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If Iran are days away from making a bomb, why don’t they just make it but keep it secret? It’s not like they have to declare “we are now a nuclear nation”
I think it would require detonating a nuclear device which can't really be kept secret.
Also all countries which possess nuclear weapons (with the exception of Israel) advertise that fact very loudly, because that is precisely how the deterrent aspect of nuclear weapons works, it has zero deterrent value if your potential enemies don't know you have it.
Well they’ve had it for the last 50-60 years and not nuked anyone yet.
Not the time to use it yet. Eventually, everyone will use theirs and that's where the fireworks start. (hypnotic voice in the background ... "press the button all of you")
If Israel had not been suspected of having nuclear weapons, would it still exist now or would its neighbours have attacked in force (again) years ago?
Yes, even without nuke Israel would still exist with the help of USA, UK and other EU nations. C'mon Israel as a state come into being without nuke (but their support has atomic in those days). Even if Iran or their neighbours have nuke they would not use it because of the Muslim population and the respect for the second holy land. Now that the population is "not mixed" anymore the use of nuke will be highly plausible in future.
I wonder what the plausible deniability would be for Israel to nuke Iran’s nuclear sites and say “wow, what a big explosion our conventional bomb caused, must’ve been their bombs going up, tut tut”
It is always good to show "evidence" of the threats as a way to redirect public opinion that the enemy had a stockpile ready to launch.
why don’t they just make it but keep it secret?
It isn't known that they haven't, and it doesn't matter anyway, most analysis says that they can do it pretty rapidly, and they have an existing ballistic missile capability to deliver it. I don't think the change from threatening to become to actually being a nuclear armed state would make that much difference diplomatically.
Well they’ve had it for the last 50-60 years and not nuked anyone yet.
Is largely the point of these weapons
would its neighbours have attacked in force (again) years ago?
I would suggest that diplomatic efforts to normalise relationships regionally is probably more effective than the threat of destruction. The 7th Oct attack was largely an effort by Iran to put a stop to Israel and S.A. from developing a closer relationship after all, and wasn't made in a vacuum that Israel has these sorts of weapons.
I wonder what the plausible deniability would be for Israel to nuke Iran’s nuclear sites
I don't think there's any sort of deliverable weapon short of nuclear that could destroy Iran's under-mountain sites. Given how effective Mossad has been in the past infiltrating Iran, it's more likely that any attack mounted to disrupt their nuclear capability will be espionage based.
Although let’s not also forget that child casualties would quite a bit smaller if Hamas et al would stop using children as human shields, child soldiers and tunnel workers
Well there you go again. You want space to discuss topics other than Israeli war crimes, but when presented with, in this case, an article about child victims of Israel's obliteration of Gaza, you pop up with the claim that in fact it's the Palestinians' fault that Israel drops bombs on their childrens' heads.
If there is one thing that the last year has taught us is that Hamas using children as human shields would be totally ineffective, the IDF has no respect for the lives of Palestinian children.
I fact there is documented evidence that the IDF use Palestinian children themselves as human shields.
because that is precisely how the deterrent aspect of nuclear weapons works, it has zero deterrent value if your potential enemies don’t know you have it.
Strategic Ambiguity is also a good defence policy, which is the policy that Israel employs
14:34
UN accuses Israel of trying to 'destroy' Gaza healthcare
https://www.rte.ie/news/middle-east/2024/1010/1474643-middle-east-blog/
Investigators from the United Nations have said Israel is deliberately targeting health facilities and killing and torturing medical personnel in Gaza, accusing the country of "crimes against humanity".
"Israel has perpetrated a concerted policy to destroy Gaza's healthcare system as part of a broader assault on Gaza," the United Nations Independent International Commission of Inquiry said in a statement this afternoon.
Well there you go again. You want space to discuss topics other than Israeli war crimes, but when presented with, in this case, an article about child victims of Israel’s obliteration of Gaza, you pop up with the claim that in fact it’s the Palestinians’ fault that Israel drops bombs on their childrens’ heads.
I absolutely did not.
...But it is partly their fault. And by the way, Hamas' fault, not the Palestinians. They're different.
