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and the general feeling I get from local Facebook groups is very anti-Corbyn
Facebook groups are hardly representative. They're even worse than this place! It's true that Corbyn is seen negatively by many, which is hardly surprising given the media onslaught against him. As with the last election though, the requirement to give him balanced airtime will show people he's not the ogre the Daily Mail and Binners make him out to be. Campaigning is probably the only thing he's actually good at, and working class voters will need very little persuasion to back him.
Anyone following BREXIT PROTEST & DIRECT ACTION GROUP UK on Facebook?
They're currently trying to organise protests & what not (they were responsible for the recent go-slows on the motorways)
It's quite funny, they are currently imploding as Brexit hasn't been delivered.
Interesting comments here:
https://www.ft.com/content/6a14385a-5536-11e9-91f9-b6515a54c5b1?list=opinion
Same as when she says “let’s sit down and talk” she means “and then you can agree with everything I say”
This x100. I think she just wants to share her shit sandwich as widely as possible. If he engages, he gets a bite of the brexit betrayal blame, if he doesn't, she calls an election and the Tories focus on their legendary can-do attitude vs obstructionism from Labour.
Doesn't stand up to that much scrutiny, but that appears to be the desperate political flavour of the moment.
Interesting comments here:
Well they would be if we could read them. What's the point in posting links to paywalled sites?
Numbers pro and against added up and center group divided by 2.
I think that's a fairly simplistic reading of things, all it shows is that there's a solid block for and against(against being much larger at the minute), all the ones in the middle are the potential floating voters, so the ones that can be fought for, so interesting from that perspective. Particularly when you look at it from an age perspective(support against is clearly going to take a serious hit over the next 10/20 years.).
Also, you may ask why there wasn’t a straightforward question on “how would you vote in a new referendum today?”.
It wasn’t even asked, which is strange? (same with wings latest polling).
It's obviously not the information they are looking for, a straight binary yes or no question doesn't tell an awful lot about how you should strategise.
What the survey probably shows most revealingly(reading beyond the data), is that the independistas are playing/should play(I'm not completely sold on that) a long game, and the unionistas are just fighting fire.
(I'm not evening going to comment on "wings", the guy is a bam.)
Anyhow, this is probably for another thread, as I mentioned, ideas that Scotland is an EU lifeboat in the short term are hopeful, at best.
ElShalimo
Member
Interesting comments here:
> https://www.ft.com/content/6a14385a-5536-11e9-91f9-b6515a54c5b1?list=opinion
I often wonder if people just put up paywall Financial Times links to say, hey, I read the FT, look at me! 😆
Corbyn will be quickly trying to work out what red line May still won't cross, so he can ask for that.
It’s true that Corbyn is seen negatively by many, which is hardly surprising given the media onslaught against him. As with the last election though, the requirement to give him balanced airtime will show people he’s not the ogre the Daily Mail and Binners make him out to be.
That and actually being a bit rubbish. Sorry the benefit of the doubt has been given. Add in the baggage that ain't going away he has enough who won't vote for him so they need to make a choice.
I often wonder if people just put up paywall Financial Times links to say, hey, I read the FT, look at me!
Said it a few times, register and you get a number of free articles per month. It's free and easy.
Campaigning is probably the only thing he’s actually good at,
Well that's damning with faint praise.
Latest You Gov poll now has a slim majority in favour of no deal.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/brexit/survey-results
^^^ common sense left this country some time ago
Thats insane!
But its where we are. The amount of ERG nutters you see on the news who you hear saying 'we should just leave on WTO rules' as if they actually have the remotest clue what they actually are. And again we're being let down by the media who just let it pass when interviewing these idiots, instead of saying "go on then smartarse... what are WTO rules? What are the import tariffs on food then? Or Cars? Or washing up liquid? Or fuel? Or hamsters? Go on, fill us in with your extensive knowledge of the subject...."
FFS... Nadine Dorrris didn't even know what a customs union was the other week! She had to have it explained to her. I doubt she's got much grip on the details of WTO rules, yet there she is on the news saying 'we should just leave on WTO rules'
We're being led down this path by ignorant fools, because they're just allowed to keep spouting this gibberish, completely unchallenged
Latest You Gov poll now has a slim majority in favour of no deal.
