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The best chance of succeeding is to back Corbyn.
Keep pushing that message. On loop.
he best chance of succeeding is to back Corbyn.
I'd say the only chance is to back Corbyn. If Corbyn is forced to step aside, they lose a huge chunk of the labour party and have the opposite problem. Parliamentary convention and precedent is with Corbyn's plan, time is with Corbyn's plan, and common sense is with Corbyn's plan. If MPs refuse to back it, Johnson wins. It's that simple really.
Corbyn would not have to step aside as leader of the labour party to have a different person as PM. He would still be able to go into the next election as the labour candidate.
I agree with TJ.
The best chance of succeeding is to back Corbyn.
Jo Swinson
As I said before the start of the summer Recess, the Liberal Democrats will support a motion of no confidence in the government if it is brought before the House of Commons
Based on on-the-record statements that have already been made, at least seven MPs on the opposition benches have indicated they would not give you confidence in these circumstances. Regardless of how my party were to vote in those circumstances, in order for you to command the confidence of the House, at least eight Conservative MPs would need to support you in taking office. For this and other reasons, I do not believe your plan is viable.
I would be happy and keen to meet in the coming days to discuss how our parties can work together to stop “No Deal” and who else might be able to lead an emergency government.
Whos playing games now?
I’d say the only chance is to back Corbyn.
Keep pushing. On loop. Or take a step back, have a think, and stop parroting that line. Try going just a tiny bit off message. You might feel just that little bit more free.
This surprises me… I assumed one would have to be PM, and the other deputy… but no…
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1162054872008708096?s=21
No idea how much legs this idea has in reality… but it’s an option I think would get a lot of support in the country at large, not just with MPs.
Keep pushing that message. On loop.
We both know it's true, for the reasons Dazh outlined. We're told that the Lib Dems will try to stop Brexit at all costs, yet they've fallen at the first hurdle. It seems that a few weeks of Corbyn as caretaker PM is less palatable to Swinson than 5 years of propping up Cameron.
The choice is simple: Corbyn's plan, or no deal Brexit.
The best chance of succeeding is to back Corbyn.
If youre going to keep saying this youre going to have to show us how he's going to get the Tory remainers to vote for it
Keep pushing. On loop. Or take a step back, have a think, and stop parroting that line. Try going just a tiny bit off message. You might feel just that little bit more free.
I'm looking forward to your alternative proposal that can be delivered in time and command more votes. Off you pop.
If youre going to keep saying this youre going to have to show us how he’s going to get the Tory remainers to vote for it
And 7 of his own..
Based on on-the-record statements that have already been made, at least seven MPs on the opposition benches have indicated they would not give you confidence in these circumstances.
He doesnt have the numbers.
If youre going to keep saying this youre going to have to show us how he’s going to get the Tory remainers to vote for it
I've no idea if ultimately they will or won't. But it's the only show in town, so ultimately they will have to decide on their priorities.
theres a very good reason for an alternative- they might actually have a chance of succeeding
The best chance of succeeding is to back Corbyn.
For all his faults real and/or imagined I would trust Corbyn to do what he says. I agree with the sentiment - if avoiding no deal is paramount then all MPs should be willing to go along with Corbyn as interim leader. I am not convinced that any other MP could actually unite greater numbers anyway. I’d be happy with John McDonnell, but no doubt there would be a good number unhappy with him.
Essentially, this thread amongst other things has (almost) convinced me that we will leave with no deal. Time to start preparing as best we can. Any tips?
Essentially, this thread amongst other things has (almost) convinced me that we will leave with no deal. Time to start preparing as best we can. Any tips?
Yeah no deal is the most likely outcome
The chances of pulling off an interim government after a VONC are pretty small
I actually agree with TJ that Corbyn ultimately would let someone else be the boss to make it happen, but it seems that his fans steadfastly refuse to accept anyone else and he simply doesnt have the numbers, unless gauke, or grieve etc say they'll change their minds
I actually agree with TJ that Corbyn ultimately would let someone else be the boss to make it happen, but it seems that his fans steadfastly refuse to accept anyone else and he simply doesnt have the numbers, unless gauke, or grieve etc say they’ll change their minds
I think you've fundamentally misunderstood the problem. I support Corbyn's proposal not because I think it has a fantastic chance, but because nothing else has any chance.
but because nothing else has any chance.
why do you think that?
why for example wouldnt the harman/clarke idea work?
Didn’t John McDonnel say last week that if Labour got in power they’d put the Tories on trial? Presumably with a view to sending them to the salt mines?
