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nearly £1tn moved out of the city
and Dublin doing very well out of that!
https://newfinancial.org/the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-city/
nearly £1tn moved out of the city
I think you will find nobody has moved, nothing has moved, well only the idiots who don't want to make more money, they know there will be no impact though so nothing has left......
The wit and wisdom of Esther McVey
has anyone seen the comment on that article? 😆
With all the banking activity happening elsewhere, how much tax take will the UK lose?
I'm betting it makes the "magic bus NHS money" figure look like walking-around-change.
how much tax take will the UK lose?
I saw the figure of 1% of the total take quoted. Could have paid for quite a few hospitals, I'd bet.
Estimate is 1% drop in total tax revenue, just due to funds already announced to be leaving the UK.
6 billion then.
My mistake, bus money was 20 billion.
Nice to see the alternative universe of the Brexiteers is alive and well and as detached from reality as ever
Iain Duncan Smith was on radio 4 this afternoon saying that May is flying to Strasbourg later where the EU will cave in to UK demands on the backstop, then May will return victorious and her deal will be passed in parliament tomorrow
Just spotted this on Facebook, no idea of its credibility.
BREAKING: Theresa May seeking #Brexit delay until 24 May - reports, to be confirmed.
If she gets a delay agreed with the eu I reckon that'll be tomorrow's vote in Parliament, so she avoids defeat of her deal and boots the can waaay down the road. Doesn't actually solve anything for businesses who are trying to plan a route through this "bit of a mess" but saves her job, so that's OK then.
Just heard a report on the radio that said she might of got the EU to give some ground so may win tomorrow’s vote.n
I just saw this on the Beeb page - "Cabinet minister tells me on Theresa May’s #Brexit negotiations in Strasbourg: It’s not looking good".
BREAKING: Theresa May seeking #Brexit delay until 24 May – reports, to be confirmed.
Saw this the other day in Guardian-
Even some of May’s supporters are now only trying to get her over the line of “Gordon Brown Day” – 28 May – the point at which she will have served for prime minister longer than her Labour predecessor.
Just heard a report on the radio that said she might of got the EU to give some ground so may win tomorrow’s vote.n
This being after the news quiz reported an aide got her to say simples and won the bet getting a fancy day out from it. Next up see if we can recreate famous historical moments
I'd also suggest it's not a bad time to register some opinions 🙂
https://yougov.co.uk/
It's interesting to see what questions people are asking, social mobility was todays topic of choice
Brexit surveys are fairly common and the only way our views are being heard at the moment
“It is difficult to give a helping hand to people who stand with both hands in their pockets,”
Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Danish PM, or for those of you who watched Borgen, Danmarks statsminister. 😀
think you'll find we have a pair of stumps our hands were cut off in a fit of pique with big red cleaver
The Beeb is adamant the EU have zero intention of blinking. Zero.
They see this totally as a UK problem now....
That they are being asked to sort out. Completely irrational, you have to agree.
May.... Delay.... May.... Delay....
The EU, which we are a big part of, that EU.
We'll I never.
Easy deals.
So no changes to the WA
But a 'legally binding' joint statement, hmmm not sure that's going to pass Cox's Tests
It's been fudged. It's the same but different.
What a surprise.Lol
What a joke.
Would it be too much to ask the head of our country to stop pissing about?
Obviously the answer is yes.
Just before I go to bed....
DUP haven't said an outright no to the deal... They are going to "scrutinise it".
One Brexiteer has also said he will vote for the deal.
Can't be ssked to go find his name, it's on the Beeb.... He's a bit of an unknown. Not one of the big named loons Brexiteers.
DUP haven’t said an outright no to the deal… They are going to “scrutinise it”.
One Brexiteer has also said he will vote for the deal.
The last thing the DUP want is to collapse the Govt. They have disproportionate influence at the moment and a magic money tree. So this may just be enough to allow them to support it.
This seems to be the crucial change, an arbitration panel whose findings must be adhered to. I think 🤔
Under the dispute settlement mechanism, a ruling by the arbitration panel that a party acts
with the objective of applying the Protocol indefinitely would be binding on the Union and the
United Kingdom. Persistent failure by a party to comply with a ruling, and thus persistent
failure by that party to return to compliance with its obligations under the Withdrawal
Agreement, may result in temporary remedies. Ultimately, the aggrieved party would have the
right to enact a unilateral, proportionate suspension of its obligations under the Withdrawal
Agreement (other than Part Two), including the Protocol. Such a suspension may remain in
place unless and until the offending party has taken the necessary measures to comply with
the ruling of the arbitration panel.
