[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

It's really frustrating. I'm naturally an internationalist/pro european person but this particular EU is shit frankly. So it's more or less deciding which option I dislike less.

I think a couple of folks have said it already but the greek crisis basically said to me the EU is ****ed. Not the euro, not the parliament, but the entire game

Very true, which is why I feel so frustrated by the current false debate. Cameron's reforms (to scratch a broken record further) are a complete sideshow. The idea of a June/July referendum is totally absurd as we have no real idea on what we are saying yes/no to.

It is breath-taking dishonesty to suggest otherwise.

Merkel is the arch compromiser/pragmatist and he attitude towards the UK lends some support to Jamba's view (roughly) on we all need each other. We do, and/but as we see now, we must do everything we can to avoid protectionism and isolationism. History tells us the folly of such approaches but the hyperbole around migrants shows how dangerous a threat that is.

All a buggers muddle. |But we should wait for the genuine questions:

1. Which countries are ready and able to from a monetary, fiscal and political union (and possibly share a common currency? [its not the current lot BTW]
2. Of those, who wants to?
3. For the rest, how do you want to interact with the core, with each other and with the RoW?

IMO - there is a very small number that qualify for (1), even if we do we (2) don't want to, so it comes down to (3)

Unfortunately, the EU prefers to kick cans down the road (as Greece/EU banks and their NPLs etc illustrate only too well). so when will we be bale to have a proper referendum with a sensible question?

The answer - manana, demain, tomorrow....

In.

On cue, see that FR and De calling for greater fiscal union and common Treasury this morning. They are correct and it works for THEM.

Some of you do have a very low opinion of British people to take charge of their own destiny don't you?

You would rather prefer to relinquish your own independence to bunch of bureaucrats than to govern independently. There are some very strong self interests here partly because many have connection to Europe mainland in whatever forms ...

I will also see tactical voting from the North i.e. Scotland, with majority voting In to spike (IMO) the South, Scots' traditional foe, but if they do so then the Scots are merely exchanging one foe for another. Coz they will still be dictated too but this time by the bunch of bureaucrats much more further and much more difficult to deal with.

[b]To the Scottish people [/b]... (assuming that you achieve your goal of independence under the UK full EU membership) if you vote In then you will have no much control over your own destiny and will be at the mercy of a gigantic bureaucratic machine. You think the South is difficult to deal with wait till you have to deal with a machine. You can scream and cry but the machine will not be deterred and you will just be another resources to be consumed.

I see you coming and I tell you so ... obvious is obvious. 😯

the greek crisis basically said to me the EU is ****ed. Not the euro, not the parliament, but the entire game

Hmm - but what's the alternative?

a) Give up on the whole idea of cooperation
b) Chuck it out and start again, from scratch
c) Sort out the problems with the current EU

It would be interesting indeed if options b and c were on the table.

wait till you have to deal with a machine. You can scream and cry but the machine will not be deterred and you will just be another resources to be consumed.

You are Kyle Reese and I claim my five pounds.

from a monetary, fiscal and political union (and possibly share a common currency?

perchypanther - Member

wait till you have to deal with a machine. You can scream and cry but the machine will not be deterred and you will just be another resources to be consumed.

You are Kyle Reese and I claim my five pounds.

Nope.

I am ... [b]Karl Emil Maximilian "Max" Weber ... The god of bureaucracy[/b]. 😆

Give me me fiver!
I say ... Give me! 😛

Edit: You lot are hallucinating about the utopia of becoming full member of a larger entity, economy prosperity, advancement, scientific mind, rationality, etc ... [b]you CANNOT escape Weber[/b].

Try as you will there is no escaping and your lack of understanding the very basic means you are heading for full hallucinating utopia. Just don't cry when you reach there ... 😯

[b][u]I challenge anyone and everyone, the brighter you are the better, in this world to dispute Max Weber. [/u][/b]

molgrips - Member

Hmm - but what's the alternative?