That should have the Tory defectors queuing up to vote to make grandad PM 😂
Sorry guys - its not the only deal in town unless corbyn wants to commit electoral suicide. What Corbyns offer is is the starting point for negotiations. What the outcome of those discussions is is not yet known
However Swinsons actions and words have made any deal to get out of this mess less likely.
From the statements made by Tory remainers already, he hasn’t got a cat in hells chance of getting the support he needs.
Let’s be honest, with someone as divisive as grandad, it’s like asking a load of Celtic season ticket holders to cheer on Rangers.
I can’t see why the Labour Party wouldn’t get behind the idea of Ken Clarke and Harriet Harman as a compromise, when both of them have already said they’re up for it, and it looks like it’s a goer?
Unless this is all just posturing?
Surely not?
I think the “Labour Party” could get behind it. You know who would not though…
Anyway, the obvious middle ground is to dump both ideas… (although I’d be very happy with either myself) …no installing any party leader as PM …no installing a pair of outgoing “safe hands” MPs …and instead find a suitable single Labour MP to perform the task. One who has been loyal to the party leadership, can be business like with the EU, and doesn’t have a history that scares off MPs from other parties that they need support from.
Starmer would be ideal.
If youre going to keep saying this youre going to have to show us how he’s going to get the Tory remainers to vote for it
Tort remainers, like the Lib-Dems and others, will have a simple choice, back the only realistic and certain plan on the table, or put their faith in Johnson or something else as yet undefined to avoid a no deal. Certainty or a gamble. It’s up to them. Corbyn’s plan will work if it has the support. Only the Tories and Lib Dem’s can defeat it.
Well.... not really. Kate Hoey and the rest of the Labour leavers (who, lest we forget, until recently included grandad himself)!won’t support it either
It was dead on arrival with the insistence of Steptoe as PM
But then they knew that...
Let’s make it look like we’re doing something...
You write a letter, I’ll do a tweet
Courgette?
Kate Hoey isn’t a labour MP.
Kate Hoey isn’t a labour MP.
Whatever you say Dazh.
Or do you mean that she shouldn’t be a Labour MP?
Has she resigned the whip? NOt that I am aware of.
Sigh... Corbyn doesn't have the numbers.. it's not difficult maths.
Not enough tories will vote against thier own, and several Labour MPs won't support him either.
Corbyn needs to agree to field a more moderate candidate than himself. Whether his ego will allow that remains to be seen.
Whoever it is will only be in office a few months.
Erm... Kate Hoey most certainly is a Labour MP
She’s standing down before the next election, But as it stands she is still a Labour MP. One of the lifelong rabidly anti-EU ones like a certain right honourable J Corbyn
Sigh… Corbyn doesn’t have the numbers.. it’s not difficult maths.
Nobody ‘has’ the numbers.
Nobody ‘has’ the numbers.
The nuance here is corbyn doesn't have the numbers. That's basically fact.
A more moderate strictly temporary MP could pull it off.
If he threw the tory leavers a bone, Ken Clark for example, I could see some tory MPs crossing the floor.
Don’t really care whether she calls herself a labour MP or holds the whip, she’s not a labour MP and never has been. It doesn’t change the reality that those who oppose brexit should support Corbyn’s plan. It’s the only feasible option to avoid no deal.
You're like a stuck record, like ransos.
It won't work, not enough tories will go for it and a few Labour ones won't either. It's a non starter if Jez insists on being the interim PM.
Jezza needs to wake up and agree to field a more moderate candidate if his intentions are really to prevent no deal.
You’re like a stuck record, like ransos.
Still waiting for the alternative proposal that will work.
Jezza needs to wake up and agree to field a more moderate candidate if his intentions are really to prevent no deal.
No, his opponents need to get over themselves.
A stalemate within a stalemate.
Still waiting for the alternative proposal that will work.
Corbyn needs to agree a compromise and agree to a more paletable interim head of government with the LDs, with SNP with the greens, greens and plaid.
Either a moderate tory or a Labour remainer is the only real option.
We'll see his true colours based on whether he's prepared to compromise.
If he insists on being in charge the whole thing is a waste of time, as he's got no chance of passing a VONC without cross party support.
If he insists on being in charge the whole thing is a waste of time, as he’s got no chance of passing a VONC without cross party support.
Not so- the two issues are separate.
You’re after an alternate proposal that will work?
Grandad calls for a VONC proposing a less divisive candidate than himself for temporary caretaker PM, who could attract enough cross-party support to make the VONC worth doing and winnable, and not just a pointless window dressing exercise.
