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There are some of the Brexies on here coming across as rather nasty individuals.
ninfan - Member
Isn't the first rule of first aid to avoid becoming a casualty yourself?
2 schools of thought.
One is don't be a victim, be able to defend yourself etc.
Other is don't inflict pain on people.
One of those follows rule 1 don't be a dick.
More on the FAZ report:
Other is don't inflict pain on people.
i agree, not holding out for a negotiated reciprocal deal which assured rights to remain for both EU citizens in the UK [b]and[/b] UK citizens living in the EU would risk unnecessarily inflicting pain on people and families. I am glad we both feel the same on this issue.
I caught a lot of that FAZ stuff last night as it began to break across twitter.
May had a (relatively) successful negotiation back in 2014 (IIRC...could be wrong on dates) on aspects of security where the UK opted out of some stuff and then back in on 35 out of 130. Readers of the Telegraph would have read her gloating about it back then. [She never mentioned that it was designed to be implemented this way.]
In her naivety, she now believes she can apply the same cherry-picking to a "free-trade" deal. It's utter recklessness to be approaching negotiations with the EU on trade this way.
For Remainers the FAZ stuff will be much quoted today to show the weakness of the UK's position now that flesh is being put on bones.
However, I can equally see how Brexiteers will spin this into the EU's inflexibility and bullying nature. It's that curious dichotomy we've seen all along. We're awesome and TNUMTWNT but yet we're inferior and just get pushed around like the weak kid. Juncker is easily painted as a pantomime villain for Brexiteers. It's superficial but it's simple and Brexiteers like it put simply.
So yeah, the FAZ stuff adds more confirmation to the lie that is "strong and stable" but just wait for it to be spun. Because they ain't got nothing else.
I am glad we both feel the same on this issue.
The standard of debate is awesome!
"I'm rubber and you're glue,
whatever you say bounces off me
and sticks to you"
So now May is in denial about being told she's in denial
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39770328 ]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39770328[/url]
"No, we had a splendid meeting and they agreed to everything I said, because I'm strong and stable."
there are obviously two sides to the meal story and a truth that is in-between, but, whose side do you give more credence too?
This would be more amusing if i didn't have to live with the consequences
https://www.ft.com/content/8f169d1e-2bfd-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c
Sorry FT and Mr Rachman:
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our T&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights.
> https://www.ft.com/content/8f169d1e-2bfd-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c
/p>Sitting on the Heathrow Express last week, returning from a short trip to Berlin, I found myself composing a speech for Theresa May — to be given the day after the Brexit negotiations have broken down irretrievably.The prime minister is seated behind her desk in Downing Street. A Union Jack is visible in the corner of the room. Mrs May tells the British people that, despite the unstinting efforts of her government, the UK and the EU have been unable to reach an agreement. She has to warn her fellow countrymen that difficult times lie ahead. There will be severe disruption to trade and travel for an extended period of time. There is likely to be a serious recession. Britain had made a democratic decision to leave the EU. But the EU has proved unwilling to accept that decision and negotiate a fair deal. Instead, it is determined to punish the UK.Now comes the Churchillian riff. Lowering the timbre of her voice and staring straight into the camera, Mrs May says that some European politicians seem to believe that they can humiliate Britain and bend the country to their will. Clearly, they have no knowledge of the history or nature of the British people. A country that has defeated Hitler, the Kaiser, Napoleon and the Spanish Armada has no reason to fear the bureaucrats of Brussels, or the governments of Malta and Slovakia. A quick reference to Shakespeare and the “sceptred isle” and an appeal for national unity, and the speech would be over.I was rather shocked to find how easy it was for me to compose a speech like that, on a short train ride. After all, I am a “Remoaner”, who voted against Brexit in the EU referendum, and I still cling to the hope that it will never happen. If I can reach effortlessly for the language of nationalism while stone-cold sober on the Heathrow Express, what could the journalists of the Daily Mail do or the backbenchers of the Tory party?All this could be dismissed as idle fantasy. But the danger of a slide into nationalism and confrontation is real — on both sides of the channel. The Brexit negotiations are starting with the two sides miles (or possibly kilometres) apart. After meeting Mrs May last week, officials from Brussels briefed that the UK prime minister’s demands are “completely unreal” and that she is living in a “different galaxy”. The British, for their part, regard the EU’s demand for a €60bn divorce settlement as outrageous. The EU says that trade talks cannot begin until the Brits have agreed to pay up. But that position is also seen as unjustified and punitive in London.Senior figures in the British government may eventually conclude that they have no option but to play by the EU’s rules. It is possible that, fortified by a large majority in the next election, Mrs May can find the political space