[Closed] Is Scottish Independence an inevitable outcome following Brexit?

Bit premature.

Brexit isn’t even an inevitable outcome at this point

Nope, still need the agreement of Westminster to enable it. That'll be tough to achieve cause they'll just be stone faced about it for the foreseeable.

If the snp are thinking of udi or the concept of tearing up treaties, well I hope they enjoy their time in Belgium or barlinnie.

Far point, as much as I would like the whole thing to collapse into stains of history lets assume we do leave EU with some sort of deal which is probably the most likely outcome. What then for Scotland?

Having seen some of the reporting on Ireland in the MSM, and indeed some of the inane questions posed to calm, knowledgeable Irish politicians by BBC interviewers, I very much “get” the idea of Scottish Independence more than I did before.

I’d say the best chance of it is for the snp to do a dup and hold the balance of power at Westminster, until then I think it’s all just bluster.

Personally I don’t think it’s the right time (amazingly i agree with may there 😆 ). I think a 50%+1 scenario would be a shit show. I’d rather wait ten/twenty years and aim for at least 65%. That way it’s then indisputable.

The concept of a supermajority for something like this is the most wise route I think.

Bit premature.

Brexit isn’t even an inevitable outcome at this point

This.

With Westminster refusing it, then not a chance. The SNP can ask all they like, but with the current knock on issues of a referendum on independence from Europe, I cannot imagine any Westminster government agreeing to another referendum for Scotland.

I think a 50%+1

I wonder though if that super majority could be found now? People like me, very firm No voters now thinking again..

The people are best served by a power/democracy as close to them as possible. London may be physically closer but Europe is closer in attitudes and aspirations, as per the regional referendum differences.

Bit premature.

Brexit isn’t even an inevitable outcome at this point

There seems to be a lot paranoid views at the moment.

If you want to become Scottish, then that’s a choice that should be made irrespective of any Brexit deal decisions that aren’t even mooted or any evidence to support them.

If you want to be Scottish today, go ahead sure they’ll welcome you with open arms.

There is a real conundrum in this

A significant % yes vote also want out of the EU. A significant number of SNP voters voted NO. Some NO voters have now moved to YES to remain in the EU. A similar number have moved the other way. Polls have moved a little towards yes and in a campaign I am sure it would move further to YES but would it be enough? I am far from certain but I think it likely and itss obvious that after brexit then iScotland would be welcomed into the EU.

As for holding a poll. Westminster assent makes it much easier but its by no means essential as international law covers this. What would be essential tho is the support of other parties in scotland to holding a referendum if Westminster plays hardball as if the other parties boycott a poll then it would not be seen as legitimate under international law

All IMO

Scottish independence has been inevitable for the last 20 years. It just takes a while for people to realise this.

Personally I'm in favour of breaking the whole UK up post Brexit and making it into a series of small Fiefdoms and Principalities based on county boundaries...

If we're going to do division and in-fighting lets do it properly!

Living in Berkshire I'm actively looking forward to simultaneously negotiating a customs union with Hampshire whilst declaring war on Oxfordshire...

franksinatra

Subscriber
I think a 50%+1

I wonder though if that super majority could be found now? People like me, very firm No voters now thinking again..

I'd think even with that it's still sitting 50:50. Those 2 camps will be more entrenched than ever I think. So much less room for movement than the last time it went from 25 to 45% over the campaign. Probably room for a 5% shift at best this time(in either direction)

You'd imagine time a vote would be held too brexit will be sorted to some degree, and there will be a direction of travel of some sort they can promote.

I don’t think it’s an inevitable outcome of brexit, but it’s certainly more possible than it was..

Well, they better start negotiating the border now then!
IF UK leaves EC and IF Scotland vote for independence and IF Scotland subsequently apply and rejoin the EC then they'll have to sort out a Hard or Soft border - the first 3 ponderables may take 10 years or so but the border negotiations may take even longer so best start now...

With Westminster refusing it, then not a chance. The SNP can ask all they like, but with the current knock on issues of a referendum on independence from Europe, I cannot imagine any Westminster government agreeing to another referendum for Scotland.

in 1916 Irish independence was a minority opinion, WM screwed that one up, will they have learnt anything, going by how the devolved assemblies are being consulted, no.

Well, they better start negotiating the border now then!

it's easy, the same method the Brexiteers claim will prevent a hard border in NI is perfectly applicable to England/Scotland.

it’s easy, the same method the Brexiteers claim will prevent a hard border in NI is perfectly applicable to England/Scotland.

