Only if you're relying on a state pension.
A lot of people are, and even if you aren't actually needing it to get by it's still a significant part of most people's retirement plans
Of course it is but I'm replying for myself not others.
If AI reduces the resource required to produce a given piece of software by say 90% then shouldn't we see something like a 90% reduction in price?
Even allowing for some profiteering, the free market should dictate that bespoke software becomes relatively cheap.
The drop in price will create a big increase in demand.
So your team of 10 gets cut to 1 by AI. Only to be driven back up to 10 by the increased demand.
Seems that the mass job loss argument relies on demand remaining steady or even falling despite significant price drops, which I believe is illogical.
So your team of 10 gets cut to 1 by AI. Only to be driven back up to 10 by the increased demand.
AI isn't going to result in more software. Probably less if the recent crash in the share prices of SaaS companies is anything to go by. We're talking about the de facto disappearance of an entire professional discipline* in just a few years. That alone is going to be a major shock to the economy.
The economic multipliers are not more demand for software, but the removal of the physical and economic barriers of building it.
* yes there'll be others but looks like software development will be the first to fall
So your team of 10 gets cut to 1 by AI. Only to be driven back up to 10 by the increased demand.
AI isn't going to result in more software. Probably less if the recent crash in the share prices of SaaS companies is anything to go by. We're talking about the de facto disappearance of an entire professional discipline* in just a few years. That alone is going to be a major shock to the economy.
The economic multipliers are not more demand for software, but the removal of the physical and economic barriers of building it.
* yes there'll be others but looks like software development will be the first to fall
I guess we'll find out soon enough but colour me sceptical. I can't fathom why a significant decrease in the price of producing software wouldn't result in a big increase in demand. There are no end of possible applications for software which have hitherto been financially unviable. At the bare minimum you're still going to need someone who can take the client's requirements through to a finished product, even if AI does most of the grunt work, that's still a skilled job.
Of course it is but I'm replying for myself not others.
Well if you aren't going to miss it I can promise to see it's put to good use 🤣
I guess we'll find out soon enough but colour me sceptical. I can't fathom why a significant decrease in the price of producing software wouldn't result in a big increase in demand. There are no end of possible applications for software which have hitherto been financially unviable. At the bare minimum you're still going to need someone who can take the client's requirements through to a finished product, even if AI does most of the grunt work, that's still a skilled job.
This is my guess too. If you can cut the cost of developing a custom app from 100k to 10k, it will massively expand the demand.
The middle classes weren't arsed when it was coal miners and ship builders, maybe software engineers will be voting for right wing populists in 30 years time
This is my guess too. If you can cut the cost of developing a custom app from 100k to 10k, it will massively expand the demand.
Yes but that 10k is mostly being spent on tokens, not people. It may well increase demand for software development* but that won't result in more jobs for software engineers.
* Think it'll reduce the overrall amount of software. At the moment have all the user facing apps and systems that exist, and a massive amount of middleware and 3rd party libraries and services which they all depend on. AI removes the need for the middleware. Why use a library or 3rd party service when you can just generate your own in hours? That's why the SaaS industry is in crisis.
The middle classes weren't arsed when it was coal miners and ship builders, maybe software engineers will be voting for right wing populists in 30 years time
After years of indulging in smug potshots (thick, anti progress, peasant mentality, flat earthers) on the internet and on forums like STW. All from their safe space behind a computer. I am sure the red carpet will be laid out and they will be welcomed with open arms into the real world. You know the one they deny exists, except for other people who didn't try hard enough at school!
I don't relaly get what happens long term. Its trained on all code written up until now, but coding has evolved over time with new languages, design patterns, libraries etc. How does AI handle all that in the future? Do we just stop thinking about like we did with programming in machine code or assembler and let the AI take care of it? But the natural language interface is a lot less deterministic than a compiler.
I can't fathom why a significant decrease in the price of producing software wouldn't result in a big increase in demand.
A successful IT project is not just about writing some software. IMHO you need to think much broader and longer term than that.
