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True also, but referenda are direct questions to the people where the usual rules of representation are suspended.
Where does it say that?
No. That we should question votes cast based on campaigns based on lies, bigotry, cheating and uninformed opinion.
& accept that people may change their minds based on what the result really looks like.. The 1975 vote was supposed to be permanent. Where did we get the right to change it?
Wow, the forum must be completely borked as it has allowed a Daily Fail link.
That WILL get the attention of STW Towers!
“That’s your bloody GDP. Not ours.”
And yet I am constantly being reminded that I ‘must respect’ the result of a vote where that was the level of the people who ‘won’.
I don't know if you're missing the point or I am. My understanding of the thrust of that comment is that many voters in various parts of the UK don't relate to macroeconomics, to rises and falls in national GDP, to the growth of the whole economy that they see reported to them. They see a decade of austerity, contracting public services, scarce jobs in their area, stagnant incomes. So when someone tells them about the risk to growth, it's 'someone else's' growth, not theirs.
People who think this way are the natural prey of populists, of the right wing, who deliver them villains and scapegoats such as immigrants, EU and Westminster who are taking their money and jobs.
The rise in populist governments and movements following economic crises is not an accident.
And tackling it will need basically need cash, inward investement, call it what you will. Where is that going to come from if we basically torpedo our own economy?
Changing our immigration policy to be more inline with mainland Europe shouldn't be expensive, it's ten minutes of arguing in parliament.
We seem to have been able to afford to spend £500m/week on Brexit so far. I wonder what we could've bought with that instead? Give it to the NHS maybe?
Still, it'll all get cheaper in the end.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46338585
"The government's Brexit deal will leave the UK £100bn worse off a year than if it had remained in the EU, a study by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has said."
Oh.
My understanding of the thrust of that comment...
I fear you may be giving them too much credit.
Tea and Kittens blocks it if I click it anyway!!
It's amazing how many people know exactly what the people wanted from Brexit but manage to put up contradictory positions. The one thing the can't possibly do is ask if that is the one people wanted.
I don’t know if you’re missing the point or I am.
I take it to mean that the person in question didn't have a clue what GDP is or how it underpins their lives - unsatisfactory thought they may be - and would make their lives immeasurably worse if it tanked by 10% or so. In that sense, it is actually the woman who is saying it's GDP as there will be less to filter down once the bigger snouts have been in the trough.
Simplistic politics being sold to angry and ignorant people is nothing new as you note. Quite why I am expected to 'respect' it is something I haven't yet been able to figure out, though.
You can respect it at the same level as '24 hours to save the NHS', or virtually every other political campaigning line. Simplistic politics is the only politics for large parts of the voting population.
It's not that the referendum result means you have to enthusiastically endorse every bit of naivety and misinformation that got us to that point, but that you should recognise that a re-run would be unlikely to deliver a better-informed electorate.
It's the truth behind the Gove line about 'having had enough of experts'. Politics is about making an emotional connection with a voter, not showing them a graph. I can make an emotional connection with the idea of a 10% drop in GDP, but only because I know the carnage it will wreak on people's lives.
Basically, Remain would have to find a way to fight as dirty as Leave did.
If Theresa May categorically says we won't be having a second referendum, then you can be sure it will not happen.
Like parliament definitely voting on her deal last week. That was HAPPENING.
Or all the times she told us we WILL NOT be having a snap election.
I'll ask again as all I got was two silly answers about leaving the country. If we had a second referendum and the result was to leave with No Deal what would you then do?
Quite why I am expected to ‘respect’ it is something I haven’t yet been able to figure out, though.
Because the alternative is that we go back to fighting over stuff with those left standing getting their way. Is that what you want?
I’ll ask again as all I got was two silly answers about leaving the country. If we had a second referendum and the result was to leave with No Deal what would you then do?
If it was conclusively leave with no deal (i.e. the referendum was an STV type thing, leading to a 60-40 type result) then I would have to conclude this country isn't for me any more. Which would be lucky as I'd likely lose my job in a couple of years anyway.
I don't know where else I'd go, (only options are USA on work visa or Australia on a family-ish based visa) neither of which really appeal.