Yes, all we need is "technology". I'm sure we can order some of that from someone

in 1916 Irish independence was a minority opinion, WM screwed that one up, will they have learnt anything, going by how the devolved assemblies are being consulted, no.

I doubt there is much appetite in Scotland for using the 1916 to 1923 template! 😆

I'm with the op on this one. Was strongly against during the Indy ref. Following brexit should it happen then the economic argument goes out the window, which was the key driver in my previous decision.

Couple that with Westminster showing just how incompetent they are, I'd probably vote for independence should there be any guarantees Scotland could join the eu following independence. I'd rather follow the rules of the eu than the rules set by the Tories after all.

We've had our own referendum and decided that post Brexit, we're declaring our house an independent nation state. We've been stockpiling semi-automatic weapons, hand grenades, Beans and spam.

Yes, all we need is “technology”. I’m sure we can order some of that from someone

Last time someone tried to enforce the England/Scotland border the solution was a bit "Tumpian" and the same "technology" is still hanging about...

Truth be told if scotland voted out of the UK in Indy ref2 I'd be sad to lose them from the country, but as we're so fond of "respecting" referenda in this country we'd be hypocrites not to let them leave...

Of course just to be on the safe side should they maybe define a minimum turnout and margin, just to make sure it's properly representative of the will of the scotish people?

tjagain
but its by no means essential as international law covers this.

linkage?

I’d rather wait ten/twenty years and aim for at least 65%. That way it’s then indisputable.

Yep, me anaw Joe.

UN Declaration

And to this end Declares that:

7. All States shall observe faithfully and strictly the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the present Declaration on the basis of equality, non-interference in the internal affairs of all States, and respect for the sovereign rights of all peoples and their territorial integrity.

Is Scottish Independence an inevitable outcome following Brexit?

No, you will Not see Scottish Independence in your life time.

The day you see Scottish Independence is also perhaps the day you see the first President of UK, if you are still alive that is...

Anyone pointed the Spanish at that?
See how far it gets you.

Del
Anyone pointed the Spanish at that?
See how far it gets you.

Or the Indonesians.

It's hard to see how this could come about without acquiescence from our Westminster Overlords (guess which side I'm on...). The Tories in Scotland are on a very shoogly nail; my WMP is a Tory with a majority of 149 out 16,000, he and SNP got 33% of the vote each. Yet he is regularly out and about on TV spouting his pro Brexit stance when in the Euro Ref his constituents voted 68% Remain.
At the next GE I could easily see a Labour/SNP coalition in WM or Supply and Demand on the basis that in Y4 of the Parliament Scotland gets another Referendum. Problem up here is SNP are getting key local decisions wrong and that's the main reason why the Tory see nut got in, in the first place. I can't see the people of Scotland taking to the streets Catalan style to demand a IndyRef2.

Living in Berkshire I’m actively looking forward to simultaneously negotiating a customs union with Hampshire whilst declaring war on Oxfordshire…

The Battle of the Vale of White Horse. I lived in an Oxon village that used to be in Berkshire, then moved to a Berkshire village that used to be in Buckinghamshire.

I can see another eventual independence referendum too, but a super-majority will be needed, none of this 50%+1 nonsense. I think if they promised independence with re-entry into EU, it would pass too. Then I'd emigate.

Oop, there goes opressedicyclo! 😆 The first of the belgian exiles!

One of the main reasons I voted Yes in the last referendum was seeing the rise of insular, Farage-style populism in UK politics. I think there's a better chance of representative government with a variety of viewpoints in an independent Scotland.

I'm not sure independence is more likely, however. Brexit has been such a mess (and it will get worse) that I suspect it will deter people from voting for further change, even if they sympathise with the objective.

I also noticed the electoral commission warning last week against holding further referendums until the law is updated to impose appropriate penalties against the sort of skulduggery that went on during the EU vote.

I’m not sure the polls are moving that far towards yes. One thing the Brexit shambles has shown is that just because it’s called Project Fear doesn’t mean it’s a lie. I think the desire for stability will have a counterbalancing effect on the EU issue.

seosamh77
Oop, there goes opressedicyclo!

You wanted linkage. I gave it.

However as Del points out, the UN's reaction to Spain (and Indonesia) means it's window dressing really.

I think if the Yes campaign promised a push towards EU membership I might be tempted to vote for them. If I were Scottish that is.

Not a chance under the current Government.

