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Too late for remain unless a party gets behind it
Don’t these illegal immigrants realise it’s even more illegallerer now.
Yeah, helpfully makes no difference to asylum and refugees if you can get out of the system and not be recorded till you hit the EU.
It's almost as it the whose idea of brexit is BS
Sadly those opinion polls haven’t really proved to be worth much in recent years
People will only rally behind a cause it if offers them something. The majority don’t know/care what leave really means - many who agree it’ll be worse than remain still don’t think that it will really matter to them. Combine this ignorance with a fundamental psychological inability of humans to recognise and correct bad decisions and I just can’t see enough people wanting to reverse A50 in the next 4 months.
Maybe in 5-10 years, if Leave really is a ****ing catastrophe.
Sadly those opinion polls haven’t really proved to be worth much in recent years
Yep people refuse to believe them or think that public opinion can change
People will only rally behind a cause it if offers them something
Yep up until now nobody has given them a serious remain option, that could be coming next week as a viable option to Deal/No Deal
The majority don’t know/care what leave really means
Says the man who doesn't put any stock in polls
I just can’t see enough people wanting to reverse A50 in the next 4 months.
Some of the biggest political marches in recent history have been in support of remain. So far we have had no leadership to push that at the top level.
Political opinion can flip in days and public opinion isn't much slower. I agree though that a large proportion of the disinterested public will just say "get it over with" without bothering to think about what "it" is.
Exactly Mike, as said above no one is pushing for Remain. Too late now.
No, it might not have happened yet but it won't be too late for a while.
Exactly Mike, as said above no one is pushing for Remain. Too late now.
Well that will be seen, especially if legally its shown that the whole process can be stopped.
Our only hope is that deal gets rejected,, government collapses and EU and UK agree to push back leaving date. EU have said there won't be better deals but if they sense there is small chance of a remain deal they will agree.
no one is pushing for Remain
Many MPs, of all parties (except the DUP), have been pushing for an end to this for months. If you haven't heard them doing so, think why that might be…
There are lots of ways this can play out, but most of them end with no brexit.
no one is pushing for Remain
Apart from the SNP. the liberal democrats, large parts of the labour movement, large sections of the population, some of the unions ( quietly)
The various court cases most importantly the one being held this week in the EU courts have some bearing.
Remember if this "deal" is not ratified in parliament which I think highly likely to happen then something else has to happen or we crash out with no deal in March. That something else can either be we ask for an extension of the a50 period ( most likely if the government falls) or just scrap the whole thing or a second referendum.
if they sense there is small chance of a remain deal they will agree
Which is why a general election, with both of the two main parties promising to Leave the EU, will do nothing for our situation and would just make a no deal Brexit more likely. Labour either needs to support a referendum or campaign to stop Brexit. Corbyn will do neither, unless forced to. Keep up the pressure.
Many MPs, of all parties (except the DUP), have been pushing for an end to this for months. If you haven’t heard them doing so, think why that might be
Some MP's have, the majority are keeping there heads below the parapet, waiting to see which way the wind blows hoping to pin their flag to the winning side, neither the tories or labour are favouring "no brexit" as a policy. In fact it is well down the list of options for both parties.
MSP is wrong, no brexit is certainly above no deal brexit for both parties. Though they may hide behind a referendum rather than actually doing the right thing directly.
On what evidence?
Well, "bored of Brexit" seems to be the government's current spin line to get public support for her withdrawal agreement… the BBC are going strong on that this morning anyway (good obedient BBC). As if negotions end, rather than start, in March next year.
MSP, on the evidence that everyone agrees no deal brexit is insane. There's only a rump of impotent windbags in the tory party pushing this outcome, and maybe 3-4 nutty labour "mavericks".
No surprise to hear the BBC pushing the "get it over with" angle. Of course this deal doesn't get over with it, it could at best be described as end of the beginning but there would be years of negotiation to follow, with accompanying extensions to the transition.
The whole thing has been insane from the start, that hasn't stopped both parties going balls deep to support brexit. Knowing it is insane hasn't counted so far, there is no evidence of a change of tack, I wish there were.
I suppose it was inevitable that May would make it all about immigration again. Turning on foreigners was a favourite trick of hers as home secretary (took focus away from her other cockups)
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;"> I'm not sure how the gammon will take it, for a while after the ref they were telling us that it was all about sovereignty, not xenophobia.</span>
May's problem is that her red lines at the start were always a fantasy, if she'd been honest then, there wouldn't be the kick back now.
