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I wonder, for instance, how many of this thread’s contributors have had their minds changed in the last 18 months?
Does going from probably a bad idea, to the most monumental * up possible count?
In principle i am agnostic and if someone actually presented a reason why it might be a good idea fine, So where are the models supporting brexit? Where is the evidence that it will make life better, will improve the UKs infrastructure etc?
The only positive, it has highlighted just how * many of the UKs politicians are.
I wonder, for instance, how many of this thread’s contributors have had their minds changed in the last 18 months?
I thought that they might have presented some sort of vision for Brexit by now. I acknowledge how I underestimated quite how delusional some of them were.
I wonder, for instance, how many of this thread’s contributors have had their minds changed in the last 18 months?
When I hear a rational argument for it, without them shouting at me “sovereignty” or being governed by an unelected body - let’s face it the civil service runs the country anyway - I may be convinced
I just heard Barnier point out, yet again and with an air of surprise that he was being asked to do it, that the principles of the EU are part of what the EU is and the idea that these should be malleable to accommodate the UK puzzling, to put it politely. It’s the U.K. that wants to leave, not the other way round.
He also pointed out that the discussions were in their last phase. Raab then said they’ll discuss the question of NI with energy and commitment (or some similar empty waffle). Really? NOW you’re going to do that? You’ve got TWO MONTHS to bring it in after eighteen months of nothing?
Oh look, here comes the cliff edge and beyond, the abyssal...
I have learned a hell of a lot about trade agreements and also about how many countries laugh at our politicians. But not met anyone who has changed their mind. They all still expect the same benefits as now in Europe plus extra from all the new deals without any cost...
Hopefully if any good comes out of this it will be that experts will be required in the roles. Having someone with a political science degree as agriculture minister can stop and then people who understand agriculture can be put in that role...
I wonder, for instance, how many of this thread’s contributors have had their minds changed in the last 18 months?
I have changed my opinion on a few things in the last 18 months (abortion being a major one). And people must generally change their minds as the data backs up the fact that people get more right wing as they age. Maybe not in 18 months but they are changing over time And it is probably not down to anyone convincing them of anything, just greed and self protection kicking in.
<div class="bbp-reply-author">Cougar
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I wonder, for instance, how many of this thread’s contributors have had their minds changed in the last 18 months?
Some vocal brexiteers seem to have realised their arguments are too feeble to post any more.
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Honestly, I'm amenable to chance but I can't think of a single damn thing I've heard since the referendum that would go even one inch towards changing my mind. Not one good argument, not one worthwhile benefit. Leavers occasionally manage to land a telling blow like "it won't be quite as bad as you thought" and then don't seem to quite understand why we're not all delighted to hear we only now have to eat 9/10ths of a human shit which is way better than eating a whole one.
We’ll I think we’ll be better off financially. And we’ll be more democratic, less corruption, less multiculturalism… Lots to look forward to. Don’t listen to the doom and gloom!
What if we don't want less multiculturalism?
Anyway how will we be better off user with only one post?
We’ll I think we’ll be better off financially. And we’ll be more democratic, less corruption, less multiculturalism… Lots to look forward to. Don’t listen to the doom and gloom!
Bullshit.
Well for a start the EU is a protection racket, food is much cheaper outside the EU. As are many other things.
Then theres a whole world of opportunity outside the EU, trading on our own terms.
I personally think the UK will be thriving in 10 years time and we’ll all be wondering why we never got out earlier.
Vague bullshit.
Vague bullshit.
Yeah his second post, wonder who it is, guess Jamby is not coming back, could be ninfan trying not to shout leftie too quick
dannyh good debating skills you have there.
The food cheaper outside the EU Thing has been debunked as a Brexiter lie
So what brought you to the forum dickens
Might be ninfan, but it’s a bit lazy for him, nowhere near committed enough.
Might be THM (the ‘reluctant’ Brexiteer, but it’s too pro-leave).
Or obviously it might well be one of the usual suspects just trying a different tack.
You been taking my advice on checking people’s other posts Mike? 😎
David Davis own impact assessments reckon weklw be 5-8% of GDP worse off in 10 years
So Dickens blind optimism might need some backing up !
We’ll I think we’ll be better off financially.
Really? Why? None of the evidence points that way yet. Even JRM said so. Maybe my grandkids can expect to be as well off as my parents in 50 years time........
