Jeremy Corbyn

Ernie I hope your view prevails and Labour keep focusing on by-elections rather than their performace in Scotland and Wales

Ernie I hope your view prevails

What view is that ?

That these by-elections reflect the terrific impact JC is having on the electorate

But that's not my view at all. In fact it's the complete opposite.

It would appear to me that Corbyn becoming leader hasn't had a dramatic effect on Labour's electoral fortunes. That was my point.

It was [u]you[/u] that was predicting electoral meltdown for Labour.

And it is [u]you[/u] who is predicting the next general election result. A very easy win for the Tories apparently.

I have consistently said that I have no idea who will win the next general election. Although I have also said that if forced to give an opinion I think, on balance, Labour will [i]probably[/i] lose the next GE.

Don't you listen to anything I say ?

I don't mind but if you are going to comment it might help if you did.

ernie_lynch - Member

Don't you listen to anything I say ?

Jamba often doesn't seem to know what he's said never mind anyone else.

I reckon we're heading for Labour meltdown.

Not sure that equates to an easy Tory win though. Small parties can really make inroads into crucial floating voters in marginals. The current Govt with its tiny majority is utterly impotent with no hope of getting a majority for any of the unpopular decisions that some think need to be made. Tories aren't popular.

So JC may have crucified Labour, but I don't think we know where all the floating voters will land and what the next Government might look like.

Small parties can really make inroads into crucial floating voters in marginals.............

...........I don't think we know where all the floating voters will land and what the next Government might look like.

Well you could look at by-election results as people generally feel they can enjoy the luxury of voting however they like as it won't make one jot of difference to which party is in government.

For that reason smaller parties and independent candidates tend to do much better in by-elections than they do in general elections.

As an example the LibDems, and the Liberal Party before them, traditionally did very well in by-elections often winning stunning victories.

I personally can't see much evidence that smaller parties are enjoying greater popularity under the present political climate.

Hardly anyone these days trusts the LibDems, UKIP seem to have shot their bolt, the BNP vote has collapsed, and Green Party support has stagnated.

I reckon that for the 90 plus percent of the UK population that lives outside Scotland it's a straight choice between the Conservatives and Labour.

And for that reason when push comes to shove and the two main parties pour resources and people into the marginals the smaller parties will get squeezed next general election.

imo

"I personally can't see much evidence that smaller parties are enjoying greater popularity under the present political climate."

UKIP got 15pc. You'd assume after the referendum they'd disappear, but the SNP didn't, quite the opposite.

Maybe I'm overstating it, but it feels to me like small parties can get their message out and grow (and shrink) faster than ever before.

Maybe I'm overstating it, but it feels to me like small parties can get their message out and grow (and shrink) faster than ever before.

I agree with this, I think social media and internet generally means parties can share their message much more cheaply and easily than ever before. Also the relevance of traditional media as opinion forming is much less than it was.

@ernie I do read what you post. As I said I think the electoral evidence points strongly to support my view. However I am more than happy for the experieme to continue. I would very much like the UK to be able to cast its vote on a more strongly left wing agenda than we've seen before. You never know if we vote Remain and Greece goes bust bringing down the eurozone and dragging us into a €1 trillion bailout the UK may blame the Tories and elect Labour or a Laboir Lib Dem coalition. Its possible.

outofbreath if by smaller parties making crucial inroads into marginals you mean UKIP then I don't see much evidence of that either.

In the by-election held in a marginal seat last Thursday UKIP received half the vote they had recieved in last year's general election.

In a constituency of 72,000 voters only 507 bothered voting for UKIP.

UKIP received 1.6% of the vote which I don't think had a massive effect on the marginal seat.

And that's what UKIP managed last Thursday whilst currently enjoying massive media coverage and their leader being afforded the constant opportunities to give interviews and soundbites.

The Green Party, which is completely shunned by the media and whose leader is ignored, did better and got 2.6% of the vote - exactly the same as the Liberal Democrats.

As I said, not much evidence of smaller parties making inroads and some evidence that UKIP has shot its bolt.

@ernie I do read what you post.

