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If this is a common view among remainers then they’ve already conceded defeat and there’s no reason to delay any further as it’s only delaying the inevitable.
If you're going to say it's wrong to vote for a party with 20 or under % in the opinion polls because they can't win then that imposes a moral obligation on all of us to vote for Boris.
In this coming election there are no safe seats. Brexit changed everything. Remainers will be voting LD.
The LibDems will probably be the fourth largest party after the election, behind the SNP (even if they match Labour’s vote share, which I doubt they will), because …FPTP. I’m hoping that can take our 15 or more Tory MPs. But they absolutely should be making it clear what their programme for government would be if they did win though… no one should be expected to vote in a general election for a party with no programme for government.
Lots of people who are pro-remain really don’t give as much of a **** as people on this thread seem to think.
I hope you're wrong, but I do fear you may be right. Sharing memes on FB is easy, voting requires a modicum of effort.
no one should be expected to vote in a general election for a party with no programme for government.
In normal times, no.
With Brexit on the Agenda? I expect leavers to be voting BP or Tory without much thought for domestic policy and reaminers to be voting LD without much thought for domestic policy. It's only five years, Brexit is much longer term.
If you look at the latest opinion polls versus the actual %split of votes at the 2015 GE, what's really changed?
Con have picked up some of the UKIP vote (that hasn't transferred directly to the Brexit Party) taking them from 37 to 40%. Lib Dems have picked up some of the Labour voters who I guess do GAF about Brexit, but that's only taken them from 8 to 15%, so they're still a comfortable third.
Does anyone have a link to how the polls are translating into parliamentary constituencies?
Does anyone have a link to how the polls are translating into parliamentary constituencies?
That's what nobody knows this time. Nobody has a spreadsheet for which voters from which parties in which constituencies are remain/leave.
Typically the BP would take more Tory voters than Lab but there are plenty of constituencies where (say) most of the Remainers are Tory, most of the Leavers are Labour. It's all in the air.
I heard a podcast with a polster who reckoned he had a good approximation but he didn't sound that sure and clearly it's totally untested.
Does anyone have a link to how the polls are translating into parliamentary constituencies?
even if Leave voting Labour constituencies that have the Labour MPs that are desperate to vote for Brexit, 2/3rd of Labour voters apparently voted remain
so who knows?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50206257
Unless we have a GE 1st Bassetlaw by-election will test wtf voters think
(BXP took as many voters from Tories as Labour at European elections, but Tories hoovered up all UKIP votes at 2017 GE, but still 10% behind Labour)
Unless we have a GE 1st by-election will test wtf voters think
For sure.
"We've" just elected a solid remainer PPC (Sally Gimson who is married to a Tory - for shits and giggles) in Bassetlaw to replace John Mann. (NEC shipped in non-local)
I'm pretty sure despite being a Labour strong-hold (although close at the last election) the fact that Mann was a rabid leaver - Bassetlaw will go Tory or Brexit party, like neighboring Mansfield.
Decimated by the Tories - but we will vote for you over Labour.
Corbyn's no.1 issue is right here.
The rule book is completely messed up now.
Yeah according to polls swing from Labour -> Tories is about 6% since 2017
With Bassetlaw being 20% above average leave vote during ref that would still be short of the 10% swing Tories would need to take the seat, so would mean a lot of Labour remainers to switch, not saying it wouldnt happen, just that would be a big swing & be all about what the BXP ltd do (they cleaned up at Europeans & would be the very place they'd fancy their chances at getting an MP elected)
We're down to about a 5000 (2017) and trend shrinking majority.
Question is by-election or GE first?
BXP candidate (Debbie Soloman) is a very active campaigner (but deluded in her logic - not that it matters) I must say. It's how much she takes from Tories and Labour.
Yeah according to polls swing from Labour -> Tories is about 6% since 2017
With Bassetlaw being 20% above average leave vote during ref that would still be short of the 10% swing Tories would need to take the seat, so would mean a lot of Labour remainers to switch, not saying it wouldnt happen, just that would be a big swing & be all about what the BXP ltd do
Impossible to predict. For all we know every single Labour voter is a remainer and won't touch Labour *or* the Cons. Or maybe every single Labour voter is a leaver and will hold their nose and vote Tory/BP. Or any other combination.
On top of all that will people bother to vote knowing the opposition is currently in the majority so there will be another election in a very short while.
I think the one thing this by election will show is that it's all impossible to predict right now and there's no such thing as a safe seat.
and there’s no such thing as a safe seat.
