Putting aside the moral position. What’s the hive mind on economics of a ICE car purchase Vs hybrid/battery. 1/2 yr old. 5-10 yrs ownership. Large estate/MPV/small van/SUV
given recent political shift on how to get to net zero iCE longevity seems greater.
Probably depends on mileage (and only worth thinking about if you can charge overnight cheap at home, or something else equivalent).
OTOH EVs are mostly great to drive and you're not polluting urban areas (so much - there's still tyre dust). Which you might care about.
E-vans still don't seem to have great range for the most part, which may be a factor.
low mileage 8-10k miles a year.Largely Short runs. Occasional long trips.
Unless you’re planning to drive it into city centres it’ll probably be fine.
Ultimately the 2030/2035 ban is on production; fuel will be available for a while yet.
Offset any guilt by trying to walk/cycle local journeys more?
Currently on flux (I think) so mid priced electric between 2 and 5am
Where would you charge a battery vehicle? If you can charge at home, great. If you have to use public charging there is no cost saving in fuel currently. In fact, an efficient ICE vehicle can be cheaper. That's before you consider the higher cost of entry.
Just for clarity, I drive a BEV and have done 17500 miles since the start of the year.
Ultimately the 2030/2035 ban is on production; fuel will be available for a while yet.
It will... But if you have ever run an LPG car you will know the pain of fuel being less and less convenient to find.
Leaving aside the moral and economic questions, what fits your requirements best. I'm pretty much like you, short trips and the occasional long one and I think a hybrid (PHEV) would suit me most. Not that I'm in the market for one, my 10 year old Passat is still going.
Harry Metcalfe did a video on this recently - OK he's talking SUVs but the principle remains.
Even though I have an EV, in OP's position I'd probably go petrol ICE - although it does depend a bit on initial budget and how many people actually need to fit in (there's not a great choice of EV MPVs at the moment but if 4/5 seats are OK rather than 6/7 there's a lot more choices).
only want 5 seats (would take out others likely if more than 5 to free up space). Space is to carry ‘stuff’.
Current mid/large petrol SUV and have a tow bar bike rack and a roof box for holidays but if we add some inflatable SUP type fun then will be too small.
remember to check the insurance.
high repair cost/inability to repair of some of the bigger players (and I guess, statistically some muppets crashing them at a higher rate) can lead to huge premiums. I'd be looking at close to a grand for a polestar which is probably the closest EV to my current car.
10k miles a year at 50mpg is about £1500 worth of fuel.
Harry has some other good vids 😉
ICE is going to be around as a mainstream supported product for way way longer than 5-10 years ownership.
no brainer for me, go ICE.
Another great video by Harry.
I've got a build date of my Octavia PHEV which is actually this week, so hopefully deivery is end of Nov/early Dec. Looking forward to using it and seeing what the benefits will be. It's mostly for the tax benefits as it's a company car but my average work journey is maybe around 80 mile round trip (not every day, visiting customers in different locations). It will be interesting to see what the overall running costs are. Has anyone here with a PHEV moved to an EV tariff at home?
My Toyota hybrid is not very exciting but gets reasonable mileage (60 mpg or thereabouts). I don't think I would ever get an ICE again, but hybrid seems pretty OK.
To be fair my wife’s BMW 320 diesel used to do over 60mpg until an HGV remodelled it.
As for grid loading, EVs are not in the same league as heat pumps - relatively straightforward for most charging, though forecourt style fast charging will be a bigger issue.
ICE or EV.
Not a hybrid for me.
ICE is going to be around as a mainstream supported product for way way longer than 5-10 years ownership.
no brainer for me, go ICE.
I'm of the opposite opinion.
Year on year growth in EV sales seems to imply that ICE will be pretty much phased out by 2030 anyway whether the government supports it or not. Sure there will still be cars for sale, but I'd be surprised if it's not models that are released already or soon, they won't be new.
