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If we had started assuming worst case no-deal we would then know the areas of most pain to try and negotiate up from
The important word there is TRY.
I still do not understand how a second referendum is undemocratic. Surely it is the very essence of democracy.
The country voted for Brexit without understanding what that would look like. Now we know what the deal looks like, ask us again.
More importantly, is Mark Francois actual dwarf?
But why would we start by assuming the worst position, when we already knew that we'd have £350m per week for the NHS and the rest of the world was crying out to give us better trade deals than the EU had?
Surely no-one could be suggesting that these things weren't true...?
you have made up uour mind as to what outcome each future event will be, it’s a bold claim with so many variables in play.
I have not. I just want to know how a confidence vote suddenly creates the support and means to stop no deal. So far it just looks like wishful thinking that Parliament can use a confidence vote to stop no deal… which is why I would be happier either for parliament to set out now to obtain the means to force government to revoke if it comes to the final hour (the amendment that Labour whipped to abtstain on) or for someone to lay out how no deal can be stopped, without reference to May doing the "right thing".
More importantly, is Mark Francois actual dwarf?
Every time he pops un on telly to say something unbelievably stupid I can only think of....
Nice attempt to blame remoaners for this farce @Turnerguy
But starting from no deal as a base is bonkers
& Economic naivety of it aside, bit hard when the brexiteers had been saying
'the day after the vote we'd hold all the cards'
'we don't need to plan for no deal because we're going to get a great deal'
'absolutely no one is talking about jeopardising our place in the single market's
'if I were negotiating Brexit my first stop wouldn't be Brussels, it would be Berlin where German CEOs would be knocking on Merkel's door demanding a deal'
The revisionism of brexiters pretending that no deal was their plan all along or that negotiating a deal was forced on them by remoaners🙄, is just cowardice: refusing to accept responsibility for the mess the brexiters have created.
We're crashing out without a deal next Friday. No question. For anything else to happen would demand a degree of competence in our politicians and for them to put the interests of themselves and their parties behind those of the country
Anyone reckon thats going to happen?
Today May has called a 5 hour cabinet meeting. The first 3 hours are a 'political' cabinet, which means that there are no civil servants present and they discuss purely political, Tory party matters.In last weeks meeting they discussed plans for a general election.
When they've done that a mere 2 hours will be dedicated to the total and utter shambles we're in.
That, more than anything, sums up where our politicians priorities are
Bull Shit!! We have other mechanisms
Calm down man! An election is the only mechanism which will be tolerated and recognised by parliament and the electorate. The reason parliament can't come to a decision is because the numbers don't work. The only way to change that is to have an election to change the parliamentary arithmetic. If May hadn't thrown away her majority and ransomed herself to the DUP we'd now be debating the finer points of trade negotiations.
An election is the only mechanism which will be tolerated and recognised by parliament and the electorate.
What an odd thing to claim.
If you mean that May would rather call an election than risk putting her approach as regards Brexit to the people directly, then I'm sure you're correct. The same is also true for Corbyn as well. But many others in parliament know why that is, don't agree, and are in favour of a referendum. As for the electorate… we know that a general election does not take the decision on Brexit away from May&Corbyn, so changes little. Now, if Watson is listened to, and Labour policy is changed to supporting a referendum on whatever a Labour government cooks up as regards brexit, then a general election becomes interesting.
But starting from no deal as a base is bonkers
why?
it gives a known baseline to work up from as oppossed to where we are now. It makes it clear the pain everyone is going to feel unless a trade deal is put in place, and let's them plan for it if one doesn't occur.
if we had have started from that position then it would be clearer what that meant now, and it would be easier to give people an option in a second referendum - revoke or take this as it's the best we could make.
it might even have worked out better for the remoaners, but as it is we are in exactly the same position of uncertainty as before.
it gives a known baseline
No, it does not.
In that, without any deals, we have no idea how any country in the world will treat us. We do not set their trade policies for them. The no deal scenario is just a world of unknowns, where we have no control or foresight of how anyone will act towards us. It is one huge unknown, with no certainty of anything. Fun for speculators, but it is not a known stable basecase which we can compare to or build up from.
An election is the only mechanism which will be tolerated and recognised by parliament and the electorate.
What an odd thing to claim.
Well this debate is all about dressing opinion up as fact.
As for your other point yes in the event of no confidence we require may to act in the national interest. Even if the likes of Ken Clark and Hammond have to drive her to the meeting and sit down with her holding the letter for her.