Well in that case you know I have never claimed [i]"That these by-elections reflect the terrific impact JC is having on the electorate"[/i]

What I have said is that the Labour vote seems to be holding up quite well, despite all the predictions of you, Tony Blair, Guardian leader writers, etc, etc.

I can't see the point of you attempting to revise and alter what I have said.

People's interpretation of posts always varies - seems I misinterpreted what you intended to say. As for "holding up" I though JC was supposed to turn things around, be the new dawn etc ? "Holding up" is what he said about the council elections, that's not good enough to win a GE is it ?

UKIP are focusing entirely on Brexit, thats what the local activists told me in Southampton. They entered candidates for local elections somas to be on the ballot but did zero campaigning as Brexit is the single most important issue they care about and we have a specific referendum on that

As for "holding up" I though JC was supposed to turn things around, be the new dawn etc ?

Really? Don't you read the newspapers? Or even what you yourself write?

The Labour vote is suppose to be collapsing - electoral meltdown etc.

What's actually happening is that with another 4 years to go to the GE it's holding up quite well. In fact it's improved a bit since the last GE, which is all that Labour needs to do to win in 2020, they don't need a landslide.

Anyone else think Corbyn is now on much dodgier ground? Before he could fend off his enemies as bitter Blairites who refused to accept his election, now with his less than enthusiastic defence of EU membership, he's handed them a bona fide substantive reason to get rid of him. It pains me to say but I think he's blown it big time. I reckon he'll be gone by the end of the year. And he'll deserve it.

Yes, I think he'll go, and maybe even sooner than that.

One thing that might be weirdly in his favour is that a lot of the Leave voters were Labour supporters!

IMO he clearly did not believe what he was saying in campaiging to Remain. As such the party are right to ask is he the right Leadef ? The Labour party needs to look very hard at itself as it is "their" traditional supporter base which has swung to Referendum to Leave

Now's the time for the Labour Party to choose a leader more committed to the EU?

That makes sense.

.

One thing that might be weirdly in his favour is that a lot of the Leave voters were Labour supporters!

Yesterday's referendum vote was very much an anti-establishment vote. The vote that made Corbyn leader was an anti-establishment vote.

People are rejecting the status quo. Choosing a "safe" leader who is well-liked by the media and won't upset things too much doesn't appear to be a solution.

With the UK having chosen Brexit I expect a massive intensification of attacks on Corbyn by the "establishment". You ain't seen nothing yet. Corbyn as PM was totally unacceptable to them and they were prepared to go to extreme lengths to stop him. Corbyn as PM without the shackles of the EU is going to be even more terrifying for them - he'll stop privatisation for a start.

IMO he clearly did not believe what he was saying in campaiging to Remain. As such the party are right to ask is he the right Leadef ? The Labour party needs to look very hard at itself as it is "their" traditional supporter base which has swung to Referendum to Leave

I agree with Jamba. Strange times!

Yesterday's referendum vote was very much an anti-establishment vote. The vote that made Corbyn leader was an anti-establishment vote.

It was a reactionary vote, however you tart it up. The racists and loons who tipped the balance are not going to swallow his pro-immigration internationalist beliefs.

Corbyn as PM

I didn't think there was much chance of that before, now I think there's zero chance. His only hope previously was some sort of coalition with SNP, when Scotland leaves, that's no longer an option.

One thing that might be weirdly in his favour is that a lot of the Leave voters were Labour supporters!

Surely the opposite is the case - Remain lost because Corbyn did not convince the white working class that their problems would not all be solved just by kicking out some Poles. Whether you agree with his ideas and principles or not, you have to agree that he is absolutely rubbish at the soundbite politics that convinces the rabble to vote for you. Cocking up PMQ week after week was embarrassing enough but it didn't really matter. This time it did matter, and he was found wanting.

The racists and loons who tipped the balance

If the racists and loons tipped the balance who were the rest of the 50% ?

I would be interested to know.

I agree it was an anti-the status quo vote. Unfortunately those doing the voting haven't quite managed to think through the consequences.

I would be interested to know.