It wasn’t a silly answer. It was entirely serious. I’m in a fortunate position to relatively easily do it.
I’ll ask again as all I got was two silly answers about leaving the country. If we had a second referendum and the result was to leave with No Deal what would you then do?
If somebody was stupid enough to put that as the leave option then back to Oz.
To get that as an option on a ballot would require a majority of MP's to vote it through.
then I would have to conclude this country isn’t for me any more.
The result changes nothing about the way the country is so why are you still here?
We are seriously considering leaving as the country has gone down hill since the 80's (wonder what caused that) but will probably find that the grass is not always greener (especially as you mention the US!)
I’ll ask again as all I got was two silly answers about leaving the country. If we had a second referendum and the result was to leave with No Deal what would you then do?
Is the you in this question actually us, or are we imagining we are someone (like the PM) in a position to make a meaningful decision? If the 'you' is in fact us and leave the country is considered a silly answer, we are but flotsam and jetsam, bobbing along in whatever way fate takes us.
If we ended up in a no deal brexit (either because it was voted for or the clock was allowed to run down and it just happened anyway) I'd be thankful I've got a few savings as I'm pretty sure my job would go and I'd completely reevaluate my expectations for the rest of my life. 'Making do' would be the best I guess I could hope for. The house I own is a very gammon friendly bungalow so I'd maybe try and sell it to a naive retiree before house prices crashed and look to invest it in gold maybe. Then I'd invoke my Scottish heritage and move north of the boarder and fight like hell for a new independence referendum and spend the rest of my days living amongst people I have more in common with. This is my plan anyway to be honest - just losing my job and the downturn in the economy would accelerate it happening sooner.
The result changes nothing about the way the country is so why are you still here?
The result would have a massive and potentially catastrophic change to the way the country is.
If we had a second referendum and the result was to leave with No Deal what would you then do?
What would you do?
Again I'm repeating myself, but. "No deal" is not something which anyone with an ounce of brainpower and integrity should be considering as something anyone would voluntarily choose. The clue is in the name, read those two words again carefully and have a think. It's like refusing to go shopping because there's a sale on.
The notion that "no deal" is being postured as an option is a madness. No deal is a lack of options, it's what happens if we run out of them. In the smorgasbord of lies presented during this debacle, "no deal is better than a bad deal" is right up there as one of the biggest. As I said, think about it - how can that sentence possibly make any sense? It's self-evidently nonsense. Getting five pounds knocked off when you're buying a car is a bad deal, but it's still better than paying full price.
We have a deal. The UK and the EU27 are in agreement that it's the best deal that we're going to get. If were to have a third referendum, the only logical question is "now that we know what the deal looks like, do you still want to leave?"
Incidentally. Before the referendum we were promised a deal, we've got what is arguably a far better deal than anyone predicted was actually possible, and yet the leavers still don't like it. It does rather beg the question, what on Earth were you expecting?
The argument now seems to be "we didn't want a good deal, we wanted a bad one!" I don't recall seeing that on the side of a bus during the referendum campaign.
I absolutely ****ing despair, I really do.
We have a deal. The UK and the EU27 are in agreement that it’s the best deal that we’re going to get. If were to have a third referendum, the only logical question is “now that we know what the deal looks like, do you still want to leave?”
This x 1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
& the campaign should be remove as much emotion as possible, have no straplines & just deal in cold hard facts.
I wouldn't do anything if we No Deal.
I'm a left leaning Scot so I'm used to being in a minority in a societal/political sense.
Actually, I'd vote for Scotch independence again if we get another chance.
Other than that I'd still go to work, play music, make beer and ride my bike. I'm a millennial so am used to jobs not being very reliable. So I live within my means, always expecting to be suddenly out of work for 6 or 12 months. So if my job disappears I'll just get another, or work self employed. I have lots of education, training and experience so can generally get by.
What would you do?
Again I’m repeating myself, but. “No deal” is not something which anyone with an ounce of brainpower and integrity should be considering as something anyone would voluntarily choose. The clue is in the name, read those two words again carefully and have a think. It’s like refusing to go shopping because there’s a sale on.