There... that wasn’t difficult, was it comrade?
I’m surprised nobody had mentioned it already
Oh...
What is needed is open discussions between all interested groups. We know there is a huge majority for remain in the HOC. History will judge them poorly if the let party or career over country.
VONC and who is next leader are different issues
FFS the VONC won't pass unless there's some sort of assurance around who the interim leader might be.
Jezza is currently saying it's jezza, so it's not going to work.
Hopefully the cross party talks will change that, otherwise jezza will go down in history as the man who's refusal to compromise enabled no deal.
Sorry to paraphrase Binners, but I suspect he's still holding onto his red unicorns, comrades!
VONC and who is the new leader are different issues
I doubt very much that Jeremy, Seamas and Len see them as separate issues.
I certainly see no sign, given their track record, that they will act like they are
Party before country, just like the Tory’s
Or in the same way, Party within a Party before country.
Let’s narrow it down even further
Try hard and you could get it down to 160,000
There's some time to go before anyone gets to vote on anything, isn't there? So there are many games still left to play.
Grandad calls for a VONC proposing a less divisive candidate than himself for temporary caretaker PM, who could attract enough cross-party support to make the VONC worth doing and winnable, and not just a pointless window dressing exercise.
Who is this person and how many votes will they get? This will require you to engage brain rather than mouth, so may well be beyond you.
I could give you a really long list, but ‘anyone but Corbyn’ would cover most of them, comrade.
Are the carbon monoxide levels getting a bit high in there? Maybe you should consider getting out for some fresh air?
As I suspected, brain rather than mouth seems to be a bit tricky.
im not sure why there is so much focus on the lib dems, there are more independent candidates than lib dems, fifteen v fourteen, there are more labour MPs, twenty odd, that have consistently voted for Brexit rather than party. Given that we don't know what the independents will do, split them fifty fifty, so assuming all snp, plaid, green, libs vote no confidence, to win labour need twenty eight tories to vote down the govt. that's a big ask. There needs to be a concrete plan they find acceptable for that to happen.
Of course if JC was leading labour well, they would support him and they would need around eight defectors
Doesn't matter who is leading labour - around 20 of them are committed brexiteers and another 50 ish scared of racists in their constituencies not voting for them so support brexit agnst their own principles
Spineless and deluded the lot of them
History will judge all poorly those who allow this madness to go ahead
there is a huge remain majority in the HOC. time to grow some backbone
Bloody hell… I’m agreeing with TJ, again.
It’s almost like no names have already been suggested. Fred West? The remaining Chuckle Brother? Silvio Berlesconi, Chris Eubank in a youth hostel?
Maybe the one we’ve missed to lead the country out of this darkest of times should be a question?
What would Richard Branson look like if he’d been smoking spice for 6 months, and started having paranoid delusions about German federalism?
Maybe that’s what the next prime minister needs to be?
Makes you think....
Sweet baby jesus and the orphans! I actually agree with a statement that TJ has made! 😳
Has someone changed your medication uncle Jezza? 😉
So no-deal must be stopped at all costs except JC being a temporary PM to ask for an extension and announce a GE?
Are they worried JC will nationalise everything before the GE? What are they worried about? If the votes are not there For JC then surely they are not there for anyone.
What are they worried about?
Good question. When it comes down to it they fear Corbyn more than no deal. And they have the cheek to claim the remain high ground. A no deal brexit delivered by the very people who have spent the last 3 years preaching about how bad it will be. Hypocrites the lot of them.
When it comes down to it they fear Corbyn more than no deal.
Yes, there are Tories that fear putting power into Corbyn’s hands more than they fear a No Deal Brexit. They’re nuts, of course, but they are needed to get this over the line… waving hands in the air and wailing “why won’t these people, who I don’t politically align with normally, do what I see as sensible” won’t get us anywhere. Just pick someone that enough people can back putting in place for just long enough to talk to the EU to win time for the political process to play out with election(s) and/or a referendum. Why on earth does it have to be Corbyn? He should be concentrating on winning that election about to hit us (and making that new promise of a referendum with a Remain option his means of pulling votes away from the other parties… that news hasn’t hit 90% of the population yet). Starmer would do just fine, if Clarke&Harman aren’t acceptable to the Labour team.
Why does it have to be Corbyn? Because he is leader of the largest group in the anti no-deal block and he is the one caliing a VONC.
I don't see how a it being Starmer will make a difference for any Tory. What if JC is standing next to KS? Will that put them off? Does JC need to stand down as leader? It all gets a bit daft if its another Labour bod.