I don't know how much more evidence you need. It's pretty clear that it was working class non-metropolitan voters who formed most of the leave vote. And the leave campaign was based pretty much on the single issue of immigration. Add to that plenty of other evidence that a xenophobic and reactionary atmosphere ('we want our country back!') was fueling leave support I find it very difficult to understand how you think this was somehow the common man/woman sticking it to those awful neo-liberal capitalists.

Vote of No confidence tabled.

I don't know how much more evidence you need.

Well perhaps I didn't make myself clear. I was interested to know who [i]you[/i] thought the rest of the 50% were, if according to you the racists and loons tipped the balance.

I'm still none the wiser. You seem to be suggesting now that they were all motivated by xenophobia. But never mind - it's not that important, I was just vaguely interested in what you thought.

Corbin could be out. Vote of of no confidence.

mefty - Member
Vote of No confidence tabled.

That was quick - have Hodge and Coffey not read the script. Political Lifetime back closer to original expectations now (possibly).

What a funny old world.....

I was just vaguely interested in what you thought.

I don't think all were motivated by xenophobia, I'm sure there were a fair few lefties taking the anti neo-liberal view. I know a few, and I also know a few who just wanted to register some sort of protest, so yes I'd put them in the anti-establishment camp. I'm convinced though that the vast majority were reactionary working class types who had xenophobic motivations, even if it wasn't outright racism.

I suppose my own view on it is that today the working class have done themselves no favours. They've allowed themselves to be conned by the very people who have least interest in them, and much like in the US, they have voted against their own interests. And that's the charitable view.

I suppose my own view on it is that today the working class have done themselves no favours. They've allowed themselves to be conned by the very people who have least interest in them, and much like in the US, they have voted against their own interests. And that's the charitable view.

Perhaps we just get what we deserve in the end?

Perhaps we just get what we deserve in the end?

Indeed we do. I'm off back to being a nihilist. It's much easier 🙂

To fair I'm asking questions to people who are quite understandably devastated by yesterday's result, emotive and not necessarily very rational responses is to be expected.

I would have been gutted if the vote had gone the other way, indeed until the first results I was overcome with deep gloom, and had been for quite a while.

However I am so used to disappointments when it comes to politics that I can probably take it in my stride better than others.

I think that perhaps the debate needs to be put on hold until things settle down.

For either side, there's vote's in them there referendums - any party offering a clear political choice for "ramainers" could do well but i suspect it might be a bit like herding cats.

Why were you so keen for the UK to leave, but so keen for Scotland to stay Ernie?

One thing that might be weirdly in his favour is that a lot of the Leave voters were Labour supporters

I thought Labour supporters were not

The racists and loons who tipped the balance

plenty of hate on the left for the EU and it's support of big business

characterising simply either side simply is part of the reason we have a leave vote, it also contributes to us and them politics which then creates the polar/ tribal politics that get us nowhere. the more hysteric the language the worse the damage

ernie that was brilliantly subtle, got all your digs in and still managed to type it as if it was conciliatory 😆

your posts are a joy to read.

Genuine compliment as I type what I mean.

The people have spoken and we need to look at what we CAN ALL DO to make the country actually UNITED again.

Olive branches need to be held out, they need to be taken and we need to stop insulting each other even subtly as it really wont help.

An honest discussion is what is needed and calling the winners racists loons is not going to be very helpful in us moving fwd.

I suspect the best thing I can do is STFU and its probably the best thing many on here can do to help the healing.

I thought Labour supporters were not

With the tories and labour in utter disarray it's quite hard to know what happens next.

An honest discussion is what is needed and calling the winners racists loons is not going to be very helpful in us moving fwd.

I hate to say it but you said much the same after the election.

An honest discussion is what is needed and calling the winners racists loons is not going to be very helpful in us moving fwd.

Half a day has passed and I'm still seething so healing and moving forward is not happening yet I'm afraid. I've already told 2 people at work not to come anywhere near me today.

