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no option but to cancel A50
The point is to crash the economny, running the clock down is the aim.
Michael Gove has pledged his loyalty.
She’s doomed, then.
Michael Gove has pledged his loyalty.
Im trying to think how low this guy wouldnt stoop if he thought it would get him some where
Can she stay pm without being conservative leader? What are the rules?
Probably, the role of PM has developed rather haphazardly and formal rules are limited. The essential requirement is that the PM has to be able to form a government that has the confidence of Parliament. That said it only happened during the 20th century during exceptional circumstances.
I suppose its theoretically possible Mefty in that she could form a "unity" government with others in parliament to form a government - but practically? Not a chance at all. No one from outside the tories bar perhaps the DUP would join such a unity government
She can stay pm but must form government within 28 days or it is GE.
Given the battering she took from all sides on Monday how could she be the figure head of any sort of unity government? If she gets a close win then I'd expect the vote of no confidence in the government.
She won't mike. No one would join her. However the tories will win a confidence vote inthe govermnment. DUP will vote with the tories, no tory MP will vote a tory government down.
she could form a “unity” government
Whilst that is the circumstance in which it has occurred in the most recent past, it is probably not the only circumstance in which a PM is not the party leader.
However the tories will win a confidence vote inthe govermnment. DUP will vote with the tories,
TM as PM, unable to sort out the NI border? Why will the DUP Support her?
no tory MP will vote a tory government down.
We live in strange times, you do seem to still think belonging to a political party makes you a homogeneous blob devoid of free thought. I can see quite a few voting to bring her down for many reasons.
if I understood R4 correctly, there is no need for the PM to actually be party leader, s/he could be replaced as leader but remain as PM for as long as necessary as long as s/he can command sufficient support in the house to not suffer a general no-confidence vote.
Whether that is tenable in reality is however a vastly different matter.
Do the DUP have a stake in this contest? In the sense is there someone they would prefer to have as leader / PM? In that they could offer a S&C deal* to the tories to enable them to remain in government if someone else becomes leader, but remove those assurances if TM stays on?
* Arlene Foster as kingmaker.....or just another bundle of used tenners?
TM as PM, unable to sort out the NI border? Why will the DUP Support her?
You assume the DUP want the NI border sorted out, rather than say, crashing out with no deal, seeing a hard border thrown up, reigniting the troubles and entrenching their position and power. (Not to mention all those lucrative smuggling routes now the RHI scam money has dried up).
What I meant was sorted to their satisfaction.
Tenuous, I understand that certain elements of DUP can just be bought with luxury holidays nowadays
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46530569
PMQ's at 2pm. at the risk of sounding like binners, whats the odds on corbyn focusing on bus timetables and school dinners?
I understand that Corbyn is going to grasp the nettle and challenge the PM to a jam making contest. It’s a good job that we have such an illustrious opposition at the time of the nation’s darkest hour.
So a vote was held in 2016.
The people who had that vote aren't happy with the outcome.
Now they want to reverse the result of that vote.
Surely that is an attack on democracy?
In what universe would anyone vote for Johnson, Gove, Raab, Davis or any of the other swivel eyed loons?
What a selfish bunch of ***** these people are, sick of it.
https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/1072782344141066240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1072782344141066240&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-46533245
DUP not happy either
BBC are putting up some of the calls/messages from the 5Live (normally full gammon) phone in, not much support for the PM, plenty of this is the best deal we can get
The only good thing to come of all this is the word GAMMON
UK Nationalists/populists/stick-it-to-foreigners will exploit this shambles as the supreme moment to fully co-opt the J*une G*lets in 3, 2, 1...
Did anyone catch IDS sending out the warning call to arms the other day? 🤢 😡
A shameless and cynically-engineered fiasco. The repercussions of which shall see our lives out. Thanks, politicians. Thanks, social media. Thanks, tabloids. Thanks, ****heads and loons. Opportunity abounds, and the opportunists are taking to social media. This is the future.
not much support for the PM, plenty of this is the best deal we can get
Contradictions abound. Again. TM has negotiated the best deal possible, but has not much support. Righto.
Here's a graph-
taken from here-
That (if you change the time interval from day to month) shows the drop in pound/euro at the back end of 2008 and the 'recovery', then the drop in June 2016. I used this to show a relationship between the vote to leave the EU and the drop in the exchange rate to someone who voted leave and leave means leave and all that crap. He still insists we'd be 'better off' (whatever the balls that means now) out of the EU. Still. You just can't reason with these people.