I think there are still plenty of safe seats. Its just slightly less than before.
I would be absolutely amazed if any of the seats I have lived in switch (mix of Labour and tory safe seats).
I think the one thing this by election will show is that it’s all impossible to predict right now and there’s no such thing as a safe seat.
All of the above.
I think we're all that messed up now that even I can't remember who to vote for.
finally we're all agreed on something
we live in 'interesting times'
We have an extension!
Pro: Boris dead in a ditch
Con: Katie Hopkins is now going to appear naked with little pics of Nigel in strategic places. The ultimate Halloween horror...
I think we’re all that messed up now that even I can’t remember who to vote for.
Which seat? Some are very hard to make a choice in.
It’s easy here… it has to be Labour.
Pro: Boris dead in a ditch
Con: Katie Hopkins is now going to appear naked with little pics of Nigel in strategic places. The ultimate Halloween horror…
On balance I'd say the former is worth the latter.
As he's a serial lying piece of filthy toerag I can't see him following through with his promise though.
It’s easy here… it has to be Labour.
My tongue is in my cheek.
I will be voting Labour. Bassetlaw as mentioned.
Just listened to BBC Food Program using the Tomato as an illustration of post Brexit food complexities. I was driving at the time so didn't need to devote time specifically for it.
It is well worth a listen as a couple of things I never new before came to light.
Apparently food standards are devolved to Scotland and Wales so if England wants to sign a trade deal with somewhere iffy then the devolved governments can/could in theory refuse to accept it.
There is also an interesting analysis of the geopolitical problems of ditching UK food production in order to buy cheap food from around the world.
Its worth a listen if you are driving or working on yer bike.
SNP seem to be demanding 16/17yo get the vote for this upcoming election.
I’m pretty sure despite being a Labour strong-hold (although close at the last election) the fact that Mann was a rabid leaver – Bassetlaw will go Tory or Brexit party, like neighboring Mansfield.
And no doubt the interpretation of this will be that labour should be more pro-remain.
And now the EU have said the WA won’t be renegociated
They said that before repeatedly. What did they do
They didn't really renegotiate. Boris came along and gave a load of stuff away, and they shrugged and said "well, if you're sure that's what you want". It must be the first time in history that someone has got their side to back something by offering them a substantially worse deal full of things they had all said they would never accept. Insane.
SNP seem to be demanding 16/17yo get the vote for this upcoming election.
They call for this for everything. And good on them for using every opportunity to press for it.
They didn’t really renegotiate. Boris came along and gave a load of stuff away, and they shrugged and said “well, if you’re sure that’s what you want”. It must be the first time in history that someone has got their side to back something by offering them a substantially worse deal full of things they had all said they would never accept. Insane.
To be fair on Johnson the EU did kick the can on the level playing field down the road, but the big change was to replace the backstop with a frontstop, this was hailed as a victory 🙄🙄
And no doubt the interpretation of this will be that labour should be more pro-remain.
Yep. But it would be wrong in this instance.
Well, I would like to vote for the biggest party that is ‘remain’, so it has to be the LibDems for me. It would and should be Labour, but.....
I certainly don’t want to contribute to the ‘80% of people voted for a party that wants to Brexit’ narrative, and Magic Grandpa has done bugger all to dispel that.
I think there will be plenty of tactical voting. In my constituency I'm already hearing about a serious campaign to get ride of Rees Mogg. He's so massively disliked by most sensible people in the constituency that they'd be prepared to forego their usual voting intentions just to get rid of him.
JP
I think there will be plenty of tactical voting.
With luck, I think it's going to be needed.
In my constituency Failing Grayling got more than everyone else put together.
No point voting tactically.
and Magic Grandpa has done bugger all to dispel that.
Well apart from the guaranteed referendum including a remain vote. Aside from that.
Good to see the hard right memes working.
Problem is that with twenty-one tory seats being vacated by mps losing the whip those that are safe seats are being targeted by tories who might be in danger of being voted out of the current meal ticket.
I heard Johnson was looking at moving from his current dungheap to another.
Yep Johnson wants to exit Uxbridge , he did promise to stop Heathrow expansion , bulldozers etc
Then flew off on day of vote
How he gets away with it all is amazing!
Good to see the hard right memes working.
Troll-a-lol.
The Labour Party is, well Corbyn is, we must assume deliberately, selling Brexit as a positive for the UK… just not if delivered by someone else. The whole selling of the 2017 Labour vote as being support for Brexit comes from Labour front benchers… Many of us voted Labour (in my case for the first time) back in 2017 partly to ‘stop May’ with her redlines… only to get our vote used by Labour to support her redlines… most notably as regards stopping freedom of movement. Many are now very reluctant to vote Labour again because of how their vote was used for two years, to not only enable Brexit, but also to destroy any route to a softer Brexit.
