[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

We did the French youth unemployment stuff previously - possibly during your sabbatical. It’s a great fact Jamba but not a meaningful one. Good only for people who enjoy abusing statistics.

We did the French youth unemployment stuff previously

You keep saying this but when looked at as a percentage of the whole, UK tertiary education were much the same as everywhere else so your theory doesn't appear to hold water.

That’s because you neglected the age issue.

Keep up.

And if your premise is correct the two measures should be the same. They’re not.

Maybe produce some numbers - don't think age issue is particularly significant when you look at nature of tertiary education.

The total length of time in primary, secondary and tertiary is.

Also you saw the numbers on unemployment as a proportion of total population in the age group (if you followed the links at the time) and the same ratio but excluding those in education.
The first ratio gave very similar numbers in the UK and in France while the second didn’t.
Now while I admit I am going from that to the assumption that numbers in education is difference - but that’s a pretty reasonable step.
You say that I must be wrong because tertiary numbers are similar.
Unfortunately your premise falls down partly because it doesn’t explain the difference in the measures, but also because it looks at numbers in tertiary education, not when the average individual leaves education, which is affected by whether they went to tertiary education but also when they finished secondary education and how long they spend in tertiary.
So I have a theory which meets the known facts and my own experience and you have one that doesn’t.

Discuss.

It should be noted at this point that arguing with an engineer about definite data is like wrestling a pig in shit, after a period of time you come to realise that the pig enjoys it.

Rumbled

Clear messages from EU today

1. We are backing TM

2. Don’t think that we will negotiate another deal if you don’t like this one

So the silly folk know what’s what now. Time to stop screwing around with their stupid games

Equally they’ve also said it’s ok to call it off.

Equally they’ve also said it’s ok to call it off.

It is getting messy, parlement can technically throw out a no deal or a bad deal scenario, but would we then be relient on a unanimous agreement from the eu27 to revoke a 50?

article 50

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

It's ambiguous as we are only at stage 2, 'notification of intention'.

The withdrawal agreement mentioned in stage 3 has not been agreed yet.

So I'd read that as notification of intent is not legally bound to leave before withdrawal agreement has been ratified.

Intent is not a promise, a bit like 'let's give the NHS 350 million.' is not technically a promise.

Are you talking about Kelly’s comments?

If so, interesting to see who thinks they has as much to lose (if note more)

Messy?!??

It’s clearer.

We are leaving. Silly games will not lead to a second vote on membership. Time to focus on the job at hand (finally)

It’s clearer

For the hard of thinking maybe, have you read article 50?

Most informed opinion agrees that we can unilaterally revoke A50 which remains the most likely outcome IMO.

I said weeks ago that the Hard Brexit option was long gone and the vote yesterday proved that, TM is probably very relieved that the final " deal" will not sit with her.

The Tories are a spent force - Boris, Mogg, DD, Fox, Redwood have painted them selves into a corner and the likes of Bernard Jenkins simply become more confused as the days go by. They are all grey old women/men with an electorate dying out faster than they can recruit - in fact they are "Brexshit" in the form of a political party.

It matters not what type of deal they get, it will p*** off all sides and they will be on the receiving end of a "protest" vote - Labour will win and borrow shed loads of cash to keep poor people breathing and kick the implications into the long grass.

There is no question that the working poor will suffer (they already are i mean have you seen the price of Diesel and butter) and they will suffer for a long time. I have made this point before but its worth remembering since the late 1970s we have dad more than 15 years of recession in total,add another 10 then half my working life has been in recession/crap. You can not build an economy if half the time its going backwards.

I know we are not in a recession currently but we have been wrestling with this situation since 2008 if it takes till 2028 to sort this then that is a long time to be running to standstill.

For the hard of thinking maybe, have you read article 50?

Hmmmm, let me think.

Clear messages from EU today

1. We are backing TM

2. Don’t think that we will negotiate another deal if you don’t like this one

So the silly folk know what’s what now. Time to stop screwing around with their stupid games

1: We are backing TM because **** knows who you bastards will put in as PM if she goes down, but chances are she will be a lot less agreeable to negotiate with.