As for starting with no deal itbsoylds like a plan from the disaster capitalists which should be delivered to a full rendition of Rule Britania
looks like Hammond is going to table to motion
For you the public to accept the special prize of maybots deal
you couldnt actually make this shit up
eh?
Big cabinet meeting this morning… ministers will be spelling out the options to May… that is one of them (even if others want to pretend that it isn't).
If we started at no deal, surely the car manufacturers wouldve just started packing u on day 1?
as it stands I cant see them not starting to wind back production soon
Sorry @ferals
looks like he is going to table a motion for a referendum for the people of the UK to decide if maybots special prize is worthy or not
best get a wriggle in before next week
bloody phone doesn't seem to work with popups appearing all over
I still do not understand how a second referendum is undemocratic. Surely it is the very essence of democracy.
It's not, that's the problem with 'alternative facts' politics. If you don't like something, you just keep saying the opposite when you're uninterrupted and refuse to answer direct questions if it's a two-way conversation.
Worse still Leaver members of the public don't believe it either, but few will admit it.
it gives a known baseline to work up from as oppossed to where we are now. It makes it clear the pain everyone is going to feel unless a trade deal is put in place, and let’s them plan for it if one doesn’t occur.
This would only make sense if the original referendum had been sold as exit with no deal unless we negotiate something better - it wasn't, it was sold as a completely unrealistic ideal of the UK picking and choosing what we'd want and the EU just accepting it. Unfortunately a large proportion of the 17.4m were gullible enough to believe it.
As for the mess we're in now, the only way I can see avoiding no deal is for May to drop trying to get her deal through and support a second referendum (possibly with her deal as an option, but it can only be a two option referendum without causing chaos). I haven't seen any evidence she's going to do that though, she seems to have dug her heels in to such an extent she'd rather crash out with a no deal and let someone else pick up the pieces than risk being seen to change her stance at this late hour.
cheers @mickmcd, I figured that was what you meant, but couldn't see anything in the news when i looked briefly.
looks like he is going to table a motion for a referendum for the people of the UK to decide if maybots special prize is worthy or not
best get a wriggle in before next week
Got a source for that??
Sounds like a favourable outcome, I do keep coming across remainers who seem to have given up but I hope with the chance of revoke on the table they could whip some decent support for it.
We’re crashing out without a deal next Friday. No question. For anything else to happen would demand a degree of competence in our politicians and for them to put the interests of themselves and their parties behind those of the country
Anyone reckon thats going to happen?
I'm not brave enough to say 'not a chance' but it's unlikely. We have a motion in place to avoid it.
There's only a few members of the right of the Tories who want it.
Given the hard choice between revoke, or hard brexit - the house will fall on revoke and blame each other for stealing Brexit, May will likely take the brunt of it.
I think, on balance, in my completely unprofessional view we're looking at a long delay with either Ref2 or GE, although I still can't understand why the Tories would go for an GE unless they're going to deselect the ERG.
We have a motion in place to avoid it.
Labour whipped to abstain on the motion… that one is dying.
There’s only a few members of the right of the Tories who want it.
170 Tory MPs signed a ridiculous letter saying we must leave soon come what may, and arguing against a long extension.
Just because most MPs across the house are against no deal, do not assume that most Tories are. And, ultimately, May is party first, country second.
(Edit: Parliament third?)
It makes it clear the pain everyone is going to feel unless a trade deal is put in place
Pain? What pain? Where's my unicorn?
I still can’t understand why the Tories would go for an GE unless they’re going to deselect the ERG.
https://twitter.com/HuffPostUKPol/status/1113017476634349574
It does really depend who is in charge doesn't it. It would confirm quite how delusional some of the ERG are that they think they could either force no deal via it or come back with a sweeping majority behind BoJo or Davis and enact the Brexit some idiot called David failed to negotiate last time
The Tory Membership are gagging for no deal, they believe the BS of Davis & co (despite the obvious contradictions & failure to deliver what they said pre-ref)
I think the Tpry MPs are idiotic enough to make it happen
(civil servants are busy writing letters now to show the future inquiry that they advised this was a really bad idea)
Did anyone hear DD interviewed on Radio 4 this morning. He sounded so delusional, like a resident of Sleepy Meadows home for the terminally bewildered, who'd been on the sherry a bit early
'come along now Mr Davis.... time for your medication.....'
No, it does not.In that, without any deals, we have no idea how any country in the world will treat us. We do not set their trade policies for them. The no deal scenario is just a world of unknowns, where we have no control or foresight of how anyone will act towards us.
err, it isn't - we start with WTO - that's what it is for.