B. IN RELATION TO SAFEGUARDS FOR NORTHERN IRELAND
Text from a Tweet Thread last night (David Allen Green who is worth a follow).
You cannot have a "unilateral" interpretation of a bilateral text. It makes no sense. It is meaningless. It is illogical. It is oxymoronic. It is moronic. And it certainly is *not* "legally binding".
A "best endeavours" provision in any legal instrument is so limp as to be almost meaningless. And such provisions are almost impossible to practically enforce, and even to evidence a breach. Not "legally binding" in any significant way.
And let this be put in plain terms. The draft Withdrawal Agreement has *not* been reopened. Everything this evening is mere paraphernalia, gimmickry. A sticking plaster, some lipstick, a new year's resolution. Nothing "legally binding" in any meaningful sense.
this may be true (IANAL) but facts have long since left the building. If facts were the guiding principle this would have been in the round filing cabinet long ago.
The only relevant question is whether this 'concession' provides sufficient people with a sufficiently set of shonky steps that they can use to climb down from their previous position, and vote for the deal and so keep their grip on power together.
And I'm concerned that it may be, if Cox comes back and says it's OK. They are looking for a reason and if they can fall back on someone else's 'expert' advice at that point - hell; it's off their conscience.
Don't feel comfortable at all......
Chances of the 'meaningful vote' actually taking place today?
Zero?
Shall we have a sweep on what time it gets pulled?
I'll go for 12.30
What do you reckon?
has anyone seen the comment on that article? 😆
Shows what we're up against...you click through to the facebooks of some of those credulous loons and you'll find them reposting that article as news and various other folk falling for it.
We are in an era where satire is as believable as the truth.
this may be true (IANAL) but facts have long since left the building. If facts were the guiding principle this would have been in the round filing cabinet long ago.
The only relevant question is whether this ‘concession’ provides sufficient people with a sufficiently set of shonky steps that they can use to climb down from their previous position, and vote for the deal and so keep their grip on power together.
And I’m concerned that it may be, if Cox comes back and says it’s OK. They are looking for a reason and if they can fall back on someone else’s ‘expert’ advice at that point – hell; it’s off their conscience.
Don’t feel comfortable at all……
Agree. How late can ammendments be put in place because I think the second referendum lot may have lost there oppurtunity. I think the Kyle-wislon ammendemtn needs to go in now to be voted on today.
If Mays deal goes through how much will our day to day lives change?
Can we still buy bike bits from ze germans, will my chocolates be tariff free?
Will there be queues at the ports, food prices going up, mainlanders being deported?
Would airbus and the car factories stay?
Would retiring to the sun still be an option?
The only meaningful vote that should be happening is to get rid of both labour and the cons , I wonder if no leadership whatsoever would be better than the shower of shit running the spot right now
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105239804831248385?s=19
Starmer dismantled the new statements within a few minutes of seeing the text.- as well as being non binding flim flam, May's promise to get the WA re-opened after her last defeat has quite obviously been broken, as Starter pointed this out in commons last night the mood on the Tory benches visibly deflated.
DAG and other lawyers on twitter saying the same thing
So unless Cox can wrangle a new twist on it, May is still in trouble.
If Mays deal goes through how much will our day to day lives change?
Can we still buy bike bits from zero Germans, will my chocolates be tariff free?
Will there be queues at the ports, food prices going up, mainlanders being deported?
Would airbus and the car factories stay?
I'd quite like the four horseman on here to lay down their exact predictions. It's so easy to keep saying it's going to be a cluster****. (I admit that's a bit cheeky no one is an oracle and could extrapolate all the Tory domestic damage.)
Chances of the ‘meaningful vote’ actually taking place today?
Zero?
Shall we have a sweep on what time it gets pulled?
I’ll go for 12.30
What do you reckon?
To be fair to Binners - at least he's willing to put some numbers to it.
I'd say the vote is on. (Although we will be more certain when all the legal stuff by Geoffrey Cox - has been checked out) I think that will steer the ship.