Hamas deliberately surround themselves with children when shooting at Israel. This is bad. Israel shoot back, with bombs. This is badder. Should we ignore Hamas?
Yes, this is Israel causing what's happening now. It does not make me an Israel supporter to say Hamas has something to do with it as well.
If there is one thing that the last year has taught us is that Hamas using children as human shields would be totally ineffective, the IDF has no respect for the lives of Palestinian children.
I fact there is documented evidence that the IDF use Palestinian children themselves as human shields.
I agree with everything there. It doesn't change anything I said. Are you implying there's no documentary evidence of Hamas using human shields?
Edit:
UN accuses Israel of trying to ‘destroy’ Gaza healthcare
And of course there's absolutely no excuse for this.
I want to focus on the ongoing slaughter of innocent people. I’m not going to apologise for that.
I wouldn't expect anyone to feel that they have to apologise for that.
Differences of opinion around peripheral topics can be interesting and informative but they do tend to normalise the atrocities we are witness to, so they’re hard to address appropriately.
It's a multi-faceted, inter-connected, multi-polar (and other buzzwords) world. These aren't only peripheral topics but intertwined and relevant to peace
For a Palestinian, what difference would it make?
An example. In 2018 President Trump moved the US Embassy from Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem. The State of Israel and the State of Palestine both claim Jerusalem as their capital, neither claim is widely recognised, but the move by Trump lends weight to Israel's claim, some would consider that significant.
Most immediately, we need to step up our efforts for a ceasefire and intensify the pressure for the release of hostages. (Gordon Brown)
Yes, I read the Gordon Brown article. A truly awful situation, but stunningly obvious and not immediately relevant writing (until we have peace in the middle east). The experience of the UN in war zones around the globe means that we already have that sort of expertise. What is there to comment on until we have peace?
You do realise that it you who is constantly challenging me and DrJ, not the other way round, don’t you?
If I'm challenging you then it's to widen the debate into the world where the solution lies. The solution isn't solely in Gaza, in Israel or solely anywhere else
Mark started this thread to discuss Gaza, any deviation is classed as “deflection” by Israel’s supporters on this thread, focusing on Gaza is now dismissed as not practical. I think we can safely say that some people would much rather no discussion at all took place.
It's a multi-faceted, inter-connected, multi-polar (and other buzzwords) world.You can't discuss Gaza in isolation, "ernielynch An Israeli Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Sites Would Push Tehran to Build a Bomb" 14 hours ago.
An example. In 2018 President Trump moved the US Embassy from Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem. The State of Israel and the State of Palestine both claim Jerusalem as their capital, neither claim is widely recognised, but the move by Trump lends weight to Israel’s claim, some would consider that significant.
But it didn't cost any lives, so compared with the impact of Biden's ongoing supply of bombs it is of zero consequence. I'm sure Trump would be no less keen to keep sending supplies to help the killing of brown people, but it's not night and day.
Israeli forces fire on UN peacekeepers in Lebanon
https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/10/1155551
“UNIFIL’s Naqoura headquarters and nearby positions have been repeatedly hit,” the UN mission said in a statement. “This morning, two peacekeepers were injured after an IDF Merkava tank fired its weapon toward an observation tower at UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura, directly hitting it and causing them to fall.
This is what the IDF think about children:
65 Doctors, Nurses and Paramedics: What We Saw in Gaza
I worked as a trauma surgeon in Gaza from March 25 to April 8. I’ve volunteered in Ukraine and Haiti, and I grew up in Flint, Mich. I’ve seen violence and worked in conflict zones. But of the many things that stood out about working in a hospital in Gaza, one got to me: Nearly every day I was there, I saw a new young child who had been shot in the head or the chest, virtually all of whom went on to die. Thirteen in total.
At the time, I assumed this had to be the work of a particularly sadistic soldier located nearby. But after returning home, I met an emergency medicine physician who had worked in a different hospital in Gaza two months before me. “I couldn’t believe the number of kids I saw shot in the head,” I told him. To my surprise, he responded: “Yeah, me, too. Every single day.”
Shooting at UN Peacekeepers now?
But, I suppose if all you ever get for your thuggery is strong words, then you tend not to give a toss.