Well, [i]I'm[/i] going to invade Poland.

looks like we'll be paying [url= http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/eu-referendum-bank-england-builds-98bn-brexit-war-chest-defend-pound-1542482 ]20% more for our groupsets in the event of a brexit[/url] though the rate of decline vs the euro in the last [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/13/three_month.stm ]3 months you'd thought the markets think it's a forgone conclusion[/url]. Though the Banks record on defending the pound is not the greatest just ask ol' Norm.

Unintentionally, Norm played a blinder. Great boost to UK economy not having an uncompetitive exchange rate to defend. Not that it felt like that at the time!!

I'm as yet undecided as I can see a valid argument for both staying and leaving.

However, I honestly don't thing the UK will ever leave the EU whatever the result. I cant help but think that a "Leave" vote will simply result in being offered a few more "concessions", followed by another vote until we vote to stay in. Basically the same as with the Lisbon Treaty if I remember correctly.

Are there actual instances where EU decision making has been different to what the UK could or should have done on its own?

I honestly don't thing the UK will ever leave the EU whatever the result

I honestly dont see why anyone thinks this will happen.

I will probably vote to stay but I will be campaigning to make sure we leave if that is what the people will - you cannot ignore democracy because you dislike a legitimate outcome.

DO you really think the tories will be elected back in if they ignore this?Not a chance so it will not happen. TBH the PM would stand no chance in parliament if he tried this never mind an election.

However, I honestly don't thing the UK will ever leave the EU whatever the result.

This.

I heard this view on This Week a while back and the more I think about it the more obvious it seems.

Leaving requires agreement between us and Europe on a myriad of topics to enable us to function normally on day 1 after we leave - its not going to happen overnight.

I see no reason why we'd not go into a perpetual state of arranging the 'leaving' and then at some point another referendum gets a different result.

What possible reason would either side to offer compromises to help the UK leave speedily?

I honestly don't thing the UK will ever leave the EU whatever the result

Scenario. Paris type of attack one week before the election (destabilizing Europe is high on IS wish list) UK voters vote out this presages the break up of the EU with Greece also forced out this year over the Immigration issue .

hmm sounds possible.

Norm played a blinder

george played the blinder, norm was a gormless bystander.

I don't bother wasting time thinking about it - I can't influence the outcome anyway, I'll just have to suffer the consequences.

Interesting that the "debate" in the media is pretty much glossing over the effect a brexit will have on our Agricultural Industry, (and given how much time most of us spend in the countryside, on here as well) Farm subsidies from the EU was £3.7 billion last year that we'd have to find ourselves, and I can't think for a minute that a country like France (for instance) wouldn't leap at the chance to secure less favourable terms of trade for our farmed goods. Tiny part of our GDP for sure, but would be an enormous change to thousands of families, and the country side we all enjoy.

I don't think for a minute that it will change the argument much, but I could certainly see a future of more expensive food prices if we leave.

What possible reason would either side to offer compromises to help the UK leave speedily?

Farm subsidies from the EU was £3.7 billion last year that we'd have to find ourselves,

you understand the concept of being a net contributor?

we pay about £18 billion in, and get about £8-9 billion back (including the £3.7 billion we would have to 'find')

Oh. And ps. If it wasn't for Thatcher securing the UK rebate, we would only be getting about half that sum back....

Can anyone answer this?

Are there actual instances where EU decision making has been different to what the UK could or should have done on its own?

Or is it just about the money?

[i]Farm subsidies from the EU was £3.7 billion last year that we'd have to find ourselves,[/i]

Or not.

http://farmsubsidy.openspending.org/GB/2013/

Top earner in 2013, National Trust...

While I'm an 'In', farm subsidies are a whole (global) farce that need sorting out and worthy of their own post - and nothing to do with Europe really.

Thank you one and all, I'm on the fence and appreciate ALL of your input.