Euro7 effectively bans ICE in small cars, the emissions control equipment will be uneconomical.
Electricity prices will drop again, especially those on variable tariffs when the wind blows, petrol prices won't.
Politicians are already having to claim they won't implement a zero emissions zone, which can only mean it's coming (and people will bleat that Rishi "encouraged" them to buy these polluting ICE's, they really had no idea etc).
My reality doesn't quite match that. I've got a car, but it's basically a toy , it's used less than 2 tanks of fuel this year, gets free tax and doesn't get a regular MOT anymore. My OH has a car which she uses a lot more than I do (I cycle everywhere, she doesn't). I'm idly looking for a 'new' car, but realistically we're talking something old enough to drink and vote for tip runs and the odd weekend away. Last time I had a car and worked in this office it had to have the rust cleaned off the brake disks for the MOT!
Electricity prices will drop again, especially those on variable tariffs when the wind blows, petrol prices won’t.
There was an interesting thread on SoMe saying that solar is expanding at such a rate, with or without government mandates, that in a moderately sunny country in a sunny day, electricity will effectively be free. There is an issue about how to store it that needs to be worked through though…
Year on year growth in EV sales seems to imply that ICE will be pretty much phased out by 2030 anyway
the growth is tiny, most of the growth is hybrid (they all get clumped in the same figures) -there is zero chance any of the dates will be kept. There was a thread on one of my linkedin channels about how a meeting with Rishi and BP wasn't minuted (as is normal) - there was a feeling that the data being presented made very uncomfortable reading - i.e. we're drilling for more oil than ever and our energy demands are increasing year on year and there is nothing in the plan to replace it.
to give an idea of the scale in 2022 the total Nuclear and renewables output was 2490.172 tWh, if you were to electrify everything (planes and ships), you would need (as of today) 63,729 tWh - only a small gap!
or to bring it just about more in line with everyday transport - Diesel and Gasoline (petrol to you lot) accounts for ~ half of the fossil energy output ~53million barrels a day or about 33K tWh so we are still a factor of 10 out on what we need JUST to replace the internal combustion engine gloablly.
So, when big oil, that everyone hates, says it aint gonna happen, they really do mean - it aint gonna happen because we consume SOOOO much energy. Energy demand is increasing year on year, and Nuclear energy is DECREASING year on year i've not even included coal and gas powered fire stations! in the above!
My main worry even ignoring potential ICE bans moving/changing and broader issues would be the impending obsolescence & subsequent depreciation of whatever particular EV/Hybrid you chose and being stuck with an expensive paperweight.
Given the pace of advances in battery tech, infrastructure etc. if I had the need for an EV it would be one of the few times where I would absolutely lease rather than buy when it comes to cars.
They're one of those vehicles that could easily become almost worthless overnight if things change with regulations or technical advances (or the battery dies out of warranty and costs more than the value of the car to replace) so if that can be someone elses problem that would be preferable! If it costs you 'x' per month and saves you 'x' or acceptably close to that per month in fuel and it fits into your journey requirements, then it's a winner.
We have 26 miles a day to drive. We have a smart meter so can sign up for very cheap electricity overnight.
The cheapest EV I could find that was useful for most local mileage i.e. wasn't an old model Leaf with a tiny battery was a new model Leaf - got it for a good price of £9k. That is comparable with a similarly sized ICE at similar mileage and age.
However, the fuel saving is around £80/mo which is about half the cost of borrowing the money to buy it. So, if we were buying diesel/petrol even at 50mpg, we would only have been able to afford a £4.5k car which would have been much older and/or smaller, especially given current used car prices. So for us, a no brainer.
Given the pace of advances in battery tech, infrastructure etc. if I had the need for an EV it would be one of the few times where I would absolutely lease rather than buy when it comes to cars.