And we’ll be more democratic,
Not based on current experience, quite the opposite. Just look at all of the opposition against a second confirmatory vote.
less corruption,
As above, see Russia/Banks/BoJo/Farage/Big Red NHS Bus/JRM/etc.
less multiculturalism
Again, why is this in general a good thing?
Come on then Dickens, explain yourself in absolute detail, not just random generalisations from the Daily Mail, or that kn@b in the pub everyone eventually moves away from.
dannyh good debating skills you have there.
I just tailor them to the task at hand. No need to be wordy if you’re shooting fish in a barrel.
Pensioners have very little “skin in the game” and their decision will cast an economic shadow long after they have shuffled off this mortal coil.
I'll be a pensioner next year and I'll fight you in the street if necessary to retain my vote. I'm a remainer by the way and my suggestion would be that before you consider disenfranchising the elderly you consider removing voting rights for the thick, irrespective of age.
@igm, try too when a new name enters like they know the place, sticks out like wearing a bad wig and tash in your local you just got banned from
Why has this user opted to reply to the Brexit thread as their very first post on STW?
No mention of how to make tubeless work, what tyres for wet roots and whether that's a crack or a sticker beforehand.
Pensioners have very little “skin in the game” and their decision will cast an economic shadow long after they have shuffled off this mortal coil.
I’ll be a pensioner next year and I’ll fight you in the street if necessary to retain my vote. I’m a remainer by the way and my suggestion would be that before you consider disenfranchising the elderly you consider removing voting rights for the thick, irrespective of age.
Can't we just ban the English from voting?
I’ll be a pensioner next year and I’ll fight you in the street if necessary to retain my vote. I’m a remainer by the way and my suggestion would be that before you consider disenfranchising the elderly you consider removing voting rights for the thick, irrespective of age.
I agree wholeheartedly. We are in the mess that we're in because we've disenfranchised people, more disenfranchisement won't fix anything.
Unless the voter is a borderline cretin as so many are.
I really would like to hear more about why ‘less multiculturalism’ is a good thing, though, please.
Can’t we just ban the English from voting?
What trust our future to a tiny fraction pf the population?
I agree, but, changing minds is incredibly difficult. Once people start to realise that they might be wrong, they often dig in their heels and double-down.
I wonder, for instance, how many of this thread’s contributors have had their minds changed in the last 18 months?
Well, if you go back to the OP...
I am torn between both.
Part of me thinks more local decisions and less centralised is a Good Thing.
But part of me thinks it is working OK, and would it rock the boat lots to leave?
... I suspect a lot of people were quite ambivalent to the whole thing, but actually voting to Leave has concentrated minds somewhat
Here is something for you lot to think about. Crikey it's Washington Post ...
This is coming from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/05/16/a-revealing-map-of-the-worlds-most-and-least-ethnically-diverse-countries/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c1293143f720
Data source: Harvard Institute for Economic Research.
This is the quote (from one of the expert).
.• Strong democracy correlates with ethnic homogeneity. This does not mean that one necessarily causes the other; the correlation might be caused by some other factor or factors. But here's the paper's suggestion for why diversity might make democracy tougher in some cases:
The democracy index is inversely related to ethnic fractionalization (when latitude is not controlled for). This result is consistent with theory and evidence presented in Aghion, Alesina and Trebbi (2002). The idea is that in more fragmented societies a group imposes restrictions on political liberty to impose control on the other groups. In more homogeneous societies, it is easier to rule more democratically since conflicts are less intense.
Here's the money quote on the potential political implications of ethnicity:
In general, it does not matter for our purposes whether ethnic differences reflect physical attributes of groups (skin color, facial features) or long-lasting social conventions (language, marriage within the group, cultural norms) or simple social definition (self-identification, identification by outsiders). When people persistently identify with a particular group, they form potential interest groups that can be manipulated by political leaders, who often choose to mobilize some coalition of ethnic groups (“us”) to the exclusion of others (“them”). Politicians also sometimes can mobilize support by singling out some groups for persecution, where hatred of the minority group is complementary to some policy the politician wishes to pursue.
mikewsmith long time browser, fed up of all the negativity so came on here to spread some brexit cheer!
Lets start with multiculturalism. Its a grand delusion. Not my words but that of Angela Merkel.