to make painful concessions, and face down the resultant rage in the media and her own Conservative party. But it is more likely that what Brussels regards as indispensable, London will find impossible.That means talks will inevitably break down — and then angry rhetoric will surge on both sides of the channel. Popular culture and the education system have produced a fairly pronounced “finest hour” reflex in most British people, which is susceptible to an appeal to glorious isolation. (It is epitomised in the David Low cartoon from 1940 of a soldier on the cliffs of Dover, captioned: “Very well, alone”). That means that if and when negotiations with the EU go badly wrong, it will be easy for nationalists in Britain to blame the French and Germans, and to make an appeal for sacrifice and national solidarity that will drown out the appeals to reason of the remaining Remainers.And while the Europeans like to argue that their position is dictated by reason and law — and not by any desire to punish Britain — there are, of course, some on the other side of the channel who will enjoy the opportunity to humble the arrogant Brits. I have certainly seen the occasional involuntary smile from European officials, as they explain how the reimposition of customs procedures could lead to long lines of lorries on British motorways, stacked up miles from the port of Dover. Beyond the issues that flow directly from Brexit, there is a plethora of long-buried resentments against Britain that can come tumbling out when the negotiations get nasty. Gianni Riotta, an eminent Italian journalist, already spots an “anti-UK rage in the EU upper echelon”.The EU, which has been troubled by divisions over everything from the euro to refugees, is currently enjoying the unusual unity of purpose that Brexit has produced among the other 27 member states. The British hope that this unity will crack, as the negotiations become more difficult. But it is just as likely that the EU will find that confrontation with Britain continues to serve as a useful rallying point for an otherwise divided organisation — and as a focus for the anger at everything else that is going wrong inside the Union.I will keep the notes from my Heathrow Express speech. They might make interesting reading if and when Mrs May gives her own version, in a couple of years’ time.
oldish but came across this
Sorry nipper but which part of "don't copy and paste this article" did you fail to understand?
All of it, why?
All of it, why?
+1
Whilst the FT's request should IMO be respected overall, this particular article should be more widely distributed. We underestimated the rise of Nationalism in the 1930s, so suggest we keep alert to it again IMO... We have a similar pattern going on now - decline of a proud, sovereign power, economic hardship followed by the rise of Nationalism and populism...
On a similar note, in The Economist article on the historic tension there's always been between Central Banks and Governments, they have this to say... some interesting parallels...
In Britain the Labour government fell in 1931 when it refused to enact benefit cuts demanded by the Bank of England. Its successor left the gold standard. In Germany Heinrich Brüning, chancellor from 1930 to 1932, slashed spending to deal with the country’s foreign debts but the resulting slump only paved the way for Adolf Hitler.
Relax @eddie it was so boring Iaonly read the first 3 lines.
The rest of that article really doesn't add up to its title, I wonder if you have read it.
Yup all of it. Thought it was quite a good summary of a few key issues. The bit on Holland was interesting, 80% of their GDP is export (vs 13% for us), 80% of their exports are with the EU vs 35% (and probably less) for us. You can see how much more important the Eau is for others than us not least the UK as a prime export market.
The FAZ peice is perfect as far as I am concerned. The Germans and other EU nations meed to get their head around the fact that the "exit bill" is zero and may well be positive for the UK if we sell our EIB capital stake and that there may well not be a trade deal as we won't pay a budget contribution (one makes no sense unless like Switzerland and Norway we have a trade surplus).
May's position is positive for the GE too.
The FAZ peice is perfect as far as I am concerned.
See?
Spin, spin, spin.
If I was a Brexiteer, I;d have found that leak rather worrying. Not only are your lot losing control of the negotiations, you're now losing control of the leaks. Amateurs.
EDIT: The sound of bitty-boys screaming "Mummmmmmmyyyyyy" has been deafening today. 😆
[url= http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/nld/ ]Some accurate figures on Holland [/url]to replace the one Jamba just made up.
The bit on Holland was interesting, 80% of their GDP is export
I'll leave it to other readers to check the 13% UK figure but the Dutch one was so obviously rubbish it took seconds to prove it with a link.
Do you ever get bored of bullsh1tting Jamba & then getting so easily caught out?
@dd "leak" 🙂 Oh come on it's a deliberate release of information. The Germans are well aware we have no legal obligation (see House of Lords paper - they interviewed a senior German bureaucrat) and that they will be on the hook for the lion's share ofntye €10bn budget shortfall. For me May is right on message, zero exit bill and an ambitious agenda based on being comfortable with WTO,
@Edukator from fhe BBC link I posted earlier
But bear in mind, the Netherlands was one of the first recruits to the EU club of nations and [b]about 80% of the country's GDP comes from exports, most of which (79%) are within Europe.[/b]
Do you ever get bored of bullsh1tting Jamba & then getting so easily caught out?