But then if both parties had been honest about the pros & cons of immigration years ago we'd not be up this particular creek.
Right on cue, Keir Starmer just now saying he'd want an extension to A50 if May's agreement is vote down.
Which is a step on the road towards a withdrawal....
But then if both parties had been honest about the pros & cons of immigration years ago we’d not be up this particular creek.
I am not convinced a lot of people would be listening or care what anyone told them about the benefits of immigration, they just want less foreigners in the country.
Which is a step on the road towards a withdrawal
No it isn't, it is just another fantasy selling unicorns as a solution. The EU have made it quite clear this is the deal, they will not renegotiate, it is about time leaders of all parties started to give options based on reality, instead of trying to mislead the electorate with unobtainable promises.
Right on cue, Keir Starmer just now saying he’d want an extension to A50 if May’s agreement is vote down.
Going off every single previous labour statement, I'll listen out for Jezza saying the polar opposite by this afternoon
MSP, the EU have made it clear this is the deal based on May's red lines. If the govt (of whatever type) dropped its opposition to ending FoM there would of course be different options. I would also bet a large sum on the EU agreeing to some sort of extension (though they might insist on it being a withdrawal) in order to at least allow a new govt to form. Several EU leaders have already said they would for a new referendum.
Labour still attempting to pull the plug without being labelled as saboteurs by half their voters. Not sure that particular tightrope can be walked though.
I suppose the political endgame is that May wouldn't mind it all collapsing if Labour could be subsequently blamed during the inevitable election. It is a trap laid for both the ERG loons and Labour. The first part, which the Brexiteers have already fallen headlong into, was the idea that rejecting the deal might mean no deal, when that was never the case. The second is that voting against will mean you go against the 'will of the people'. Labour is teetering over this one.
All of which sounds like political genius from May when written down. So perhaps it's all just luck.
not just half their voters martin - also a significant part of the party who also want out.
On renegotiation.
I am sure ( and seem to remeber statements to this effect from the EU side) that if the government falls and a new incoming government wants to negotiate a more sensible deal which is much closer to the EU then the EU would allow this. What they won't allow is a renegotiation of this deal but something much closer to the EU - Norway +? of course they would.
If Labour do decide to block May's deal, it's not as if there are many alternatives for their Exit supporters.
UKIP have gone all EDL (a bit of an option but not enough to lose seats) and the Tories only have May's deal.
It is a trap laid for both the ERG loons and Labour.
This is the biggest danger for Labour. even though many, perhaps a majority, in the party are massively frustrated that they refuse to budge from their pro-brexit position, they could potentially be seen as anti-brexit wreckers by the electorate if they vote the deal down. I still think they will move toward and ultra-soft brexit, perhaps even a 2nd referendum, but it's going to be a very carefully timed incremental shift.
dogbone - bar split the party as they have been threatening!
dazh, I think you are wishing upon them a Machiavellian scheme, that they show on no level of being able to plan or implement.
MSP, yes but it might just drop into their lap unexpectedly!
if the deal isn't voted through, the EU will accept (or possibly offer) an extension to A50 - it's in their interest to because it avoids a crash out* and they leave the negotiated deal on the table. path of least resistance and ball straight back in UK court, why wouldn't you if you were in that position.
Problem with a no vote, it doesn't explain what is wrong with the deal, it's a stalemate.
If it isn't voted through then the options are Referendum, TMay resignation or GE, and GE looks the most likely because Teresa will not resign but is prepared to call GE on the basis that the press will back the tories and hatchet Jezza again.
*neither side wants a crash out and I actually believe the EU when they say that.
I cant help but think that there are as yet unknown powers at work pushing this towards another referendum.
not just half their voters martin – also a significant part of the party who also want out.
A significant majority of Labour voters voted to remain, yet the party can't bring itself to enfranchise them. Our entire political system is so fundamentally broken.
We're in new political territory here and Labour remain petrified of losing support in the old Labour heartlands, many of whom voted leave in the Ref and UKIP in the last GE. The truth is, Corbyn's vision of this part of the electorate is old fashioned and where it was accurate (in places like Sunderland) the coffee has been smelled and they don't like it (Nissan threatening to up sticks etc). HM Opposition have been pitifully weak throughout the whole of Brexit so far and should be lobbying for a 2nd ref now we know what Brexit looks like. However, he's just happy to sit at the back of the class under the misapprehension that a new GE is his route to No. 10. That is not going to happen. I can see a new leader of Labour before too long. Hopefully.