What, the brexit options results from 25th march that show 42% preferring revocation? With 23% supporting no deal. Funny definition of "majority"
Ah found it. The question was what the UK should do if there's no deal by 12th AND an extension is refused. The prior question related to just no agreed deal by 12th and while no deal got the most support in that there was more combined support for some action to avoid no deal. Take away the extension and you split that support. So in one carefully constructed question there is a slim majority of support for no deal, but in general there is more support for avoiding it. Isn't selective quoting great.
What, the brexit options results from 25th march that show 42% preferring revocation? With 23% supporting no deal. Funny definition of “majority”
I think if it had been read properly it shows a small majority for leave - when the options are added up.
With 23% supporting no deal. Funny definition of “majority”
That’s not too dissimilar to the percentage of the population who voted for brexit in the first place
Latest You Gov poll now has a slim majority in favour of no deal.
I'm more interested in the bookies odds and the euro-pound exchange rate. How did that rate change yesterday?
There will be no no deal. I've thought it for ages, and yesterday confirmed it. At the moment, I'm probably 66-33 against any leaving at all.
That’s not too dissimilar to the percentage of the population who voted for brexit in the first place
That was the analysis yesterday when the numbers came out, the true leavers are geting more entrenched, they think they are 50% of the population but they are really closer to 35%
Hmmm - recent parliamentary activity has shown us that supporters of one strand of leave will not support another strand, so simply adding up the leave segments in that poll is questionable. Though if you do that it's interesting that it's not consistent with longer term polling on the referendum question eg.
seosamh
ideas that Scotland is an EU lifeboat in the short term are hopeful, at best
Yup, thats what I was getting at. Its a distraction and neither likely or useful in the immediate situation.
Even Nicola tweeted this yesterday (for about a minute)
"The Tories’ obsession with independence is becoming quite ridiculous"
from HERE.
I hope we're going to end up with a long extension, past the EU elections, and a peoples vote.
If we do, then its because the EU is trying to help us above and beyond any help we would offer them if the situation was reversed.
Something has to change in politics. Is direct rule from Brussels an option?
I think the numbers posted 20hr ago have changed again to favour Brexit No Deal.
YouGov - What might help on Brexit
Saw my folks at the weekend and after explaining a few truths my leave voting step dad said " it's best if we have another vote and remain."
It's taken 3 years but we got there.
There will be no no deal. I’ve thought it for ages, and yesterday confirmed it.
I've been convinced of this for months. Because our politicians would have to put their self-interest and party loyalies aside to achieve any other alternative. And they've shown that they have consistently been unprepared to do this, no matter how high the stakes
They keep saying that a majority of MPs 'don't want' no deal. But at every opportunity they fail to take the action neccessary to stop it happeninng
Everything has been heading for No Deal. Its obvious that they're resigned to this in Brussels now. I think that May knows it too, and hence the present moves are to spread the blame when the calamity becomes reality next week.
I suspect in two weeks time we'll be looking at this present shambles as a golden age of stability. We have been utterly failed by our political class, and we're about to find out just to what extent. I genuinelly fear for where we're going as a country. Its truly depressing
To Chewkw's Point
If Britain has not agreed a deal by April 12th,
what do you think should happen?
Britain should leave the European Union without a
deal 40
Britain should seek a further extension 11
Britain should withdraw our application to leave and
remain in the EU 36
Don't know 13
Should we no deal @40 Should we Extend or Revoke 47%
Would you support or oppose MPs forming a
national government, with a cabinet made up of
MPs of all the main parties, to deal with the
issue of Brexit?
Support 45
Oppose 22
Don't know 33
Sample size is also weighted towards Leave, and the question is very specific, not on what outcome do you want but what if this occurs.
Having once fallen down that particular rabbit hole, I caution anyone against trying to reason with a certain forum poster.