See above. Apology accepted.
I have been on the winning side of [b]every[/b] major issue since I joined the forum in 2012. Now of course that run won't last but I've been right again on the EU Referendum and the lack of Armageddon post a Leave vote.
All you're focusing on is the exit bill??
Yep, losing control. Amateurs.
#StrongAndStable
Not at all. No exit bill is just a small part. WTO tariffs pelase and all money to the NHS, about £450m a week.
I have been on the winning side of every major issue since I joined the forum in 2012.
😆
Can never work out if it's just bluster or if you are really this delusional.
WTO tariffs pelase and all money to the NHS, about £450m a week.
Bluff. Bluster. You ain't got nothing Jamba. Keep repeating the lies though.
Losing Control.
Mummmmmmmyyyyyyyyy. Bitttttyyyyyyyyy. .
From earlier: No healthcare for Brits in Spain
I very much doubt it but healthcare exchange / granting right of residence can be negotiated with individual nations in any case. Brits make up 25% of tourists to Spain (a country in very very poor shape economically) so I doubt they'll do such a thing. Even if they did other countries like Portugal would imo happily make Brits a better offer. Where things could really really go sour with Spain is WTO tariffs an no fishing rights, zero, as of April 2019. This is a much bigger issue than Gibraltar.
Wasn't it £350M a week? This Brexit thing is even more awesome than I thought. Where does the £450M figure come from Jamba?
healthcare exchange / granting right of residence can be negotiated with [i][b]individual[/b][/i] nations
More naive than Davies and May. 😆
Losing Control.
Based on BBC news regarding Juncker visit to No.10 it looks like the EU bureaucrat is soiling his pants trying to talk tough. He is a joke innit. 😆
the lack of Armageddon post a Leave vote
Sit tight mate 🙂
Can never work out if it's just bluster or if you are really this delusional.
You can make your own mind up when we meet, someday. Remember no matter how bad things get at least you are not me 🙂
@AD a bit tongue in cheek for certain and posted as its larger than the £350 figure, combination of no budget contributions and expected WTO tariff revenue (total about £20bn pa)
@dd this whole unity thing is bollix, Poland even tried to block Tusk's reelection. How much unity was there over the refugee crises - zero in fact open warefare really. Austria arranges a conference and doesn't even invite Germany ! The list goes on ....
So you're saying they aren't all ganging up on us? That's good to know.
Bluff. Bluster.
Mummmmmmmmmmyyyyyyyyy.
They're showing unity where it really matters. And mummy and her bitty-boys are losing control. Of course, they've had a plan, and been pretty transparent about it from Day 1. What have you had? A speech? A PM embarrassed by your bête noir, Junckers? And the real stuff hasn't even started. I admire your chutzpah - it's part of the act - don't show doubt. Remain Optimistic. TNUMTWNT. I imagine you'll still be shouting it as the walls come crashing down.
FAZ are known for conservative reporting. You probably don't realise that - pesky foreign press. Imagine how badly May and Davies really looked at dindins? Look, you'll most likely have your increased majority in June (about which the EU gives not a shit btw) - so let's see who May puts in charge for the re-shuffle.
In other news, you've even been outflanked by some pretty skilled back room stuff from the Irish commissioner and his cohorts. That's gotta hurt - politicians from a primitive country. Some of them wearing woolly jumpers even.
May's position is positive for the GE too.
Not everyone thinks so:
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/poll-shows-most-scots-would-10315662
Hopefully the Scots can go their own way and there will be a border pole in NI and a united Ireland - some good will come out of this b******s all being well.
Telegrapgh piece making many of the same points I have about the "leak". Also states quite clearly its fhe EU delaying a deal on recipricol rights.
[url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/revealed-eu-has-secretly-plotting-block-theresa-may-eu-migrants/ ]EU plotting to thwart May on EU / UK citizens rights[/url]
Mrs May is said to have told the two men she saw no reason why Britain should pay a Brexit “divorce bill” of up to £50 billion, to which Mr Juncker told her “the EU is not a golf club” that members could just leave at their convenience.
But what surprised Mr Juncker the most, according to the leaked account, was Mrs May’s belief that a deal guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens living in the EU could be agreed by the end of June. He suggested Mrs May was “underestimating” the complexity of the deal.