I think I'd have to vote Labour in a GE purely on the remain vs deal 1.3
In calderdale it was really close between a diabolical tory and Labour. the lib dems barely registered in the 2017 GE.
I'd rather the lib dems got a revoke mandate, but I'm prepared to hold my nose and vote labour given my local demographic, and get a legally binding deal vs revoke ref2.
As Kelvin said, I'm deeply suspicious of Labour for the reasons outlined.. A vote for Labour was endorsing brexit. Worst most damaging spin ever..
I still to this day don't know what corbyns Labour wants, but a straight up revocation of a50 seems off the table for the moment, so a solid (legal this time) referendum seems best.
In short, my local area is 40/40 tory /Labour 10/10 lib dem or 'other' so it will be a purely tactical vote.
I'd rather vote lib dem.
Gina Miller is preparing a website to help with tactical voting.
She seems pretty good at what she does.
Ooooh look, post Brexit Britain!
Mind boggling more devils in the WA Bill
UK gives up £7bn windfall from European Investment Bank ...
Wow. Page 3.
How to hammer home the effect of the Hard Brexit before us… use measurements people instinctively understand… “the size of Wales”…
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-punches-20755183
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research decided to assess the impact after the government refused to do so - claiming it wasn't needed.
Experts said that even if a free trade agreement is agreed with the EU by January 2021, which critics claim is impossible, the UK GDP will be 3.5% smaller each year "in perpetuity" than if we'd stayed in the EU.
"This is roughly equivalent to losing the annual output of Wales," the think tank concluded.
NIESR economist Arno Hantzsche added: "We don't expect there to be a 'deal dividend' at all.
Experts said that even if a free trade agreement is agreed with the EU by January 2021, which critics claim is impossible, the UK GDP will be 3.5% smaller each year
Unfortunately it didn't, it said 3.5% in the long run, by which I think they mean 10 years, not per annum. Link
Oh, well that's alright then.
Here's us thinking we'll be completely *ed when the reality is that we'll only be moderately *ed for the next decade.
From mefty's link,
The economy is estimated to be 2½ per cent smaller now than it would otherwise have been as a result of the 2016 Brexit vote.
Our economy is 2% smaller than it should be simply because we're talking about leaving the EU. We've not left yet.
Project fear, anyone?
Business wants certainty. God knows when they'll get it.
It actually says:
GDP will be 3% per cent smaller each year in perpetuity than it would have been had the UK stayed an EU member.
STW posters in selective quoting (lying and making stuff up) none shocker.
Project fear, anyone?
Fortunately there is some commentary on that in the report I linked - SPOILER ALERT - it massively overestimated the consequences.
STW posters in selective quoting (lying and making stuff up) none shocker.
Completely mystified by this, I was making the point that it was over a ten year period than than per annum.
So, we’re expected to be worse off, in terms equivalent to closing down the whole of the Welsh economy, if we leave with Johnson’s WA rather than cancelling Brexit.
Still cries of “Project Fear” from the die hards. Because the government’s own figures show that… er… who needs figures?!?
The current mess is already making us worse off. Leaving with Johnson’s WA will make us worse off than leaving with May’s WA. Leaving with May’s WA would make us worse off then staying in the EEA. Leaving the EU to be in the EEA would make us worse off than keeping full EU membership.
Lots of options there. Staying an EU member makes the most sense economically… but there are lots of less damaging approaches than Johnson’s that politicians can pursue if they want to try and find a compromise to put to us.
it said 3.5% in the long run
Selective quoting of headline that suits your narrative.
Unfortunately it didn’t
Lie.
which I think they mean 10 years
Making stuff up.
Entirely unsurprising you can't grasp things like that - psuedo-intellectualism at its best.
So a report says that we'll be worse off, and your rebuttal is that we will indeed be worse off but less so than other posters have interpreted? Have I got that right?
Sounds awesome, sign me up.
Theres a very good reason Johnson is too scared to produce any impact assessments for his Brexit deal
because like that study mentioned shows, the country will be many £billions poorer
Austerity for another decade, yaay, Brexit !!!
How many hospitals and/or schools is 3.5%?
It would be nice to know in those sort of terms what it costs to do something entirely stupid and self-inflicted.