I'm not sure about this right now. Batteries will improve, but commute distances will stay the same, Swansea/Bristol aren't getting further away nor are my parents, most probably. For a car used for local journeys - likely a second car - used EVs can make a lot of sense.
or the battery dies out of warranty and costs more than the value of the car to replace
You don't replace batteries, you replace cells, only a few of which die at a time if you are very unlucky. Doesn't really happen on cars more modern than mine. You're probably as likely to suffer a catastrophically expensive failure on an ICE.
our energy demands are increasing year on year
Whose? UK or global? Because I don't think that's true in the UK. Also National Grid reckon the savings we have already made since the peak of 2017 (or whenever it was) can more than cater for everyone to have an EV, here in the UK.
the growth is tiny, most of the growth is hybrid (they all get clumped in the same figures)
Also don't think this is true. PHEVs do not get lumped in with EVs, and EVs are growing quickly.
Today there are an estimated 660,000 electric cars on the road in the UK and 445,000 plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).
In December 2022, 42,284 new EVs were registered in the UK - a figure that's 52.62% higher than the 27,705 new electric cars that were registered over the same month in 2021.
EVs enjoyed a continual growth streak throughout 2022. In January 2022, 14,433 EVs were registered, representing 12.5% market share. By the summer this had increased to 22,737 for June, a 16.1% slice of the market. By December 2022, this had significantly increased to 42,284 new EV registrations - a massive 32.9% market share.
As a comparison, there were just 4006 diesel cars registered in December 2022 - a mere 3.1% market share. This was down from 6008 in January 2022 (5.2% of the market).
Alongside EVs, 2022 also saw an increase in the number of self-charging hybrid cars, up 27.6% on 2021 levels with 187,948 registrations. The number of PHEV (plug-in hybrid cars) fell by 11.5% to 101,414.
Source: https://heycar.co.uk/blog/electric-cars-statistics-and-projections
global, everyones are including the UK. The figures above are global, but you cant look at one western country in isolation as we all share the same resources.
Or a less sales-orientated link: https://cleantechnica.com/2023/08/05/uk-ev-share-at-24-1-bevs-double-model-y-top/
July is always one of the UK’s quieter months of the year for EV share, and for auto volumes generally. Nevertheless, BEV volumes were up 88% over July last year, to 23,010 units. PHEV volume increased by almost 80%, to 11,702 units. Both were well ahead of the 27% volume recovery of the broader market.
In December 2022, 42,284 new EVs were registered in the UK – a figure that’s 52.62% higher than the 27,705 new electric cars that were registered over the same month in 2021.
were end of year registrations in order to meet quota's - this years EV uptake is massively down.
the constant in use “standby” gas power station near me suggests otherwise.
Oh come on. You must know the difference between anecdote and data.
Speaking of which, where are you reading that EV sales are 'massively down' this year?
Here's some data direct from the manufacturers - SMTT:
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/evs-and-afvs-registrations/
Hmm that says January 2023 and says 'year to date' but doesn't specify if that's today or otherwise.
I haven't seen a page yet that says EV growth in the UK is 'tiny'.
Your January and ytd data are the same. Seems suspect.
Op needs a spreadsheet for his use case.
I had to do 15k a year for it to make economic sense between two comparable age and milage vehicles before vehicles end of life Using 1.80/l at the time a 3 y/o petrol engine was 1/3rd the price of a 3y/o bev. Costs have come down for Bev but not by enough for it to make sense to me doing 6k a year.
Wife's next car might be a Bev if they get the range and cost issues sorted with the bev berlingo.
Op needs a spreadsheet for his use case.
Yep. I did one with all our options, also included the lower cost of servicing for EVs, both annual and regular stuff like timing belts, fuel filters, transmission fluid, spark plugs etc etc etc that you don't need to do on EVs.
Indeed but all Small fry stuff compared to the fuel aspect. Didn't skew the numbers far enough . The only way I could skew them was to play bev bangernomics
Yes and honestly EV bangernomics is not attractive unless you really don't care and are happy with a 50 mile range, or no rapid charging, or other weirdness, whilst still paying £6k. It's not like they're £1,000.