As usual Northwind has managed to cut to the chase, I think.

Are there actual instances where EU decision making has been different to what the UK could or should have done on its own?

If the EU is doing exactly what the UK would do without them then there would be no clamour to leave as it would be just like what we would di
I dont even understand why you would make it or what you are fishing for

Yes the EU does things we would not - do you think we would have the open immigration policy we do now without the EU would we have the "generous benefits" to foreigners were we not in the EU?this is what our govt wants to do and they wont change anything when we leave?
It got ignored because the answer is blindingly obvious.

TBH this was such a daft question

Why was it daft?

I'm trying to establish how much of the 'leave' is simply scaremongering or jingoism about sovereignty.

It got ignored because the answer is blindingly obvious.

No need to be so offensive about it - it was a genuine question and relevant. Immigration is a good one - any more?

Anyone change their mind after watching Simon Reeves Greece programme the other day?
Me?
Not really.

Perfectly sensible question mol. There is a heavy dose of nonsense on sovereignty as there is on subjugation. Best to ignore either extreme.

It is amusing though when the founding fathers abuse/adopt EU policies as they see fit - see deficit spending and immigration.

"We support the free movement of people until its inconvenient to do so..." 😉

Some of you do have a very low opinion of British [s]people[/s]management to take charge of their own destiny don't you?

Perfectly sensible question mol

Its reasonable to ask what the differences are its not reasonable to ask if there are any differences.

I will be amazed if you can find anyone [ credible[ who wishes to argue membership means we got exactly what the UK wanted in all areas from the EU.

Its not a good question

In, with some reservations.

I don't have the information or the nous in economics etc. to really make an informed decision - like most people I suspect. But intuitively I reckon the UK is pretty closely coupled with Europe anyway and in that case it's better to be on the inside, than on the outside looking in.
On the other hand, I've got doubts about how sustainable the whole thing if some of the members (e.g. Greece) are much weaker than the rest.

Its reasonable to ask what the differences are its not reasonable to ask if there are any differences.

Ok well I considered the two things to be the same, apologies if it was not clear.

I meant - what are the differences?

who wishes to argue membership means we got exactly what the UK wanted in all areas from the EU

That's not quite the same thing.

Be interested to hear from anyone over in Europe what the general feeling towards the whole in/out thing is over there? Is it even getting much coverage on the news outside of the UK?

My Spanish family are basically "WTF is your man blathering about? There's serious work to be done, let the grownups get on with it". Though apparently all the english ex-pats are dead patriotic and want to leave the EU, which I love.

I don't have the information or the nous in economics etc. to really make an informed decision

You're barking up the wrong tree, all you need is a suspicion/dislike of foreigners and believe that we're better than everyone else and should go back to the days of the empire, Churchill, stiffer upper lip etc...

So figures released today show in 2015 the UK bought £89 billion (not tje 60 I'd seen quoted before) more in goods and services from the jEU than they did from us. How people can even remotely believe the EU would impose trade tariffs and barriers on an independent UK I will never understand.

The EU has numerous boiler-plate free trade agreements it can call on, such agreements already exist with numerous other countries and trading blocks.

@binners Vote Leave is not UKIP

Scotland cannot unilaterally leave the UK, if Alex and thr SNP thoight that was viable they would have gone down tjat route already. With oil at below $30 independence is clear financial suicide. The Scots understand that.

Junky I really thought this EU refernedum would be a chance for you to be on tje winning side in a debate with me but now I am not so sure, a Leave win looks increasingly on the cards. You're going to have to wait a bit longer it seems

How people can even remotely believe the EU would impose trade tariffs and barriers on an independent UK I will never understand.

At the moment, that is the case. But take the long view. Let's assume that in ten or twenty years time political and economic conditions have changed and that trade flow reverses? They could easily start imposing barriers.

Long view, Jam.

Significant trade barriers remain inside the EU, so easy to imagine anything

Plus what is TTIP all about if not the requirement to negotiate (in secret!) terms of trade between major trading partners?