This is what the IDF think about children:5 6 Doctors, Nurses and Paramedics: What We Saw in Gaza
The two authors of the report though are, like the two main antagonists in this forum thread, well known one sided activists outside their day job. One has a twitter history of familiar sounding quotes comparing Israel to the Nazis and the other is down with calling October 7th last year an innovative and astounding achievement.
The two authors of the report though are, like the two main antagonists in this forum thread, well known one sided activists outside their day job. One has a twitter history of familiar sounding quotes comparing Israel to the Nazis and the other is down with calling October 7th last year an innovative and astounding achievement.
Is there some aspect of the report you wish to challenge? Or is ad hominem all you’ve got?
"You have to watch this immensely revealing and horrifying testimony by Jewish-American humanitarian surgeon Mark Perlmutter who spent 2 weeks in Gaza"
https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1815494340635963690
The two authors of the report though are, like the two main antagonists in this forum thread, well known one sided activists outside their day job.
I guess you also have similar disdain for the reporting from unicef, oxfam, save the children and if that’s not enough to shift your opinion then perhaps spend 30mins on Twitter, TikTok and see what you come up with.
Here’s another one sided activist/consultant plastic surgeon talking of her time in Gaza and the difficulties in being “allowed” into the country by COGAT (Israeli military of defence)
My mum was across at Wigtown book festival last weekend (only 30mins away) for a talk by Lindsey Hilsum and to get her book signed, Lindsey was wearing a keffiyeh and talked of reports from those she knows and trusts in Gaza - she was utterly scathing of what’s happening to the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank , then again perhaps she is also a well known one sided activist outside her normal job reporting from war zones.
https://twitter.com/lindseyhilsum/status/1842987211312202039?s=61&t=27Xz8oI3pGlaNEQvowJBcg
Oh look!, another one sided activist outside his normal day job
https://youtu.be/oNk7YDq_Axs?si=90E_Bwju7hdvCWvg
I could carry on if you like?
Last Sunday :
IDF chief says Hamas is 'defeated' as Israel turns focus to Hezbollah after year of war in Gaza
Yesterday :
'Catastrophic situation’ at children’s hospital as Israel renews Gaza attacks
Dr Husam Abu Safiyeh, the director of Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahiya, said it had not been possible to comply with an Israeli army order to evacuate all patients within 24 hours.
The Israeli military said the latest raid was intended to stop Hamas fighters staging further attacks from Jabaliya and to prevent them from regrouping.
What are they going to escalate to next? Stronger words? Cessation of chocolate imports?
Well, as you no doubt guessed, they are going to do nothing at all. Meanwhile…
A US-made munition was used in a strike on central Beirut that killed 22 people and wounded 117, according to an analysis of shrapnel found by the Guardian at the scene of the attack.
The strike on Thursday night hit an apartment complex in the densely populated neighbourhood of Basta, levelling the apartment building and destroying cars and the interiors of nearby residences.
15.40 EDT
Biden 'absolutely' asking Israel to stop firing at UN peacekeepers
Joe Biden said he is asking Israel to stop firing at UN peacekeepers in Lebanon, after two incidents in which Blue Helmets were wounded by Israeli forces.
Asked by a reporter at the White House if he was asking Israel to stop, the US president replied on Friday:
Absolutely, positively
"Joe Biden said he is asking Israel to stop firing at UN peacekeepers in Lebanon, after two incidents in which Blue Helmets were wounded by Israeli forces."
I wonder if Biden has considered the option of telling the Israelis to stop shooting at UN peacekeepers rather than just asking them to stop?
After all shooting at UN peacekeepers is a violation of international humanitarian law, so maybe a stronger stance might be appropriate?
I wonder if Biden has considered the option of telling the Israelis to stop shooting at UN peacekeepers rather than just asking them to stop?
Well, steady on. First he needs to ask the Israelis if they pretty please might possibly consider undertaking an investigation into whether the Israelis might have inadvertently fired at UNIFIL, and then wait until they provide a thorough and impartial report saying that they definitely had nothing to do with it.
Oh no, Israel admitted straight away that they were responsible. The excuse they give is basically the same one as they give when they hit hospitals, UN shelters, schools, etc,...... terrorists were in the location and these terrorists were deliberately using the hospital, schools, and in this case a UN peacekeeping compound, as shields.
