First poll on the 2nd round has RN falling pretty well short of the majority
Anyone able to give an intelligent summary of what the recent exit polls mean?
Le Pens boys took one hell of a beating
TLDR: Vivè le France!
Mèlenchon is a bit of an arse but he's in a different league of terrible to the result that was feared.
Great example of what progressives can do if they stop bickering for once.
Haha. I've been thinking this for a while
Each poll saw the popular front numbers grow and the RNs shrink
https://twitter.com/ChrisKimberley/status/1809923500125106428?t=gNm4bENHl3OXcb9dfaRutw&s=19
I bet Reform have wasted a whole lot of time creating content ready to put online in preparation for an RN victory.
Wonderful.
Anyone able to give an intelligent summary of what the recent exit polls mean?
I am not sure its anything to celebrate,
After a battering in the first round the left and centrists have just about managed to make a fragile coalition for round two.
It came close to failing and I wouldnt be surprised if in the presidential elections in a couple of years time it does.
Thank **** for that.
Last thing we needed was a bunch of fascists only 21 miles away.
Now need the Americans to see sense and not elect the orange sub-human felon again. That may be a big ask as there's LOTS of inbreds that are too dumb to see it for what it really is.
Thank **** for that.
Last thing we needed was a bunch of fascists only 21 miles away.
Now need the Americans to see sense and not elect the orange sub-human felon again. That may be a big ask as there’s LOTS of inbreds that are too dumb to see it for what it really is.
I fear the EU will have to go it alone against Russia, we can't bank on the USA for support.
France has to be governed in the meantime and it would appear that the reality to be able to do this is very shaky. As said above, these alliances are very artificial and the general view seems to be that they won't hold together and agree very much at all.
Maybe having the spectre of the far right just over their shoulders will make them more pragmatic!
I am not sure its anything to celebrate,
After a battering in the first round the left and centrists have just about managed to make a fragile coalition for round two.
It came close to failing and I wouldnt be surprised if in the presidential elections in a couple of years time it does.
It isn't just me then! There's a lot of back-slapping going for what isn't a great result for a roll of the dice.
The economy will worsen
Why should raising the minimum wage and rolling back pension ages make the economy worse?
The last thing progressive parties should do is continue to voice the framework of neoliberalism that has brought the right so close to power. The right are focussing on the problems and giving false answers, it is time the left (and especially the centrists) stopped burying their heads in the sand about the problems of neoliberalism and started arguing for progressive solutions.
Why should raising the minimum wage and rolling back pension ages make the economy worse?
Increasing the minimum wage tends to increase inflation, you're not just raising minimum wage, you're having to raise each level after that usually due to the gaps being reduced between staff and staff with more responsibility. There is a weird circular effect that means those getting payrises, then tend to gain additional costs due to inflation.
The pensions age is a huge issue, in France it went up from 62 to 64, so to go back down without the working years guarantee would bring a lot more costs onto the governments books over the period in office.
Increasing the minimum wage tends to increase inflation,
That is just neolibral dogma, and frankly absolute bollocks.
The following is just a few anecdotes from a recent trip - not 100% sure why I'm sharing, but some of it's given me things to think about.
I happened to be staying in Nantes for a few nights last week. On the 1st night, me and my mate went for a wander and found a local event called Les Jeux de Bretagne (The Brittany Games), there was lots of fun stuff going on (bands, booze, pottery-based-basketball), but on the way in someone tried handing us National Rally flyers. Other than that it was a great event.
We wandered on from there to do some sight-seeing, after a while we spotted a street with lots of bars/cafes etc so headed down there (many had rainbows, so I assumed a pretty liberal area). We spotted the Euros playing on a screen in one bar and went in to catch the 2nd half. While in there we got chatting to the locals, it was one of those random nights - someone get a round of drinks in - it turns out to be the landlords birthday - another round - much merriment - left a lot later than intended - woke feeling pretty rough the next morning, but we'd had a good time. We decided to try to find the bar again a day or 2 later, and found it with the shutters down - shutters that had "RN" in huge graffiti bubble-writing on them.
shutters that had “RN” in huge graffiti bubble-writing on them.
Round here (Germany) the graffiti artists have been painting the EU flag on telekom boxes.
This looked like a commissioned piece rather than random graffiti, in fact they have it set as their cover photo on their Facebook page
(not sure why Andy Capp is on it...)
Why should raising the minimum wage and rolling back pension ages make the economy worse?
They weren't specifically linked sentences, however, the European Commission noted the following in its review of the European economy:
"France continues to experience imbalances. Vulnerabilities related to high government debt, and competitiveness and low productivity growth...". Increasing the retirement age would help increase productivity because there would be less frequent churn of experienced workers.
Pensions are also linked to debt, "According to the September 2022 projections by the pension advisory council (Conseil d’orientation des Retraites, COR), the current pension system would accumulate deficits in the long term of EUR 12.4 billion in 2027, EUR 13.5 billion in 2030 and EUR 21 billion in 2035. The measures envisaged by the reform are expected to bring the system back to balance by 2030, thanks to net savings..."
