Meanwhile in Greecski (little joke there!) the hangover arrives early. Deposits leaving the banks. Yields much higher, banks shares down 20% today. Not pretty...
I hope the greens are watching after their latest nonsense about the UK yesterday!!!!
There is nothing vaguely free market about any of this is - complexity the opposite, false currency, false rates, false growth, false risks, false policies......this is a massively distorted economic and political mess. For one thing, in a free market, creditors would definitely take a hit.
Wasn't the whole point of the loans to Greece meant to be economic development? That it was meant to go into the economy to make them more like Germany?
Creating a load of highly paid public sector jobs (doing what?) was never going to do this. But, on the other hand, the EU must have seen what they were up to, but they kept the money taps turned on full. Which is just bloody stupid. But then 'bloody stupid' is a phase that pops up pretty frequently when referring to the inexplicable la-la-land policies of the Eurozone. WTF did everyone involved in this sorry affair think was going to happen?
@gofaster, its not rocket science is it. You're a doctor and charge 50% of the bill in cash, what do you do with that given that Greek banks are only held up by EU loans plus the fact that should a miracle occur and the tax man actually come looking its best to have the money where he cannot look. The French minister who spoke out frequently against tax havens under Hollande was a surgeon and he had euro 600,000 stashed in an undeclared account Switzerland, so what worked for him would clearly work for the Greeks. Any smart Greek individual or business would move all their legitimate funds out of the country as if it exists the euro all the banks will go bust and/or enforce conversion into drachma with a massive devaluation. As I posted before 20 billion has left Greek banks over last 3 months.
Greece is in a no-win situation. The EU are not going to significantly renegotiate its loan-package and the conditions of austerity. But if Greece were to leave the EU, international investors wouldn't touch it with a barge-pole - what is there to invest in other than olives?
JY holders of Greek debt have taken a lot of pain already, the last refinancing left the original holders with big losses, up to 50% I recall. When you extend the maturity of a debt it isn't "free", there is a cost. For example some holders would be forced sellers at depressed prices as the longer dated debt was "inelligable" as an investment as a result of being extended.
I would agree that banking (and other) markets needed better regulation. One issue with Greek debt is as it was a eurozone government an EU bank could buy the debt and hold ZERO capital against it. That's changed now (to some degree). Most UK banks dodged that bullet but the eurozone ones held far too much and they did indeed take material loses AFAI recall (tmh may correct me here)
As I posted before 20 billion has left Greek banks over last 3 months.
Sauce! I want a source, otherwise this is worthless, speculation.
the last refinancing left the original holders with big losses, up to 50% I recall
Only 50%? That's 50% less than it should be.
the last refinancing left the original holders with big losses, up to 50%
The default did this IIRC - ie Greece did not pay and offered 50 ish % of the debt - but THM will know best on this.
west wing fan?
[url= http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everett_Dirksen ]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everett_Dirksen[/url]
Daz, 100% restructuring is not a restructuring, it's a default!
2012 average haircut was 75%. Hit local and foreign banks hard - check out Credit Agric 2011 and 2012 losses (over €bin)
Yield bunnies were hovering up Greek debt recently - oops!
As I posted before 20 billion has left Greek banks over last 3 months.
But posting it again doesn't prove that those funds were ill-gotten. On the contrary, it includes the savings of little old ladies that don't want to see their pensions gobbled up by new austerity measures.
However, there seems to be some confusion - the old order, ND and PASOK, may have represented adherence to the payback terms, but they also represent a continuation of the corruption and incompetence that helped create the situation in the first place. Not forgetting of course that this corruption is nothing new or secret, and that EU governments, bodies and businesses all connived in it.
and of course threatened to not make payments if the then serving PM let the Greek people vote on it via referenduum.
But posting it again doesn't prove that those funds were ill-gotten.
True
On the contrary, it includes the savings of little old ladies that don't want to see their pensions gobbled up by new austerity measures.
Not really, it's the sensible money moving out of the banks to avoid a potential conversion into a new drachma at unattractive rates. You would be mad to hold money in a local bank right now. Sadly the little old ladies are the ones least likely to be aware/advised in this.
Sadly the little old ladies are the ones least likely to be aware/advised in this.
Never underestimate the little old ladies of Greece 🙂
never underestimate little old ladies.
