[Closed] Greek election - extreme left won

but I hope it will help you to understand that I don't give a monkeys what your ex-boss, or his wife, has to say

tmh Greece should look here, ie the UK ?

Finance minister in London, has made it clear to private lenders/investors that they will not default on the privately held debt. Makes sense as if they get a sniff they will start preparing legal action which will make life troublesome to say the least.

Syriza do seem to be dealing with the spending side, ie spending more/reducing asset sales without any plans yet for how they will pay for it including stating they don't wish to take the euro 7bn bailout payment due at end of Feb. It's just not clear how they expect to pay for these spending decisions, where's the money going to come from ? They has said they won't default on the EU/IMF debt. Nothing adds up.

Syriza aren't even bothering to go to Germany to meet the finance minister.

To be fair to them, they know full well what the German finance minister will say, as the German government do all their talking via leaks to the German press. I doubt they'd learn owt new, or make the remotest difference to German intransigence over everything in the Eurozone. So why bother?

“You cannot keep on squeezing countries that are in the midst of depression”

“At some point, there has to be a growth strategy in order to pay off their debts and eliminate some of their deficits.”

Seems like Obama hasn't been listening to you ...

So why bother?

To drop off some money in Switzerland on the way? Oh no .. that was the last lot.

Seems like Obama hasn't been listening to you ...

Or perhaps he just has a grasp of Economics, that isn't clouded by inflexible Political Dogma?

tmh Greece should look here, ie the UK ?

No I didn't, I meant Argentina and Korea. But funnily enough our effective devaluation and exit from pegging to the D-mark was perceived as a disaster but was actually a blessing and major boost to the economy.

nothing adds up

Of course not!!! 😉

That's the fun bit to watch and analyse. Obama is correct. The current proposals condemn Greece to a downward spiral. But the solution is verboten. Hence the can gets another kicking....

Seems like Obama hasn't been listening to you ..

Even if you assume the political "elite" and the bankers took a cut of the euro 340 billion borrowed by Greece it would be a tiny drop in the ocean of money that's gone "down the drain" (Syriza/Greek finance ministers words BTW)

that isn't clouded by inflexible Political Dogma?

Greece is not the problem per se. The numbers are small change. The issue is the secondary effects and that is what scares the Eurocrats.

Messy, messy, messy.....if only it was Messi, Messi, Messi.....although not with regards to tax affairs!!

Like honouring a contract you've signed, paying back money you've borrowed or at least the interest ?

In fact I am in that position myself. Someone owes me money. I have a signed agreement from made him in a court to pay me back x over y time. He hasn't paid me a penny. What shall I do? Bankrupt him, and get nothing, or give him time to get a job and back on his feet?

jambalaya - theres a degree of pragmatism needed here. We are where we are. And its a ****ing mess. But its not going to be improved by lobbing accusations about about who's fault it is/was. Theres blame on both sides.

Now we have to look to the bigger picture, and concentrate on the more pressing issue. How to resolve the situation. Since the imposition of austerity, the Greek economy has contracted by 25%, and is continuing to contract. That isn't sustainable. And you can't continue to service debts in that situation.

If you were the one who was owed all the money, surely you'd countenance a degree of flexibility, to ultimately improve your chances of ever seeing it again?

But they can't do that because they've painted themselves into a corner defending the indefensible. A single currency that was a disastrous idea to begin with, and whose effects continue to be catastrophic for a massive chunk of the European population. But we can't admit that now, can we?

Like honouring a contract you've signed, paying back money you've borrowed or at least the interest ?

Much as I admire your commitment to keeping by your word, in the real world circumstances change and contracts need to change with them. The case for changing the contract/agreements in this case are obvious to everyone but the most blinkered. Just shouting 'A deal is deal!' at the people you're contracted to isn't going to solve the problem.

Americans see Greece as the perfect example of how left wing / socialist government spending ruins an economy.

https://www.transparency.org/country#GRC

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The public sector suffers from substantial integrity gaps in both law and practice. Some public officials have acted without transparency or effective oversight for decades. As a result, there is a trend to demand and accept bribes. But these actions tend to go unpunished. A 2010 report indicates that only 2% of misbehaved civil servants are subject to disciplinary procedures.

Recent large scale corruption scandals also highlight the risk of conflicts of interest between public office and the private sector. Due to the volume of scandals, citizens’ distrust in public service has proliferated.

Tax evasion
A poor system of tax inspections, aided by an opaque tax code, allows individuals and companies to bribe inspectors and evade taxes. According to a 2011 survey, the cost of bribing tax inspectors to “arrange” tax audit activities is reported to range from €100 to €20,000. And estimates show that €120 billion may have been lost to illicit money from bribes and tax evasion in the first decade of 2000.