Contradictions abound. Again
It is probably as good a deal as can be got. The problem is it doesnt please anyone.
Some want completely out and others want to give up on the stupid idea.
The only good thing to come of all this is the word GAMMON
Oh, I don't know. I'm thinking that this could well be the death throes of the Tory party as we know it. If she wins, then surely the ERG headbangers will have no option but to basically split and become UKIP, and if she loses and said headbangers put forward Boris or Rees Mogg becomes leader then surely the moderates will be off?
Contradictions abound. Again. TM has negotiated the best deal possible, but has not much support. Righto.
Yep, she has presided over a deal that satisfies nobody, and it's the best one we can get.
Brexit is the contradiction.
It still grates with me when I hear Theresa May say that leaving the EU is what the people of this country want. After the referendum we found that 51.89% of 72.21% of those eligible to vote wanted that. Since then opinions may have shifted, either way. However there has been no effort in the last 901 days to appease or convince what will still be a huge number of people who don't want out, that what we are doing is the right thing. Everything is inwardly and selfishly focused on the pro-Brexit side. I think this is storing up huge problems for anyone trying to govern in the future, Tories, Labour or anyone else.
I would fine with Theresa May's words if there had be an increase in support for Brexit, due to political campaigns or whatever, and most people (like a 2/3 majority) were now behind it. But this just hasn't happened.
Also the situation we are in now is entirely down to Theresa May's leadership. She has painted herself into this corner with the red lines she set down and by putting the leaving date into law.
However there has been no effort in the last 901 days to appease or convince what will still be a huge number of people who don’t want out, that what we are doing is the right thing.
This is a big problem for me. Those who voted out will gain a vague sense of self importance from being more 'independent' than we were, for emotional reasons. Those who voted in will lose a significant set of rights, and have their freedom curtailed. I think remainers have more to lose than leavers have to gain.
No indeed dmorts, the fatal flaw was suggesting the government would abide by the referendum result. It's almost as if politicians are expected to keep their promises.
@nickeardleybbc
So far, based on public comments;
110 Tories saying they’re backing the PM
32 say they’re opposing
Chimes with convos I’ve had, but as ever don’t take anything for granted.
So will they folow the leader and call off the vote when it looks like they'll lose?
Oh, I don’t know. I’m thinking that this could well be the death throes of the Tory party as we know it.
Indeed. And to think, had Corbyn taken the advice of Sturgeon et al, the tories would now have been galvanised behind May following a victorious commons confidence vote. It's almost like the labour party knew what they were doing 😉
So far, based on public comments;
Public.comments, secret ballot.
I think remainers have more to lose than leavers have to gain.
I think Leavers have as much to lose, they are just happy to lose it (well they think they are until it actually happens)
It’s almost like the labour party knew what they were doing
Even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day
I bet she's looking forward to PMQ's. Corbyn will give her a chance to relax a bit and provide a bit of breather from those behind her
I bet she’s looking forward to PMQ’s. Corbyn will give her a chance to relax a bit and provide a bit of breather from those behind her
Why are you so obsessed with Corbyn at PMQs? PMQ's is a complete waste of time. Listening to it right now. Corbyn asks what changes she has come back with from Europe yesterday (fair enough question). May's response was pretty much "your mum" as it always is. Is anything ever actually answered?
secret ballot
Argh, I kept hearing this all over the Beeb this morning as well; and from political reporters who should know better A ballot is a secret vote, a "secret Ballot" is a secret secret vote. The worst was some idiot from the DUP who mentioned a "secret ballot vote" the other day literally a "secret secret vote vote"
Is anything ever actually answered?
No, but it's the bit they put on the news, so everyone can see who's got the upper hand. Which is important.
No, but it’s the bit they put on the news, so everyone can see who’s got the upper hand. Which is important.
I don't think it does that at all.
I've got a very uneasy feeling about this. The blandishments coming from the May backers sound eerily like the pre referendum assurances from Remain than 'in the round, no one in their right mind would vote for this'. Remember what happened then? A load of people showed up at a ballot and voted the way they did out of sheer spite. That may well happen again here - add a measure of self-interest into the mix and it looks very uncertain.
There are plenty of circumstances where an ERG-backed nutter/wrecker/profiteer could end up taking us over the edge at the end of March.