(they haven't got where they are today by letting little things like old age, chronic illness, serious injury, war and death stop them)
DrJ - I wasn't suggesting it was ill gotten (or didn't intend to) just that it's reflective of the reality facing Greeks and Greek banks. I'll gotten gains would have been moved out consistently and long ago. Without EU support the banks would be bust today. Their shares are down 50% since the election was called last year.
JY interestingly the Greek people (so says Syriza) have not voted to default and leave the euro, they have voted for a Syriza fantasy in delivering a 50% write off of EU debts and an end to the budget conditions imposed as a condition of the bailout in 2009.
At least Tsipras is holding his election line - no PPC sale, reinstate public sector jobs and pensions - pity the markets hate this so much.
Not looking pretty in Turkey at the moment either
JY interestingly the Greek people (so says Syriza) have not voted to default and leave the euro, they have voted for a Syriza fantasy in delivering a 50% write off of EU debts and an end to the budget conditions imposed as a condition of the bailout in 2009.
You say that but my impression is more that they voted against the ND-PASOK axis than for any specific economic proposals. If they are stopped from succeeding, next time it may well be Golden Dawn who receive the protest votes.
Brilliant I fell confident we can all agree the solution to the greek problem of having their cake and eating it is having someone elses cake and eating it.
Battenburg?
Brilliant I fell confident we can all agree the solution to the greek problem of having their cake and eating it is having someone elses cake and eating it.
Confidence well placed. I agree.
You say that but my impression is more that they voted against the ND-PASOK axis than for any specific economic proposals.
I think they voted for an end to austerity based not least upon a significant reduction in the national debt which Syriza have promised they are going to negotiate.
Battenburg?
Vasilopita would seem an appropriate extension of a financial metaphor.
Phil The Greek's mother was Princess Alice of Battenberg.
Really messy day today - banks shares end down 25-30%, record daily falls in some cases. Three yr bonds thru 16% (2012 levels), junk status by S&P
Time for real, decisive action now......the Greeks deserve better.
If they had any sense Greece & EU should be hammering out a plan now before the markets make it for them. Graphs for for markets in Greece over last few days look grim.
Don't think there much of a plan to be agreed on. Surely they will just cut the debt (most of it) and work out a loooonger repayment plan. Its pretty much the sam as demanding your broke jobless mate to repay a loan for a million within a year.
Well Syriza have made good on their plan to increase spending, reinstating many of the cuts to things like pensions, returning the minimum wage to the pre crisis level. Not a sausage in terms of a plan to increase revenues via tax rises or a plan to increase tax collection. So they've done the easy part with no indication on how they will pay for any of this.
It'll come out in the wash.
**** austerity.
Not a sausage in terms of a plan to increase revenues via tax rises or a plan to increase tax collection.
No, that's because they plan to have a large deficit, not deficit reduction, it's basic social democratic economics.
A British economist made the argument for temporary deficit spending as a fiscal policy tool to help stimulate an economy in recession 80 years ago, if you are unconvinced by that argument after all that Greece has gone through then I guess you never will be.
.
EDIT : BTW Syriza has apparently every intention of tackling tax abuse :
[url= http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2015/01/26/the-real-challenge-facing-syriza-is-beating-tax-abuse/ ]The real challenge facing Syriza is beating tax abuse[/url]
[i]"If those who voted for it [Syriza] were not anti-EU they were definitely anti-austerity and they understood that austerity in Greece is being promoted by the very same people who refuse to address the crisis facing Greece and many other countries. That is the crisis of corruption driven by tax abuse"[/i]
Interesting article on the Syriza strategy - [url= http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/tsipras-reverse-shock-doctrine/3155 ]http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/tsipras-reverse-shock-doctrine/3155[/url]
So they've done the easy part with no indication on how they will pay for any of this.
Give them a chance, it's only been a few days. If you read the above and links within it they're pretty clear that they intend on raising money through ending the tax immunities enjoyed by the rich/well-off, and reforming the corrupt clientelist system of state procurement.
ernie_lynch - MemberA British economist made the argument for temporary deficit spending as a fiscal policy tool to help stimulate an economy in recession 80 years ago..
He started a cult, it's now headquartered in Boston (MIT) and has amongst its disciples, many of the great and good in politics and quasi-government. (Many of its apprentices serve with Goldman Sachs.)