Ken Clarke I can see might work for Tory people- but will he lose votes from the other side?
Labour getting KC to stand in could work politically for them, it would deepen the split in the Tory party.
Isn't this really Peru simple??
Most solutions to get rid of BJ need multiple people to put country media before party. They are despicable, yes, but predictable. They won't.
Corbyn could finally make a huge and real impact now. Handed to him on a plate.
Corbyn is in an incredible position. Just changing his own stance on being caretaker PM will change anything. Everything.
He could wake up today and tweet that he is willing to let someone else become temporary PM. No need to convince others, just himself. Truly country before party stuff.
I want to like Corbyn, there is much he says I agree with but I won't forget his half arsed support of Remain but I could be made to forgive it.
I doubly won't forget that he has a second chance here. A little short term inconvenience that might well be taken up by much of the populous as a final vindication that we actually have a politician capable of putting country first.
Instead. No. His way or No Deal. Just like the rest of them.
What are they worried about?
That Corbyn as PM will be seen as a reasonable man with democratic socialist principles that the public at large will like - thats what they are scared of. Spend years demonising someone and some of the mud has stuck, but as PM he would have to get a fairer press and be much more able to make his own positions known so all the lies about him would be seen for what they are. Thats what they are scared of.
That Corbyn as PM will be seen as a reasonable man with democratic socialist principles that the public at large will like
Exactly. What has he ever done that was bad, what has he ever voted on that wasn't the right way to go for 99% of his time as MP. He is a crap leader but who cares, it is a temporary government, nothing material will change other than not going ahead with no deal.
I bet Farage is laughing himself silly at the current situation. If the VONC against BoJo is successful and October 31st exit doesn't happen, it wouldn't surprise me if Farage and his rent a racist MP wannabe's mop up at the next General Election. Whatever the outcome, we're doomed.
I don't even think it's that deep tj. A conservative mp who votes for Corbyn is likely to loose there seat in the next election/ face deselection by their local association. They don't want to loose their jobs.
Very much agree with Poopscoop.
But a GE will solve nothing; if I were the EU I'd say extension for a referendum, but not a GE. We've had a GE that's made the parliamentary arithmetic worse. I think it will only get less good with both cons and lab loosing seats to smaller parties. Then what? Probably no deal.
I do believe thats certainly a large part of the motivation from people like Swinson. Ummna will not vote for Corbyn under any circumstances 'cos he is a fud.
It’s almost like no names have already been suggested. Fred West? The remaining Chuckle Brother? Silvio Berlesconi, Chris Eubank in a youth hostel?
Yet no-one has been able to say why these other people are more likely to succeed. It's almost as if they know they won't, but can't admit that Corbyn is right about something.
It's ridiculously simple - they will succeed if they get the numbers. Clarke has said he would be happy to lead a short term govt. Swinson says that she had asked Harman before proposing her. Hopefully someone sensible is canvassing opinion among MPs to find out if one of them would get majority support; and it will be in the news if it appears they will or won't.
All we know for now is that at present Corbyn would not command a majority which means a VONC is not worth holding until either opinion among MPs of Corbyn changes or someone emerges who is palatable to the majority. As previously said, Corbyn himself has not ruled out another caretaker leader; it's just what his henchmen have been saying. However the Labour Party message has been so fractured in recent months I don't give them much credence.
Edit. Useful info graphic in the Grauniad re. The numbers https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/16/who-can-corbyn-convince-to-back-him-as-caretaker-pm
Yet no-one has been able to say why these other people are more likely to succeed.
Because they are not Corbyn.
Dominic Grieve has said no to Corbyn… so you’re safe to assume that he’s not the only possible Conservative rebel that thinks the same way. The MPs who felt they were pushed out of the Labour Party since Corbyn became leader won’t support him either. So, find someone else they can all back (people have made sensible suggestions, but there are many more that would do) that can still take the Labour MPs with them as well.
So, find someone else they can all back (people have made sensible suggestions, but there are many more that would do) that can still take the Labour MPs with them as well.
I don't think such a person exists, and we will waste valuable time trying to find them. That's why I think that it's Corbyn's plan or No Deal.
Tories MP won't back Corbyn, no way.
Tories MP won’t back Corbyn, no way.
Then we leave with no deal then. It’s that simple.
I doubly won’t forget that he has a second chance here. A little short term inconvenience that might well be taken up by much of the populous as a final vindication that we actually have a politician capable of putting country first.
Instead. No. His way or No Deal. Just like the rest of them.
This i agree with
That said, push come to shove, if he's not willing to be the bigger man then it's up to the others to be, and vote for him. And by not doing so they should be held just as responsible for brexit.