I'm going for the vote being on.
zippykona
Subscriber
If Mays deal goes through how much will our day to day lives change?
Honestly we don't know, the WA covers about 20% of what we need to work out, 5+ years of future relationship talks b4 we know the answer to that, it's why Hammond's promise of an investment 'boom' post vote aren't believed by the BOE & other economists.
Which is very worrying for airbus/auto workers, but that's Brexit for ya!
They are looking for a reason and if they can fall back on someone else’s ‘expert’ advice at that point – hell; it’s off their conscience.
Absolutely, after May came back with this deal in Xmas 2017 many of the brexiteers thought it was a victory, it wasn't till Cox pointed out that it was trap b4 they started objecting, but then these were the same brexiteers that cheered May's red lines at the start, without realising that they made our present situation inevitable-
we can't keep the benefits of membership after we leave, is not something they've grasped (or won't admit in public, because they only won the vote by pretending there were no benefits)
How do you embed tweets??
Jon Snow writes:
A Lawyer contact tells me that the legal world is aware that the Attorney General said NO last night to the validity of Mrs May's 'new EU deal'...he been told to go away and find a way to say YES: A cohort of lawyers has been summoned.
Gives some substance to the notion this was agreed over the weekend, and rolled out at the last possible moment to minimise scrutiny.
Looks like someone over at The Mirror is a bit vexed.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/nobody-wants-brexit-its-time-14117958
Under Article 178 of the Withdrawal Agreement, if either side is found to have acted in breach of the good faith/best endeavours obligation, the strongest remedy is “temporary suspension” of parts of the Agreement to force the other side back to the negotiating table.
What a load of wooly fluff, how exactly does one get found to be in breach of 'best endeavours'? Lol!
It’s all spin and lies out there;
UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox has described as "b*******" a claim that he had been "told to find a way" to ensure legal validation of Theresa May's newly-negotiated arrangement with the EU.
The one-word tweeted response was given to Channel 4 News presenter Jon Snow, who had tweeted: "A Lawyer contact tells me that the legal world is aware that the Attorney General said NO last night to the validity of Mrs May's 'new EU deal'... he been told to go away and find a way to say YES: A cohort of lawyers has been summoned."
Good to see JRM is already using the dup as potential fallguys so the erg can fold.
Rte seems a bit better than bbc for coverage and included this one;
Meanwhile, Independent Group MP Anna Soubry tweeted: "Just in case you weren't sure who's running our country @Jacob--Rees--Mogg confirms the most important decision our country has taken since WW2 hangs on the views of a self appointed committee of #ERG hard #Brexit 'lawyers' and the DUP. So much for #TakingBackControl."
Psst… for those not paying attention… ages ago the EU sought a "punishment clause" in case we didn't bother seeking a proper permanent relationship, and tried to just hold on to transition and backstop arrangements as long as possible instead. The UK papers went utterly bonkers over that. Yet now all this latest "clarification" suggests that the EU has one… they can temporarily hammer our trade in goods to teach us a lesson, and push us into actually aiming for something solid. I think, considering our current politicians, I might welcome them being given that whip hand… but selling it as the UK gaining more power over its relationship with our neighbours is pure comedy gold.
kelvin, i wouldn't call it a punishment clause, the reality is that the EU have almost complete control over all farm exports, over GDPR compliance, international bus travel, haulage, flights, food imports, etc.
If the UK doesn't "do as it is told" they can break the UK very easily. I am not suggesting they will, but the one thing the UK is not doing is taking back control. Control has been given away.
Amnyway, on the basis that everyone hates the deal, if this deal does get accepted how many days until the uk tries to break it?
Well it doesn't matter what Geoffrey Cox (or anyone else) thinks, the ERG have decided it doesn't meet there demands
By this point I don't think anyones under any illusions about who it is who's actually running the country, so thats the end of that then.
I'm definitely going for this vote being pulled in the next few hours
I think the vote will go through and May will win. She will get the win because the tories want to keep the party together more than they actually want Brexit or what is best for the country.
The tories are an absolute disgrace of a party, they only want what's good for the party. Party first and sod everyone else. After the vote I think we'll see the ERG take control of the party, as May is on limited time once she wins the vote.
All in my humble opinion.
Well it doesn’t matter what Geoffrey Cox (or anyone else) thinks, the ERG have decided it doesn’t meet there demands
I don't think that matters because the ERG will oust May once her deal is voted through and they can then install someone that is more agreeable to their dogma.