2: We haven't got time to mess around with Boris.

Some weird bloke with a beard??

Has BoJo grown a beard now?

i think he has just started being as rude about English leaders as he is about Scottish ones.

@oldman “hard Brexit” is what happens in April 2019 if Parliament votes down the deal. We are definitively leaving whether we have a transition & future trade agreement or even a withdrawl agreement itself - that’s the ultimate mess, we leave without a withdrawl agreement after it’s voted down.

TMH glad to see the EU saying there will be no renegotiation in the event of UK Parliament rejecting the deal, they should be clear the same applies to their vote in Oct 2018. Of course they are backing May as the alternative of a Brexiteer Tory is much worse for them

@igm you are barking up the wrong tree. French youth unemployment is appalling, labour laws mean its hard to fire people and employers are VERY reluctant to hire the young with no/limited experience who they can’t fire if they are not suitable. Also employer taxes are so high they are a real barrier to hiring. Add on top Hollane’s total incompetence in responding to the financial crises and there you have it.

3) We are leaving the door open for some common sense and grown ups to enter the room (well at least some upper sixth formers) and making sure the UK has an out.

For all the talk if impending doom if the [i]Will of the PEOPLE[/i] is ignored how does it compare with the impact of Brexit? you know, just asking

molgrips despite all France’s taxes Govt asked that all non emergency surgery was postponed last winter, sound familiar

We're not talking about France are we?

Stop whatabouting when you have lost a point. Can't imagine what it's like playing tennis with you 😉

BTW those pro EU youtube ads I memtioned earlier come direct from the European Parliament. Despite me voting them down they keep appearing. Propoganda pure and simple.

@mols You can’t pass comment on the NHS in isolation, you need to look at the bigger picture,

Yes but are they truthful? We keep voting down the BS but it keeps coming back to the top

@mols You can’t pass comment on the NHS in isolation, you need to look at the bigger picture,

Oh I fully disagree!

That's what schoolkids say when they're caught doing something wrong. "But sir, he did it too!" Doesn't matter, does it?

Just because lots of systems are failing, doesn't mean it's ok to fail. If we followed that principle, nothing would get any better. We could all just wallow in mediocrity. Do you do that at work? If your pension funds performed averagely would you just shrug your shoulders and go 'well they're doing badly too, so who cares?' No - you strive to perform as well as you can all the time. Why can't our government do that?

I'll let you answer that - I think I know why.

jambalaya - Member
@oldman “hard Brexit” is what happens in April 2019 if Parliament votes down the deal.

You've conviniently omitted that there's a strong legal argument that nothing changes if the UK Parliament rejects any given deal.

The sovereign Parliament that brexiters keep flapping about, the same one that was never not a sovereign parliament.

In the event of no agreement being signed by the relevant parties..

See paragraph 3 of article 50.

Notice of intention, paragraph 2, is simply notice of intent. It's not an agreement or a legally binding commitment.

Jamba - I’ve heard those anecdotal stories before and if you look at the unemployment rate it’s borne out - but the rate fails to include for those in education so it’s a bad measure for this age group. The unemployment ratio on the other hand does account for those in education and on that the UK and France were similar in 2015 & 2016. France was better than the U.K. in 2014.

Here’s the stats. Feel free to do your usual “the stats are wrong because I met someone once who had a different experience” routine.

jambalaya - Member
BTW those pro EU youtube ads I memtioned earlier come direct from the European Parliament. Despite me voting them down they keep appearing. Propoganda pure and simple.

It’s the Russians making sure you vote In at the next referendum.

Propoganda pure and simple.

[img] ?w=300&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=3b501088a42faf336e34c9ce3bcbcf7f[/img]

Blinkered & one-sided. Some things never change..... 🙄

Notice of intention, paragraph 2, is simply notice of intent. It's not an agreement or a legally binding commitment.

We are definitively leaving

On a more serious note, they’re at it again.

