No that ignores the fact that a hard Brexhsit - if we did end up there? - is a lose:lose
Its a lose:lose anyway.
No that ignores the fact that a hard Brexhsit - if we did end up there? - is a lose:lose.
I'm not disputing that. But the economic repercussions are potentially a hell of a lot more serious for one side than the other
The only certainty is that no deal can be delivered in the time frame proposed. So it's silly to pretend otherwise.
Again... totally agree with that. yet the only politician prepared to articulate that - Phillip Hammond - is the one who then gets demonised, and shouted down as none-believer, a blasphemer, just for pointing out the bleeding obvious. Its scary the atmosphere of the denial of reality by those who are nominally 'in charge' of negotiations
My worry is that this process is not being handled by cool, business heads - on either side - its being driven by ideologically obsessed fruit-loops.
Good article, worth reading by Nick Cohen: [url= https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/09/brexit-salvations-illusory ]One by one, Brexit's soalvations' are seen to be illusory[/url]
the whole soft v hard is BS Binners and v misleading
As discussed many, many pages back there are four standard approaches to what comes next. As a starting point we are trying to take the benefits of all without the obligations that come with them. That can't happen. Hence something has to give - hopefully IMO FoM as that is a benefit not a cost.
We are ceasing to be members of the single market - we are now negotiating the terms of our future access. Neither side is starting from sustainable positions - and yes EU has a slightly stronger hand but it's a 1 no trump not a 2 clubs hand - but compromise must happen for a result and from both sides
I agree with both of you.
You borrowing Ninfan's defence notes now? The figure being one that Cummings himself did admit was completely misleading and used only to keep the debate up there.
I'm not sure Cummings said that at all, but that hardly matters, the only point I was making was that banging on about things can be somewhat self-defeating.
If you're on Twitter, you have to follow him by the way. [ odysseanproject ]
Have done for a few years, great fun.
Hasn't stopped the Lib Dems, SNP and Labour shaping the narrative around the lie that the Tories are pursuing a Hard Brexhsit. They are not.
We don't have much of an idea what they are pursuing, do we? Other than empty tough talk, what do we have?
THM, remember that the EU is a political project and not an economic one. To think otherwise is a mistake. Whatever happens it will be to support the politics and not the economics.
Exactly! Decisions will be taken by politicians for reasons of political expediency, on both sides.
The EU project is so important to those in power that economic collateral damage will be tolerated to sustain and advance it in the longer term. Unfortunately Brexit is also an opposing ideology. But already it seems that they too think collateral damage will be tolerated as a means to an end. Even if that end is a fantasy
Thats not a good combination. Its a crash course.
What you have to remember here is that, just as with the banking crisis, the people who cause the economic devastation, and could well be the ones who do it all over again, are never the ones who end up paying the price.
That's for us little people. We are the 'collateral damage'
Actually... that'd make a good t-shirt 🙂
THM, remember that the EU is a political project and not an economic one
You what?
i do not need reminding of the fact that the Euro (not the Euro Area) flies in the face of economic logic - hence the social devastation it has caused across the Euro Zone. You see in the end, economics always trumps politics and politicians are fools if they forget that.
I'm not sure Cummings said that at all, but that hardly matters, the only point I was making was that banging on about things can be somewhat self-defeating.
Which is lovely, the point we were discussing was how deliberately telling lies made you a dick so carry on.
You see in the end, economics always trumps politics and politicians are fools if they forget that.
Does it though? The longest period of peace in Western Europe, countries working together rather than constantly fighting. How willing are the French and Germans to see their people die on Belgian battlefields again? The EU and the Euro are far from perfect. All the alternatives that have been tried so far are worse.
As said the EU politically exists to avoid a repeat of the constant wars in Europe, anything else is a sideshow.
Another classy Brexiteer.
I think the Euro has done for the Eurozone countries what the dollar has do for the 50 US states. It's give them a currency it's very hard to attack and move more than a few percent. It's allowed member states to survive a financial crisis that would have resulted in them defaulting and going bankrupt with their old national currency. The Euro has resulted in more cross border business with economies of scale and a bigger market without exchange costs or risks. It's been a boost to business and trade. Between 95 and 2012 trade between Euro zone states was multiplied by 2.3 with most of the rise at the introdution of the Euro (BSI economics).