ERG = Momentum. And neither organisation can get elected by the public in a general election.
The ERG have already taken over the Tory Party. Their tail has been wagging the Tory dog since Mays botched election. All that remains is for them to install their figurehead which, god help us, will probably be Boris. Its no coincidence that Rees Mogg is the one being interviewed by all the news organisations today. We all know that his opinion seems to be the only one that matters, particularly in Number 10
And you're right. They are the right wing Momentum. 2 cheeks of the same arse, and both totally unelectable in a General Election. Their only way to power is through a takeover.
But I that the ERG will vote this down so that they can depose May in the resulting chaos. Can you really see her surviving if her vote goes down to a huge defeat (as seems likely)?
As for the damage that does to the economy..... well that's not really a priority. Its not them that will pay the price. Nothing else but their fantasy return-to-empire matters
I still think she'll pull this vote in the next few hours and it won't take place today
All these pieces of paper and the fact remains that this does not give the UK a unliteral right to exit and therefore does not conform to the mandate that May says she was given by Parliament. The sneakiness of celebrating her “legally binding changes” despite the fact that they are, totally inevitably, not the legall binding changes she acknowledged Parliament had required her to obtain, is breathtaking even by relative standards. The British public continues to be defrauded.
Cox says nothing much has changed from a legal point of view.
Conclusion
15. In my letter of 13 November 2018, I advised that the Protocol would endure indefinitely in international law and could not be brought to an end in the absence of a subsequent agreement. This would remain the case even if parties were still negotiating many years later, and even if the parties believed that talks have clearly broken down and there was no prospect of a future relationship agreement.
16. I also advised that in the specific case that situation was due to the EU’s want of good faith and best endeavours, because of the difficulties of proof and the egregious nature of the conduct that would be required to establish a breach by the EU of those obligations, it would be highly unlikely that the United Kingdom could take advantage of the remedies available to it for such a breach under the Withdrawal Agreement.
17. I now consider that the legally binding provisions of the Joint Instrument and the content of the Unilateral Declaration reduce the risk that the United Kingdom could be indefinitely and involuntarily detained within the Protocol’s provisions at least in so far as that situation had been brought about by the bad faith or want of best endeavours of the EU.
18. It may be thought that if both parties deploy a sincere desire to reach agreement and the necessary diligence, flexibility and goodwill implied by the amplified duties set out in the Joint Instrument, it is highly unlikely that a satisfactory subsequent agreement to replace the Protocol will not be concluded. But as I have previously advised, that is a political judgment, which, given the mutual incentives of the parties and the available options and competing risks, I remain strongly of the view it is right to make.
19. However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.
(The formatting of that quote was making my teeth itch, so I've edited it for you.)
So, to summarise.... to quote Theresa herself:
"nothing has changed"
It really is groundhog day. With the same results, no doubt
What's changed is that May's run out of road.
Her 'deal' (I use that word loosely) is dead and without DUP support, it'll be another heavy defeat. MP's will vote to take No Deal off the table tomorrow and to extend Article 50 shortly afterwards. She'll then be back to Junker to try and agree a period of time for the extension, which will be hard as she won't know what to do next. I can see a scenario where the EU wont allow anything beyond the Euro elections and her only option is to fully revoke A50. At that point she'll resign - or go off sick with Deep Vein Thrombosis from all that flying.
Critical point here is the final para
However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.
Nothing has changed. Therefore May should (at least in theory) lose by a similar margin than last time. If that is the case I cannot see any other option than significant delay and/or second Ref. The whole thing could collapse. If it does, I would claim May has pulled off an act of political genius by stopping Brexit whilst appearing to be working hard to make it happen. Has she potentially saved the UK from itself?
Has she potentially saved the UK from itself?
If that does transpire, I'd say it was more by incompetence than intent, but a win's a win.
My prediction. 60% May will lose tonight. Extension will be voted through. It'll be for the shortest time the Tories can get way with. EU will allow one extension not two - they'll see the short extension as writing on the wall and do more robust no deal planning. We'll have a hard Brexit by June.
40% long extension followed by never leaving. Maybe a BINO.
Does she really have so little self respect and such pig-headed ambition to remain PM so that she is prepared to be remembered as the least competent PM in living memory? I honestly don't know the answer...