A thoroughly depressing but accurate article of how ridiculous we look, from the New York Times
The United Kingdom Has Gone Mad
The problem with holding out for a perfect Brexit plan is that you can’t fix stupid.
Having once fallen down that particular rabbit hole, I caution anyone against trying to reason with a certain forum poster.
Aye. It's like fighting an ugly bastard, he's nothing to lose.
From a country that voted in Trump as president....
Exactly. They've a total buffoon in charge. We've got 650 of them
kerley
Member
From a country that voted in Trump as president….
It's very much worthwhile reading how we are viewed from abroad, the Australians in particular are hard hitting and quick to point out our stupidity 😉
We’ve got 650 of them
we voted for them
I saw my parents at the weekend and they are so firmly entrenched in no deal it’s rediculous. I even got “You lost, get over it!” shouted at me by my mother.
They are both vehemently anti-EU and are happy to bury the country as long as they escape. They are convinced that no deal was what was being sold by the leave campaign.
It’s very much worthwhile reading how we are viewed from abroad, the Australians in particular are hard hitting and quick to point out our stupidity
I don't need to know how we are viewed from abroad, I can see it for myself. I can also see most other countries having the same problem if a similar referendum was held on a divisive topic with no easy solution to what may get voted for.
Do you really think France, Spain, Germany etc,. would have had a great time implementing Frexit, Spexit, Grexit and if they had a referendum the result may be as stupid as ours.
Sample size is also weighted towards Leave, and the question is very specific, not on what outcome do you want but what if this occurs.
Yes, you are right about the question of "what if ..."
But do you foresee that in 11 days there will be a clear answer?
I don't think so because based on all the Parliamentary disagreements so far the probability of the "what if ...", to me, is inevitably high don't you think so?
🤔
However only the UK was stupid enough to actually hold one
However only the UK was stupid enough to actually hold one
On the contrary, it demonstrates that however stupid an idea it is, if the people demand it, then their leaders are duty bound to give them one. Democracy in action? Or would you prefer dictatorship? We need more democracy not less.
The problem is not that we had a referendum, but that it was poorly executed, not sufficiently and accurately explained to the public so they could make an informed choice, and then the result not enacted in a transparent and competent fashion.
we voted for them
I didn't vote for any of them.
There are 100+ MPs that I really rate, but none of them are there as a result of my vote, and most UK voters can say the exact same thing.
the funniest thing about those that keep saying we can leave with no deal & then just get an FTA withe the EU after is .........
https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/1113092951553572870
On the contrary, it demonstrates that however stupid an idea it is, if the people demand it, then their leaders are duty bound to give them one. Democracy in action? Or would you prefer dictatorship? We need more democracy not less.
What like a vote to review the final deal and accept if we still want to leave 😉
I saw my parents at the weekend and they are so firmly entrenched in no deal it’s rediculous. I even got “You lost, get over it!” shouted at me by my mother.
Noting against your parents per-se, but I’m fed up of angry gammons screaming to “just leave, get on with it, you lost etc”.
They could add... “the past 40+ year arrangement with the EU has made us disproportionately wealthy compared to our parents and our children’s generation. We bought our home for a tiny fraction of its current value, bar a few months more than 30 years ago we’ve enjoyed generally low interest rates (not that we won’t remind you every time about 15% base rates) and high levels of employment for most of our adult lives.
We now sit in, mortgage free in a home our children could only dream of owning, enjoying a comfortable life paid for by our final salary pensions, topped up by our triple locked state pension.
Now we’ve got too much time on our hands, thanks to an earlier retirement than either our parents or children will get and longest life expectancy in history (despite our love of cholesterol, Tobacco and alcohol) we’ve started to read the Daily Mail, cover to cover, every day. We no longer want to be governed by those ‘foreigners’ in the EU, they’re just the Elites, we want to be governed solely by the Former Bankers and Etonians in London who’ve told us are ‘of the people’. We know we’re just screwing our kids over again for our own sakes, just like we did when we sold all the utilities in the 80s for a quick buck, I told Sid! But we don’t care, because we’re the greedy selfish generation, we even made a film about it once - greed is good!”.
yep Juncker just confirmed what the preconditions for a trade deal will be under no deal sitiation 🙂
The problem is that the 'Just Leave with No Deal' crew simply dont care or listen to this
then get all outraged when it becomes reality
I think the positioning of a "No deal/WTO" response is potentially more of a protest vote.