The notion that “no deal” is being postured as an option is a madness. No deal is a lack of options, it’s what happens if we run out of them. In the smorgasbord of lies presented during this debacle, “no deal is better than a bad deal” is right up there as one of the biggest. As I said, think about it – how can that sentence possibly make any sense? It’s self-evidently nonsense. Getting five pounds knocked off when you’re buying a car is a bad deal, but it’s still better than paying full price.
We have a deal. The UK and the EU27 are in agreement that it’s the best deal that we’re going to get. If were to have a third referendum, the only logical question is “now that we know what the deal looks like, do you still want to leave?”
I believe everything you have just typed. It could have been me typing it. However....to a deluded proportion of our population no deal is close to what they wanted. They have been sold some sort of line about this being 'taking back control'. The 3rd referendum you mention should of course be between the Maybot deal and remaining but I don't think that would make it to the ballot paper.
The result would have a massive and potentially catastrophic change to the way the country is.
I was referring more to the people in the country and the culture of the country. Whether it would have a potentially catastrophic change is just that, potentially
"No deal" has to be defined before it can be put on any referendum ballot paper. Currently all that could go on there (unless you're completely bonkers) is:
Take May's deal
Cancel Brexit
These are well defined and actionable outcomes. "No deal", as simple as it sounds, will still need to be defined and negotiated to an extent. E.g. what happens to air traffic, security, the payment to the EU. Also, putting anything like Norway Plus or Super Canada won't happen until these have been negotiated and defined in the same way.
While the original referendum had no defined course of action for the "Leave" option, I can't see this happening again due to exactly what has led us to this point now. Lessons will have been learnt..... I hope
I’ll ask again as all I got was two silly answers about leaving the country. If we had a second referendum and the result was to leave with No Deal what would you then do?
I would reluctantly sell my business assets and up-sticks back to Germany with my German wife. Take early retirement and get a "living wage" from her aging parents to look after them in their final years.
Now you have 3 silly answers. Only perhaps they are not silly and are more or less indicative of what might happen (and is happening all around us as more and more business's move (some of their operations) to the continent just in case). Thinking it is a silly answer doesn't make it less likely or true.
I’m a left leaning Scot so I’m used to being in a minority in a societal/political sense.
Actually, I’d
votecampaign for Scotch independence again if we get another chance.
to a deluded proportion of our population no deal is close to what they wanted
You know, I do wonder how many people actually fall into that category. I suspect it's not as many as the shouty corners of the Internet would have us believe.
I’ll ask again as all I got was two silly answers about leaving the country.
A silly answer would be saying "no deal" is a good idea. You got serious responses. Considering the likelyhood of Rees-Mogg and the offshore elites ending up in charge after a no deal leaving the country would be very tempting.
That is not a solution open to all admittedly but calling it silly is, well, silly.
I mean after all plenty of the brexit elites are sodding off (those who did actually have any ties to the UK anyway) so why shouldnt those who voted against it?
I’ll ask again as all I got was two silly answers about leaving the country. If we had a second referendum and the result was to leave with No Deal what would you then do?
Quite likely lose my Job and my Wife would lose her job and we would lose our home and end up on breadline\street\queueforohrriblesocialhousing.
Also, from my understanding, options like Canada PLus or Norway plus are options that are still there AFTER we have left the EU on the terms of the current proposed deal. This current deal is only setting uout the first stages of out exit. If we turn round in the transitional period to follow and agree to continue our relationship with the EU on terms similar to Norway, then there is no problem with the current deal with us doing just that? OK , so we accept freedom of movement and have a customs union, but at least the Backstop doesn't need to come into play then either..... or am I missing something?
For those who are struggling with how screwed we are going to be this speech to The Unversity of Liverpool by Sir Ivan Rogers will lay it out for you. It's a long read and you may need a coffee or two. Sir Ivan knows how EU works unlike say Dominic Raab or David Davis. It boils down to 'you don't stop when you are tired. You stop when the gorilla is'.
Don't worry folks. It'll be reet
Dave comes riding to the rescue
Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse?
Canada PLus or Norway plus are options
I don't know about Canada, but Norway & the other scandi countries have already said they would block our membership to the EFTA club & essentially the Norway deal would be carrying on as we are now, just without any say in the EU...