However Mr Juncker cannot have been “astonished” because Mrs May said exactly the same thing to Donald Tusk on April 6, and an account of that meeting was briefed to top-level EU officials on April 11, according to an official diplomatic record of the meeting seen by The Telegraph.
Piotr Serafin, chief of staff to Mr Tusk, briefed all the officials present from the EU 27, including those from the European Commission, that Mrs May had made clear the UK would seek a deal on expat rights “probably as early as June”.
Telegrapgh piece making many of the same points I have about the "leak".
Spin.
Mummmmmmmmyyyyyyyyy.
Piotr Serafin, chief of staff to Mr Tusk, briefed all the officials present from the EU 27, including those from the European Commission, that Mrs May had made clear the UK would seek a deal on expat rights “probably as early as June”.
Regards reciprocal citizen rights. That article reads as a selective perspective take on it. Surely he could have been astonished the first time she said it, and the second time even after she had some more time to study the complexities. There's nothing said there that evidences intent beyond the real world practicalities on the part of the EU.
To me the article looks like it could just as easily be anti EU propaganda. As much as anything it looks like a set up by Westminster to create a grievance for political purposes.
Ooops, double post...
However Mr Juncker cannot have been “astonished” because Mrs May said exactly the same thing to Donald Tusk on April 6, and an account of that meeting was briefed to top-level EU officials on April 11, according to an official diplomatic record of the meeting seen by The Telegraph.
This makes no sense. So May said something a month ago, to which everyone says "you're deluded", and it's not astonishing that a month later they *still* think that?
The only way you could not be astonished by that is if you were resigned to the fact that the UK position was bonkers. Which isn't really what I'd expect to read in the Telegraph, but who knows...
Do you r own sums, Jamba.
2015 Netherlands GDP $750B
2015 Netherlands exports $428B (from the BBC source)
428/750 x 100 = 57%
The BBC source has clearly artificially lowered the GDP figure to achieve a misleading result (they don't state a GDP figure only the exports figure which tallies with other sources). They state they have excluded wages fro GDP which clearly indicates they aren't using the income approach. Dutch GDP has been quoted at around $750B for the last few years.
A feature of Holland is that it is a trading nation, always has been and probably always will be. Both import and exports are large part of the economy. Imports are higher than exports which is one of the things you are so critical of in PIGS. Stuff passes through but it's only the wealth generated (profit margin if you wish) that benefits the country - and contributes to GDP. So the 80% figure is based on non-standard GDP calculation and is misleading as they should really be quoting the export/import contribution to GDP. Further proof if needed that the BBC are useless and just publish whatever rubbish they are given without any critical analysis.
Most of the problem with Brexit is people not thinking for themselves and believing the misleading numbers printed on buses amongst other places.
In most countries social expenditure is of the order of 20% of GDP. In Holland it's 22%. Just to put things in perspective.
What I can't understand is how Juncker was allowed to remember everything that was said at the lunch. Why did they not get im pissed, bring in a couple strippers (negotiators), a few selective pictures. Quick as you can say "mines a landlord" he'll have signed whatever was in front of him.
Its what we'll be doing in the Free Yorkshire negotiations, we are expecting a queue of politicians from the rest of UK for our meetings, especially as our negotiators are all Barnsley lasses.
It's what we'll be doing in the Free Yorkshire negotiations
Have you had any thoughts on "Strong and stable" leadership for Yorkshire?
Richard Plantagent would be ideal, but I hear he's retired from active politics and moved to Leicestershire.
@mt Junker is a known p1ss head, you must have seen tye footage of him calling the Hungarian PM "The Dictator"
@Edukator in the interests of fairness I appreciate your points, however you see where I got my quote from. 'Twas also just an example of how much more other EU nations need the EU than does the UK.
The EU want to drag out our departure for as long as possible, not surprising as they don't want us to leave at all. They EU is very poorly placed to handle the reduction in exports to the UK WTO tariffs would bring and even more in need of our budget contributions, hence the ridiculous "exit bill" nonsense.
Of course its going to be ugly, we have stuck two fingers up at their vanity project.
The UK is going to make a big success of Brexit, the EU is going to have to do a lot of soul searching and dig deep into their own pockets.
The UK is going to make a big success of Brexit,
It's gonna be beautiful, really folks, bigly beautiful.
WTO tariffs pelase and all money to the NHS, about £450m a week.
AD - Member
Wasn't it £350M a week? This Brexit thing is even more awesome than I thought. Where does the £450M figure come from Jamba?
Tariffs? They are paid by anyone importing goods to the UK, so basically it's a consumption tax that will raise prices, then add VAT in top of that so basically the population of the UK will pay £450m a week more in tax to the government.