And I'll bet 'the lads' have been cleaning up shorting sterling over the last few days as well.
Argh, I kept hearing this all over the Beeb this morning as well; and from political reporters who should know better A ballot is a secret vote, a “secret Ballot” is a secret secret vote. The worst was some idiot from the DUP who mentioned a “secret ballot vote” the other day literally a “secret secret vote vote”
This is excellent analysis.
I just spluttered my turkey and stuffing roll all over my monitor at that!
I suspect she’s going to win the vote and stay there for another year. All she needs is a majority of one.
One question would be, how much longer will the Mogg-ites carry on as if they had leverage?
If May wins today, the PM cannot be challenged for a year. When I asked whether she would commit to serve that full year, her aides did NOT give that commitment. Sounds like she'll be gone between March and July next year
I wonder what's happening between March and July?
Maybe she's going to hang on long enough to pull the plug at the last minute and do a runner?
some good observatiobs here
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/12/12/we-re-the-hostages-of-a-tory-party-that-has-gone-insane
I wonder what’s happening between March and July?
chaos.
rioting.
revolution.
a “secret secret vote vote”
I enjoyed this.
Also, we don't even get to know who called for this "secret ballot vote" as those triggering it can keep their names secret. And I still don't get why the "so called European Reserach Group" can receive parliamentary funds, without having to reveal who they are. Transparent democracy is not the Tory way. These are MPs, acting on our behalf. Supposedly.
I suspect she’s going to win the vote and stay there for another year. All she needs is a majority of one.
I think you're right and hopefully thereafter Mogg will become an irrelevance.
Kimbers - that article is spot on! We are being ruled by lunatics who seem to be willingly rejecting reality to retreat into some colonial dreamworld
Actually it’s secret who asked for this secret vote to decide on whether to vote for a new Tory leader, so...
...secret (secret (vote) vote) is about right.
Think I bracketed that correctly.
And I still don’t get why the “so called European Reserach Group” can receive parliamentary funds, without having to reveal who they are.
Subscribers have to declare it on their IPSA returns which are in the public domain - you can see a list on Wiki, not sure how up to date it is.
Link? List?
Does "subscribers" mean the same as "members'? Is the number of named subscribers the same as the number of redacted members names that ERG letters are "signed" by?
If you download an MPs data from IPSA, for instance here for Rees-Mogg here you can see it. Subscribers is where they get their parliamentary funding from, essentially it is a mechanism for pooling research costs.
Well, we know that the Chair is known… who are the other members? Are they all subscribers, or do just some key members need to be subscribers to claim the funds? Do you have a list of members? You said there was a list of some form on Wiki… a link would be helpful. …also… what "research costs"?
what “research costs”?
Well there is the Butler to start with, and then the pigs heads
email from my mp today. Happy to go no deal !
Thank you for your email I hope you will forgive a general reply. Having carefully considered all the information about the Withdrawal Agreement and having reflected carefully on the opinions of local residents and local businesses, I have decided that I am unable to support the Withdrawal Agreement in its current form. In any contract, both sides should have the right to end the contract if it is not working well for either side. The Withdrawal Agreement does not give the United Kingdom the right not to enter the backstop or to leave the backstop if we wanted to.
I believe that this would be a betrayal of the trust the British people put in the democratic process at the time of the referendum and could amount to indefinite rule, without representation, by a foreign organisation. The current Withdrawal Agreement also threatens the integrity of the United Kingdom and could leave us in the worst of all worlds, with protracted negotiations going on with the European Union for years and years to come.
I believe that the United Kingdom can have a bright and exciting global future and the best possible relations with our European friends. As a Trade Envoy, I know that there is a huge demand for British goods and services around the world. If the European Union will not grant the United Kingdom the sovereign right to refuse to enter the backstop, or to leave the backstop when we want to, then, at that point, I think it would be in our national interest to move to World Trade Organisation terms to trade with the European Union with facilitation agreements of the kind that other advanced economies use to trade with the EU. I think we should use the time allowed in the transition period to work on those facilitation agreements in an orderly manner. A number of local businesses have supported this course of action.
With very best wishes,
Andrew Selous
Member of Parliament for SW Bedfordshire
Didn't someone here opine that the WTO is likely to insist on a hard border in Ireland?
I wonder how he proposes to square that off....