President Macron has broken his days of public silence with a letter to the press, so clearly not the result that he gambled on https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-left-centrists-tussle-form-government-2024-07-10/
He can say that as a result of the election that France doesn't have a far-right PM, but that wasn't the case before the election anyway.
The election put the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) ahead on seats in the left-wing alliance (NFP). The LFI has views on NATO, the EU and Israel that aren't mainstream in France
@edukator choice, Raphaël Glucksmann has suggested the more moderate Laurent Berger as PM, what's your take, Ed?
The LFI has views on NATO, the EU and Israel that aren’t mainstream in France
How much out of odds are they with mainstream public opinion? According to a YouGov poll a week ago only 13% of French voters sympathise with Israel most:
https://yougov.co.uk/international/articles/45869-attitudes-israel-palestine-conflict-western-europe
And whilst I don't doubt that NATO membership is popular how widespread is that popularity? I can't imagine that it is that popular, certainly not as popular as in Britian, even conservative politicians have a long history of holding NATO at arms length due to US dominance over the alliance. When I did my military service France wasn't even a member of NATO and that was under a right-wing president. Obviously it did work closely with NATO though, but it wasn't integrated into the NATO command structure.
How much out of odds are they with mainstream public opinion
LFI failed to condemn the 7th October 2023 kidnapping and murder of Israelis, referring to it in a press release as "L'offensive armée de forces palestiniennes menée par le Hamas..." (*The armed offensive by Palestinian forces led by Hamas (designated a terrorist organisation by the EU)). French PM Elisabeth Borne, "a étrillé dimanche les "ambiguïtés révoltantes" d’une partie de la gauche" (*on Sunday slammed the "revolting ambiguities" of a part of the left) *Thanks google translate.
I'd suggest that allegations of anti-semitism are also against mainstream public opinion:
A march supporting French values and against anti-semitism was held on 11th November 2023. RN supported the march, but LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon tweeted that his party wouldn't go to a "rendezvous for unconditional supporters of the massacre [of Gazans]".
During European election campaigning in April, Mélenchon compared the president of Lille Uni to Adolph Eichmann
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_139272.htm
A march supporting French values and against anti-semitism was held on 11th November 2023. RN supported the march, but LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon tweeted that his party wouldn’t go to a “rendezvous for unconditional supporters of the massacre [of Gazans]”.
I would be disappointed if that was strongly at odds with French public opinion. Wtf are French values? IMO French values means complimenting a good cheese with an excellent red wine but I'm guessing that in this case, like when Nigel Farage speaks of British values, that it is an attack on Muslims.
And I am not in the least bit surprised that the RN supported the march, didn't zionists largely back the far-right in the legislative elections? A couple of weeks ago Stephen Lennon aka Tommy Robinson was arrested in Canada where he had gone on a speaking tour at the invitation of a far-right Canadian zionist.
So it is nothing out of the ordinary for the far-right in Europe to come out in support of the far-right Israeli government.
And whilst I don’t doubt that NATO membership is popular how widespread is that popularity?
That's disingenuous ernie as you very well know. France was a founder-member of NATO in 1949 and at one time NATO had its HQ at Palais de Chaillot, Paris.
France only withdrew in 1966 because President De Gaulle wasn't pleased with the US over Suez, French Vietnam, etc, and wanted nuclear autonomy.
The 1967 Ailleret-Lemnitzer Accords and 1974 Valentin-Ferber Accords allowed France to participate in NATO operations and France was also present in many NATO operations, e.g. N. Macedonia and Afghanistan up to rejoining in 2009
IMO French values means complimenting a good cheese with an excellent red wine...
You seem to have skirted the allegations of anti-semitism
It is absolutely not disingenuous to say that I don't doubt that NATO membership might be popular but to question how popular it is.
It would certainly not appear to be as popular as membership is in the UK, largely due to a very different attitude to the United States.
Here the "Special Relationship" with the United States, which only exists in the minds of British politicians, is publicly celebrated and valued. In contrast French politicians celebrate their independence from US hegemony.
This goes to the heart of why France for a while withdrew from NATO, under conservative governments.
And have you really forgotten Jacque Chirac publicly telling the US president on the eve of military operations in Iraq, which most NATO countries were ready to engage in, "this is not a game and it is not over", as he tried to stop the escalation to war. Chirac was no leftie btw.
I actually think it is rather disingenuous of you to pretend that there is no chance of significant opposition to NATO in France. I have no idea of what the polls say though.
You seem to have skirted the allegations of anti-semitism
Skirted ? I reject the allegation that the left are anti-semitic. How's that?
You have totally ignored my claim that many zionists voted for the far-right in the French legislative elections. Never mind skirted round it.
And have you really forgotten Jacque Chirac publicly telling the US president on the eve of military operations in Iraq, which most NATO countries were ready to engage in, “this is not a game and it is not over”, as he tried to stop the escalation to war. Chirac was no leftie btw.