To be fair immigration isn't a big deal for me in the brexit debate but I thought I would throw that in to give you a bone to chew on (-:
What's the name of that plastic stuff that used to be a popular football pitch substitute in the 1990s again?
Well lets hear your plan and what chance you think of getting the deal you need to make that happen
a brexiter with a plan, isnt that an oxymoron?
An end to multiculturalism.
And what does that mean, exactly?
I have no idea what chewkw is trying to say.
I wonder if he believed that stuff from Gove/Johnson about Turkey joining the EU next year.
It was a lie.
Managed immigration is of course good for the country but an open door policy is good for middle and high earners but not for low paid workers. Hence why many working class voters voted leave.
Kimbers, I didn't read it in the sun believe it or not. Its an indisputable fact that if we are on wto rules or we get a deal that allows us to set our own tarriffs then we could just set zero tarriffs on some imports that suit us. Before we joined the EEC we had cheaper food but we ended up with higher prices thanks to the EU. The EU is a socialist protection racket, we buy off eachother even though its cheaper elsewhere.
I really would like to hear more about why ‘less multiculturalism’ is a good thing, though, please.
You won't. Because it isn't.
I have no idea what chewkw is trying to say.
I wonder if he believed that stuff from Gove/Johnson about Turkey joining the EU next year.
It was a lie.
Read the interesting research article published by Harvard Institute for Economic Research.
Then compare your thoughts on multiculturalism to the factual published research data.
Actually Kimbers I do have a plan, well at least what I would like. A Canada style free trade agreement with no restrictions on services and no irish border.
Its an indisputable fact that if we are on wto rules or we get a deal that allows us to set our own tarriffs then we could just set zero tarriffs on some imports that suit us.
Name me 3 countries on WTO only
Before we joined the EEC we had cheaper food but we ended up with higher prices thanks to the EU. The EU is a socialist protection racket, we buy off eachother even though its cheaper elsewhere.
So we have a market for goods with protection for UK industry and a level playing field with greater bargaining power than the USA, remind me what the problem is?
A Canada style free trade agreement with no restrictions on services and no irish border.
ah well good luck
"A Canada style free trade agreement with no restrictions on services and no irish border."
I think you just described EU membership....
Kimbers, I didn’t read it in the sun believe it or not. Its an indisputable fact that if we are on wto rules or we get a deal that allows us to set our own tarriffs then we could just set zero tarriffs on some imports that suit us.
Im curious to know where you get your info about WTO tarifs? because you are very confused
Oh Dickens!
At least I got to type that......
Why don’t you stop the foreplay and just go for it?
How many posts before you start one with “You’ll probably think I’m racist, but......”?
Why did you state that ‘less multiculturalism’ is a good thing?
If you didn’t really mean it and you were just ‘throwing a bone’, then it’s back under the bridge for you.
pjm1974 I said 'less' multiculturalism. As stated this was a bit of bone I threw in, but theres no doubt multiculturalism causes social problems hence why countries encourage integration. Take the case of the Swiss immigration official that said no to the lady that wouldn't shake his hand, seems fair enough to me, maybe a bit extreme though. But Burkas need to go, there's no place for them in a civilised society.
Maybe Dickens can share his Northern Ireland solution for us ?
dickens
I also have a plan, it involves me inventing FTL travel so I can see I c-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate
Why did you state that ‘less multiculturalism’ is a good thing?
Look at the published research data above.
A Canada style free trade agreement with no restrictions on services and no irish border.
If you were the EU, and some other country wanted to leave and suggested that lot which basically undermines the entire framework of the EU, would you actually agree to it?
what the dickens!
as you have no idea about how WTO works
have a read http://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/no-deal-the-wto-option/
as the WTO is a cartel where other nations get to tell us what to do (unlike EU membership we dont get a vote on it or any elected representation) it will involve a significant loss of sovereihgnity
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41581705
(I call ninfan/labrat/zulu-11 btw)
welshfarmer fair enough I did miss out a bit! I missed out no jurisdiction of the ECJ, no restrictions of freedom of movement, freedom to trade worldwide. I realise its a tall order but lets see, aim high!