The Brexiteers I've spoken to know they will be worse off but think it's a price worth paying for "freedom". It's difficult to explain how they are in all likelihood going to have less protection & less choice (which I equate to freedom) once the ERG et al have ripped up the EU rulebook which has protected their rights to date.
If you point out how the main protagonists of No deal themselves stand to make money out of it & why they should question their motivation. The answer is "So? I'm poor anyway & I'll be more poor after.....but there'll be fine" - which is just a bat sh1t crazy stance to take..
No, they don't care as long as 2 fingers are shoved up at the EU & current establishment not realising that they will be swapping one bunch of tossers for another & being poorer in the process. At least with the current crop you know where you stand.....I wouldn't trust ERG et al as far as I could throw them!
Then you hear "undemocratic" but when you explain that actually the EU is really no less democratic than our own country, the blank looks are all you need for confirmation that critical analysis has left the building.
Proclamations of WTO/No deal being acceptable are ridiculous - I've not read one report that says they are economically sound. Now if a Brexit option came up which was economically sound I'd listen to it, BUT they haven't - no-one has because there isn't one. From a pragmatic point of view I think we should be out BUT IF ONLY IT'S NOT AN ACT OF SELF HARM.
We (the UK) are in a rather unique position. We are a member of a club but we've cherry picked the best bits & avoided some of the more onerous. Now we want to leave that club, cherry pick the fattest wallets from the coats in the cloakroom on our way-out & not pay our bar bill. Then scweam that the Management is being a bully when they won't let us...........it's so childish & mired in self-entitlement it reeks..
It's fing crazy - these idiots want to take us all down with them....for what?!
What like a vote to review the final deal and accept if we still want to leave 😉
The Commonwealth nations are watching the UK very closely ... 🤔
What like a vote to review the final deal and accept if we still want to leave
Absolutely. I've said quite a few times that a second vote is not a bad idea as long as it can be demonstrated that there is public support for one.
dazh,
if the people demand it, then their leaders are duty bound to give them one
Who demanded it?
Some tories looking for to lance a boil and getting an amputation instead?
There was no demand.
Democracy in action? Or would you prefer dictatorship?
Looking at the way our democracy is presently 'functioninng', I'd take a dictatorship at the moment
To be honest, once whichever nutter replaces May tears up all the EU rules, we're no longer under the juristiction of the ECJ and we don't have a written constitution, that may well be pretty close to what we end up with anyway
dazh
Absolutely. I’ve said quite a few times that a second vote is not a bad idea as long as it can be demonstrated that there is public support for one.
Isn't it labour party policy?...........
as long as it can be demonstrated that there is public support for one.
Something like a million people on the streets and 7 million signing up online? Or something bigger?
as long as it can be demonstrated that there is public support for one
Nearly 2 million taking to the streets demonstrate that for you? Most votes in the indicative process etc.
demonstrated that there is public support for one.
So a vote on whether to have a vote?
Who demanded it?
Cameron stood on a manifesto offering an in/out referendum. For some daft reason the people voted him in! Doesn't really matter why he offered it, if the people didn't want it they would have voted for someone else.
On the contrary, it demonstrates that however stupid an idea it is, if the people demand it, then their leaders are duty bound to give them one
I don't recall it being demanded. Maybe I wasn't in that day.
Cameron stood on a manifesto offering an in/out referendum. For some daft reason the people voted him in! Doesn’t really matter why he offered it, if the people didn’t want it they would have voted for someone else.
That's Theresa May levels of logic. Plenty voted for him despite him offering an in/out referendum, plenty voted Tory because they vote Tory. I'll bet a tiny minority voted Tory because they actively wanted a referendum
if the people didn’t want it they would have voted for someone else.
So people were voting for that and not for 8 billion for the NHS?