Honest discussions do not interest these people otherwise they wouldn't parrot blatant lies fed to them by Nigel Farage et al. I'll stop calling them racist loons when they stop saying things like 'we want our country back'.

a racist loon gives his view
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/brexit-democracy-i-voted-leave-divisions-campaigns

a racist loon gives his view

Funny....he just said what I had said on the other thread.

a racist loon gives his view

The same ridiculous analysis we heard after the election. If being comfortable with immigration and foreigners is metropolitan elitism then sign me up. If the labour party's only hope is to engage with and apologise for bigotry and ignorance, then it's already dead.

If the labour party's only hope is to engage with and apologise for bigotry and ignorance, then it's already dead.

The London bubble has burst. The world has been turned upside down. Now is the time to create a new settlement with each other. And when we build ourselves back up and regain our economic vigour – and, of course, we will – no one should be left behind this time.

Completely deluded of course.

The disillusioned poor will be first in line for any public sector cuts....

Labour ****ed.
Conservatives healed.

Turn up for the books!

ernie_lynch - Member

To fair I'm asking questions to people who are quite understandably devastated by yesterday's result, emotive and not necessarily very rational responses is to be expected.

I would have been gutted if the vote had gone the other way, indeed until the first results I was overcome with deep gloom, and had been for quite a while.

However I am so used to disappointments when it comes to politics that I can probably take it in my stride better than others.

I think that perhaps the debate needs to be put on hold until things settle down.

Junkyard - lazarus

ernie that was brilliantly subtle, got all your digs in and still managed to type it as if it was conciliatory

your posts are a joy to read.

Genuine compliment as I type what I mean.

Well that's a rather unpleasant comment Junkyard. And no, I certainly don't take it as a "compliment".

I know that I am pisstaker extraordinaire on here - I simply can't take anything in life too seriously, including myself and my politics.

But among the pisstaking I do like to include some serious comments. I leave it to you to distinguish between the two. Not a terribly difficult exercise I would have thought.

To be fair I realise that the art of pisstaking probably tends to be a working-class/builders type of thing, middle-class wallahs don't seem to engage in it to quite the same level.

I do appreciate how devastating the referendum result must be for the Remainers and how angry and disappointed they must feel - especially as it seemed so certain they would win, even if narrowly.

I also appreciate how they have real and genuine fears for the future, and how they believe this result represents a huge triumph for racism and xenophobia. I think they are wrong but I understand how fearful and angry they must be, I certainly would be if I believed that.

I do not however believe that Britain is a racist country. On the contrary, compared to pretty much all other countries it is the complete opposite of that. In fact as an unofficially naturalised Brit I am deeply proud of the British in that respect.

Having said all that, and having had plenty of personal experience of bitter disappointment with regards to politics, it occurred to me that now, a few hours after huge political bombshell when the wounds are still raw, is probably not the best time to expect rational debate with people who clearly feel very angry and disappointed - they are likely to exaggerate and say things which they don't really mean. I was reminded of the aftermath of the Scottish referendum.

It's a pity that you didn't accept my post in the spirit it was written. What did you expect me to do......add a winky at the end of my post to show that I wasn't having a [i]"dig"[/i] ffs?

Ernie + loads

Whether they feel betrayed by labour or convince themselves JC was really for out will have a big impact in future elections.

I don't think it had anything to do with Labour or Conservatives, it was a combination of being utterly pissed off with their lot and very unhappy about immigration. My wife visited 16 car dealerships all over East Anglia over the last few weeks, as part of her job, and everyone she met was voting out solely because of immigration.

Jeremy Corbyn decides to get all animated and passionate the day afer... seems he was an outer all along.

We're getting his opening bid for PM just now on BBC news.

Bless him. He still thinks that his party is relevant in a world of SNP voters. Labour had to become New Labour to be electable and those days are long gone.

He still thinks that his party is relevant in a world of SNP voters. Labour had to become New Labour to be electable

So the SNP had to become like New Labour to be electable. Well there's a shocking revelation.

I take it that what Labour needs today then is a committed Blairite leader who passionately believes in the EU. Someone who can reflect the will of the people.

Someone like Peter Mandelson maybe, he has impeccable Blairite credentials which will guarantee that he connects with ordinary people.