Anyway, if you think the note left by some departing treasury clown from Labour to the coalition about there being no money left was bad: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-28/new-greek-government-arrives-its-residence-finds-no-power-no-wifi-password-and-no-to
No, that's because they plan to have a large deficit, not deficit reduction, it's basic social democratic economics.
@ernie I get that but someone has to lend them the money if they are to run a deficit ! It's not going to be the markets and in fact the whole 240 billion EU bailout is contractually dependent upon them not running a deficit. If they don't comply the EU/IMF won't roll over the debt due in March (7 billion) and June (another 7 billion).
Market price for Greek debt is 10% and the EU lent them money at 2% (or it might have been 4%) and they are complaining !
....the whole 240 billion EU bailout is contractually dependent upon them not running a deficit
And also dependent on them implementing severe austerity measures. The Greek people however have opted for the opposite - anti-austerity.
That is precisely why this particular Greek general election, unlike previous ones, has made the UK news headlines. Hadn't you realised what the fuss was all about ?
Looks like the Russian's could be the biggest winners in this and Germany the losers.
If the Euro zone had any sense they'd ditch Greece asap, and just take the financial hit.
And also dependent on them implementing severe austerity measures. The Greek people however have opted for the opposite - anti-austerity.
The EU specifically threatened to withdraw the offer if their was a vote on the measures.
are the Greeks going to vote next for more sunshine, less rain and a 500% increase in the price Europeans are willing to pay for Feta Cheese and Olives?
Is it any more likely that Syriza will deliver on these things compared to "ending" austerity?
Well Syriza have done one thing already that we're not used to from our political masters in Europe. They're not immiditelly back-tracking, and renaming on their electoral promises the second they're in power. Something we all just take as par for the course from the back-sliding bastards we're generally saddled with.
It's now a 'who blinks first' competition.
I bet there's absolute blind panic in Brussels today - not to mention undisguised fury in Berlin. They're faced with a completely new animal. They're ultimate nightmare. A member of the eurozone who's government isn't going to immediately cave in to the dictats from their (tax free) Ivory towers in Brussels. And unlike the ridiculous posturing from Dave. Looks like this is the real deal.
It's about to get very interesting
What your amusing sneer at the Greeks about sunshine and feta cheese prices and whether "Syriza will deliver on these things", seems to ignore just5minutes, is the fact that Greeks have voted in favour of austerity in previous general elections.
However their previous faith in austerity measures proved to be somewhat misplaced. What actually happened wasn't that it made a bad situation better but the opposite - it made a bad situation even worse, Greek debt is now considerably higher than it was when the first austerity measures were introduced.
Perhaps the Greeks now feel that they were sold a fantasy when it was suggested to them that austerity was the way forward ? It seems that kicking a crippled economy in the guts to bring it back to life might not have been a good idea after all.
It certainly didn't bring "more sunshine, less rain and a 500% increase in the price Europeans are willing to pay for Feta Cheese and Olives", just misery and a worse situation.
So it comes down to "At least let's try something else"?
1) Looks like the Russian's could be the biggest winners in this and Germany the losers.2) If the Euro zone had any sense they'd ditch Greece asap, and just take the financial hit.
@dragon please explain 1). I agree with 2)
@ernie - I agree this is a big deal, the Greeks, and many others it seems, think that by having an election they can undo previously signed contracts, that they can defy financial gravity which says you must be able to afford what you spend.
Austerity is a very catchy tag line for financial common sense, don't live beyond your means.
@binners Syriza have stuck to their promise of spending more, thats really ewasy. Whats harder is raising more revenue and persuading European taxpayers to pay off euro 120bn of their debt.
common sense
Oh no not this again 🙁
Oh no not this again
OK, use the world reality in it's place in that sentence then 8)
Austerity is a very catchy tag line for financial common sense, don't live beyond your means.
I don't think you understand what austerity means, or at least you are ignoring its meaning. Austerity in the context of an economy is about reducing public expenditure. You cannot have permanent austerity, eventually there will be no public expenditure left to reduce.
And there is nothing "commonsense" about reducing public expenditure during periods of recession or low growth, why would there be?
[url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bank-of-england-governor-mark-carney-urges-eurozone-to-spend-its-way-out-of-stagnation-10009743.html ]Bank of England Governor Mark Carney urges eurozone to spend its way out of stagnation[/url]
If you have no money, nobody will lend you any money, and you have no ability to print money, going on a spending binge is tricky.