You think I'm kidding don't you?
"The Israeli military expressed “deep concern” and said two peacekeepers had been injured by Israeli fire as it was engaging Hezbollah. It said they had been warned hours earlier to take shelter."
I am sure they are really really sorry. Just like they are really really sorry when they strike a hospital or an UN school and kill dozens of children.
UN don't appear to have backed up the IDF's claims that Hezbollah fighters were 50 metres away from UN peacekeepers and that they had opened fire, but then according to Netanyahu and his far-right government the UN is anti-semitic so presumably that is the reason why.
This podcast is a good listen, Ezra Klein Wikipedia link here interviews Ta-Nehisi Coates Wikipedia link here
In his new book of essays, “The Message,” Ta-Nehisi Coates writes about a trip he took to Israel and the West Bank in May 2023. “I felt lied to,” he told me. “I felt lied to by my craft. I felt lied to by major media organizations.”
Coates’s essay is a searing portrait of Palestinian life under Israeli rule. It has also been criticized for leaving much out: Hamas is never mentioned. Nor is Oct. 7. Nor are any of the peace processes. So I asked him on the show to discuss what he saw when he was there and what he chose to leave outside the frame.
Dr Victoria Rose is a Consultant Plastic Surgeon from King's College Hospital who has worked for Medical Aid for Palestine in Gaza during the latest Israeli onslaught. She will be one of the main speakers tomorrow evening at 6pm at a vigil for Gaza outside Crystal Palace Park opposite the Westow House Pub.
This podcast is a good listen, Ezra Klein Wikipedia link here interviews Ta-Nehisi Coates Wikipedia link here
Thanks for the link. Interesting interview and the “bibliography” has some informative articles
But does she condemn Hamas?
Well I have just heard her speak and no she did not condemn Hamas, nor did she condemn the IDF/Israel. She spoke of her experiences as a doctor in Gaza and the desperate humanitarian/medical situation there.
She said that what touched her most was the dedication of Palestinian medical staff who had leave their families behind to deal with the appalling medical crisis. She said that every single medical staff she met had lost loved ones themselves...... partner, child, parent, or sibling.
She did end by condemning the British government for not speaking out against the horrors being committed in Gaza.
Horrific scenes (apparently) of patients in Al Aqsa hospital alive in beds, unable to move, as everything around them is engulfed in flames, after an IDF attack last night.
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine I can understand (in a simple layman's war anyway) what's happening from a military action point of view. But all through the last year I've struggled with the IDFs actions in Gaza. They release statements saying Hamas in location X have been defeated, and then they drop bombs in the same area. Or there's a map showing that the IDF are basically everywhere in Gaza, and then there's an attack, and then they spend 2 weeks clearing through a hospital, then attack it again later on. Or they post videos of themselves rigging a university building or a residential block of flats with demolition charges and then blow it up, why?! If you can safely move around to prep it for demolition then you don't really need to demolish it, surely? I know it's not a war of open territory in the same way as Ukraine but I just can't get my head around it. And if Hamas still has "command centres" in Gaza after all this then the IDF approach clearly isn't working, but they're just going to carry on dropping bombs on refugees in tents and destroying hospitals?
Why? Ethnic cleansing aka 'mowing the lawn' whilst the world looks on and they are actively supported by the USA, UK and Germany.
I nearly put "working" in quote marks because it's not working militarily, but it is in terms of punishing the entire population whole also shifting the window of what's allowed as "defensive" action.
I saw someone else making the point that stuff like this is how you end up with extremists, because every mainstream politician is saying that this is all good actually, and so you feel like there's no legitimate power you can speak to to try to stop any of it. The most you'll get is "Biden pulled a frowny face while signing the order to deliver more 2000lbs bombs". And when people feel like they're witnessing a great injustice that they have no legitimate war of stopping then they're more likely to turn to illegitimate means instead.