Shambles every single one of them..
That’s why I think that it’s Corbyn’s plan or No Deal.
Then we leave with no deal then. It’s that simple.
And by not doing so they should be held just as responsible for brexit.
Hmm… Binners seemingly mad rant about this “offer” from Corbyn being about smearing the blame for the hardest of Brexits around, without stopping it, might not be so mad after all.
Hmm… Binners seemingly mad rant about this “offer” from Corbyn being about smearing the blame for the hardest of Brexits around, without stopping it, might not be so mad after all.
Yep, it's his fault that others won't back his clear pathway to avoiding no deal. The contortions on this thread are mind boggling.
But all other pathways (the ones that might actually work) can be blocked by him? Anyway, hopefully TJ is right and he will move to a compromise position to get others onside. I doubt we’ll find out ‘till his team consider it the final moment though (which on past experience means just after the point where it’s too late).
Then we leave with no deal then. It’s that simple.
and Corbyn Swinson, Hoey, Greive...all of them would have failed. Because none of them will raise themselves above their Party allegiances, and none will compromise. what a bit of a mess
I don’t believe for a minute this was a serious attempt. If it was then Corbyn’s team really are biblically inept.
This isn’t how you try and win backing from people. Particularly not in such a sensitive political arena. It looks like there was no prior consultation with other parties, no back channels opened up to negotiate options or look for suggestions just a letter saying ‘back me as PM’
So it’s either a cynical ploy to spread blame or it’s rank incompetence and political cluelessness
But all other pathways (the ones that might actually work) can be blocked by him?
In the unlikely event that a clear pathway were to emerge, that would command the confidence of sufficient Remain MPs (including Corbyn's supporters), then he should not block it. But I don't see such an event occuring.
It should be remembered that his proposal is a huge risk for him: given a commitment to a GE and Labour's current polling.
might not be so mad after all.
The only thing that’s mad about this whole situation is that remainers have been saying for months/years how bad a no deal brexit will be but now they have a simple and workable plan to stop it they’re not sure because it’s led by Corbyn. It’s pathetic, hypocritical and utterly self-serving. If we do leave with no deal, the remainers in all parties who refused to stop it will deserve everything they get.
The turning point in terms of my support for Corbyn was this
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/23/owen-smith-sacked-from-labour-party-frontbench
they’re not sure because it’s led by Corbyn. It’s pathetic, hypocritical and utterly self-serving.
as is Corbyn's refusal to stand aside for a more palatable candidate. For compromise to work, it needs to come from both sides. This is the totally ridiculous tribal/football nature of the situation. One side cannot score a goal without foul, the other can do no wrong in the eyes of the respective supporters.
Then we leave with no deal then. It’s that simple.
I fear it was always that simple. The circuitous and farcical window-dressing looks complex but at the end of the day this is a game of one half. Management are responsible. Try finding them.
Grandad finally holds out his hand with sweets, the kids complain, "no, no, we don't want them from you, we want someone else to give them to us!"
Sigh.
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson is off to Berlin and Paris this week.
I'm already braced for another week of cringing at his Trump-level skills of diplomacy, as he sets about lecturing our 'European Friends' and insult the intelligence of Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel.
Radio 4's world at one was from various parts of Ireland yesterday
What came across was a now weary resignation that we are looking at No Deal and this will be economically catastrophic on both sides of the border, with huge implications for the peace process
The difference is that the Irish know that they've got th EU lined up four-square behind them to champion their interests, economically and politically.
Northern Ireland knows they have the polar opposite of this. A Westminster Tory government that understands little, if anything, about their history and cares even less for their interests. They were quoting the immediate loss of 40,000+ jobs with the imposition of (30%+) tariffs in the farming and agriculture sector in the north alone, as that sector of the economy collapses overnight.
Unfortunately, it looks like the good Friday agreement is doomed if we carry on down this route, and a return to violence over there is now all but inevitable.
as is Corbyn’s refusal to stand aside for a more palatable candidate
Do you think there is time to agree on a new candidate? If the Tories and Libdems refuse to support Corbyn, why would we assume that labour MPs would support Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman? By the time a new candidate is found and deals are made we’ll be out.
Corbyn has done what is expected of him as leader of the opposition. Some on here have been moaning for ages that he wasn’t doing anything. Now he has they’ve changed their minds?
The onus is not on Corbyn to bend to a few MPs. He’s proposed a plan that will work, it’s their choice to decide on what is more important, Corbyn as PM for a few weeks, or a no deal brexit?