If we started at no deal, surely the car manufacturers wouldve just started packing u on day 1?
that is the pain - we know what the costs of the tarriffs would be and the impact and so we enter into negotiations to minimise the impact. That's like trade deals the world over.
err, it isn’t – we start with WTO – that’s what it is for.
You've drunk the Kool-Aid. Read more about what WTO is… I suggest avoiding UK focused sources of information.
as it stands I cant see them not starting to wind back production soon
as would be likely if their country gained a free-trade agreement with the EU direct - oh look - that's happened, and look what Honda are doing...
why build cars here, with low-productivity british workers, when they could build more reliable cars back home?
that is the pain – we know what the costs of the tarriffs would be and the impact and so we enter into negotiations to minimise the impact. That’s like trade deals the world over.
yes and the average FTA takes 7 years to negotiate & is 100s of pages long (TTIP was 15000 before it was ditched, CETA 3500)
Its just taken our MPs 3 years to not agree a 500page Withdrawl Agreement that is considerable less complex than an FTA
and our priority would be the one with the EU- 50% of our trade, the EU that we'd just really really pissed off
meanwhile UK manufacturing & farming would be at the mercy of every nation having complete leverage over us
how naive are you to think that this is an option that doesnt see the UK in the same political black hole for the next 10, 20 years?
Oh ffs we did this months ago! WTO needs a hard border and controls in NI, the Good Friday Agreement precludes this. Square that circle.
And a50 should not have been triggered until a solution for the border had been found.
So that would be never then. Only way is to maintain regulatory and customs alignment with RoI, inc. FoM
You’ve drunk the Kool-Aid. Read more about what WTO is…
it is about trade, not about trade and politics which is what the EU is.
Maybe if it had stuck to trade then there wouldn't have been this problem.
we start with WTO
TurnerGuy, do you know exactly how WTO tariffs and rules will affect your business?
as would be likely if their country gained a free-trade agreement with the EU direct – oh look – that’s happened, and look what Honda are doing…
and you cant pretend that Brexit wasnt a factor in their decision either
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45558424
good dismantling of the WTO fantasy here
There was an hilarious interview on Radio four last week - I think it was a town somewhere in the North of England. One of those things where they get quite literally a "man on the street" to say how he would resolve things.
It was all quite simple. Scotland want their independence (er, not all of them) and voted to remain (again, more, but not all of them), so all the remainers should move to Scotland, give them their independence and the rest of us can leave Europe No Deal. Job done !
The interviewer didn't press him on where these 16 million odd people were going to live, or that this would be one of the biggest movements of people since WW2 or the partition of India, but who needs to let things like practicality and facts get in the way. Perhaps if somebody figured out how to combine London and Scotland in some kind of Berlin Airlift type arrangement it could just work.
We’re crashing out without a deal next Friday. No question
That's not a fact yet.
Don't forget we were crashing out last week too.
Maybe if it had stuck to trade then there wouldn’t have been this problem.
I not certain you can separate politics and trade. Let anyone sell anything to whoever? Child sized leg-irons to the Saudis? GM chicken? Cheddar from Newcastle?
‘come along now Mr Davis…. time for your medication…..’
I suspect he had already had his medication and it came in liquid form out of a bottle. He is a known drunkard
WTO
If we have a "no tariff " border on the island of ireland then we have to offer tarrif free trade to everyone else. This of course means an utter disaster for UK manufacturing and agriculture
I blame Ghandi, he started it!
It was always about politics, the main mission was to secure a lasting peace in post war Europe. The lie that it was about trade and wandered from that mission into politics is just revisionist bollocks.
The interviewer didn’t press him on where these 16 million odd people were going to live, or that this would be one of the biggest movements of people since WW2 or the partition of India, but who needs to let things like practicality and facts get in the way. Perhaps if somebody figured out how to combine London and Scotland in some kind of Berlin Airlift type arrangement it could just work.
I dont think refugees leaving england will be the problem
whatever way brexit pans out I can see the next referendum being on Irish reunification & the DUP have blown up so much goodwill, while the UK parliament has demonstrated itself to be uttery incompetenet that I think reunification is happening sooner
when it does we will be dealing with an influx of NI citizens, who would surely be granted UK citizenship if desired from one of the poorest parts of Britain, into the rUK, with all the dissatisfaction & sectarian legacy that will bring
Well, that was another funny quote I heard on Radio four - one the the DUP ministers seriously saying that the best solution all around would be if the Republic of Ireland also left the EU. Where to start with that one !!?!??!