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine I can understand (in a simple layman’s war anyway) what’s happening from a military action point of view. But all through the last year I’ve struggled with the IDFs actions in Gaza. They release statements saying Hamas in location X have been defeated, and then they drop bombs in the same area. Or there’s a map showing that the IDF are basically everywhere in Gaza, and then there’s an attack, and then they spend 2 weeks clearing through a hospital, then attack it again later on. Or they post videos of themselves rigging a university building or a residential block of flats with demolition charges and then blow it up, why?! If you can safely move around to prep it for demolition then you don’t really need to demolish it, surely? I know it’s not a war of open territory in the same way as Ukraine but I just can’t get my head around it. And if Hamas still has “command centres” in Gaza after all this then the IDF approach clearly isn’t working, but they’re just going to carry on dropping bombs on refugees in tents and destroying hospitals?
Two main reasons IMO:
Partly (mostly?) what BillMC said, because they aren't just fighting Hamas....
Also I think because they aren't actually doing as well against Hamas as they'd like to, which is why they say "Hamas is defeated in area X!" and then a Hamas guy pops up there so Israel throw another airstrike at the area... and repeat.
I often find myself thinking "WTF are they doing" where there seems to be no strategic gain at all, for example strikes on UNIFIL, I mean why? I find it hard to believe that it's always as simple as "Israel don't care and they're just killing everyone in sight" and think that it must be often either a mistake (but no one believes them) or that there is some reason (but no one believes them. Or knows the real reason). It's almost certainly a complicated situation and a mix of all the above.
Re. UNIFIL though, seeing as there is so much Hezbollah activity in the area it does somewhat beg the question of what exactly UNIFIL's been doing or what the point of them is.
In other news, I find myself waiting for the shoe to drop with Iran... what's going on there?
It's been nearly two weeks and Israel's threatened response is nowhere to be seen. Did they really have no sort of prepared plan already in place for something like this? Is it international pressure trying to get them to lower the response? Politics or military causing the delay? Are they (please) going to give up on the idea and find some other way of saving face?
It's making me tense waiting for the big explosion.
The US have moved a THAAD battery (and the soldiers to man it) to Israel. They only have 7 or 8 in total so are they expecting something and are getting in place to intercept it?
The UN informs Israel that a school will be used for administration of the polio vaccine today, Israel bombs the school saying it was used as a Hamas centre
Perfectly normal behaviour for the genocidal overlords
The UN informs Israel that a school will be used for administration of the polio vaccine today, Israel bombs the school saying it was used as a Hamas centre
That's horrible. Do you have a link? Can't find any info about this.
And can't embed links on twitter but it's reported on UN site
Re. UNIFIL though, seeing as there is so much Hezbollah activity in the area it does somewhat beg the question of what exactly UNIFIL’s been doing or what the point of them is.
None of which, of course, justifies Israel shooting at them.
Israel complaining that others are not abiding by UN resolutions is a walking talking definition of “chutzpah”
"Targeting Hamas" is the new "He fell down the stairs, guv" or "Shot whilst trying to escape".
But, I'm sure it'll all stop soon. Someone has said they're really quite cross about Israel targeting UN peacekeepers. That's bound to make Netanyahu think twice in future.
What I can’t understand is why Iran doesn’t come under more international condemnation for its Hezbolah/Hamas war with Israel. First Gaza and now Lebanon, both destroyed because of the hatred of Israel by Iran’s religious leaders.
Certainly Israel needs to be condemned for its actions. Nothing can excuse the slaughter of innocents, however until Iran stops funding their proxy armies. Israel will continue this decades long war.
Iran is the problem, and perhaps the Israelis should do something about it. I’m not convinced the rest of the Arab world would be too upset if they did.
Iran is the problem, and perhaps the Israelis should do something about it. I’m not convinced the rest of the Arab world would be too upset if they did.
Iran isn't an Arab nation and secondly it is much more powerful militarily than most people probably realise.
This website ranks Iran as the 14th most powerful nation on earth (out of 145) and Israel the 17th most powerful.
The only significant advantage Israel has over Iran is in airpower, in most other aspects Iran has a significant advantage over Israel.
https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.php?country1=iran&country2=israel
The big disadvantage that Israel has is that it is geared to fight quick short wars, in contrast Iran can sustain a long protracted war.
It would be madness for Israel to launch a full-scale war against Iran. And Iran certainly has no interest in engaging Israel directly, it doesn't need to.