Social housing's ok. If there was more of it and/or private rents weren't so high perhaps those that felt hard done by enough to vote leave wouldn't have.
options like Canada PLus or Norway plus are options that are still there AFTER we have left the EU on the terms of the current proposed deal.
I think that's what they meant by 'blind Brexit' as in leaving without knowing what we'll be able to get afterwards.
If there was more of it and/or private rents weren’t so high perhaps those that felt hard done by enough to vote leave wouldn’t have.
Given how many young people this impacts it's as if there is not a correlation between the 2 things.
By all means we need to fix the housing issues in the country but that won't help fix the underlying issues of being left behind so many feel. In those areas it's way more than housing and people were offered a magic pill to get out of it.
I’ll ask again as all I got was two silly answers about leaving the country. If we had a second referendum and the result was to leave with No Deal what would you then do?
Apologies in advance but just to add to the silly answers, i already left. My issue is that brexit is effecting my right to reside and my freedom of movement. I would happily change nationality but that is not something that can be done over night. I was eligible to apply in Germany but then left for Spain and now have to wait some years before i am eligible to apply.
Social housing’s ok. If there was more of it
Thats the minor flaw isnt it? Thanks to flogging it all cheap and not building new stuff the supplies are low and it costs the taxpayer a shedload more in private sector rents.
Another genius tory policy.
I’ll ask again as all I got was two silly answers about leaving the country. If we had a second referendum and the result was to leave with No Deal what would you then do?
I have family in the netherlands. I'll be looking to see if there is any way of using them ( they own business) to be employed by them to preserve my EU passport. If that does not work retire and move to the netherlands selling up here. Unless Scots independence vote looks like a goer in which case I won't move until that is sorted out
I think TJ you can get a job there now to secure your right to work, then stay for 5 years to get citizenship. Should be easy with no dependents and someone to give you a job.
Meanwhile, on Facebook:
Martin Lewis created a poll.
7 hrs
Today's quick poll: If we ignore PM's Brexit deal (as many seem to) and make it a stark choice- 2nd referendum (aka people's vote)
- No deal Brexit (aka WTO rules)Which'd u prefer?
PS. Dont take the result too seriously. UNfortunately I can't split it here between leave and remain voters as I do on Twitter, so there's no way to know here how this group reflects public opinion (e.g. on Twitter it is substantially pro remain skewed)
55%
2nd ref
45%
no deal
Scary stuff.
But who's going to free your homeland from English colnial tyranny if you bugger off to the Netherlands?
Another genius tory policy.
It is a pretty good policy if you happen to be a landlord, which by coincidence a fair number of Tory MPs are. Just need to get the suckers to vote for your party.
Scary stuff.
Not a surprise to me as mirrors what I have been suggesting. Just because you think the voters are now better informed doesn't actually mean they are. Try talking to a few of them...
No-one thinks a 2nd ref is a shoe in, it'll all depend on what's on the ballot. And that's subject to political manoeuvring.
I have already gone too. But my wife is English and we go back to the UK frequently. And I own a house in England too.
So no deal could be a pita.
Just because you think the voters are now better informed doesn’t actually mean they are.
Indeed. Stick 5 Live's daily Brexit phone ins on at 9 o clock one morning and listen to angry, red-faced white van men ranting about how we're being punished by Brussels. Or check out a frankly terrifying piece by channel 4 news recently where they featured vox pops with a succession of semi-literate, toothless trogladytes in Barrow, all saying how they'd vote leave again tomorrow, then trotting out something they once saw written down the side of a bus, or an a billboard Nigel Farage was photographed gurning in front of.
The irony being that these are exactly the people who will feel the properly pointy end of the nastiness that will follow Brexit, as the newly liberated free-marketeers take a hatchet to the welfare state, NHS, workers rights and environmental controls
If we weren't all about to be bent over in the same fashion at the same time I'd say that they deserve everything they get
Canada PLus or Norway plus are options
As Ivan Rogers piece said, any concept with + written after it broadly isn't viable. Apart from the fact that we might not be offered the base deal anyway, the mere fact there is a + after it means that deal isn't suitable and we will want extra bits added on. Bits that are going to be different to what the EU can / is prepared to negotiate on to them.