When the Leave fanbois are reduced to having their best 'sell' as "it won't be as bad as you thought, but it will still be bad" then I think we have reached peak stupidity.
Tell you what, why don't you slam a kitchen drawer on your hand when you get home tonight and then take some solace IF (and only 'if', mind) it doesn't hurt quite as much as you thought it might?
No doubt all those who retired at 60 and 65 will salute us proud patriots who will be working beyond 72.
You ****s didn't even fight in the war or have to make any sacrifice for your brexit.
It's us poor sods who will work til death who will pay for it.
**** you , you ignorant selfish ****s.
So, do I fill this in now or wait a bit? Seems an awful waste of a perfectly good ditch, especially given the significance of today
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No doubt all those who retired at 60 and 65 will salute us proud patriots who will be working beyond 72.
Give it a rest. Less of the "ALL". I and most of my mates are over 60 and I know of 1 brexiter amongst them.
So, do I fill this in now or wait a bit?
Keep it. Even if Johnson doesnt want it it might come in useful when Francois and co explode. Since surely they at least will keep their word as officer and gentlemen?
In other news, Susanna Reid was on form yesterday.
https://twitter.com/GMB/status/1189457934125846528
EDIT: Weird embedding, I mean the lower video.
How many hospitals and/or schools is 3.5%
Who cares? The sensible thing to do is write something like 'brexit had already cost 5% of GDP, and will cost 7% of GDP year on year - let's fund our schools instead' on the side of many buses up and down the country. That'll get the f@333ers thinking about how must this is costing, and continuing to talk about it.
Write to your leave mp and ask how much income and council tax will go down after brexit.
How soon will your local roads be fixed as we all know we pay for smooth euro roads.
Basically get them to acknowledge that things are going to be worse.
And, if you do that, they will ignore you/fob you off, or will start thinking that they are being threatened and get you visited by plod.
Basically get them to acknowledge that things are going to be worse.
You are expecting them to be honest?
3.5% is 10x the cost of being in.
Or 12.5million hip replacements a year.
Just sayin...
Over on that Facebook, an Australian asked what's going on with brexit. I replied and it got a bit long, so I thought I'd share.
>>
Brexit: The story so far.
In 2016, in order to try and resolve Tory infighting we had a national opinion poll where the public were promised sunny uplands, unicorns and free solid gold houses for everyone. Immediately after the vote it was announced that there was no free money and the unicorn was actually a zebra with an ice cream cone stapled to its forehead. Many people didn't seem to care about this abject lie because they don't like foreigners, or something. David Cameron, the dead-pig-molester who started all this and promised faithfully that he'd see it through whatever the outcome, promptly ran away never to be seen or heard from again until he had a book coming out.
Pretty soon after this it was announced that 17.4 million votes was the will of the people and 16.1 million was we won you lost shut up and get over it two world wars and one world cup doo dah queen mum gawd rest her soul. The word "undemocratic" was redefined to mean "anyone who disagrees with us" and billions of new dictionaries had to be printed.
Three years passed, where the government got busy negotiating brexit by having repeated court cases to try and bypass parliament and generally power grab, in between having elections to attempt to pass the poisoned chalice onto someone else.
At a quarter to midnight on the night before her homework was due in, Theresa May agreed a deal with the EU27, arguably a better deal than anyone had hoped possible. She then took it back to parliament who said "don't like it." Three times. Largely because her deal was broadly what we have currently, only giving up our seat at the table, which is clearly pointless whichever side of the argument you support. Quite why she didn't get parliamentary agreement before jumping on a plane, no-one is quite sure. But anyway.
After being democratically voted in by a hundred thousand mostly old angry white men who'd paid for the privilege of doing so (a third of whom had recently been drafted in by a Leave.EU campaign to rig the vote), Boris Johnson then swept in with bold claims about adding an extra 20,000 police officers to the streets (neatly side-stepping the fact that Tory cuts had already cost us 21,000 officers so we'll still be at a net deficit) and some other fictional bollocks about hospitals or bridges or trains or something. He promised to "get brexit done" in his lunch hour despite the entire cabinet having been paralysed for the last three years, agreed a deal with the EU27 which is basically May's deal only with all those pesky things no-one wants - like workers' rights - crossed out, and had that rejected by parliament too because to some it was demonstrably worse than the one they'd already said no to and to the headbangers it still wasn't brexity enough to make them all multi-billionaires overnight.
Boris promised that he'd rather be dead in a ditch than not leave the EU today. Parliament forced him to ask for a few more weeks, because obviously we can have all this sorted out in a month despite having spunked billions of increasingly valueless pounds up the wall to achieve the square root of **** all for the last three years. Boris did so, with his fingers crossed and a note from his mum saying the big boys made him do it.