I can see him making his Prime Ministerial victory speech outside number 10 right now

[img] [/img]

I can see him making his Prime Ministerial victory speech outside number 10 right now

Are you suggesting that Jeremy Corbyn has difficulty in walking and only ever wears a cardigan ?

Interesting.......I hadn't noticed.

I leave it to you to distinguish between the two. Not a terribly difficult exercise I would have thought.

I am not getting into a spat as we really do need to build bridges in a divide country and this is not the method

Enjoy the victory and to the victor the spoils but we are in a fr a messy time
We can either help or hider this
The people have spoken, their wishes MUST be respected and being arsehoes - both sides are doing ot to be very clear- is not helping the country or the situation one bit

I wont be part of the problem but you celebrate as you see fit which is, surprisingly, cheap digs and lying about it.

I don't have a clue wtf you're on about JY, but whatever it is I hope you get over it.

EDIT : Despite your extensive edit I'm still none the wiser. Oh well never mind.

JC defending his referendum performance at Pride:

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/jeremy-corbyn-tells-pride-heckler-i-did-all-i-could-to-campaign-against-brexit/ar-AAhCi9q?ocid=spartandhp

I for one am glad he did all he could - good ol' 7/10... Probably explains why he wasn't so keen to go to Glastonbury.

I do appreciate how devastating the referendum result must be for the Remainers and how angry and disappointed they must feel - especially as it seemed so certain they would win, even if narrowly.

I also appreciate how they have real and genuine fears for the future, and how they believe this result represents a huge triumph for racism and xenophobia. I think they are wrong but I understand how fearful and angry they must be, I certainly would be if I believed that.

I do not however believe that Britain is a racist country. On the contrary, compared to pretty much all other countries it is the complete opposite of that. In fact as an unofficially naturalised Brit I am deeply proud of the British in that respect.

Having said all that, and having had plenty of personal experience of bitter disappointment with regards to politics, it occurred to me that now, a few hours after huge political bombshell when the wounds are still raw, is probably not the best time to expect rational debate with people who clearly feel very angry and disappointed - they are likely to exaggerate and say things which they don't really mean. I was reminded of the aftermath of the Scottish referendum.

the fun is going to be if we have a general election with a pro Brexit conservative, JC who is pro Brexit (and will come up with some excuse that the referendum mandate must be seen through) and the LibDems as the only out and out major "stay in" party

could be all Tim Farrons/ Green Party Christmases at once

[url= http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/hilary-benn-jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-eu-referendum-brexit ]The end is nigh I think. [/url]

A couple of days ago I'd have been completely against this, now I think it's sadly necessary. If anyone had any doubts about the seismic effects of brexit, now you have your answer. Both leading party leaders could be gone from the same political event. And this is just the start I fear.

the bizare thing is that only a proper socialist labour PM has a chance of helping the left behind masses that voted for brexit

the very reason that there is this huge disenfranchised demographic is that the last 30 years or thatcherite/nulabour (Im not blaming fatcha here its just that this is the ultimate proof that 'trickledown' is just a fantasy) have shat on them time and again

I dont actually believe that Corbyns lackluster remain performance was coz hes a secret outie, Hes just not very exciting when he speaks, just look at PMQs !

Jeremy Corbyn decides to get all animated and passionate the day afer... seems he was an outer all along.

There was never any doubt. As Kate Hoey said every Parliamentary division she ever entered over the EU Jeremy was there with her.

I increasingly think Corbyn's limp support for Remain was deliberate, I think that is what has enraged those in the Laboir Party so much more than finishing 3rd in the Scottish elections

We have Chilcott and the anti-semitism report coming up, a tumultous few weeks ahead for Labour

the bizare thing is that only a proper socialist labour PM has a chance of helping the left behind masses that

We voted for Brexit so a UK Government of any persuasion was free to make its own decsions without having its hands tied by the EU.

We voted for Brexit so a UK Government of any persuasion was free to make its own decsions without having its hands tied by the EU.

do you actually believe its immigration thats caused this situation?

Would have been quite something if Jeremy had campaigned on his convictions to leave the EU - he'd be walking around like an absolute boss now, sitting on a mountain of political capital.