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The business sector’s complex legal and fiscal environment, excessive bureaucracy, and frequent policy changes create an atmosphere conducive to corruption. This in turn prevents effective competition, development and growth. Furthermore, while listed Athens Stock Exchange companies operate with reasonable corporate governance, non-listed firms function in a state of almost complete opacity.

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Corruption Perceptions Index (2014)

Rank:
69 /175

Score:
43 /100

OECD Anti-Bribery Convention (2011)
Enforcement:
None

Bribe Payers Index (2011)
----
Control of Corruption (2010)

Percentile Rank:
56%

Score:
-0.120842147

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Rank:
96 /142

Score:
3.86 /7

Judicial Independence (2011-2012)
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Rank:
85 /142

Score:
3.3 /7

Human Development Index (2011)

Rule of Law (2010)

Percentile Rank:
67%

Score:
0.615028759

Press Freedom Index (2011-2012)

Rank:
70 /179

Score:
24.00

Voice & Accountability (2010)
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Percentile Rank:
73 %

Score:
0.898
"

Liars and cheats riot - gfs

etc

What shall I do? Bankrupt him, and get nothing, or give him time to get a job and back on his feet?

Obviously you should follow the example of Greece's creditors and break the legs of anyone who has ever completed a financial transaction with your debtor as they have willingly and culpably conspired with him to rob you of your money.

Obviously you should follow the example of Greece's creditors and break the legs of anyone who has ever completed a financial transaction with your debtor as they have willingly and culpably conspired with him to rob you of your money.

Oh. OK. I was just going to sell his children into slavery, but your way works too. Or as well.

jambalaya - Member

Americans see Greece as the perfect example of how left wing / socialist government spending ruins an economy.

Except that it was right-wing Greek conservative governments whose spending ruined Greece, not left/socialist governments.

Since you apparently like graphs have a look at this one :

[img] [/img]

The Greek conservatives, the New Democracy Party, got elected in 1989. You will note how Greek debt compared to the Eurozone average shot up under their rule.

Then in 1993 PASOK got elected to government and stayed in power until 2004. Now you will note that Greek debt compared to the Eurozone average leveled off.

And then in 2004 the conservative New Democracy Party again got elected to government, they stayed in power until 2009. During this period Greek debt went through the roof leading to the present dire economic situation.

Contrary to your claim jambalaya Greece is a perfect example of how right-wing/conservative governments can ruin an economy.

As I said on the previous page jambalaya you need to be less causal with the facts - it might make your arguments more convincing 💡

Contrary to your claim jambalaya Greece is a perfect example of how right-wing/conservative governments can ruin an economy.

Sometimes I think that if the left could learn this skill of simply repeating the opposite of what is true ad infinitum so that everyone begins to believe it then the world would be a much better place.

Maybe the key bit was

Americans see

@gofaster and @ernie - I don't think you could find a country with more left wing spending policies than Greece. They have had a series of governments who have been happy to borrow and distribute the money to the population via various benefits, early retirement etc etc. The population liked the handouts so they kept voting them in. You can find coverage in all sorts of American publications, remember the Democrats are to the right of the UK Conservatives, a refelction of the political landscape there. A country founded by poor immigrants with nothing has determined that's the correct orientation for their nation.

Greece indeed has an level of debt which is likely unsustainable - no dispute there. The EU, and the Greek government, signed a deal in 2009 which allowed Greece to remain in the EU/euro without defaulting. They really where doing Greece favour, all concerned thought so.

If Greece doesn't want to pay they can default and exit the EU. I personally would not be in favour them remaining in the EU having defaulted and been kicked out of the euro.

Greece is the perfect example that the euro doesn't work without complete financial integration. Ultimately without a European superstate.

We'll see the real ability of Syriza if they can actually collect some more taxes like they've promised. The change which was part of the EU's requirement when the bailout was signed. There is no need for the Greeks to sell their children, they should collect some more taxes and address the rampant corruption at all levels of their society.

76% of Germans in a poll said, no debt reduction.

I don't think you could find a country with more left wing spending policies than Greece. They have had a series of governments who have been happy to borrow and distribute the money to the population via various benefits, early retirement etc etc. The population liked the handouts so they kept voting them in.

So now you are claiming that the policies of the New Democracy conservatives, that got Greece into this mess, were the most left-wing of any country in the world !

Your claims are getting more and more ridiculous and fantastic jambalaya.

And as for your claim of spending on "various benefits" for the population, the most significant area of spending when the Greek conservatives went on a spending spree was the military, I'm not sure how that benefited the population.