If it isn’t voted through then the options are Referendum, TMay resignation or GE, and GE looks the most likely because Teresa will not resign but is prepared to call GE on the basis that the press will back the tories and hatchet Jezza again.
TM won't call a GE. She'll wait until she's forced to.
So Jezza will need to call a motion of no confidence, and then the DUP will need to support it. The risk for the DUP is they could then end up with less seats and a less important position in parliament, and thus less influence on the Brexit deal that will be about to be renegotiated. Then they really will be at risk of regulatory divergence with the rest of the UK. I just can't see them chancing it.
So IMO, the DUP would vote with the government on a no confidence vote, TM will win it by a fraction, and there will be no GE. She has already said on record that as far as she's concerned, winning a no confidence motion by a single vote is enough.
We will get either the current Brexit deal or something very similar.
Mays meeting with Labour MPs tonight to try & sell them her deal
wonder how many will even turn up?
Whatever happens, Jezza isn't going to get his general election. The Tory's will happily fight like rats in a sack... right up until the point where they risk a GE. Then they'll stop.
Unfortunately Labours Plan (such as it is) is to win a General Election then they can somehow negotiate a magic unicorn fairy-tale version of Brexit that only exists in Jeremy Corbyns head, and will be laughed out of the place by the EU.
So if that doesn't work, which it won't, then Plan B is ..... erm..... errrrrrrr..... no, sorry.... there isn't a plan B
So if that doesn’t work, which it won’t, then Plan B is ….. erm….. errrrrrrr….. no, sorry…. there isn’t a plan B
Yes there is - repeat plan A. But, with Labour. That'll do it.
What I find interesting, is that there are plenty of stories out there where people who have voted leave are saying they regret it, they didn't know what they were voting for etc... I've not heard one person who voted to remain say I made a mistake. We should leave.
actually polls say just as many have switched from remain to leave as the other way round, a few more leavers, 'dont know'
Actually now I think about it, even if Teresa loses a GE, it passes the hot potato to uncle Jezza who still has to deliver it (or renegotiate which may or may not be an option) and she can claim 'it was my deal all along', but if she wins she gets to railroad it through parliament.
Problem with a referendum is that all the MPs will have to explain themselves properly on whether it's a good deal or not and they'll be compared to the 2016 position, which makes them look silly.
How many of the 7% that were 2016 Remain / 2018 Leave are in that category because we had ourvote and a decision was made and therefore that needs to be honoured?
In fact, how many of the 2016 leave / 2018 Leave would also now prefer remain but wouldn't vote that way because of 'just get on with it' ?
One thing we've learnt in no uncertain terms over the last few years is that our supposedly liberal country is actually nothing off the sort. In reality, its stuffed full of bitter, small-minded racists and wilfully ignorant thicko's
I can see the second referendum delivering exactly the same result as the first
What stands out for me is that, of those who did not vote in 2016, twice as many now want to remain, than want to leave (accepting that the majority would still not vote/don't know)
There was a fair chunk of complacency in both the campaigning and voting on the remain side. I don't think it would be a straight re-run even if only on that basis.
So if we had a re-run of the referendum, who would front the remain campaign?
Another vote should be on outcome, TM deal, no deal,, cancel A50.
Judging by the movement in the polls and all the anecdotes of people chaging their minds I think it would be stronly remain if we have a new referendum - after all all the lies from the leavers have been exposed as lies. No longer can they get away with it. also all the "leaders" are now discredited with trashed reputations. Easy targets.
As for who would front a remain campaign - Dunno. Left field choice Sturgeon? Or two easy to paint her as a Scot trying to tell the english what to do. Starmer? He is about the only person to come out of the last couple of years with a better reputation. NOt a lib dem for sure.
Edit: original post withdrawn as, having thought about it, I can't actually see any reason that they should be a tory
Starmer does appear to be one of the very few with any integrity...
So if we had a re-run of the referendum, who would front the remain campaign?
Holly Willoughbooby and Philip Schofield.
They'd do a better job of it than the last lot.
Mind you... the Chuckle Bothers would be a vast improvement on that, and one of them's dead
Judging by the movement in the polls and all the anecdotes of people chaging their minds I think it would be stronly remain if we have a new referendum
I think the great danger of a second referendum would be complacency. If people didn't turn out, who knows what the result would be?
