[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

anywhere talks have ended, shock horror.....

As for lib dems, welcome to coalition governments, Labour lost. You don't have to like it but that is the fact. So you try and do what most grown up European countries cope with, or you can carry on with the pointless crap that has got us where we are.

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1129167321229139968?s=21

Bombshell Brexit leak reveals Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn discussed plan to leave EU on July 31 and avoid second referendum

A Whitehall source said the aim was to rule out a referendum before an exit plan is chosen.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/bombshell-brexit-leak-reveals-theresa-may-and-jeremy-corbyn-discussed-plan-to-leave-eu-on-july-31-a4144686.html

Bombshell? The option of binding indicative votes in parliament has been one of the primary proposals for breaking the deadlock for months. Yet they aren't supposed to discuss it?

Seems to me that the brexit deadlock is now being used by MPs on both sides to replace their own leaderships. There's no interest in solving the brexit conundrum, only petty short term and self-interested motives around their own careers. And they wonder why the people are pissed off!

Meanwhile,

Always follow the money.

https://www.channel4.com/news/nigel-farages-funding-secrets-revealed

There’s no interest in solving the brexit conundrum, only petty short term and self-interested motives around their own careers. And they wonder why the people are pissed off!

Blimey! I actually agree with you on something Daz. This is a first

Remember the words of the EU when they granted the extension to Article 50? Not to waste the time?

Seems that was taken by both parties to mean more pointless posturing, and petty internal squabbling. The Tories leading to a leadership election that will be the nastiest in political history, probably returning an absolute raving anti-EU headbanger as PM, the Labour party to carry on sitting on the fence, dreaming of the revolution, while trying to pretend none of this is actually happening. Then they all go on holiday for 2 months

Don't waste the time indeed....

One things for sure. We're all ****ed! And none of this shower actually care

I can still see Corbyn stitching it up and Whipping his MPs to abstain on Mays vote so she can get it through, as thats what suits them both most

What will happen when we get to October and have to go back again for another extension ? I get the feeling Donald Tusk was intimating about how another extension wouldn't happen; I think Merkel is our main (only?) ally, whereas Macron and a few others would happily see us crash out and burn just to demonstrate to their electorates that LePen and the other hardliners are wrong.

If the talks really have concluded then May will be gone sooner than she likes because the withdrawal agreement can't go back unaltered again and there's no tory appetite for anything like a voteable position

One things for sure. We’re all ****ed! And none of this shower actually care

Then people just need to vote for people that do care (I would put the Green party in that group)

Clearly nothing with be resolved before the end of October and what would get voted through then? Can't see it being any different than before unless the new tory leader has an election and gets a bigger majority. They thought they would get that last time...

Clearly nothing with be resolved before the end of October and what would get voted through then?

It seems fairly obvious that if the MPs can't vote for anything, then this will result in another referendum, probably a simple no deal vs no brexit vote. Given the current support for Farage I'm not sure that will be a good thing.

I can still see Corbyn stitching it up and Whipping his MPs to abstain on Mays vote so she can get it through, as thats what suits them both most

Corbyn is aiming for an early GE. 🤔

It seems fairly obvious that if the MPs can’t vote for anything, then this will result in another referendum, probably a simple no deal vs no brexit vote. Given the current support for Farage I’m not sure that will be a good thing.

Confirmatory vote?
I think we need a confirmatory vote for GE too 🤣

Clearly nothing with be resolved before the end of October and what would get voted through then?

This is why the SNP proposal to give parliament the power to choose to revoke rather then exit with no deal, if it comes down to that at the final hour, was absolutely essential. But Labour didn't vote for parliament to take that power from this or any other Tory PM, so that power is still with whoever that is. As it stands, parliament can not force the next PM to revoke (in a timely manner)… it can vote all it wants to reject "no deal" as an idea, but it can't do anything to stop it once time has run out.

As it stands, parliament can not force the next PM to revoke… it can vote all it wants to reject “no deal” as an idea, but it can’t do anything to stop it.

I suggest the parliament revoke it entirely by forcing the people for confirmatory second referendum then call for a GE to confirm to see if they are doing the right thing.

All that (assuming I can translate your deliberately opaque badly worded nonsense) would take lots of time, and would need to be starting now to be complete before October.