Who is operating it? Who is maintaining it? Who is evolving it's features? Who is going to market it and monetize it?
Then...what if it was a really shit idea in the first place? Just like the many other shit ideas that are now flooding the market because it's cheaper to do the code bit.
I don't doubt that it'll be easier to churn more code out with fewer developers in the future, but that doesn't necessarily correlate directly to successful it projects.
How does AI handle all that in the future? Do we just stop thinking about like we did with programming in machine code or assembler and let the AI take care of it?
Yeah it gets very messy very fast. I have been using AI for development in a few different contexts over the last year or so since for my sins have been assigned to testing various of the latest and greatest AI dev tools.
For knocking together a greenfield site using well established patterns, languages and frameworks its okay? My specialism is backend work but it does okay there and as far as I can see okay at front end. It needs handholding and lots of "why is this your solution" and adding in rules saying "if it doesnt build try again". Its the sort of stuff I would knock together some high level guidelines and give to a junior dev or two to do before reviewing and asking "ermmm why?"
However I also tried using it to help me out with some stuff which had just been released and it was less than impressive to put it mildly. It proposed "use this really great method" which sounded ideal until a red squiggly line suggested it didnt actually exist.
On the flip side I have also been looking at some old code using a rather unpopular language. Again its crap since there no one has written some helpful notes that can be acquired by the model builder. Odd how in most cases their approach to intellectual property is flexible depending on if its their rights being violated or if it serves their interests
All that said the question is how different this is to outsourcing the junior devs. At some point the leads end up being too hands off to know the code and the people who do work for someone else.
I think one of the things which gives me a bit of faith about keeping a job is just how hard it is getting someone to turn business waffle into technical requirements and then into build notes.
The number of business analysts I have worked with is probably into triple figures but the number who could produce semi competent technical requirements could be counted on one hand even if I liked carpentry and was incompetent with power tools.
I've also seen comments on linkedin (used briefly out of necessity, honestly its become the worst social media platform IMO!) along the lines of:
"I've vibe coded an app, can someone check it for me?"
Which means can an experienced dev spend hours/days/weeks of time reading through 1000s of lines of previously unchecked code generated by someone who hasn't got a clue what they are doing..
I think there will be a lot of that in the future!
My opinion of AI and it's potential to go full Skynet or bring about the end of 'work' for the masses has changed a lot in the last few months.
When Microsoft presented to us what they thought the future was, it seemed bleak, they painted it as being very positive, but the gaps between the lines were massive. A lot of people who just sort of do 'stuff' were going to be made redundant, and I've seen it with my own eyes, people in the marketing depts of the big employers got put on notice.
What I've seen in the last 6 months or so is a massive walk-back, not a U-turn, but the estimated pace and scale of change was wildly exaggerated - what seemed impossible for economies to keep up with in terms of employment now seems more 'normal' more inline with changes we've experienced before. Jobs will chance, jobs will go, but those who can adapt will do well, and sadly those who won't or can't will be left behind.
I believe what we've experienced and continue to experience is an economic bubble, a bubble that's being inflated by those who are hoping to get out at the right time. Like the Internet, it will burst, there will be a crash and when it recovers it'll be more inline with what it's actually worth and then we'll know what it's going to mean in the real economy.
After years of indulging in smug potshots (thick, anti progress, peasant mentality, flat earthers) on the internet and on forums like STW. All from their safe space behind a computer. I am sure the red carpet will be laid out and they will be welcomed with open arms into the real world. You know the one they deny exists, except for other people who didn't try hard enough at school!
Not really sure who these comments are aimed at but when circa 6m people are unemployed and half of them never spend any money ever again and the other half all re-train from their laptop based knowledge jobs into the same narrow field of remaining "real-world" jobs, its going to be bad news for everyone if you ask me.