And certainly not negotiable in 3 months.......
I am genuinely worried about the whole no deal scenario and many peoples total lack of understanding about what this would entail. Especially after having a conversation with someone at work just now about it. They said why don't we just leave, no deal then start negotiating again.... I pointed out that we would need to still pay the 'divorce bill' if we wanted any hope of negotiating better than WTO terms with the EU. I tried to say it was like doing a runner from a meal, then heading back and saying 'right, what price will you do me for 3 courses'.
Norway plus are options
I don't understand how this works, but Norway is on record as saying "no it's not."
They said why don’t we just leave
As I said earlier: this question was reasonable two years ago. If anyone is still saying it now then they're either completely disengaged from the whole situation, or they're an idiot.
In the case of most leavers I've spoken too they appear to be both
I don’t understand how this works, but Norway is on record as saying “no it’s not.”
It's my understanding that Norway's deal (as part of the EFTA, along with Iceland, Poland & a couple of others) essentially have membership in order to trade, free movement etc... but have zero say in the law making.
They're on record as saying they won't allow Britain to join the EFTA, so we're unlikely to get a better deal that way... as the EU don't want to piss them off. This whole situation really is just unbelievable.
I don’t understand how this works, but Norway is on record as saying “no it’s not.”
No they are not.
No they are not.
As it's panto season... Oh yes they are.
Norway-plus, the softest form of Brexit, requires the UK to seek to apply to join the European Free Trade Area grouping, consisting of Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein. The scheme, as revised by Boles, would require the UK also to remain in the EU customs union indefinitely, or at least until a solution to the border in Ireland could be found.
But the plan was rejected by Heidi Nordby Lunde, an MP in Norway’s governing Conservative party, and leader of Norway’s European movement. She said her views reflected those of the governing party even though the Norwegian prime minister, Erna Solberg, has been more diplomatic by saying Norway would examine a UK application.
Lunde told the Guardian: “Really, the Norwegian option is not an option. We have been telling you this for one and a half years since the referendum and how this works, so I am surprised that after all these years it is still part of the grown-up debate in the UK. You just expect us to give you an invitation rather than consider whether Norway would want to give you such an invitation. It might be in your interest to use our agreement, but it would not be in our interest.”
Is she a government minister? Does she speak for Norway anymore than Jacob Rees Mogg speaks for Britain.
Is she a government minister? Does she speak for Norway anymore than Jacob Rees Mogg speaks for Britain.
No - but she is tho...
https://www.politico.eu/article/norwegian-pm-uk-cannot-cherry-pick-eu-membership/
& let's be honest, the EU won't allow us a better deal than that, & if we had Norway's deal the Brexiters would be even more upset than the current deal.
If anyone is still saying it now then they’re either completely disengaged from the whole situation, or they’re an idiot.
Or the third option, they may gain from it, i.e Rees Mogg, Tim whatsit from Weatherspoons and so on. Not exactly disengaged or idiots and they know full well what they are doing.
Meanwhile as the shitshow continues, the Maybot announces she'll hold the vote back until the 11th hour, a week before the cutoff dat, in the hope that her own insane backbenchers blink first. They won't, of course.
Then we're all on for chaos, constitutional crisis and the very real possibility of No Deal
Andrew Rawnsley's analysis is always worth reading, and he was bang on in yesterdays Observer
Failed by both its major parties, betrayed Britain lurches towards the abyss
Hope no one missed Raab asking if the preparations for a No Deal would involve cutting tax rates for businesses!
If anyone needs to have it spelt out for them what Brexit is really about for the spivs, then we are truly beyond help.
In the case of most leavers I’ve spoken too they appear to be both
Conversation I had with a work colleague last week who is both an arch-leaver and a degree-educated employee of a world leading consultancy firm:
Him: "So if we're in the customs union does that mean we won't be able to do any trade deals"
Me: "Yes"
Him: "So then what's the point?"
Me: "Exactly!"
Him: "So what if we're not in the customs union?"