The Lab/Con talks were always going to fail. Any concessions won by Labour would be meaningless once May finally leaves No 10, which would otherwise bind whoever wins the leadership contest to a policy which is unpopular with Conservative grassroots activists - these are dwindling rapidly in number common in ideology.

Threat of deselection will keep Conservative MPs in line, but I would not be surprised to see more Johnny Mercer type rebellions over the coming months.

It's interesting how narratives have shifted in three years - the mooted Norway type arrangements have given way to the nuclear option of "no deal". I have engaged frequently with some Brexiteers to explain this reasoning, the gist of it is that the master plan is to turn the UK (or what's left off it) into a giant Amazon style warehouse to flood the EU marketplace with sub-standard goods which have been imported from all around the world. Such a move would invite a trade war and/or sanctions from EU27. The Irish border is a key issue - Brexiteers actually want a leaky border but you cannot reconcile the fact that differing regulatory standards obligate some form of border. The GATT 24 proposal is fantasy - if I read the WTO rules correctly, it requires unanimous agreement AND for us to fully declare our intended "end state" where we will be in ten years when GATT 24 expires. This is impossible, the only feasible outcome is a series of "emergency" temporary arrangements which ultimately cannot favour us.

Conservative grassroots activists – these are dwindling rapidly in number common in ideology.

And any new members now are mostly ex UKIP activists.

This article is good on the membership, and the very real effect of what you correctly identify on the events that have got us to here…

https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/1129278555513344000?s=21

All that (assuming I can translate your deliberately opaque badly worded nonsense) would take lots of time, and would need to be starting now to be complete before October.

Take a lot of time? In that case no need to have a confirmatory 2nd referendum.

Just simply revoke Article 50 with the support from the main parties since Parliament can decide as they reign supreme.

Then call for a GE.

(I like voting, me)

It seems fairly obvious that if the MPs can’t vote for anything, then this will result in another referendum, probably a simple no deal vs no brexit vote. Given the current support for Farage I’m not sure that will be a good thing.

It sort of feels like we're being inexorably pulled towards a 2nd ref' at times doesn't it? But I think a Tory leadership change in late June will probably help delay anything like that long enough for Halloween to creep up on us...

The truth is Brexiteers of all flavors, hard line no-dealers, Maybot deal supporters or even those that believe an alternative deal is somehow possible will resist a 2nd referendum with every ounce of their being because that runs the very real risk of the whole thing being called off. Those of us who supported remain have generally had our fears confirmed and would more than likely vote the same way again. A proportion those who voted for painted buses are probably re-evaluating their positions, it would only take ~4% of them changing their minds to scupper Brexit, it's a knife-edge margin and they know it so it WILL be blocked.

Much as I'd love a 2nd ref' it ain't going to happen, those standing in the way of it are the shoutiest, and they have too much to lose if one were to happen.

Much as I’d love a 2nd ref’ it ain’t going to happen, those standing in the way of it are the shoutiest, and they have too much to lose if one were to happen.

Then force the govt to have a GE to decide as the current govt fails.

If you don't want a 2nd referendum and want a deal then you will end up with worst of both world as the outcome of the negotiation with EU means, they are going to lock you in further without further privilege of full members.

Your ideal position is to:
1. fight for a 2nd confirmatory referendum.
2. Revoke article 50.
3. "force" a GE to form new govt (if you win) to deal with it differently ... stay or go.

or

4. Go with No deal.

How hard can that be?

🤔

p/s: the current main parties are all spinless ...

This article is good on the membership, and the very real effect of what you correctly identify on the events that have got us to here…

Thank you!

The fact that party members have fallen increasingly out of step with the social and economic trajectory of the country won't simply end in Brexit (whatever form that takes), Brexit itself will merely serve to ensure that the monster is never sated. The collapse of the Conservative in the opinion polls is as predictable as it is gratifying (for me at least!), the only way out is to broaden appeal to a wider membership base but this cannot happen when the party itself moots a portfolio of policies that a growing number of voters find offensive.