Pinch of salt time… but anyone relying on May making a last minute decision "in the interests of the country" really need to have another think…
https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1113037778407829505?s=21
…parliament needs to put measures in place to stop this. And by Parliament, I mean Labour. Look at the voting figures for the Cherry amendment in the indicative votes. Why did Labour whip to abstain on this? I think I know why, but don't want the Corbyn believers doing their bore off thing on me, so someone else can state the obvious. The Labour leadership need to rethink, if they get another chance. Parliament should seek to be able to stop Brexit and revoke at the final hour, if all else has failed.
Why did Labour whip to abstain on this?
Because of optics, as has been the case for a long time. Labour cannot whip to revoke Brexit for now (might be a possibility at the very last minute) because they will immediately by branded Traitors, Betrayers Of The Will Of The People, etc. If labour do whip to revoke A50 it'll be at the very last minute, under the guise of "the Conservatives ruined your Brexit, sorry".
Just FTR - even if Labour had whipped to support and managed to get all their MPs to vote in favour (including Hoey etc) the motion still would have failed - it was the most heavily defeated of the four. Have you considered that parties other than labour should move their position (e.g if SNP supported the CU option that would have passed easily)...
Labour cannot whip to revoke Brexit for now (might be a possibility at the very last minute)
The amendment was to enable exactly this, ie at the last minute parliament would get to vote to revoke rather than leave with no deal. It was NOT an amendment that stops Brexit, it was to enable parliament to do so in the final hours if all else fails. Labour abstained to allow the government alone to keep this power.
even if Labour had whipped to support and managed to get all their MPs to vote in favour (including Hoey etc) the motion still would have failed
That is simply wrong. The vote was "lost" by 101 votes, 104 Labour MPs abstained (as per whip) and 18 voted against (and probably would no matter what as it happens). So would have been hard to get a win, but if Labour did whip in favour, and did get their members to vote in favour, it would have been won. That wouldn't have been the case though, no whip will come close to 100% on any of this stuff, so the vote could have been very tight.
Why did Labour whip to abstain on this?
I gave an answer to this last night. Labour are pitching themselves as the compromise party seeking unity between leavers and remainers. They can't do this if they threaten leavers with revocation. There will be other ways to prevent no deal as a last resort, either through a parliamentary vote specifically preventing it and directing the PM to ask for another extension in order to have another referendum, or through a no confidence vote and subsequent election.
Have you considered that parties other than labour should move their position (e.g if SNP supported the CU option that would have passed easily)
Don't be daft, that would disrupt the anti-Corbyn hysteria on here with actual reality.
It was NOT an amendment that stops Brexit
Entirely true, but that's not how the Mail etc would report it. Just look at how they've tried to make an example of Bercow for "blocking Brexit" when he's just exercising standard parliamentary process.
That is simply wrong.
Argh - you are entirely correct. I misread the infographic for voting numbers - apologies 🙁
EDIT: this infographic - https://twitter.com/paul1kirby/status/1112840273116229642
According to BBC lunchtime news just now these are the choices:
1. No deal
2. Revoke Article 50
3. Delay for a period of time (1 or 2 years if possible) or longer ...
I think I know the choice they are going for to prevent Brexit. 🤔
So Labour abstains on taking the power away from a Tory government to deliver no deal… and you useless idiots bang on about the Daily Mail, the SNP, and "seeking a compromise".
I apologise for the insults, but this double speak is nuts… the Labour Party strengthening May's hand, at this late stage, is maddening.
Labour are pitching themselves as the compromise party seeking unity between leavers and remainers.
I'm afraid, from my perspective, they're making a really bad job of this...
No deal would be catastrophic for the country and most importantly to May for the tories. For that reason I don't see it happening. Its tory party first for her and although a poor politician she is smart enough to know that a catastrophic no deal would be blamed on her and the Tories and would also split the party
toss up between a second ref and a GE both with a long extension. Second ref my be tacked onto Mays deal - so vote for Mays deal with a confirmatory ref.
Playing chicken with May and her party, by voting for her to keep the power to deliver no deal, is nuts.
A delay is most likely, but if that doesn't happen, and May then does what most of her party want… well that is not some impossible scenario that can be ignored and allowed to happen just because some in Labour want Brexit at any cost.
NI citizens, who would surely be granted UK citizenship if desired
NI is part of the UK, so they already have UK citizenship.
Apart from those who are Irish citizens, of course.