It's magical thinking, though - would have taken a political sorcerer (ie, not Jeremy) to pull that off, standing next to Farage and co on the Brexit platform as leader of the labour party. So he just had to keep his head down, and now it looks like it's time to go.

Some of the Blairite stuff in that linked article is simply amazing.

[i]Some claim that the Labour northern heartlands are breaking off from the party, as they have already done in Scotland.[/i]

But unlike Scotland they voted to Leave the EU, does this really prove that Labour should have had a more europhile leader ?

[i]However, critics claim the Brexit vote has shown how disconnected Labour has become from much of its support[/i]

And Hilary Benn is the man to reconnect with them ? ffs

[i]Leaked internal Labour party polling suggested that Labour would attract nearly 3 million fewer votes than it did in the 2015 general election if one were called today.[/i]

If you don't believe recent polls which put Labour either at level pegging with the Tories or overtaking them and would rather believe "leaked internal Labour party polling" then just look at actual election results - Labour winning by-elections with increased majorities and the Tories losing more than twice as many council seats than Labour.

It's only all doom and gloom if you're a Blairite.

Agree, but how can Corbyn get the buggers off his back?

No chance. The attacks against Corbyn were always going to intensify as we approached a general election, or the likelihood of an early one, but now the fact that the UK has voted to leave the EU the situation has become far more critical.

Free from the shackles of the EU Corbyn as Prime Minister would be free to pursue his dream of a social democratic Britain, with a mixed economy (publicly owned railways/utilities), strong welfare provisions, social justice, and genuine commitment to peace.

Expect the attacks from the Tories, from the Blairites, from the media, from the military, from 'the establishment', to become more unrelenting and intensive until they rid themselves of Corbyn.

Agree, but how can Corbyn get the buggers off his back?

Free from the shackles of the EU Corbyn as Prime Minister would be free to pursue his dream of a social democratic Britain, with a mixed economy (publicly owned railways/utilities), strong welfare provisions, social justice, and genuine commitment to peace.

Agree, but how can Corbyn get the buggers off his back?

Well, he's just sacked Benn. Perhaps that's a start.

Half of the shadow cabinet to resign this morning apparently.

Half of the shadow cabinet to resign this morning apparently.

There must be a term for half a shadow?

Hilary Benn is on the Marr show this morning...

Its going to be carnage. Supposedly sacked by telephione after Corbyn leant Benn was going to be on Andrew Marr show

Heidi Alexander (shadow health) gone

So will we be deciding labour leadership the same way again?
I am mindful that the phenomenal majority Corbyn got last time was reflected in the breakdown of the 'real' member votes just as much as the affilate £3 ones. And that the party membership continued to rise after he became leader. And of the rather comprehensive and amusing set of conservative u-turns and climbdowns that happened in spite of the right (including my own super rw/conservative christian MP who wrote about this last summer) warning us that we needed an effective (ie labour-right) opposition to be able to stop the conservatives turning into a runaway train of 'off-manifesto' rigt wing madness. Yet somehow the old lefty and his old lefty mate were part of all sorts of climbdowns and a remarkable rise in political interest amongst the poor and the young.

What happens of all this terrible infighting and dysfunction just produces the result that the party membership actually still wants corbyn?

They are trying to bully him to resign, it is truly disgusting.

Who is this unifying leader who will appeal to the anti- immigration xenophobic 'masses'?

*edit: bully him to resin as they know they would lose a leadership election whichever blairite stands.

Who is this unifying leader who will appeal to the anti- immigration xenophobic 'masses'?

#votejamby

I knew he had an ulterior motive for all this anti Corbyn bollycjs!

A few questions addressed to ernie in particular as he is better informed on these sort of things but open to all;

How would the Corbyn supporters who elected him to the leadership have voted in the Referendum ? (Remain I imagine) What is their reaction to his half hearted campaigning ? Will they continue to support him as they are somewhat conflicted ?

#votejamby

Easily the most ridiculous thing posted on STW for some time 😀

Not so Jamby your love and heart felt compassion for those poor Northern working folk who are having their jobs stolen and your desire to increase their wages busy stopping immigration makes you one of the few credible and unconflicted choices. The working man needs you