This is why some long-standing members seem to be doing all they can to change the ideological landscape to fit see Roger Scruton's utterly bizarre argument here by force. Senior conservatives have lurched into 4chan-esque terms like "cultural marxism" and "culture war" - a la href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/cultural-marxism-suella-braverman-conservative-mp-antisemitism-a8842806.html">Suella Braverman who allowed the mask to slip, either by accident or by intent.

It's basically confirmatory vote or no deal now as far as I see.

(1) May's deal gets through Parly but only with confirmatory vote amendment

Or

(2) May loses vote. Tory leadership election. Get hardcore Brexit PM as Tory membership is very Brexity. Push through no deal or frig about until clock runs out in Oct

If I was on the "team EU negotiators" I will push for Maximum gain from dis-United Kingdom.

I know your (UK) weak point as you are willing to give in to a deal curbing your power to have a say in exchange to have some free travel. I will force you to comply knowing that you are desperate to please the voters and to stay in your govt.

The result of the negotiation will mean that you will come out Worst then before.

Not a win-win solution but Win-loss with EU having the upper hand.

If you think you are going to get away from EU that easily then think again, as you will be punished and set as an example for the rest of EU states. As "a team EU negotiator" I will strike the fear of god into you.

@olddog, this is why May has gone for a withdrawal agreement that will bind us for a few years to 2022 when the next scheduled GE will take place. The danger is that a botched Brexit that costs jobs and living standards will be (rightly) blamed on the Conservatives. Grassroots campaigners want no deal *now* because they know that public opinion will swing and they want to lock us into an irreversible split and in doing so blame the disaster on either the EU (see May's agreement being referred to as "Barnier's Deal" by a prominent conservative recently) or whatever bogeyman the party rank and file conjure up - Corbyn/Socialism/Single Mothers/etc.

It doesn't take a genius to work out that a lurch towards populist authoritarianism would be the only bulwark to preventing a permanent electoral wipeout.

If im interpreting chewy correctly hes saying that leaving the EU is a very bad idea?

Edit - I was being pulled into the troll's games - I'm staying out of it.

If im interpreting chewy correctly hes saying that leaving the EU is a very bad idea?

You have three options:

1. Stay with a deal (may involve confirmatory vote) - you are worst off.
or
2. Revoke Article 50 (may involve confirmatory vote) - No change. You stay the same but the UK Govt. will be in turmoil for foreseeable future.
or
3. Leave (no deal) - you adopt to the changing world.

Edit – I was being pulled into the troll’s games – I’m staying out of it.

Not trolling you at all.

What other options do you have apart from the above I have listed?

Let's see which main political party has the gut to make the important decision as one wrong move means decimation of their party for a long long time.

Let's see if the politicians put their self-interest above the people.

p/s: if I was a politician MP I would vote according to my constituency (I represent them) and live a happy life and collect my pension accordingly. Two things are achieved here: I truly represent the people and I get no blame. Bingo! Life is good.

Edit – I was being pulled into the troll’s games – I’m staying out of it.

Ah, the black hole of nonsensical non-sequitur. TBH, I installed the killfile and it has improved my forum experience considerably.

You have three options:

1. Stay with a deal (may involve confirmatory vote) – you are worst off.
or
2. Revoke Article 50 (may involve confirmatory vote) – No change. You stay the same but the UK Govt. will be in turmoil for foreseeable future.
or
3. Leave (no deal) – you're totally ****ed for the next fifty years.

Almost. FTFY.

The uncomfortable truth that people like chewkw are either unable or unwilling to accept is simply this:

There is no form of brexit, be it deal or no deal or cake and unicorns, which leaves us better off than we are currently.

This is the circle which parliament has been unsuccessfully trying to square for three years, because it cannot be done. The deal is literally the least worst leave option. Unlike May's deal, crashing out will at least give us something it's true - the opportunity to strike exciting new trade deals with Papua New Guinea or some such - but at what cost? It's like going into a shop and seeing a cheese sandwich for sale for a million pounds and thinking "well, at least I'll have a cheese sandwich."

It's absolutely, completely and utterly barking. Anyone espousing "no deal" as desirable is either corrupt, completely disengaged from the process without the faintest grasp of what they're talking about, or clinically insane.

And, the bind for the politicans is… still…

There is no form of brexit, be it deal or no deal or cake and unicorns, which is more popular than what we have currently.