But she will have held together her party and that may be all she is worried about.
Trying to hold the party sparked this mess in the first place. I'm hoping she really has run out of road and won't try to weasle out of it again. It's put up or shut up time. If as I suspect (hope) her deal gets destroyed tonight 2 options remain, national suicide on the 29th or ask for an extention. Hopefully the EU will only grant that if something significant is on offer, i.e. second vote. I'm hoping enough of the people anti no deal will realise the only alternative is to stay in, deal (of any description) is not an option with our current politics.
The ERG are irrelevant as they will find an excuse to spike anything short of the disaster they need to satisfy their disaster capitalist agenda.
So, the last 'amendment, 'clause', whatever that May tries to get in Strasbourg (and the EU rightly just ignored) was basically an assurance that the UK could take the EU to court if THEY acted in bad faith over the backstop.
Have a think about the last two and a half years and then consider that request again. Can we sink any lower?
The ERG headbangers have already started their paranoid conspiracy theories that Geoffrey Cox set out to Strasbourg with the brief to sabotage Brexit
The ERG headbangers have already started their paranoid conspiracy theories that Geoffrey Cox set out to Strasbourg with the brief to sabotage Brexit
Of course they are. They may only have a matter of days to go to keep the pretence that they are somehow a politically motivated group when in actual fact they are a disaster capitalist Trojan Horse. In hindsight it will be obvious, in fact it is obvious now, but (all together now).......the people want a Brexit and a Brexit they shall have.
Indeed. My worry is that if May goes, (once she's defeated later) through the arcane rules of the Tory leadership contest, a tiny number of senile old racists in the home counties will deliver this countries first fully blown, out-and-proud Disaster Capitalist PM.
In which case, what we're seen so far will look like a benchmark of polite professional diplomacy as they take a wrecking ball to our relationship with the EU, then pretty much everything else
In which case, what we’re seen so far will look like a benchmark of polite professional diplomacy as they take a wrecking ball to our relationship with the EU
See my post above about May trying to appease the ERG by getting an assurance we can take the EU to court if THEY act in bad faith over the backstop. I'm not sure we can sink any lower.
At least it is nice to feel a new emotion - my near permanent anger is being eclipsed by shame right now.
The BBC are reporting that the ERG headbangers and the DUP will all vote against Mays deal tonight, so its groundhog day, and all that shenanigans last night was just a silly little sideshow
Meanwhile how the former colonies see us.
Former top level diplomat and ex Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd:
“I’m struck, as the British parliament moves towards the endgame on Brexit, with the number of times Australia, Canada, New Zealand and India have been advanced by the Brexiteers in the public debate as magical alternatives to Britain’s current trade and investment relationship with the European Union.
“This is the nuttiest of the many nutty arguments that have emerged from the Land of Hope and Glory set now masquerading as the authentic standard-bearers of British patriotism. It’s utter bollocks.”
If we get a second ref and remain wins....
I now don't give a * if there are riots in the streets. Let the bunch of useless ** kill each other and if police are attacked draft in the army with orders to shoot if attacked. The ones young enough to riot will be the neo Nazi head bangers we are well rid of anyway
Hard line? Yes.
Deserved? Yes.
Does she really have so little self respect and such pig-headed ambition to remain PM so that she is prepared to be remembered as the least competent PM in living memory? I honestly don’t know the answer…
Perhaps she doesn't care about remaining PM and is instead trying to keep the party together and keep the UK in the EU. In other words, chucking herself under the bus for the better good. Perhaps.
In other words, chucking herself under the bus for the better good. Perhaps.
Hahahahaha! Have you really been watching May for the last few years?
Everything, everything she does.... What she is about is keeping her party together and remaining as PM for as long as possible, totally irrelevant of the cost to the country! Ffs!
The BBC are reporting that the ERG headbangers and the DUP will all vote against Mays deal tonight,
Question then is does the vote go ahead or is there to pull it again?
I now don’t give a **** if there are riots in the streets
Yep, let's all go on holiday for a month while it blows over. Europe would be a good choice.
Latest one was more looking like ERG/DUP abstaining rather than voting against, some tories to support her so it's going to be tighter.
Hmmm...
Rees-Mogg's assertion that we simply ignore international treaty is an excellent advertisement for Global Britain. Not.
