WEALTH.html

There is no doubt at all that had Libya been under a US backed dictatorship for the last 40 years, and yes Guardian Readers, however unpalatable that might be that was the stark choice - there was no other choice, then the Libyans would be immeasurably worst off today.

Gaddafi has also stamped out any attempt by Islamic fundamentalists to seize control in Libya, something which in latter years even US and British intelligence was helping him with.

There is I have not doubt a better future for Libya, but that future does no lie under US hegemony. The US can't even provide healthcare for its own citizens, and it cares even less about poor Africans/Arabs living in far distant lands.

BTW the pre-Gaddafi flag which the rebels are flying is the flag of King Idris's Senussi tribe.......it is not a "Libyan" flag, and I doubt whether that endears them to the whole population.

This is all going to go pear-shaped fast unless Gaddafi is taken out soon (and even then it probably still will). Now it looks like the rebels are starting to counter-attack and using the coalition almost like close air support. That's not sustainable, will lead to civilian causalities and I'm guessing a lot of accidental attacks on rebels to (assuming they haven't been supplied with IFF devices :p ).

If they do remove Gaddafi and a power vacuum is created then it could end up like Somalia and we'll have piracy in the Mediterranean...

Who really believes that the rebels are a homogeneous force dedicated to democracy.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/fingers-crossed-libyan-rebels-aren%27t-insane-201103183639/

Well here is my ten bobs worth, having worked there for two years and got out just as it was kicking off i hope Ghaddafi gets the good news ASAP, in Tripoli he has maintained an air of fear over the people for 42 yrs, when two Libyans are together they will not discuss him or anything Political as they all fear what will happen if they are seen to slag him off, get them alone and spend some time with a driver or even a policeman as we have them looking after our site they wil rip the lash out of him and slag him off. 99% of Tripoli hates him.

How will that happen, well eventually NATO will get the lead and as in Bosnia and Kosova as i experienced in the Army the UN is a toothless arm, NATO is not and i believe we will see some increase in combat missions. When will this happen i dont know but as the "Military Observers" that are no doubt on the ground out there continue to advise and provide tactical knowledge to the Rebels you will see a steady advance towards Tripoli,plus the West wants to set up or know who will take on the Government role, and the West does not want to fly around the Med for too long as well, the key town is Sirte, Gaddafis home town, once that goes the men in Tripoli may well kick off again, they have tried and suffered big time, most of our staff we communicate with all know someone who had had the knock on the door and gone not to return, he now has tents with Army in located in the suburbs to watch for crowds and curfew breakers, they are shot on sight. People with links to Benghazi are taken and in and beasted so in Tipoli they need to be right when they go for it and that will not happen until the Rebels are on the doorstep. There is some rumour the Gadaffi family is beaking up (sons arguing and reports of one been shot and wounded in a feud) which is a good sign but until the Rebels look like going all the way the Army top Brass will not jump ship and that is the key as it holds the power.

until the Rebels look like going all the way the Army top Brass will not jump ship and that is the key as it holds the power.

Why not ? It took a lot less than that in Yemen. Surely army defections in areas close to rebel positions would be relatively danger free ? In fact the reverse must be true, ie, remaining loyal must be fraught with danger, if "99% of Tripoli hates him" then his demise is a foregone conclusion surely ? A matter of days I would have thought.

Ernie thats what we thought, they would soon go for it but his network has installed so much fear everyone looks over their shoulder even in what were normal times, news tonight of a Colonel from the Ghaddafi Battalion been killed close to Tripoli so things are happening.

I hope it is days i really do, i want to see a definate upsurge in attacks against his forces and his Palace levelled as that is symbolic to his regime. He is a twunt.

[url= http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/mar/29/nick-clegg-libya-intervention-iraq ]The west should be prepared for an Islamist government taking over in Libya, Nick Clegg believes[/url]

So that means no elections then.........phew, that's a relief.

It might come as a bit of a surprised to a few Libyans though.

Still the way things are going, what loyalists forces repelling rebel attacks or retaking rebel held positions (despite the fact that 99% of Libyans don't support Gaddafi) it might take a while before that happens.

[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12776418 ]Gaddafi troops force rebels back[/url]

A nice long drawn out war which might eventually lead to a Islamist Libya that will undoubtedly have excellent links with their Sunni Al-Qaeda brothers, is just what we and the Libyan people need.

Thank you Nick Clegg........you have shown how much better you and the LibDems are to New Labour.

2 simple questions:
1. Are US oil companies in Libya?
2. Are US oil companies in Libya?
I think the answer might tell you want you want to know about regime change.

The link between the Libyan rebels and al Qaeda :

http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/2011/03/jihadis-who-killed-americans-get-us-support-libya

http://www.afriquejet.com/news/africa-news/libya-crisis:-%27al-qaeda-takes-advantage-of-airstrikes-on-libya-to-stock-up-on-missiles%27-201103296778.html