I reckon if we leave with the current deal we'll probably avoid a recession (just) which will likely mean the difference felt by the 'man on the street' will be tollerable, yeah you'll wince come holiday time and you won't be able to buy toasters for £3 in ASDA any more, but the papers will blame the EU for that, or May for not leaving under this fictional WTO rules.

As sure as eggs is eggs though if we see a recession the scale of the last one then the current government will lose the next election, they always do whoever is to blame really, but if we get a Labour / SNP coalition after the next GE then you might get another vote. I would imagine the EU will offer immediate entry, just to piss of England.

Of course, Labour could just appoint a less useless shitbag as a leader and they'd win in a landslide.

I also noticed the electoral commission warning last week against holding further referendums until the law is updated to impose appropriate penalties against the sort of skulduggery that went on during the EU vote

For when we vote on leaving/remaining in the EU again? That'll be useful

epicyclo

Subscriber
seosamh77
Oop, there goes opressedicyclo!

You wanted linkage. I gave it.

yip and it falls flat on it's face at the first sentence.

The subjection of peoples to alien subjugation, domination and exploitation constitutes a denial of fundamental human rights,

Explain the case for that?

Brexit has been such a mess (and it will get worse) that I suspect it will deter people from voting for further change

I was speaking to a Scottish mate of mine yesterday and this was very much his viewpoint. If we thought untangling ourselves from the EU was difficult, imagine how hard it would be for Scotland to untangle itself from the rest of the UK!

IMO the SNP (and/or others) would need an absolute commitment to having a referendum in their manifesto for the next Scottish elections and then get a majorty in that election before Westminster will agree to one. Although it's in the manifesto they stood on last time that if changes were made etc etc, but I don't think that's enough.

I think there is enough unionist votes to allow tactical voting to prevent the above happening next Scottish election.

Tbh before any referendum the SNP need to do a few things for it to start to look like it might be successful.

- Sort out the financial argument/situation, ie put scotland in the black, that way the argument becomes indisputable, there is no argument against it
- Sort out the EU position and get guarantees scotland would be accepted.
- Up support for independence to at least 60% in the polls.

They fail on all 3 accounts. Opportunism on the back of Brexit doesn't really float my boat tbh. If a vote comes up I'll vote yes, but I'll do it thinking it'll get beat, and that it'll kill of independence forever.

For me the arguments haven't moved on yet, and there's just too much uncertainty that I think the polls showing an increase are probably wrong, when it comes to it, they'll change, it's floating voters changing their opinions at the minute, they will change again.

It's just too easy to cast doubt on the future right now. And if you think the EU are hard-nosed about Brexit negotiations, wait till you see what the UK do with a divided Scotland.

Scotland would need to go into negotiations united to some degree.

I would also stipulate a re-vote once the negotiations had finished. If Brexit has told us anything it's that that would only be fair. The first vote is about voting with your heart, the second would be about looking at the reality and deciding whether or not to go for it.

I support Scottish independence, but not at all costs.

Like it or not, Salmond will have an impact too. He turned the "broad church" into an electoral force and to a fair degree it will wither without a figurehead like him. I don't like him, but he acheived a lot.

Seosamh - I'd pretty much agree with all of that (I would vote the other way, but not at all costs). Your first two criteria are unlikely to happen any time soon IMHO. The growth commission report has as good as finished the financial argument in the short-medium term. The problem with a second vote is that it encourages hard play by the other side (EU or rUK) to get a really bad deal to swing a second remain vote. I still want one though!

Epicyclo - you need to read a but more about that right to self-determination. Under international law, as it currently stands, territorial integrity take precendence and it doesn't allow secession by self-determination. Quite a lot has been written on the topic with a few very pointed papers/opinions on Quebec. Internaional law is simply what states agree it is and in some areas the mood is changing, but it hasn't yet. Crimea's dodgy vote is a fairly good example of what might happen globally if you recognise secession by self-determination.

Although it’s in the manifesto they stood on last time

It was in a sidebar, buried in the full text. It wasn't in the summary, short, large print, etc versions. If they really want this, it needs to be front and center as it was previously.

i (very much English) viewed it as a big mistake for Scotland but was actually indifferent to the actual outcome of the independence referendum, now if the U.K. leaves with a rubbish deal or no deal and no customs union then i say good luck to Scotland and i hope they prosper in the E.U.

i mean why would you want to be tied to a country that has shot itself in the foot and is going down the shitter?

I'm with GrahamS on this one. Brexit is like trying to get the milk back out of your coffee. I can't imagine that Scottish independence will be any different. What about:

* North Sea oil.
* Faslane.
* The Army.
* The NHS.

and so on. It would be another total shambles.