From the Wall Street Journal :

[url= http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703636404575352991108208712 ]The Submarine Deals That Helped Sink Greece[/url]

Note :

[b][i]"Greece, with a population of just 11 million, is the largest importer of conventional weapons in Europe—and ranks fifth in the world behind China, India, the United Arab Emirates and South Korea. Its military spending is the highest in the European Union as a percentage of gross domestic product. That spending was one of the factors behind Greece's stratospheric national debt".[/i][/b]

Just like here in the UK, where according to the Tories we have all the money we need to spend on Trident replacement, for the Greek conservatives money wasn't a problem when it came to military hardware.

And as for your claim that the Greek population "kept voting them in" that completely flies in the face of election results. Greek were clearly dissatisfied with their politicians which helps to explain why their governments changed!

I don't think you could find a country with more left wing spending policies than Greece.

A country [USA] founded by poor immigrants

Let's discet the budget then when we have time. Greece spends heavily on the military due to its history of conflict with Turkey. It certainly provides a lot of jobs, soldiers stationed on every island, at least there was when Inlast visited 28 years ago.

Binners of course the economy has contracted hugely as such a big part of it was based upon borrowing which had to stop.

Ultimately Greece's fate will be decided by the voters of the EU, I think the tax payers of Germany, France, Italy and Spain won't be willing for stump up the lions share of €120bn for Greeks when they have their own domestic needs.

Greece spends heavily on the military due to its history of conflict with Turkey. It certainly provides a lot of jobs, soldiers stationed on every island, at least there was when Inlast visited 28 years ago.

Ah, just like any self-respecting Tory you are quick to defend massive spending on weapons

[i]"provides a lot of jobs"[/i] ...... that sounds like a rather left-wing argument.

lol

Sounds like the Lazard boys have been hard at work.

Ultimately Greece's fate will be decided by the voters of the EU, I think the tax payers of Germany, France, Italy and Spain won't be willing for stump up the lions share of €120bn for Greeks when they have their own domestic needs.

If the Greeks default they won't have a choice, they should have just bailed out their banks directly rather than through the medium of the Greek restructuring, which has neither served their taxpayers nor the Greeks well.

Or let them fail, like Iceland.

(No idea how that worked TBH)

So will Moodys call Varoufakis' bluff?

Or will Lazard and co pull a subtle fast one? Clever if they get away with it......at least they have used their brains.

@mefty it wasn't about bailing out the banks in 2009. It was the country which was bust. Given the finance minister was a university lecturer he's proven to be a fast learner politically in not answering the questions; are your banks bust, how will you not default ?

My faith in him comes from his success at Valve 🙂

Have you guys not been reading the FT? The latest stunt is to promise a haircut that isn't a haircut. Quite smart superficially but the ratings boys should see it for what it is ie "event of default."

Shouldn't be allowed really as creating false markets in Greek banks debt. This got mullered late today again despite this stunt. Very poor distortion of markets yet again. Plus ca change...

Well I'm starting to change my opinion, especially the more I hear Yanis Varoufakis speak. I had previously thought that if EU conservative politicians and bankers weren't prepared to throw a lifeline to the Greek conservative government and ease the pain they were inflicting on the Greek people then there was an even less chance that they would do so to a Syriza government.

But the more I hear the Syriza leadership talk the more I'm realising just how pro-EU and pro-Euro, and therefore ultimately bourgeois and anti-revolution, they really are. I did previously wonder whether Syriza's pro-Euro rhetoric was something of a ruse so that when the inevitable eventually happened and they were forced out of the Eurozone (Greek public opinion is strongly pro-Euro) they could blame EU politicians/bankers and deflect criticism away from themselves.

I am now starting to realise that Syriza's commitment to the EU and the Eurozone is actually even far greater and deeper than I had imagined, within the leadership at least.

Therefore it would be somewhat foolish if the right-wing EU politicians/bankers were determined to make the Syriza government fail. The consequences politically and economically cannot be accurately predicted, of course, but one thing which is fairly certain is that in the event of the government collapsing support for the fascists and communists parties will increase (support for the fascists dropped very slightly and support for the communists increased a little in last week's general election) something which should be of some serious concern to the EU (quite apart from the fact that they are both anti-EU).

While they are still very small parties both the fascists and the communists enjoy more support today than Syriza did two general elections ago - so clearly things can change fairly rapidly in Greek politics.

Of course coming to an arrangement/agreement with the Syriza is highly likely to encourage anti-austerity parties in other Eurozone countries such as Spain, a dangerous situation. But I think there is now the slow and gradual realisation that austerity isn't working, in fact rather than solving the problem it's simply making it worse. So the argument in favour of deferring austerity at least until the Greek economy has experienced some substantial level of recovery is gaining ground.

For those reasons I am now starting to believe that some sort of accommodation [i]might[/i] be reached with the new Greek government.

.

Have you guys not been reading the FT?

I know it's very hard to believe THM but I strongly suspect that the answer might be "no".

I can't believe that some people don't read the Morning Star.