We were lucky to find a cheap recent Leaf tbh. I keep thinking I should have gone for an Ioniq but they were 50% more.
I haven't played bangeromics but my old style Leaf has been bonkers cheap for the last five years, but I charge at home most of the time. Insurance is the same as any small car, maintenance is cheap as chips.
I'm not bothered about the batteryy dying and being useless, as they kind of don't. And , I'm hoping someone can confirm that sometimes ICE's break, need maintenance, cam chains, spark plugs and weird victoriana type stuff?
Finally to disappoint Sui all my neighbours have BEV's and we can run wash the machine without everyone in the street getting a power cut. Strange!!!
To the OP - if you can charge at home a BEV is pish cheap if you only do local runs up to a couple hundred miles. GO beyond that a lot and you need to factor in a degree of inconvenience.
For "mostly short runs and the occasional long one" a phev can work really well, very low cost for all your short journeys, very low hassle for your longer ones, when used in that pattern they tend to have the lowest tco compared to a full battery or ice vehicle (cheaper to buy than an ev, cheaper to fuel than a ice)
Energy in all forms is going to get more expensive in the future.
EVs effect on total lifetime emissions is minimal as all the electricity they use increases demand which increases fossil fuel burning and getting the lithium for the batteries is a very dirty process.
EVs are simply greenwash. they do nothing to reduce energy usage in any significant way and indeed there is data that shows they are used more due to the small marginal cost of extra miles
I’m not bothered about the batteryy dying and being useless, as they kind of don’t.
The old Leaf is a funny one. No battery cooling like the newer noes, but the first couple of model years 2011-2013 didn't really manage temperatures very well so you could get a car that's done motorway miles and shortened its battery life, or you could get one that's fine. But they gradually improve the management software over time so the 2014-2017 ones are largely better. But with a small battery to begin with you get at most 80 miles and that can drop to 50 according to users in bad weather and for us, that variability wasn't enough to give us confidence. My wife might've ended up looking at a 25 mile each way trip and we wouldn't want to be pushing it.
The benefit of a Leaf is that they are cheap, and decent cars; and there are loads of spares including batteries. They are very well known cars, with a big community.
Yeah, that grid claim sounds like bollocks to me, since 2017 we've lost a lot of capacity and we're still several years away from Hinkley C never mind Sizewell C.
I haven’t played bangeromics but my old style Leaf has been bonkers cheap for the last five years,
how much was the capital investment to achieve that low operating expenditure.
MY understanding is the national grid is close to capacity and brownouts are a real possibility this winter if we get a nice stable high pressure event so no wind power. Its going to be emergency diesel generators running.
More than several years for the new nuclear as well is it not?
Link to the guardiam- summary
The quotes were £5,000 or more’: electric vehicle owners face soaring insurance costs
So I'd be carefully checking the insurance.
More than several years for the new nuclear as well is it not?
Q4 2028 officially, everything is really ramping up now though, I think the first mechanical systems are due to be installed imminently and actual Ops staff due with them.
If you actually saw the place you would understand why it's taken so long to physically build (forget the pre-build politics). Mind boggling.
15 years?? It was only selected as a site in 2010!
It didn't actually start construction until 2017. It's actually a bit over 3 years late which, given Covid, is actually not all that awful. Still not great but as I said, it's an absolutely huge construction project. You can bet Sizewell will be quicker if it goes ahead.
Its rather later than that! according to that 18 years in the building ( actually longer in reality) Its at least 10 years after the date it was first said it was going to be generating. 2005 it was announced
Illl bet its not generating in 2028 and that Sizewell will be also delayed by at least a decade
Hinkley C was supposed to be generating in 2017! so thats a projected 11 years late
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/28/hinkley-point-c-timeline-all-the-key-moments