If we had another referendum after March 19 and voted to stay could the EU say that they don’t want the UK back in?
I don't see why not. They could certainly put a lot of roadblocks in the way to us re-joining.
Assuming kentishman meant 29th, ie after we have actually left, then yes there's likely to be a price to pay for rejoining. Not as good terms as we currently have anyway.
I think another ref would have a strong turnout from remain, they’re the ones with the fire in their bellies this time around!
One thing we’ve learnt in no uncertain terms over the last few years is that our supposedly liberal country is actually nothing off the sort. In reality, its stuffed full of bitter, small-minded racists and wilfully ignorant thicko’s
You may have learnt that, I have known it for more than 30 years since I was a teenager. It is however still more liberal that a lot of countries so there is that I suppose.
I'm also not convinced by a 2nd ref - lots of uninterested people would (incorrectly) see May's deal as "getting it over with". And another tranche would vote leave out of a sense of fair play.
OTOH anything to delay/postpone brexit is a good thing, once we've had a few cycles of vote/argue/vote/argue maybe it will go away.
I am sure the EU would allow leaving date to be postponed for another referendum especially if the alternative is a cliff edge given the next to no chance of this deal getting thru parliament.
First analysis of government’s Brexit plan finds UK would be £100 billion poorer each year...
Just need a red bus....
Is that experts again?
our supposedly liberal country is actually nothing off the sort. In reality, its stuffed full of bitter, small-minded racists and wilfully ignorant thicko’s
Half full, mate. Plus I sincerely believe that many leavers voted with good intentions having believed the anti-EU propaganda.
I am sure the EU would allow leaving date to be postponed for another referendum
Yes. They want us in, they would love Brexit never to have happened.
watching may take pelters here, obviously not going to get voted through, so what happens next?
First analysis of government’s Brexit plan finds UK would be £100 billion poorer each year…
In 2030. I know enough about economics to know that any calculation 12 years out is not worth taking any notice of. Way too many unknowns, moving parts etc,. and hard enough to predict 2 years let alone 12.
watching may take pelters here, obviously not going to get voted through, so what happens next?
Uncharted waters really. Pre the fixed term governments act it would be confidence vote and a new election more than likely. that could still happen.
I wonder if she would resign as PM if the deal is voted down without making a confidence motion. She really has done the best that she could do withing the constraints she has - some of her own making and some from others. That way the whole government does not fall but another tory gets elected as PM from within the party.
The grauniad has some analysis of what could happen but its pretty much all guess work at this point. Its a completely unprecedented situation.
And another tranche would vote leave out of a sense of fair play.
Taking away the chance for a Leave voter to change their mind based on the evidence is not in any way 'fair play'.
Parliament to vote on the 11th December according to breaking news on the German TV. Nothing at all showing on the BBC Website as yet!
In other news, we'll find out on Tuesday whether A50 is unilaterally reversible.
The government is arguing that there's no point in finding out because they're not doing it. Because god forbid that we might make a decision based on knowing things.
Pre the fixed term governments act it would be confidence vote and a new election more than likely.
She's already shown how much respect she has for the Fixed Term Governments Act. Abouts as much as she has for parliamentary sovereignty. Tinpot dictator.
I think Danny Dyer should lead the remain campaign.
It might be interesting to see someone of stature from outside of politics lead a new remain campaign. Attenburgh? Paxman? someone like that
On the news Corbyn seemed to be moaning that the leave people aren't getting what they voted for.
Guess he is easing one of his buttocks slightly off the fence.
Leading the remain effort, what we need is a conviction politician who knows how to play the game
Has he been convicted yet? Thought he was just under investigation.
Oh, you said *conviction*.
So if we had a re-run of the referendum, who would front the remain campaign?
Assuming neither leader of the two main party leaders campaign for Remain… then this could help neutralise the "just give to them politicans a good kicking" element of the Leave vote a bit. Both May and Corbyn are the very definition of career politicians. With every day we trust both of them less.
Search Mike Harding reply to TM on Facebook. Brilliant.
<h1 class="headline">Government admits UK could attempt to unilaterally revoke Article 50 if MPs want to</h1>
Be interesting to watch " we don't want the UK to leave juncker and his pals " to see what they come out with...I bet it's along the lines of we have a new deal (roughly translated to we have the upper hand) take it or leave it.