Perhaps sitting on your island you can't see that but living on a Euro zone border I see the number of Spanish plates in Decathlon car park and the number of French plates on the Spanish side of the border.
Does it though?
Well, the two are not really distinct as they both end up being about messy things like humans with their inbuilt irrationality.
Also see article in today's Grauniad
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/jul/11/how-economics-became-a-religion?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Does it though? The longest period of peace in Western Europe, countries working together rather than constantly fighting.
And why do they work together? Because their businesses and economies are bound together. I agree with THM - economics is the bottom line, because people need money to buy food and shelter.
don't call out the often repeated lie, and it becomes accepted as fact…
Yep. There's this one for instance:
you should balance your views by remembering that our side not only told rather large porkies too
What lies did "our" side tell, exactly?
Is the Single Market a political means for a purely economic end, or an economic means for a purely political end?
Simplify, simplify, simplify … and you end up with glib nonsense either way.
The contrary argument is that the fixed exchange rate has amplified economic cycles both ways and perhaps most importantly to those of a LW persuasion has led to rising unemployment and 30% contraction in workers' pay across the South. So when we moan about austerity and public say, we should take a look at S Europe for some perspective and a reality check.
Cougs,, we massively overstated the downside risks and their timing for a start officially and some on here total misinterpreted what the decline in GFP would be (albeit due to misunderstanding rather than deliberately). We told porkies about reforming europe etc. Had CMD been honest and said last Feb, that yes we know the EZ is terminally fu@@ed but we have managed to secure a bloody good real that allows us free acces to the single market for a bargain basement price (< 1% of GDP) without the financial obligations of being part of the silly bit, we wouldn't have been in this mess. The Feb deal was brilliant but destroyed by over selling and porkies. OUr side screwed up royally.
The big elephant in the room is the weak trend in real wages. But we refuse to tackle the root causes, so we are doomed to be disappointed - Trump, the SNP, Brexshiteers do not have the magic answers as much as they may pretend.
I agree with this assessment.
Since the 1970s, we've seen a decline in union membership, collective bargaining has gone out of the window and as a result, we've seen the lion's share of wage increases go straight to the very top.
Successive governments have known this, but have failed to address it. I recall writing to my then Labour MP in 2007 to quiz him on the government's plans to reverse the stagnation in social mobility. I received a very wishy-washy response.
It's well worth pointing out the particular malaise we have with productivity too. Successive governments have done all they can to encourage entrepreneurship, but without any state funding for management training. In typical Thatcherism style, everything is done on the cheap. We expect tens of thousands of jobless coal miners, manufacturing workers and shipbuilders to suddenly wake up one morning, become entrepreneurs and then are utterly baffled at the arcane way that work is done.
Since the 1970s, we've seen a decline in union membership, collective bargaining has gone out of the window and as a result, we've seen the lion's share of wage increases go straight to the very top
Flipside here in Oz we have some of the union guys that the 80s hated and more. At the moment we have no car manufacturers and manufacturers are leaving, wages don't always keep jobs.
Which is lovely, the point we were discussing was how deliberately telling lies made you a dick so carry on.
You can try and dignify it, but it came across to me as one of the periodic "let's pile in to Jamby" sessions.
Cougs,, we massively overstated the downside risks and their timing for a start officially and some on here total misinterpreted what the decline in GFP would be (albeit due to misunderstanding rather than deliberately). We told porkies about reforming europe etc. Had CMD been honest and said last Feb, that yes we know the EZ is terminally fu@@ed but we have managed to secure a bloody good real that allows us free acces to the single market for a bargain basement price (< 1% of GDP) without the financial obligations of being part of the silly bit, we wouldn't have been in this mess. The Feb deal was brilliant but destroyed by over selling and porkies. OUr side screwed up royally.
+1, if you want to understand how the referendum was lost, you should read "All Out War" by Tim Shipman. I appreciate THM already has.