In the same manifesto they also said they were committed to staying in the Single Market (amongst many other things).
Nearly 2 million taking to the streets demonstrate that for you? Most votes in the indicative process etc.
You seem to be assuming that I'm against a public vote. I'm not. I have concerns that it will cause more problems than it will resolve, which is why it shouldn't be imposed against what the people want. The march and petition are good indicators that this support exists. An election with labour standing on a manifesto to give a 2nd vote would be a better option, but if an election is not possible a 2nd vote is the next best option.
P-jay and mrlebowski, sounds like you’ve been hanging around my neighbourhood?! We live in is one of the ex mining areas where almost 75% of those that voted wanted to leave. I guess you could say there’s a lot of ignorance about ‘round here - see loads of people buying the Mail in the local shop....and the poppy mafia is strong all year round. I’m still waiting for even a vaguely coherent explanation of sovereignty 😁
dazh,
Cameron stood on a manifesto offering an in/out referendum. For some daft reason the people voted him in! Doesn’t really matter why he offered it, if the people didn’t want it they would have voted for someone else.
Fractal pish. It wasn't in the top 5 (or maybe 10) things people were actually concerned about, and it was only offered to lance the ukip boil.
That comment is on a level with "80% of people voted for brexit supporting parties", and it demonstrates the problem with hoping that a general election will sort this out.
I think the main problem with a confirmatory vote/2nd ref. is the bias of the mainstream media in this country, and let’s face it, that ain’t going to change under the current government. No one seems to have the balls to call out the press barons whose agenda seems to be to get the country out of the EU to continue their tax avoidance.
“80% of people voted for brexit supporting parties”,
that quote is a dangerous one for Labour
it reminds millions of voters not to vote labour again as it will be used against them by brexiters
https://twitter.com/EveryCountry/status/1113010503998210048?s=19
Taking back control of our finances.
dazh
An election with labour standing on a manifesto to give a 2nd vote would be a better option
It would be non specific, Keir would say it, Jeremy would obfuscate it, and only you would believe it.
Thats where we are now.
It wasn’t in the top 5 (or maybe 10) things people were actually concerned about, and it was only offered to lance the ukip boil.
Don't be daft, it wildly popular with tory voters. Even if it wasn't, are you suggesting that political parties should be able to cherry pick their manifestos when they win an election? I mean I know they do, but they shouldn't, and they are rightly criticised for it. Remember what happened to the libdems when they experimented with this practice?
Anyone see Yvette Cooper on the news last night (channel 4 I think)? Did make me think, can someone please just get rid of May and Corbyn and put Yvette Copper in charge - She seems sharp, reasoned and quick thinking....like a ‘proper adult’, I reckon she’d make a good PM.
Well she's been doing a damn site better job of being leader of the opposition than the muppet presently tasked with the job.
She constantly holds May to account when beardy can't be bothered too
Cameron stood on a manifesto offering an in/out referendum. For some daft reason the people voted him in!
I’ll bet a tiny minority voted Tory because they actively wanted a referendum
I'd be willing to bet that it was a tiny minority that actively read that manifesto.
Most people vote based on popular opinion amongst their social circles, and the snippets of info they pick up from the media.
That's before you even consider tactical voting.
“80% of people voted for brexit supporting parties”,
that quote is a dangerous one for Labour
it reminds millions of voters not to vote labour again as it will be used against them by brexiters
As a lifetime Labour supporter, I already feel quite strongly against voting for them in future based on this alone. It's disingenuous in the extreme.
dazh,
It became an issue because cameron made it one.
It wasn't the primary issue people voted on (certainly not a majority of voters).
The point I'm making is less about how we got here, and more about your insistence that voting labour in a general election would get us out of it.
Labour have played both sides for months (years?) to try and keep both remainers and leavers onside for them (or maybe just keep their leader onside?).
You seem to think that they would explicitly select a side for a general election manifesto.
I don't, and I wouldn't believe them if they said they had.
I agree we've been here before with the lib dems, but you are very mistaken if you think that that was more significant than what labour has done in the recent months.