How does he propose to "use the time allowed in the transition period to work on those facilitation agreements in an orderly manner" when crashing out necessarily means that there is no transition period.
what “research costs”?
They employ one person to do research that is pretty much the extent of their expenditure, IPSA review the activities of all the groups to make sure they comply with the rules, you can read their report if you want.
Didn’t someone here opine that the WTO is likely to insist on a hard border in Ireland?
Not according to a WTO official who gave a talk in Ireland last week.
As a Trade Envoy... I think it would be in our national interest to move to World Trade Organisation terms
Jesus ****ing wept. I do hope he's lying, the alternative is too horrendous to contemplate.
They employ one person to do research that is pretty much the extent of their expenditure
Who must either be shit, they ignore or only looks for the wrong things given the level of delusion they have.
Out of interest what border requirements did the wto official say they needed to have?
Would the wto let us skip checks at all other eu - UK ports as well?
How exactly is letting goods and who knows what else flood in from the EU taking control of our borders?
Reading something a minute ago about the withdrawal agreement, it needs to be voted for by parliment & then the house of lords - do we know if they're as split as the rest of us or could they prevent Brexit?
do we know if they’re as split as the rest of us or could they prevent Brexit?
I dont believe they can prevent Brexit now since the legislation has already been passed to leave the EU. This is just about accepting the deal with the obvious problem of if that deal is bad then what happens? Hard brexit?
This bit mefty?
One expert warned that it would fall either to the UK or EU - not the WTO - to set up border checks in order to protect the integrity of their internal markets from illegal activity and divergent trade rules.
The WTO will not force a border but we will need one to facilitate trade, duty and customs processes. Unless we plan to ignore them and not enforce our border. So basically the border becomes a fantastic smuggling location.
So basically the border becomes a fantastic smuggling location.
Not really because it is separated from the big markets by a socking great expanse of water, which is why the head of the HMRC in his evidence to Parliament was pretty comfortable with policing it away from the border.
EDIT: But that bit you quote is some Professor, not the WTO official.
Do between the mainland and Northern Ireland with NI remaining part. Of a customs union with the eu or between the rest of the eu and Ireland?
That Selous bloke is just plain lying. He’s probably feeding the inside track to his mates at the hedge fund and they’re shorting sterling and making a killing. In the (almost unbelievably) more moral world of business, it would be called insider trading and you might even be unlucky enough to get locked up for. However, if it is an entire country and its economy you are rigging to profit from, then that’s just politics, folks.
I hate these people. I used to vote Tory. Never, ever, ever again under any circumstances will I vote for this vile entity.
“There is nothing in WTO rules that forces anyone to put up border posts,” said WTO spokesman Keith Rockwell on a visit to Dublin last week.
So basically same thing, there needs to be some sort of border, the wto are saying don't blame us.
Doesn't the MFN rule also add to border problem? we could have a soft border if we weren't imposing tarifs or checks at the NI border, but we'd then have to offer same to every other country.
Would leave many of our own industries seriously undermined, steel, agriculture etc
Research implies some kind of informed study what does ERG research
I suggest you watch the HMRC evidence to select committee, he answered all these questions.
Research implies some kind of informed study what does ERG research
Plumbing new depths?
Two years ago Conservative MP's got to vote to decide a new party leader and Prime Minister. Many have become disillusioned in that time and now realise they may not be getting what they originally thought. Now two years down later they will get a second MP's vote to decide whether their original supposition was wrong, based on greater information.
Makes you think.
Lets get this straight the WTO will do nothing, that is not its role. Its role is to facilitate its members and set an environment.
The WTO rules demand a border but the WTO won't enforce it, of course not. What it will allow is for any member who believes it is being unfairly treated the opportunity to seek redress and legalise any sanctions deemed appropriate. If you trade between the Republic and UK with no checks then you have to be able to justify why those same rules aren't applied to every other country on earth.
The US wants to sell chlorinated chicken the EU doesn't want it. A border will have to be enforced to prevent it crossing into the EU market.
What a complete waste of time having 3/4 of a million people marching in London for a Peoples Vote. Perhaps all it would have taken were 48 of them to write letters and pop them through the letter box at number 10 Downing Street.
So, where's this wiki list of ERG members @mefty? I'd be interested to check it out.
_______
That MP who thinks that a no deal Brexit means that we can use the transition period to prepare has been listening to DD… who's spreading the stupid around his fellow MPs.