This is a good - but very long - read. Basically what happens to the banking industry and economy when mortgages that were based on white collar incomes can't be repaid?
https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
And these are the sort of ****s who run and own the AI industry..
https://twitter.com/TheChiefNerd/status/2025184575316471971?s=20
I'm pondering his use of the world "unfair" there... and no matter how I look at it, it's troubling.
its going to be bad news for everyone if you ask me
Of course more people competing for the shit jobs. Some will have to lower their standards across the board and might be surprised (certainly not used to) how badly people are treated in lower tiers of the employment pyramid.
Tools got faster, that is true, but companies still need people who understand what the tool is actually doing, where it breaks, how to design systems, and how to deal with messy real world requirements that are never clean prompts. Right now it is replacing some grunt work, not the people who can think through architecture, risk, scaling, and maintenance. The engineers who adapt and learn how to steer these tools usually become more valuable, not less.Software/Data engineer here. I reckon I've got about a year - maybe 2 max - before I'm redundant. Anyone else?
When ChatGPT arrived I used it create simple scripts and search for solutions to problems which I had to review or debug. Now with the arrival of Opus4.5 and 4.6 and codex 5.2 and 5.3 all I have to do is throw some rough requirements at it and it builds entire solutions which are pretty much perfect out of the box. Haven't written a line of code in over a month. PRs are pretty much pointless box-ticking exercises so hardly any reveiw or QA required.
The above was getting my slightly concerned until I saw one of my colleagues constructed a Ralph Wiggum implementation to build an entire app. 6 months of development done in 11 hours costing $1600 instead of $74k. Game over!
No, to answer the exam question.
LLMs need driving very carefully for good results. Regardless of the domain they're used in.
If you work for a company that would happily take the output of an untrained school child then I guess it's worry time
800 redundancies at eBay this week - makes you wonder how much of that is due to AI.
I was watching my cat yesterday. He slept on my favourite chair for 13 hours straight. In other words, he used it fully whilst I didn't disturb him at all. He went out, had a fight and I assume chased a lady cat for some action. When hungry, or bored, he issued me a few choice instructions and I complied instantly. He is happy, whilst I do pointless work just for money and to keep up his lifestyle.
Am I the future example for AI? Taking care of a lazy, ****less human pet to do as they please in life?
If so, blue pill please and let me ride my bike 24/7
LLMs need driving very carefully for good results.
Not that carefully in my experience. The latest models write pretty much perfect code. Yes we will still need people to feed them requirements and supervise architecture, but most of the effort in building stuff is in the code production, and that’s gone now. I predict many senior devs will become technically able product managers and owners. All the juniors writing the code will become uber drivers.
All the juniors writing the code will become uber drivers.
Nah the driverless Teslas are going to get that gig.
I commented previously that I think I’m safe - but this morning I’m looking at ripple on a pump flowmeter trace and ChatGPT actually appears to know what equipment this is (only Plant of its type in the UK) and offers correct solutions to the issue.
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Did anyone see the "citrini scenario"?
If AI does rapidly displace jobs, you can't just escape it by working in a trade or manual job. The effects cascade throughout society, and on top of that we already have rising inequality and lowering fertility.
https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic
Depressingly plausible. One bit that it doesn't cover is the geopolitics. Any attempts by states to regulate / tax American AI companies getting tariff'ed / some other retaliation.
I was watching my cat yesterday. He slept on my favourite chair for 13 hours straight. In other words, he used it fully whilst I didn't disturb him at all. He went out, had a fight and I assume chased a lady cat for some action. When hungry, or bored, he issued me a few choice instructions and I complied instantly. He is happy, whilst I do pointless work just for money and to keep up his lifestyle.
Am I the future example for AI? Taking care of a lazy, ****less human pet to do as they please in life?
If so, blue pill please and let me ride my bike 24/7
You are assuming a nice benevolent AI keeper. What if your AI has a taste turfing you out at night to go fighting - my fight to the death skills are proper rusty and I'm a 70Kg office working cyclist so getting up to speed is unlikely.
One bit that it doesn't cover is the geopolitics. Any attempts by states to regulate / tax American AI companies getting tariff'ed / some other retaliation.
