[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

Glad to see you agree. What do you think the chances are of everybody agreeing to do something which is in all of their interests?

I think it is dangerous to depend upon assumptions.

The assumption being that a vote against the deal agreed will lead to WTO?

No, but I think you know that

The rebels are deeply untrsutworthy.

Well, they are Tories after all..

[quote=mefty ]No, but I think you know that

Oh, that's a relief - you disagree with jamba and THM then?

[quote=jambalaya ]if Grieve, Labour etc vote down the deal we will get WTO

[quote=teamhurtmore ]More realistically- no deal = WTO not the status quo

looking forwards

Always.

What I see is a party stricken with division trying to lead the country down a path with little or idea on how to achieve their aims.

On top of that trying to do their best to ensure that it all happens behind closed doors.

All this time a section of the populace is being spoon fed lies of treason & enemies f democracy.

To cap it all you brazenly mock anyone who tcan see the truth of what is being attempted.

I've said this before & I'll say it again: you & your ilk would be resisting like mad if it weren't your own mob at the wheel.

Your hypocrisy is staggering.

The underlying reason most brexies don't want a second referendum is for one reason only.

After the utter mess even the start of the Brexit process has been and a lot of truths coming out about what Brexit really DOES mean a lot of people are likey to change their vote. Simple as that.

If Brexit is still the shining star for this country a second referendum should be a massive reaffirmation of the first ref, yes?

Some how I doubt it though.

Oh, that's a relief - you disagree with jamba and THM then?

No, but most would understand that.

Well now I'm really confused - so you agree with jamba and THM and assume that a vote against the deal will lead to WTO?

The rebels are deeply untrsutworthy.

In general very few people are doing well on the trustworthy scale, politicians or STW posters, but the leave campaign are amongst the worst offender

As for you Turkey, the EZ "errors", Immigration etc its hard to think of a poster on here who has been seem as less trustworthy than you hence the hashtag for your claims. Glass houses dude glass houses

I'm sure you will get there.

[quote=mefty ]I'm sure you will get there.

Oh, I get it, it's Schrodinger's assumption, you both agree and disagree with jamba and THM depending on what point you're trying to make. But to help me out, just for the duration of your post, what is your assumption of what will happen if the deal is voted down?

😆

Mefty, you've either not been paying attention or you are deliberately trying to mislead. The UK supreme court was not asked to rule on whether A50 could be revoked or not. All educated commentary argued that it is, though I admit it is not crystal clear. However it is practically impossible that the EU would attempt to eject the UK against its will.

Fully aware, disagree fundamentally with your view on consensus, commentary by Supreme Court judges is to be taken seriously even if not part of the ratio decidendi.

Are you suggesting there is no possible mechanism which could be found for the UK to stay in the EU?

Mefty - had another look at your OCED data. The discontinuity seems to be just in the 20-24 data. It’s not reflected in the 15-19 data, it is in the 25-29 data but to a far lesser degree than if it carried through (ie it’s only in the 20-24 data) and it’s not in the Eurostat data. It’s also mainly in the male data - though that could be real.

Looks like dicky OECD data in the 20-24 range.

It happens.

Can you think of any non-anecdotal reason why only 20-24 year olds would be affected?

Jamba - you said

That’s the reason the vast majority of people in the UK don’t want a second referendum.

Now while I personally don’t want a second referendum, that statement is bollocks. As you well know.

42:33 and falling is not the vast majority.
[url= https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-there-should-be-a-second-referendum-to-accept-or-reject-the-terms-of-britains-exit-from-the-eu-once-they-have-been-agreed/ ]Click here[/url]

You’ll be claiming 51.9:48.1 is an overwhelming majority next.

The real problem with s second referendum is how would you agree a question?

Its odd the number of times he needs to be asked to just state his view- you really should be a politician

Its pointless debate of hypotheticals

Like our pledge to the EU to pay none of it is a deal till all of it is a deal.

Its still most likely we leave, but not inevitable, and it obvious we can stop this process if we want and the EU cannot make us leave if we choose not to.

Are you suggesting there is no possible mechanism which could be found for the UK to stay in the EU?

No, you will get there if you try harder.

[quote=Junkyard ]the EU cannot make us leave if we choose not to.

cite 😉

My understanding is that we would have to get agreement from the EU if we chose not to leave - otherwise the strict implementation of A50 comes into play and we officially leave in March 2019. We can't unilaterally retract A50.

It's just that I can't see any situation in which the EU wouldn't agree to a request to retract A50.

aracer - someone’s enjoying being a bit of an idiot tonight. Let him.
I think you’re not a million miles from reality.

[quote=mefty ]No, you will get there if you try harder.

anybody here have experience of nailing down a jelly?

@igm - I'm enjoying watching him squirm

Can you think of any non-anecdotal reason why only 20-24 year olds would be affected?