The lib dems sold some policies to get a referendum on proportional representation. Labour have sold and resold any political capital they had for what?
They reinterpret their "policy" on a minute by minute basis to suit the perceived audience. Its not a good look and its pretty transparent.
They want to ride this wave of pish into downing street, but I hope it throws them on the rocks along with the tories.
Can someone please get rid of May and Corbyn?
It would appear the Paras are already training for such a scenario.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/apr/03/video-british-troops-firing-jeremy-corbyn-poster
You seem to think that they would explicitly select a side for a general election manifesto.
You've misunderstood then. It's true that labour have been playing both sides for the simple reason that their core voters are spread across both sides, and in particular have many staunchly leave supporting constituencies. They're pitching themselves as the unity/compromise party via the vehicle of a soft brexit, and perhaps a confirmatory vote. That seems like the right approach to me as coming down solidly on one side or the other will basically be electoral suicide.
They reinterpret their “policy” on a minute by minute basis to suit the perceived audience.
Their policy has been set in stone since September and they haven't deviated from it one iota. The main group of people reinterpreting it are those who want others to be confused about it.
As a lifetime Labour supporter, I already feel quite strongly against voting for them in future based on this alone.
Who else are you going to vote for? A vote for anyone other than labour in seats where labour are the primary opposition to the tories is basically just increasing the chances of the tories remaining in power. How does that help your anti-brexit position?
if the people demand it, then their leaders are duty bound to give them one
Cameron gave in to the head banging nutters on the back benches to “finally put the EU question to bed once and for all.”
He also said he’d stick around to enact the result of the referendum.
How did all that work out for him?
dazh
coming down solidly on one side or the other will basically be electoral suicide
Hows that working out in the polls these days?
Not coming down "on one side or the other" on the biggest political question of the era (in the UK) may not be the best look for a political party.
Just sayin'
put Yvette Copper in charge
hhhmmm ... 🤔 ... 🤣
Who else are you going to vote for? A vote for anyone other than labour in seats where labour are the primary opposition to the tories is basically just increasing the chances of the tories remaining in power. How does that help your anti-brexit position?
Depends if your mp is Kate get us out of here, vote for the most remain on the list.
Hows that working out in the polls these days?
Do you deny the difficulty that labour face? Do you really think alienating one half of their potential voter base is a good idea? Back in 2016 Corbyn's critics said he would never win with high minded principles and needed to be pragmatic. Now they say he should take a purist principled view of brexit irrespective of whether it damages his election chances. It's very strange.
Back in 2016 Corbyn’s critics said he would never win with high minded principles and needed to be pragmatic. Now they say he should take a purist principled view of brexit irrespective of whether it damages his election chances. It’s very strange.
It's almost as if things have changed in the last 2 1/2 years.
They will know the polling on leave voting places, also remember it's not half the population who voted leave. There was data they a lot of the leave areas had a chunk of non Labour leavers.
By ambling along he risks losing the half that want remain. He has already lost a chunk of the middle classes for other reasons.
By ambling along he risks losing the half that want remain.
That ship has already sailed
Don’t be daft, it wildly popular with tory voters.
That's not the question. The question is how many of those Tory votes voted Tory because of this promise, or perhaps how many would not have voted Tory if this promise was not in the manifesto?
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/12/11/1544504400000/The-only-Brexit-chart-you-need-to-see/
According to IPSOS/Mori graph in this link the EU relationship was quite a long way down the list of what folks were bothered about before the referendum.
There was no great public campaign for a referendum - it was entirely down to Cameron trying to kill off the issues within the conservatives once and for all.
And as R4 have just highlighted the local elections are coming up, forget the eu elections she can't survive a beating in the local elections.
There was no great public campaign for a referendum – it was entirely down to Cameron trying to kill off the issues within the conservatives once and for all.
You miss the point. I agree with the above statement, but it doesn't change the fact that the voters put in power a party with a promise in their manifesto to hold the referendum. Once that happened it had to be held because once you get into the position of second guessing the voters and cherry picking manifesto commitments we might as well not bother having elections.