🙂

Edit to my previous post :

On reflection I suspect that support for the fascists has probably peaked, they lost one MP in last week's election, and with many of their politicians arrested (including all their MPs) and waiting trial there probably isn't many more people who are prepared to vote for them. In contrast the communists gained 3 more MPs last week despite the fact that many potential KKE voters quite likely decided to throw their weight behind Syriza and give them a chance, so there is a fairly strong potential for an increased communist vote - if Syriza are screwed.

Edit

The German, French etc. banks

@ernie - Syriza and the Greek people are very pro-EU / euro as they need it badly. They recognise how great the EU has been for them in terms of being able to borrow and get subsidies/grants and they know that the alternative (default & euro exit mostly likely, I doubt the EU would kick them out entirely) is much worse. I think in Greece people voted for the longshot that Syriza could deliver a miracle, the question is once reality sets in and its shown they cannot will the people continue to support them, they may well do, depends how Syriza play their failure to deliver a 50% debt write-off. Perhaps if they can tackle corruption and collect more tax from the middle classes they will.

@tmh, I did indeed read the FT piece, IMO total nonsense what is being proposed. I wouldn't touch any of it with a barge pole but then I haven't bought any Greek debt/cash flow (even secured/payment rights) for 25 years so I am not the target audience.

Varoufakis is fast discovering the need to communicate properly. So folk (except the FT) saw through the haircut that wasn't a haircut and now the locals are getting confused.

Banks shares bounce 20% when nothing has actually happened. So a fin minster creating false markets!!!

Grown ups need to be careful when playing with twitter!!

I think in Greece people voted for the longshot that Syriza could deliver a miracle

You might wish to characterize it as voting for a miracle but most pundits agree that the vote last week was a vote against austerity.

Will Syriza deliver ? Well against the odds it seems that they might, their strategy of linking debt repayment with growth appears to be gaining support, both the US President and the UK chancellor yesterday expressed sympathy calling for growth and jobs to be a priority for Greece. Neither are representative of a Eurozone country of course but both are major players in global finance which adds additional pressure on Germany.

The markets also appear to like Syriza's plan :

[url= http://www.rttnews.com/story.aspx?Id=2450496 ]European Shares Rally On Greek Deal Hopes[/url]

.

Banks shares bounce 20% when nothing has actually happened.

This is what happens when people don't read the Financial Times !

The strategy (from Lazard) sounds good as a headline but the devil is int he detail which is coming out today. This would still be a default event and the ratings agencies would have to be clear on this. Plus the Germans have seen through it straight away.

So beware dead bounces.....the FT missed the key point too

A haircut is still a haircut and Greek banks still need to tap the ELA.

A for effort but C- for execution. Still messy times ahead but the politicians will love the implied fudge.

To be honest every time I've seen Varoufakis on the telly he hasn't appeared to need a haircut.

🙂

Have you seen the Steve McQueen mockups from the Great Escape ?

I think the market has bounced as Syriza is stepping back from their hardline rhetoric, they have said they won't default which during the election campaign was very much on the table. I meant miracle in terms of a 50% debt write off. Greece cannot service it's debt without the budget cuts its already made and the terms of the bailout where budget cuts and reforms (ie collect more tax). People may have voted against budget cuts / austerity but they need to square that with the agreements they signed and the fact that the country basically cannot borrow any more money.

TMH I think the FT was so keen to print it's exclusive they switched their brains off. "Growth" bonds and perpetuals 😯

[img] :large[/img]

[img] :large[/img]

Why don't the new Greek ministers wear ties ... because

Both images from Guardian live feed

Greece cannot service it's debt without the budget cuts its already made and the terms of the bailout where budget cuts and reforms (ie collect more tax).

Blaa blaa blaa. Greece cannot service its current debt, period. Question is whether it could service some reduced or restructured debt, and whether the extra money that requires is worth it to avoid a failed state on the European mainland. That is a moral(*) and political question more than an economic or financial one.

(*) Given the German experience as a recipient of debt relief, it does not reflect very well on Merkel that she adopts this hardline stance.

Greece is servicing it's debt as it was granted very generous bailout at a below market rate. The population isn't happy at the cuts that have had had to be made in order to service that debt and I can appreciate it. The alternative is much worse, however.

A couple of anecdotes from yesterday's meeting in London. The "growth bonds" where just an idea floated at the meeting, the FT reported it like it was a real proposal. As I understand it Syriza have no firm policy/proposal as of yet, they intend to develop that over the coming weeks. My favourite story is related to state asset sales, finance minister said certain assets had been sold too cheap and that such sales have been halted, they would however be interested in selling loss making assets like the railways where they would be happy to accept €1, haha in their dreams

They said they would do all it takes to stay in the euro, quite conciliatory