Any Brexit plan only takes a minority of the voters with you. If you put your name to any Brexit plan… you will be deserted at the ballet box… and mostly fervently by those that embraced Brexit as an idea, ironically.

It’s absolutely, completely and utterly barking. Anyone espousing “no deal” as desirable is either corrupt, completely disengaged from the process without the faintest grasp of what they’re talking about....

Which brings us neatly to Daniel Hannan MEP - his assertion that we could leave the EU and opt-out of GDPR regs, yet we would continue to trade with the EU as before except better is absolutely laughable. Ordinarily, this would be career-destroying stupidity:

It also explains why Twitter is awash with people who cannot spell "Lichtenstein", but who consider themselves experts on post-EU international trade, despite never having even skim read the WTO agreements that we are supposedly falling back on. This shit has been pumped ad infinitum by the tabloid media (and indeed one formerly powerful broadsheet). Why do you think that it's suddenly become about nascent nationalism?

or clinically insane.

This may be closer to the truth than most people realise given the Spectator blog I posted earlier.

The only scenario that makes any sense to me whatsoever is that the master plan is to ensure that we can import the world's crap and then flood our nearby markets with it via intentionally leaky border arrangements. It's either that or be effectively swallowed up by another powerful trading bloc and/or nation state - the proposed US/UK trade deal is extremely lopsided which adds credence to that.

My shop is in a nice affluent area of Surrey.

I've decided to take on the brexit business model. I'm going to tell all my customers that walk through the door to **** off and only do mail order from people as fair away as possible.

The uncomfortable truth that people like chewkw are either unable or unwilling to accept is simply this:

There is no form of brexit, be it deal or no deal or cake and unicorns, which leaves us better off than we are currently.

You are basically advocating for status quo just like UK were before the referendum.

But since we already had a referendum, and you cannot turn back the clock, the genie is out of the bottle.

Realistically you have two options only to maintain the status quo which will be option 1 or 2 to choose from.

Do it then call for a GE.

Just had a Brexit party leaflet through the door. Far age's picture is all the wrong aspect ratio. He looks like a squashed frog.

Just had a Brexit party leaflet through the door. Far age’s picture is all the wrong aspect ratio. He looks like a squashed frog.

If you are interested in that then just check Youtbue out to see the criticism on ALL the political party leaflets. You will be surprised that all of them are laughable.

The only people that win out of the political leaflets are the printing companies.

Just had a Brexit party leaflet through the door. Farage’s picture is all the wrong aspect ratio. He looks like a squashed frog.

Because the Brexit Party have not published a manifesto, I've unfortunately been forced to amend my Brexit flyer to add the toothbrush moustache to Farage, along with the missing ejaculating penis (observing the strict three-pube-per-testicle rule) on his forehead.

I may have also added speech bubbles to give voice to the candidates' inner monologues.

This will naturally be posted back to TBP HQ, in an unstamped envelope which may possibly contain a bag of gravel and/or the most recent choice selections obtained from our cats' litter tray.

All hail the killfile. 🙌

All hail the killfile.

Yes, indeed. When I finally meet the forumite who created it, I will gladly buy them a few pints to express my gratitude. I daresay that if they turned up to an STW bash, they'd not need to buy their own drinks all evening.

I've actually been using an alternative to killfile. It's called 'I'm not reading posts by ....'

It works pretty well. Basically, as soon as I see a name that I know is going to be spouting nonsensical bollocks I go, 'I'm not reading that' and skip to the next post. If the next post looks like it's an answer to the nonsensical bollocks I skip that as well.

On here it's a real time-saver.

Yeah, I think we all have to use that one on mobile view. chewkw and some other Bruce fella are the two for me. 😀

Yeah, I think we all have to use that one on mobile view. chewkw and some other Bruce fella are the two for me. 😀

🤣

I too received the Brexit flyer. I tweeted @brexitparty_uk to say I was impressed by the emphasis on "Trust Honesty and Integrity". However I pointed out that if asked to put together a list of a thousand politicians who embody those attributes, Nigel Farage wouldn't make the bottom of it.

My flyer went back. Everyone inside had the c word written over them.