Me: "Then we have a hard border in Ireland and most of UK Industry which relies on supply chains with Europe grinds to a halt or goes bankrupt"
Him: "But we don't do that much trade with Europe, most of it is with America"
Me: "No it's not"
Him: "and India and China"
Me: "No it's not"
Him: "Well what about the rest of the commonwealth?"
This went downhill quite quickly after this into stuff about Libyan immigrants who blew up Manc Arena being imported by MI6. AND HE IS ONE OF THE SUPPOSEDLY EDUCATED ONES!
Or the third option, they may gain from it, i.e Rees Mogg, Tim whatsit from Weatherspoons and so on. Not exactly disengaged or idiots and they know full well what they are doing.
Are either of those saying "why don’t we just leave," then? Only, that's what I was referring to in your half-quote.
If they are, then I suppose I should add "or are deliberately misleading the gullible for personal gain," that should cover those two.
what would you then do?
I would dedicate my life to making sure that the people responsible suffer for their actions. The ones who voted for it mostly will anyway. I might teach them to spell schadenfreude, just for a laugh.
If anyone didn't see the link a few pages back to the Sir Ivan Rogers speech, it is well worth reading to see what a state we've got ourselves in. They've done us up like Ukippers, and it's all our own fault..
https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/
Cougar I had a conversation on "Britex" with a work colleague the other night.
Fully believes no deal is better than a bad deal, they need us more than we need them and they will be begging for a deal if we leave. Also the slaughterhouse is full of Poles and nobody from the area can get a job. Cue child benefit going abroad. Oh and Germany are taking over Europe again.
To be honest I only vaguely bothered trying to argue, I mean what's even the point at this stage?
Beeb reporting a Corbyn tables a No Confidence motion
In the PM not the government though
An odd one tho - not no confidence in the government but no confidence in May. A new one on me and I am not sure what it will acheive other than further damaging her - and she is still the black knight - "tis merely a flesh wound"
It’s probably a truly devious Machiavellian piece of political manoeuvring...
Just read the Ivan Rogers piece, I'm even more depressed now.
This weekend my (racist) SIL commented that they should just hold a 2nd ref. As it'd be a landslide for Leave & my mum piped up that the EU have bullied May.... My wife shut me down before I ruined Xmas.
I can't see a sudden conversion to the kind of openness & honesty from May or the other Brexiters that is required to prevent the next 10 years of negotiations being a bigger screw up than the last 2.
Canada +++ is looking good right now- that involves us relocating to Canada or as far away from this sludgepit as possible.
It’s probably a truly devious Machiavellian piece of political manoeuvring…
Well the theory would be that we know there are 117 tories who share the view that they have no confidence in the PM, it wouldn't take many and all of this depends on how big they think this issue is and how long the current government has to run.
One MP interviewed (who had just been surprised by the announcement) managed a not vote against on "this" issue
He's still fence sitting by calling a VONC against her directly.. Probably not confident about a proper VONC.
That said, will the whole house vote in it now? Not just the tories? If so she's toast?
Maybe he's banking on a Brexiteer replacing her, in which case they can stage another VONC, this time against the Gov and probably win?
Tories do not even have to allow a vote on it or debate. Its a piece of political machination intended to weaken her further. If they do allow a vote then she loses. If they don't she is running scared and has lost the confidence of the commons.
A proper vote of confidence in the government needs to be after she loses the vote on the deal - only then does it have a chance of passing IMO and even then its slim to none.
Fully believes no deal is better than a bad deal, they need us more than we need them and they will be begging for a deal if we leave. Also the slaughterhouse is full of Poles and nobody from the area can get a job. Cue child benefit going abroad. Oh and Germany are taking over Europe again.
Sounds like we work in the same place. The gammons are up in arms about the shit deal, preferring no deal, and even the more moderate leavers think the deal is shit but still better than staying in the EU.
Just watching channel 4 news and the level of political *-wittery on display is truly staggering.
We’ve a hundred days to go before a potential economic catastrophe the likes of which this country has never seen.
I know... let’s kick it into the long grass and take a few weeks off, eh?
I’d say that it was *ing unbelievable, but it’s anything but.
Just another standard day in the Brexit shitshow