Mefty +1 x2 😉
(I failed to finish Shipman largely because I had read Banks's trashy version first and got depressed. But that shouldn't take away from the fact that we LOST the argument)
Cougs,, we massively overstated the downside risks and their timing for a start
You're saying we failed to accurately predict the future? That's hardly lying is it.
total misinterpreted what the decline in GFP would be (albeit due to misunderstanding rather than deliberately)
So we misunderstood something? That's hardly lying is it.
(What's "GFP"?)
We told porkies about reforming europe etc.
What porkies were they?
No Osborne deliberately misled the public and then many lied about what the econometric studies were saying - including a well-known forumite who also struggles with facts - a rival for the derided culprit ^
GFP is a typo, should be GDP - the point was that our cost of membership was a bargain. Should have been simple to sell but we screwed that up too.
We were not going to reform Europe and the Feb meeting was never about that nor could the Tories deliver it. What was achieved was an awesome deal. Sadly the Tories oversold it and the rest decided to attack CMD simple because he was a Tory/Toff etc instead of looking at the detail. Confirming the old adage if being careful what you wish for.
Another part of us remainers screwing it up.
has led to rising unemployment and 30% contraction in workers' pay across the South.
I think you need to back that up with some links, THM.
[url= http://www.journaldunet.com/business/salaire/espagne/pays-esp ]http://www.journaldunet.com/business/salaire/espagne/pays-esp[/url]
A few minutes with Google says salaries have been flat against a background of low inflation. The entry points for the Euro weren't perfect and there has been some adjustment but saying that salaries are down 30% needs some justification.
No I lied 😉
But good point, I was confusing my stories in a rush. What I should have said is that to restore wage competitiveness, wages across S Europe would have decline by 20-30% under a fixed exchange rate system. In the end, we got a partial adjustment plus the other release valve of significantly higher unemployment. Essentially the same thing.
But you are correct to pull me up on sloppy use of figures !!
I see johnson hasnt lost the fine art of saying really stupid things and making everyones job more difficult......
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/884743321796718592
[url= http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/may-dumps-brexit-paperwork-on-corbyns-doorstep-and-legs-it-20170711131543 ]Apparently Jezza has now 'taken back control'[/url] 😆
You can try and dignify it, but it came across to me as one of the periodic "let's pile in to Jamby" sessions.
So it's good to constantly lie through your teeth?
Good show chaps, not picking on anyone here unless they constantly live in a fantasy world that bears no resemblance to the one the rest of us live in, guess you all thing every one of his claims are accurate and real - I pity your gullibility.
If any further proof of Theresa Mays appalling lack of judgement were required, its in appointing that ****ing self-serving floppy fringed baboon as Foreign Secretary. And inexplicably, he's still there.
I think Ian Hislop summed him up best:
[i]People always ask me the same question, they say, 'Is Boris a very very clever man pretending to be an idiot?' And I always say, 'No.'[/i]
I don't think he lies particularly, he certainly "shoots from the hip" and will misinterpret things, but that is hardly uncommon here or in the media. We all interpret things though our own prism. You shouldn't let it get to you, he is only posting about politics on an MTB site, it is not something of any consequence.
Since the 1970s, we've seen a decline in union membership, collective bargaining has gone out of the window
True but collective bargaining is much more difficult now after the Viking and Laval judgements by the ECJ.
https://www.elaweb.org.uk/resources/ela-briefing/laval-viking-line-and-limited-right-strike
wonder if Johnson is deliberately trying to make Davis' job harder so that talks will collapse and Davis will be too tarnished for any leadership contest?
Well I'm back. I took Jamba's advice, ate, drank and ended up a little rough the next morning.
Must have been a different bunch to Jamba's wedding. For one they could certainly quaff champagne, and secondly I was quizzed about Brexit and they reckoned Britain was mad to leave.
Anyway I see the polls now suggest the British reckon Britain would be mad to leave the EU too - 51:44 on the straight remain:leave question and 60% want to keep the rights of an EU citizen.
And even the Telegraph is edging round to that view - I read the comments column there too, which was interesting.
Hey ho.
The Brexshit Bugle is turning.....whatever next?!?
I know. Jamba? 😉
I know. Jamba?
You know you're going too far there.
edited....
Too - cmon standards
"Come on," standards.
"C'mon, standards"....standards?!?
Ok. I take it back. Maybe Farage then.
Has this been posted before