That's when people have come out of training, if you look at papers on the subject France appears to take a fair bit longer than the UK to transition youth into the workforce. Do the Eurostat figures have the same splits?

apparently you need to try harder 🙄
Now stop picking on him by asking him what he thinks and expecting him to tell you ....what sort of debate will that lead to ?

I think THM may have two users

[quote=Junkyard ]apparently you need to try harder

Is that somehow different to persistence?

That's when people have come out of training

So your argument is that school leavers go straight into work while graduates take a few years?

Not buying that one. Very poor.

The split in Eurostat is 15-24 as I recall. You can mirror that in OCED and you get a different answer.

Still looks like an anomaly in the OCED data, both in time series and in age split.

There will be a reason but it will be deep in the methodology and a reminder as to why data has to be treated with caution until you can show provenance and corroboration. As any scientist would know. (Engineer here honest).

My understanding is that we would have to get agreement from the EU if we chose not to leave - otherwise the strict implementation of A50 comes into play and we officially leave in March 2019. We can't unilaterally retract A50.

Well done

It's just that I can't see any situation in which the EU wouldn't agree to a request to retract A50.

Plenty of Federalists are quite happy to see us leave.

Has anyone else done an idiot troll scale / ranking for the posters on here?

Clearly I would never post such a thing.

So your argument is that school leavers go straight into work while graduates take a few years?

No short term technical training very common in France, which begins immediately after school, if you look at the tertiary education figures this is much higher in France than anywhere but Spain.

You still need to explain the time series discontinuity in that one age group and the disagreement with the Eurostat data.

(PS previously you told me tertiary education was about the same in France and the UK - I didn’t check, but given your last statement on tertiary education, you weren’t lying were you?)

Just to prevent stealth edits.

No short term technical training very common in France, which begins immediately after school, if you look at the tertiary education figures this is much higher in France than anywhere but Spain.

previously you told me tertiary education was about the same in France and the UK

It isas percentage of overall population, which are the numbers I did on a back of an envelpe, we have far more doing degrees but less doing technical so the two more or less net out.

[quote=mefty ]Plenty of Federalists are quite happy to see us leave.

Interesting assumption

for the love of god dont ask him to prove it 😉

mefty - Member

previously you told me tertiary education was about the same in France and the UK

It isas percentage of overall population, which are the numbers I did on a back of an envelpe, we have far more doing degrees but less doing technical so the two more or less net out.

Lovely theory. The problem is your nested theories have to all be true for you to be correct, but don’t tie up with the numbers. And while you use one part of your theory to try and explain discrepancies in one way, that introduces discrepancies which you try to explain using another theory that doesn't tie up with the first.

You still can’t offer a salient, men only event that would explain why men aged 20-24 in 2015 and 2016 on the OECD data seems out of kilter with the rest of the OECD data for other years or men or women and also with the Eurostat data.

You are hanging the your entire theory on two data points out of dozens. And more worryingly they are the last two data points in a series - might be a trend starting, might just be a couple of odd years, might be dicky data.

Ultimately the French and UK positions are similar and have swapped around a bit over the last 10 years.

‘A’ for effort though.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42375059

EU leaders have agreed Brexit talks can move on, with the UK staying in the customs union, single market and under the European Court of Justice's jurisdiction during the transition.

Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg said that would be unacceptable.

But Tory remainer Ken Clarke said the UK must not "go off a cliff edge".

Like the rest of the country then.

Not sure the views of of Rees Mogg as a religious fundamentalist/Victorian mill owner/anti women's rights supporter should be kept happy by TM? As a human being I find him unacceptable. Ken Clarke on the other hand is driven by common sense.

Not sure the views of of Rees Mogg as a religious fundamentalist/Victorian mill owner/anti women's rights supporter should be kept happy by TM? As a human being I find him unacceptable.

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Neither do I but he has a vote and a bunch of other MPs who seem to agree with him - remember it's how we ended up in this mess.

The people who decided Rees Mogg is fit to hold office worry me more than Rees Mogg.

And I agree Mogg Jenkins redwood Johnson gove and whole load of backbench closet racists yearning for the 1950s who have no desire to integrate/work with the world at large (unless it turns a profit) Has anyone noticed how this group of people only ever talk about trade (money) and nothing else.

Oh and while I am on a rant the question time Barnsley bloke who was much lauded by the press as a loyal working class Tory was talking out of his arse, as I have said before I want this Brexit to be as miserable as possible due to the fact that a awful lot of "working class" people need to ****ing wake up!,

Put your trust in Rees Mogg poor people he has a job at "Mill" waiting for you and your children.

The "mill" will be a call centre where they call up Indians and try and get them to switch their electricity supplier.

Put your trust in Rees Mogg poor people he has a job at "Mill" waiting for you and your children.

They love him reading the comments on the express website.. 😥

I couldn't think of anyone worse for the 'working class' to back, but they seem blind to his wider philosophy because he's a brexiter...

I saw this come up. Speaks for itself really.

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Ok let's have a Swiss type deal. But would Mogg thinks that's out of Europe enough?