The flyer we received was addressed to my son, a new voter. He won't be voting for them.

because that runs the very real risk of the whole thing being called off.

Farage wants this. It’s his vehicle to power. The Brexiteers won’t be silenced, and in the wake of the tories and labour being destroyed by their own divisions, it leaves a space for Farage to follow the Trump route to power. As crazy as that sounds just think about it for a moment.

Trump hijacked a mainstream party. Farage isn't going to be Tory leader and will fall back in GE when Brexit is resolved one way or another.

In a GE will the ****wit party split the swivel eyed vote?

Anyone have a source for how many EU regulations and standards are based on UK regulations? I know load of the eirocodes are nearly just old BS but what about other fields?

I think the outline options cheeks puts down are about right. Let’s consider the implications.

1. Revoke & remain. Economically win:win, short term democratic deficit, lots of grumbling from Brexies and protest voters that they never get listened to.

2. Deal / Softish Brexit. Economically EU win : UK loss getting worse for the UK over time as the UK become tile takers. Democratic deficit OK initially but becoming a real problem over time as the UK accepts rules they have no say over (we got the rules we wanted circa 90% of the time as EU members). Muttering from all sides becoming grumbling then protest over time.

3. No deal. Lose:lose economically. Ignores almost half of those who voted 3 years ago and rather more than that now, but work out your own democratic view of that. Muttering from remainers, becoming rioting by Brexies as they realise they were sold a pup. Senior Brexies ok as they had moved their interests off shore.

Sound about right?

Option 1 sounds the least bad, but any way you look at it as Farage says Brexit is s humiliation.

As well as asking quitters what the first euro law they would repeal is I’m asking them what the first of Sharia law they would implement is.

Pointing out that they are more Islamic than European goes down a treat.

I know both sides question the BBC's impartiality, but make your own minds up about the ballot paper picture halfway down the page;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48190925

Th ballot paper with political parties on it?

Are you suggesting that the pen laid across the Brexit Party is some sort of hint? D'you not think that might a bit paranoid? (unless you're joking? )

Revoke & remain. Economically win:win, short term democratic deficit, lots of grumbling from Brexies and protest voters that they never get listened to.

probably collapse of both Labour and Tories as parties. Which seems on the face of it to be perhaps no bad thing, but what fills the vacuum? The Brexit Party? A different Hard right-wing ultra leave party? A Hard left-wing ultra leave party, a handful of centre remain parties that can't form a government by themselves? Coalitions that go over and over the Brexit issue until we die in the heat expansion death of the sun

probably

I'd agree that both the "pen pointing" and the way the light falls highlight the Brexit party, but whether it's deliberate or not is unclear...

probably collapse of both Labour and Tories as parties. Which seems on the face of it to be perhaps no bad thing, but what fills the vacuum?

Moderate voters and MPs would still need a home.

Isn't everyone getting a bit excited about Brexit Party. UKIP won the 2014 Euros and then did nothing in 2 GEs. Brexit party is doing better in overall voter share but not surprising giving Brexit cluster ****.

The main parties are falling back for similar Brexit reasons. Lid Dems are doing well as clear ani Brexit party and are forgiven for coalition. Greens picking up disillusioned remainer lefties.

The real impact of the Brexit party surge will be the way it shapes the main parties and how they respond to retain their voter base.

The Brexit ref itself was a response by Tories to 2014 Euro result and internal strife over it - so I can't see them going any other way than full Brexit with a new leader.

Labour will continue to try position themselves so they can blame Tories for Brexit shambles and then move on as quickly as possible to other things including green issues to win back voters

Lib-Dems will fall back as everyone realises they are basically a bit shite in a GE context other than for a protest vote

ChUk have demonstrated how little space there is for another centre party

You are basically advocating for status quo just like UK were before the referendum.

I'm actually not. I've said a number of times now, our message should be "reform" not "remain" and you can't do that from without.

Moderate voters and MPs would still need a home.

That particular war has been fought and lost, I reckon

Isn’t everyone getting a bit excited about Brexit Party.