NI is part of the UK, so they already have UK citizenship.
yeah, thats obvious now you say it! my meaning was that UK government would be obliged to resettle them in uk?
No, it's not obvious. It's as if the GFA never happened, isn't it - people still don't get this stuff. If you're from NI, you can be British, Irish, or both.
maybe we should build a wall
rmain one side leave on the other
and argue who will pay for it
Hadrians wall?
So Labour abstains on taking the power away from a Tory government to deliver no deal
Labour is in a deep poo poo at the moment (same can be said of Tory govt). If they don't play their cards well Labour/Tory will be decimated in the next election and may never be a party again. They do know many of their supporters are Leavers don't they. 🤔
toss up between a second ref and a GE both with a long extension. Second ref my be tacked onto Mays deal – so vote for Mays deal with a confirmatory ref.
The idea is to force a second GE to hijack the the 1st ref for a second ref. The long extension is just a hope that people will forget what they are there for. Play the card wrongly and you will see a rise in "nationalism", the wrong type.
Alternatively, Scotland can have their independence and be part of EU, while half of the population(remainders) migrate to Scotland which is close to "home". 😀
Or go for true option of No Deal and rebuild the country again ... hard it may sound but it is for the long term good.
It's in a bit of a delapidated state no?
You could use it as a hard border I mean if you don't want to be in Europe go live top side of the wall , you would still be in engerland the rest could just carry on as if nowt had happened
much cures all the issues except people would moan they have to move and their 5 bed might be downgraded to a 2 bed terrace Win win with a bit of compromise
pretty sure they did something similar in Germany
Question for remainers: if we leave without a deal, and you could (this is hypothetical obvs) would you move to an EU country?
I would.
Playing chicken with May and her party, by voting for her to keep the power to deliver no deal, is nuts.
You do realise don't you that labour don't have enough votes to force through an amendment removing her power for no deal? Once again, you're coming from the fictional view that labour has a magic stop brexit button. They're not playing chicken, they would be playing russian roulette. The only way to gain the power you so desperately want them to exercise, is for them to win an election, yet for some reason you seem to be against that, which is very strange.
Just go for No Deal then slowly negotiate the way aroud whatever both wishes (EU & UK), coz nothing is cast in stone.
It is Not as if EU is going to be the silly not to negotiate even after No Deal.
You do realise don’t you that labour don’t have enough votes to force through an amendment removing her power for no deal?
well they probably could if they could stop their own MPs (including shadow cabinet) from disobeying their whip!
I'm quite keen on the partition idea just so long as we can build a bloody big wall between the sensible and "Wetherspoonland".
Molgrips - me too.
One thing that has astounded me throughout this whole thing has been either the total ignorance of Irish History and politics by the Brexiteers, or the fact they genuinely just don't GAF about the Good Friday Agreement, and the very real threat of Ireland returning to the troubles.
The Irish Times has been a good read throughout this whole shitstorm, giving a non-english perspective. Last week they nailed it by saying that from a symbolic perspective, a hard border in Ireland would send out the same message as rebuilding the Berlin Wall.
I just don't think those advocating a hard brexit/no deal (and thus a hard border) get this at all. Mainly because they're not interested or they simply just don't care. Everything is 'a price worth paying' to them
Obviously they won't be paying any of the price, but that’s just detail
Question for remainers: if we leave without a deal, and you could (this is hypothetical obvs) would you move to an EU country?
Not yet.
Our families and friends are all still in UK - we're too embedded generally. I think our jobs are Brexit-proof, we like our neighbourhood, etc etc.
I'm an EU citizen anyway (just need to get the passport) - so it might be doable for us, but it would have to be pretty bad for us to leave our aging parents, quit our jobs, and disappear out of our nieces and nephews lives for a few years.
I have called the wall the great north south divide.
which might not work actually maybe we need rich and poor areas....oh shit
chewkw
(I know I shouldn't feed the troll) but you need to know this.
Europe will negotiate after no deal.
But I wonder what the starting point will be? Hmmmmmm.
From the Telegraph Brexit correspondent
HERE
Barnier today stressing that no deal isn't the end of the process. If/when the UK comes back to table after several months of turmoil, £39bn citizens rights and Irish backstop will be price of admission. Back to where we started, in an even weaker negotiating position.
Thats where no deal puts us. Right back here but in a much weaker and desperate state suffering massive economic damage every day.
Nice plan.
Question for remainers: if we leave without a deal, and you could (this is hypothetical obvs) would you move to an EU country?
I would.
Yes I would, its called Scotland.