Do tariffs exist between US and EU? If so, why, based on logic above?

Jambalaya - one word of caution there is that, frankly, all trade figures (bandied around by either side) are utter b***ocks because of the Rotterdam effect.

How people can even remotely believe the EU would impose trade tariffs and barriers on an independent UK I will never understand.

How people believe we can leave a free trade area that we positively contribute , after they just changed the rules to get us to stay, and think nothing at all will change is the bit I dont understand. Why will we be able to negotiate what no other european country has managed?FFS we cannot even get what we want when we sit at the table with them.

You're going to have to wait a bit longer it seems

I am about to quote the CBI YIKES 😯

Imagine me agreeing with the CBO and you disagreeing with them

FWIW i dont think its the critical argument as many will make emotive issue re sovereignty - that is there choice and right- but its pretty obvious business and trade will be negatively affected and no change/impact is up there with shared currency in likelihood of happening. You are AS and THM will be giving you hell 😉

Full details [url= http://news.cbi.org.uk/business-issues/uk-and-the-european-union/choosing-our-future/alternatives/ ]here[/url]

Being like Switzerland means limited access to the EU single market only and where we comply with EU rules
Being like Norway means following European Union rules but having no say
Being like Turkey would leave us with no influence in the EU or in global trade deals
Working through the World Trade Organization would mean the return of tariffs and taxes on trade
Even a special UK-EU Free Trade Agreement would put trade at risk and reduce our influence over the rules

Martin Wolf has its pretty much nailed in the FT today on why its in all sides interests for UK to remain in the UK, on why CMD recent adventure is largely irrelevant and why arguments on EU bureaucracy are largely flawed.

EU membership is not at the root of our economic challenges however much various leave, out, Xenokip players will try to pretend that it is.

The odd thing though is the recognition - coming from Tusk no less - that the UK (yes the UK) is not committed to further integration (no shit Sherlock), while ignoring that is exactly that is/needs to happen for the grander EU project to succeed.

Give that can a big kick Donald!!!

its in all sides interests for UK to remain in the UK

I think, prepare yourself, you are right

The real issue now and if we vote to stay in is that our current position of "reluctant on the sidelines" is unworkable in the long run as closer integration is inevitable especially for the Euro zone.

I suspect most YEs voters will argue its this far and no further but that seems as unlikely to happen as leaving wont affect trade arguiment,

The real issue now and if we vote to stay in is that our current position of "reluctant on the sidelines" is unworkable in the long run as closer integration is inevitable especially for the Euro zone.

Of course it is. Anyone who resists closer integration are at best analagous to people in the 19th century smashing up spinning machines, and at worst are bitter and paranoid isolationists who would rather return to a world where divisions between class, nations, and culture define our existence and where we settle our differences by killing large numbers of people in stupid wars.

Anyone who resists closer integration are at best analagous to people in the 19th century smashing up spinning machines, and at worst are bitter and paranoid isolationists

Not at all. The €-area does not fulfil the necessary criteria to be a common currency area. So there is a basic lie at the hearts of the € project. But that doesn't mean that it will be abandoned, at least not in its entirety. However, to have any chance of survival closer political and fiscal integration is required. Quite sensibly we have/are/will resist that trend. That is a perfectly rational position.

That does not preclude a pro-European position in terms of its original intentions eg, the basic freedoms. They are also perfectly rationale.

But we have a bloody mess at the moment, with the € project flawed and the basic premises that support the original concept ignored when appropriate. All very odd.

Still better than the position a century ago!

Janan Ganash wrote a good article in the FT earlier in the week. He made the point that our pragmatic, rather than the emotional, approach has meant we had adopted a lot of the good stuff but avoided the pitfalls. He also made the point, which TMH has been making, that it is too early for a referendum, as we will only know what we are really signed up to when they resolve the Euro's structural issues.