A very astute observation. Without wanting to be conspiratorial, I suspect this is the plan and why the US tech industry is so entwined with the Trump administration. They are essentially going to colonise the GDP of foreign states by insourcing work which would normally be done in those countries. The result will be the US (and China) prospering at the cost of everyone else. Unless developed states outside the two AI powers get together to design a regulatory response it's game over. Tax/tariffs on AI services is almost certainly part of that, also regulation to constrain the use in certain sectors to protect as many jobs as possible. They need to get going though, they've only got a couple of years to figure it out.
The only good thing I can see LLMs driving is the inevitability of Universal Basic Income.
Don't see anything inevitable about UBI even in the US, but it is at least barely conceivable there - they can tax their own companies' gigantic AI profits if and when they appear. As per the geopolitical comments above, how does the UK / EU launch UBI for an obsolete workforce? We have been completely left behind in this global technology race.The only good thing I can see LLMs driving is the inevitability of Universal Basic Income.
Ireland probably the exception in the EU in its current role as tax-host to US tech.
The US collectively will not be prospering, a selected group of very rich people will. But not the collective US
Yes the proceeds of AI colonialism will not be shared out equally, but they will probably be shared in some form in order to buy votes from the unemployed middle classes. Trump has already talked about getting rid of income taxes, I have no doubt he would love to do that, probably funded with some of the proceeds from AI. The rest of the world however is f***** unless they quickly get to grips with the threat of significant percentages of their GDP being exported to the US and/or China.
I bet Lloyd Grossman is worried it’s going to ruin his bolognese sauce business
I think theres a place for Ai in furniture design.
Link Ai up to a cnc router and allow it to, well come up with something.
The furniture-maker than becomes effectively the middle man marketer/bench hand joiner
So much for Anthropic and it’s core belief in a moral stance regarding use of their a.i., they fold like the paper they’re coveting
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/25/tech/anthropic-safety-policy-change
The middle classes weren't arsed when it was coal miners and ship builders, maybe software engineers will be voting for right wing populists in 30 years time
I think it's more like the mechanisation of agriculture that the gutting of coal mining.
Modular / off site construction can be hampered by planning conditions such as irregular structures or building heights which don't then suit a " square box" approach that is only efficient and cost effective when turned out on a production line. Simple changes to the standard product like lifting the windows to align with those of the surrounding existing buildings or introducing a feature that is non typical can make the product less cost effective than a traditional build.
Changes in planning in the coming years will ease this and we may then see a take off with modular builds. I for one welcome it as it might actually provide local authorities with a chance to supply actual cheap social rentable accomodation and remove people from the grip of unaffordable crippling landlord rentals.
Your roof is still going to need replacing.
Your boiler is still going to bed repairing or replacing.
You're still going to need a new kitchen/bathroom/boiler/roof at some point.
Those basic maintenance jobs are always going to be there.
And if there's no employment for you, how does one pay for these things? The market for everyone including those working with their hands is going to shrink and the trades will be scrabbling around for well enough paid, employed clients who can afford their prices.
Your roof is still going to need replacing.
Your boiler is still going to bed repairing or replacing.
You're still going to need a new kitchen/bathroom/boiler/roof at some point.
Those basic maintenance jobs are always going to be there.
And if there's no employment for you, how does one pay for these things? The market for everyone including those working with their hands is going to shrink and the trades will be scrabbling around for well enough paid, employed clients who can afford their prices.
Its even worse as the newly un-employed will be re-training as trades.
Governments not going to be happily paying out the new scroungers.
So you’ll end up with a saturated market of people hunting for work which will drop the rates for trades as well.
I'm feeling ok about it at the minute. I'm a videographer/photographer, all of my work involves real people talking on camera about real-world products used to create real music. If it's not that then I'm shooting live gigs. AI can't replicate that stuff, it can try and sometimes look convincing enough to my grandparents but that's about it, and why would it be used to try and recreate a live gig photo or video? The whole point of these images are about capturing a moment in time, not recreating it by what a computer thinks might have happened.