So now we get to have this merry dance all over again at the end of January, only Boris has just seemingly called a vote of no confidence in himself so we'll get to have the third general election in almost as many years to achieve who the hell knows what any more, despite leavers shouting repeatedly since 2016 that we can't just keep having votes until we get a result we like (because as any fool knows, once you have a vote the democratic process immediately stops dead which is why the Whigs are still in power).
At the point of me writing this, ditches across the country lie sadly bereft of any lying tub-of-lard philandering cockweasels.
I think that about covers it.
Nailed it
Happy Unbrexit day!!!
What's everyone doing to note this momentous unocassion?
I'm in a conference call.
I’m having a birthday to celebrate. I’m getting some new motorbike thermals for winter, a giant cinnamon whirl instead of a cake, and some new golf clubs although only I know about that. Wife is going away biking with her mates for three days so it’s just me and the boys and we’ll eat what we like and not bother cooking veg and leave the bog seat up all weekend. Now Brexit is over I think I’ve done ok out of it.
I was so looking forward to the pics of a nude Katie Hopkins streaking in public adorned only with strategically placed pics of Nigel.
That hasn't happened and Boris isn't dead in a ditch, so maybe they've sneaked Brexit through on us.
[gagging noise] Is disappoint [/gagging noise]
No rioting or absolute chaos then ?
#we’restillintheEU
Who cares? The sensible thing to do is write something like ‘brexit had already cost 5% of GDP, and will cost 7% of GDP year on year
I’ve already said it once, the general population are economically illiterate. I doubt most people could tell you what GDP stands for, nor how it is calculated. That’s why “Wales” was used as the size of loss to the economy. People sort of know what “Wales” is. I doubt the people of Boston care though - after all they don’t live in Wales 😉
Hard leavers won’t care and use statements like “it’s a cost worth paying” (by someone else). They sadly can’t associate that with things like providing public services. Frankly, I despair. Never wanted a referendum on a subject that was of little interest to the electorate at the time. I do have other options, and am unlikely to be affected, personally, but the economics are truly damming.
BTW manufacturing trade is only a tenth of the economy. Wait till we start arguing about services. Then It will be squeaky bum austerity time.
And little known fact... Ode to Joy was commissioned by Britain as a piece from Beethoven. Great piece, and what foresight on the part of us Brits 😀
No rioting or absolute chaos then ?
Still to come. At the moment I think everyone is in shock that someone sacked twice for lying may just have possibly lied about his ability to do something in order to get the job.
3.5% is 10x the cost of being in
Let’s see your maths..
So who can we have a trade deal with?
Trump says Johnson's Brexit could rule out US trade deal
Oh trump will give us a deal, on condition that Johnson lower standards enough & we allow US pharma to charge NHS US drug prices (currently 4x on average what we pay for same medicine)
Realistically services, tech etc will get priority, so London, & educated remainers will do fine out of it. Manufacturing & agriculture (non- elite leaver jobs, if u will) talks will be, more complex & (politically) painful & take much longer, but without a trade deal they'll slowly wither as part of our economy away anyway.
Johnson's Brexit will end up punishing working leavers far more than remainers
Johnson’s Brexit will end up punishing working leavers far more than remainers
This is exactly why it's been sold to working class people as an opportunity for them. Notice how the language used has changed over the months - no one mentions Sovereignty or taking back control anymore. The language around immigration has become much less subtle it's inferred without being specifically promised that jobs might be easier to come by for working class Leave voters, who either do not understand or do not believe that their rights are to be legislated away.
I've been saying this for months, but the aim of Project Brexit has clearly been to deregulate, stockpile the world's tat and export it to the EU via leaky borders. Think of it as a large, poorly regulated Amazon warehouse with low pay, long working hours and few consumer and environmental protections.
However, the EU aren't playing ball - this is why Johnson is moving towards a much harder Brexit than anything envisaged back in 2016. Plan B involves some sort of anglosphere trade bloc that's heavily deregulated, the hints dropped by prominent Brexit politicians are not so subtle.
Oh trump will give us a deal, on condition that Johnson lower standards enough & we allow US pharma to charge NHS US drug prices (currently 4x on average what we pay for same medicine)
Or we just don't buy the drugs at all as NICE deem them nonviable at the increased cost meaning the people who need them will no longer get them. That is the piece that needs to be publicised in campaign although "Not for sale" is admittedly a bit catchier!