The Tory MP who led rebels to defeat the Government on flagship Brexit legislation has been forced to report death threats to police.
Prominent backbencher Dominic Grieve penned the amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill, opposed by the Government, which was passed by the House of Commons on Wednesday night.
His successful demand for Parliament to have a "meaningful vote" on any EU divorce deal represents the first defeat for ministers on Brexit legislation.
Both he and the ten other Tory MPs who supported him have faced a furious backlash in the wake of the vote, causing Mr Grieve to express his worries about the nature of the response.
The former attorney general told The Guardian: "The thing that continues to cause me concern is not that people will disagree vigorously with the positions we take.
But that the atmosphere is so febrile that it leads firstly to people not listening to what the debate is about, secondly suggests that any questions around Brexit amount to an intention to sabotage and, thirdly, results in some people expressing themselves in terms that at times include death threats.

It's going to be the new Christmas hit

Were leaving we are leaving we are leaving
Stick your fingers in your ears we are leaving
Jeremy Corbyn

Repeat as often as needed.

I'm not a conservative but Grieve played an absolute blinder yesterday. Whatever your view of democracy, the primacy of parliament not the executive is paramount. I am sure he and Starmer have had some very interesting discussions.

I can't believe that more people didn't follow his lead, or that it came down to some last minute half-arsed grubby offers before the vote.

Taking back control. Just to give it to some ministers. Er no thank you.

The whole point of parliament is to keep a renegade government in check.

It's currently doing its job, just about.

The irony of all this is that the frothing brexiters are calling the very body designed to prevent totalitarianism, enemies of the people... 🙄

I'm not a conservative but Grieve played an absolute blinder yesterda

An MP with a spine & a Tory to boot???

The unthinkable has happened......

I'm in shock!

But yes, DG has gone up in my estimation.

Has this dropped off the front page? 8)

Those death threats are appealing but I can see it getting worse.

People seem so divided and angry in their opinions (anyone see Question Time?), and there's simply no way of making everyone happy. A good proportion of the Brexiteers just seem to want to leave with no deal or anything. Leaving with and getting deal with the EU would be in their minds, not "respecting the will of the people", just as canceling Brexit would.

The irony of all this is that the frothing brexiters are calling the very body designed to prevent totalitarianism, enemies of the people...

I don't think they do irony.

The language being used by the Brexiteers and their attack dogs in the press has developed a horribly Mccarthyite edge. Yvette Cooper had it about right when she mockingly referred to one of the fruit loops (Bill Cash?) for propagating a new Stalinism

it does seem to be having the effect of galvanising the rebels/traitors/Enemies of the People rather than intimidating them though

Fractures have begun to emerge within UK and EU supply chains ahead of the trade hurdles to be caused by Brexit.

The findings were uncovered in a survey conducted by CIPS drawing on insight from over 1,100 UK and European supply chain managers.

Fears of loss
Surprisingly, almost one in 10 of the responding supply chain managers admit their business has lost contracts due to Brexit. Furthermore, 14% fear parts of their operations will not be viable any longer.

In the space of 6 months, the level of EU businesses that expect to move some of their supply chain out of the UK due to Brexit jumped up by 19% to 63% of the practitioners surveyed

https://www.pharmalogisticsiq.com/news/breaks-in-supply-chains-surface-ahead-of-brexit-0

Blinkered & one-sided. Some things never change....

Open minded and carefully considered all sides, some things will never change

Farage had nothing to do with Vote Leave just in case you forgot. He was instrumental raising issues others tried to ignore and in getting a Referendum thus making him the most succesful and influential British politician of the last 50 years

Farage had nothing to do with Vote Leave

Maybe, but he had plenty to do with the leave vote.

Grieve etc are downright liers, the amendment is absolutely designed to frustrate and complicate the Brexit process in particular with the deliberately vague word “meaningful”. When the Labour Party are serenading you with The Red Flag as you go to vote you should know you are doing the wrong thing.

QT from Barnsley last night

https://twitter.com/_/status/941451380639911936

The good news is the EU have said no renegotaition, the bad news is if Grieve, Labour etc vote down the deal we will get WTO with just a few short months to prepare, perhaps less.