Smart money is on an extension to Article 50 if May's deal fails in parliament. Either we delay no deal to the end of May/June, or we rescind Article 50 itself. Both scenarios are politically toxic for the Conservatives, the PM has sailed perilously close to contempt of parliament in the last few months.
Populism will wear very thin, very quickly if we go down the no deal route and people struggle to get medicines, food and hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs are kaput overnight. Even the most rabid Brexiteer knows this, so it's highly likely that in event of No Deal then an election is likely to be called very soon after to provide a mandate and to heal a heavily divided Conservative Party.
I now don’t give a * if there are riots in the streets. Let the bunch of useless ** kill each other and if police are attacked draft in the army with orders to shoot if attacked. The ones young enough to riot will be the neo Nazi head bangers we are well rid of anyway
I think if this does happen (I hold some hope of it) then the only thing we can do as individuals is to avoid the mistakes the Leavers made post Ref1 - namely, none of this "you lost, get over it" stuff. No talk of joining the Euro because we've got an unlimited mandate now. It would be time to recognise that even with all the BS the Leavers spouted, millions of people have lots of issues with the EU that need to be addressed.
The major parties cannot keep blaming the EU for unpopular choices they make.
They have to stop ignoring the EU elections to let the nutters represent us as MEPs.
Equally, we have to use our really premium position within the EU to address issues like immigration.
Otherwise, it's just going to come back again and again, with the ERG claiming we would have been so much better off if we left, how the EU 'stole' Brexit etc etc until we nominate some real Dupper into power who'll drag us out kicking and screaming.
Whilst I agree with that, P-Jay, I'm not so sure that we have any hope of retaining a "premium" position after this...
Otherwise, it’s just going to come back again and again
No-one is going to try this again.
ERG = Momentum. And neither organisation can get elected by the public in a general election.
Apart from the fact that the ERG is made up of elected MPs, and is funded by the public.
The comparison is not logical.
So yeah, don't vote for Tories and you won't get them in power.
Surely Duppity Mogg must know that there isn't support for no deal and will vote for may.
It would be time to recognise that even with all the BS the Leavers spouted, millions of people have lots of issues with the EU that need to be addressed.
"Now"? I said that the day after the referendum. We need to be pushing for Reform, not just Remain. It amazes me that this is patently obvious to a halfwit on a mountain biking website, but seemingly hasn't occurred to anyone whose job it is to understand this stuff.
Apart from the fact that the ERG is made up of elected MPs, and is funded by the public.
The Tory party has never stood for election on a ticket anywhere near as right wing as these lot. We've had David Cameron hugging huskies, then Theresa and her helping the 'Just-about-managing' horseshit. We've never had a full blooded slash-and-burn Tory party advocating setting fire to everything just to see what happens.
The nearest was IDS, then Michael Howard who both went down a storm if you remember
Well we could soon be finding out. I have a horrible feeling the next general election is going to be a straight choice between Corbyn (as he's clearly going nowhere) and whichever hard-right, rabidly free-market, slash and burn headcase the Tory membership install. I think the bookies present favourite is Boris Johnson with Rees Mogg as chancellor
In which case leaving the country is going to be the only realistic option
Apart from the fact that the ERG is made up of elected MPs, and is funded by the public.
The comparison is not logical.
So yeah, don’t vote for Tories and you won’t get them in power.
I believe that the current ERG chair, Sir Michael Spicer is not a sitting MP. Happy to be proved wrong.
The ERG don't publish membership details and it's widely thought that the ERG has many members and supporters outside of sitting MPs, just look at who contributes financially to them. I don't think either of these groups have any place in UK politics. So the comparison, in my opinion is perfectly logical and valid.
So my prediction
- Todays vote lost by 150
- Article 50 extension of around 45 days
- No meaningful change to deal
- Faced with threat of not getting it though Kyle Amendment is accepted (Labour amendment agreeing to support deal on condition of it going to second referendum)
- 2nd Ref called and lost*
- New Tory Leadership*
- General Election*
*not sure about order of this bit.
Either way, no Brexit.
Based on that, and if I am right, there is no way BloJo or JRM could win Leadership bid.
The ERG don’t publish membership details and it’s widely thought that the ERG has many members and supporters outside of sitting MPs,
Legal case, ERG must publish membership list, just see how long they string it out for.