Maybe, but I think this time it's fairly clear that Farage has a wider agenda beyond achieving brexit. He'll use the euros as a platform to launch a major challenge at the next general election, by which time brexit still won't be resolved. With the tories and labour in chaos he'll win a lot of seats, and will then either be the balance of power in an informal coalition with the tories, or the main opposition to a weak labour govt. Either way that puts him one step away from gaining power in a future election.

Yup, and "the wrong kind of Brexit" will be used as leverage even if we are on the way out still. "Getting on with it" will not stop the populist bandwagon. They have prepared for all outcomes to be used to further the "cause". Just because the message is simplistic to the point of being entirely empty of any real policy detail, do not assume that there isn't a highly complex plan in place to build popular support to dismantle the UK and rebuild it in a form unimaginable not that long ago.

igm

I think the outline options cheeks puts down are about right. Let’s consider the implications.

1...

You forgot this one

4. Scotland, Wales, and NI leave the Union. This leaves a proportionally increased majority in England for Brexit once the devolved countries votes no longer affect the issue.

The newly independent devolved countries crash in flames without the wise governance of the New Tory govt under Boris.

Oh, wait...

Economically EU win : UK loss getting worse for the UK over time as the UK become tile takers.

And no-one will want to play Scrabble with us then.

Most impressed with Burger Kings tweet 🙂

https://news.sky.com/story/nigel-farage-mcdonalds-asked-not-to-sell-milkshakes-during-rally-11723088

Vaguely disappointed the police asked McDonalds not to sell milkshakes in first place though...

Well, bring your own folks.

Quite annoyed I didn't find out about that til after, it's just down the road- I've got a whole bunch of out of date chocolate milk in the cupboard too

And if you don't have a milkshake ,IMPROVISE!

And if you don’t have a milkshake ,IMPROVISE!

*Gets out blender, adds milk and then shits in blender*

 “reform” not “remain” and you can’t do that from without.

If we do remain we will not be in any position to insist reform. EU27 will argue that we came back as there was nothing better to leave well alone.

From the horse’s mouth. I’ll be honest I find this tweet pretty terrifying.

https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1129332991610818560?s=21

What he fails to mention is that he'd quite like to replace it with a one-party system.

For a resolutely positive view of Britain (which is rare around these parts) Arte produced this a couple of years ago. They're showing it again. It was Spain last week and that was enough to finalise our holiday plans.
Enjoy:

https://www.programme-tv.net/programme/culture-infos/10670345-un-jour-au-royaume-uni/

Edit: don't worry if you don't understand either French or German (the language choices) just the images will have you singing Land of Hope and Glory.

If Toadface gets anywhere near any real power with that as his stated aim, then it might be time to start googling Mannlicher Carcano surplus and looking for the nearest building marked ‘Book Depositary’.

If there is anyone out there who owns an open top vintage limo, then we may achieve some ‘dovetailing’.

My Brexit Party leaflet was shoved through the door alongside a pamphlet for 'The England Party' - English Jobs for the English, apparently. Plus UKIP and 'The Yorkshire Party'.

This makes me fear that the Yorkshire Party may be something of a Trojan Horse.

Dear Mr Banks I definitely heard farage call you a **** today ,time to stop his pocket money.

Walking past the posters outside the local school/voting bureau (all official) for the various parties in the Euro elections I noticed there's a Frexit party to vote for, if Google + still existed for me to post photos I'd have posted a pic of the two people in the pic. We have "gammons" in France too it would appear. I'll post how many votes they get when we get the results.

I'm amazed that 34% of respondents would pledge support for a party without having read the list of policies or any manifesto.

Post-secondary education of critical thinking skills training should be mandatory.

Post-secondary nursery education of critical thinking skills training should be mandatory.

FTFY.

I’m amazed that 34% of respondents would pledge support for a party without having read the list of policies or any manifesto.

I am not amazed at all and it has probably always been like that. If you question the average voter on what policies they agree to and then tell them what party has those policies they are usually surprised to hear that they are Labour policies for example even though they vote tory "because"

Smash the NHS ,crush British farmers,  slam the door on white Christian immigration. Vote Brexit Party.

I’m amazed that 34% of respondents would pledge support for a party without having read the list of policies or any manifesto.

Well, 52% of those that voted supported leaving the EU, without having a read a list of policies, or any manifesto. Lesson learnt… promise vague change.