I don't understand your point. He was opposed to the 2003 war in Iraq, which was nothing to do with NATO
I actually think it is rather disingenuous of you to pretend that there is no chance of significant opposition to NATO in France. I have no idea of what the polls say though.
I've no more idea than you, but to leave in 1966 and sign agreements in 1967 and 1974 to take part in operations seems to suggest a politician following the electorate, as successive presidents did until rejoining in 2009
don’t understand your point.
It had loads to do with NATO and US hegemony and the point was to highlight the difference between the UK and France over the issues.
I very quick Google check throws up the claim by Pew Research that 38% of French voters have an unfavorable view of NATO whilst 49% have a favourable view, it's clearly not a massive difference which suggests that any criticism of NATO by Left politicians isn't that much at odds with mainstream opinion.
An unfavourable opinion of NATO appears to exceed the support that the Left received in the latest elections.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/02/09/nato-seen-favorably-across-member-states/
Edit: Anyway I think it's safe to say that we are unlikely to agree so let's leave it there
I reject the allegation that the left are anti-semitic
The other parties in the left alliance (NPF) are far from anti-semitic, the exact opposite really. But Mélenchon and many others in LFI are. Sadly they (and the votes they have received) are needed by the left if they are to take advantage of being the largest grouping. I don't think they would survive putting him forward to be prime minister, many in the other left-wing parties would be revolted by that. I suspect Glucksmann or Vallaud (Socialist) as the most likely safe bet, but would love it to be Tondelier or Rousseau (Greens) if they really want to take the fight to RN in rural areas.
Edit: Anyway I think it’s safe to say that we are unlikely to agree so let’s leave it there
Thumbs emoji (seems to have stopped working)
You seem to have skirted the allegations of anti-semitism
I am just going to point out once more that being critical of Isreal and supportive of Palestinians does not make you anti semtic
But Mélenchon and many others in LFI are.
Evidence ? Genuine interest but I would like to see if statements they have made are actually anti semetic. I know very little of French politics
I am just going to point out once more that being critical of Isreal and supportive of Palestinians does not make you anti semtic
Mélenchon has a long history of allegations. He's careful about what he says and does, but what does he think? https://www.thejc.com/news/world/what-does-the-rise-of-melenchon-mean-for-french-jews-w5e89k6s
PS apologies all; I seem to have a stray, disconnected link in one one post and half a quote, which led to some confusion, in another ^^
so a jewish chronicle link with vague allegations one may just about reach the definition and the Jewish Chronicle does not label him an anti semite Is he careful about what he says to cover up what he thinks or is he actually just very critical of Israel and being honest?
Not convinced I have to say from that
The snap French election fiasco is still bubbling.
Two months after causing himself a huge problem, President Macron's caretaker government risks missing its 2024 target deficit of 5.1% of GDP. Tax revenue is falling short of expectations and spending is too high https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-finance-ministry-warns-deficit-risk-tax-shortfall-media-2024-09-02/
President Macron still hasn't decided on a PM appointment, allegedly because his ideal candidate is one who wouldn't increase taxes and reform retirement, which are two of his economic "legacies" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wanted-pliable-french-pm-who-will-not-torpedo-macrons-legislative-legacy-2024-09-04/
People working longer (from age 62 to age 64) will pay lower taxes for longer to balance the books, but I worry about contributions to Ukraine (for example) being cut to save money
From the outside it looks like Macron is throwing a hissy fit because he doesn't like the election results, and is showing himself to be a bit of a despot.
I don't think you need to worry about contributions to Ukraine, Timba.
Macron knows he can't please all the people all the time but know he needs to please enough to get a functioning gouvernement. I think he's going through the potential candidates until more by luck than judgement he finds one that is acceptable to enough and won't overturn all of his reforms. He'll fail and end up appointing one who won't overturn all of his reforms but many.
As for not liking the results of the election, he called it and it's exactly what the polls and common sense predicted. He knew what was coming, read my posts back through this thread - Front Populair then a Front Républicain then a coalition of some sorts. It's working out who is prepared to agree what with whom that's taking time.
Meanwhile the country is trundling along just fine for most people which is better than before the elections so going to the polls has been proved a good idea. Everyone has been given a voice, we know where we stand and we'll see what happens before throwing any more cobbles.
I think he’s going through the potential candidates until more by luck than judgement he finds one that is acceptable to enough and won’t overturn all of his reforms. He’ll fail and end up appointing one who won’t overturn all of his reforms but many.
Is he likely to resign as some in French media and former-PM Edouard Philippe seem to think?
I'm not convinced that it's in President Macron's character for him to think like that
And it's Barnier. Having got the UK to sign away its soul in the withdrawal agreement Michel Barnier now has the far trickier task of herding 65 million frogs. He'll have to swap his brexit 'no can do' to 'yes we can' if he's to survive longer than Edith Cresson.