On the Irish border, there already is a border. Even if a more robust one was put in, I thinks there's around 200 entry points. Its just not realistic to put a hard border in and its unacceptable to the North and the Republic. Technology can play a part. Realistically 99% of goods going over the border will be a fella filling his van up with whatever is cheaper over the border. For heavy goods that are far easier to track it shouldn't be an issue.
are Z11 & chewy going all brexit because Trumps just had 3 court cases go against him & his cronies
Realistically 99% of goods going over the border will be a fella filling his van up with whatever is cheaper over the border.
but you said thered be less corruption?
Look at the published research data above.
you obviously didn't and just read the posts precis..... from the research papers conclusions the final paragraph....
However, it is difficult to evaluate precisely the size of these effects because of the strong correlation of ethnolinguistic fractionalization variables with other potential explanatory variables, especially geographical ones. In the end one has to use theory and priors to interpret our partial correlations.
what the dickens!
as you have no idea about how WTO works
have a read <span class="skimlinks-unlinked"> http://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/no-deal-the-wto-option</span>/
as the WTO is a cartel where other nations get to tell us what to do (unlike EU membership we dont get a vote on it or any elected representation) it will involve a significant loss of sovereihgnity
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41581705
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Kimbers not seen that article. Ive scanned through it and it does raise some questions. I'll have a better look tomorrow. WTO rules stipulate they can't discriminate so I guess if a countrys own tarriffs arent working or them they will just change them.
But I'm confident we'll get a deal. Probably not the wish list I would want but Mutter Merkel won't want to lose 15% of all german car sales.
Realistically 99% of goods going over the border will be a fella filling his van up with whatever is cheaper over the border.
but you said thered be less corruption?
Permitted if it is personal or small business use.
What if that fella was filling up his van full of people you didn't want in the country?
I don't understand how "controlling borders" and "having an uncontrolled border" tally up
Can’t we just ban the English from voting?
What trust our future to a tiny fraction pf the population?
Some folk just can't be trusted with important decisions and need to be protected for their own good.
What if that fella was filling up his van full of people you didn’t want in the country?
I don’t understand how “controlling borders” and “having an uncontrolled border” tally up
Anyone can get over a border if they are intrepid enough.
I realise its a tall order but lets see, aim high!
Given the shower of shit currently running negotiations for us, I don't think they'll hit the target.
Multiculturalism is not just people and the UK has been multicultural for generations.
Look at how many “stars” of the 60s and 80s were born in the old colonies. Look at the import of the Ugandan Asians, the people from the West Indies to help boost population after the Second World War or the importing of south East Asians to work in the mills in the midlands. All of this was before the EU....
It would seem people don’t mind multiculturalism as long as they can feel superior to the people coming in. Much harder to do with a white European.
as for the no border with NI I am all good with that as it means free movement of goods and people with the EU. Well actually free movement of anyone who can get into Ireland.
so you have shown twice now that you have no idea whatsoever how WTO works, youre pro small business & personal fraud/corruption & you dont like foreigners in the UK
yeah, busting all our remoaner prejudices here dickens
Oh Dickens!
At least I got to type that……
Why don’t you stop the foreplay and just go for it?
How many posts before you start one with “You’ll probably think I’m racist, but……”?
Why did you state that ‘less multiculturalism’ is a good thing?
If you didn’t really mean it and you were just ‘throwing a bone’, then it’s back under the bridge for you.
dannyh - I don't think multiculturalism in all our towns and cities is a good thing. I don't see that as being racist and presumably neither does angela merkel. Maybe you're confusing multiculturalism with multiracial (which I like).
Given the shower of shit currently running negotiations for us, I don’t think they’ll hit the target.
Slowoldman - can't argue with you there..
However, it is difficult to evaluate precisely the size of these effects because of the strong correlation of ethnolinguistic fractionalization variables with other potential explanatory variables, especially geographical ones. In the end one has to use theory and priors to interpret our partial correlations.
That style of conclusion is normal practice in journal published in relation to "social" research. The research started by referring to "social construct" and hence the "disclaimer" to avoid positivism. If the article is to insist on a "strong correlations" in the final conclusion then it may be seen as inconsistent with the methodology i.e. social construct, then it might not be published at all.
If the research did not find something "interesting" then those points I quoted above will not even be mentioned in the article. The fact that those points are being mentioned and published only show that they found something interesting and some truth.
What’s the name of that plastic stuff that used to be a popular football pitch substitute in the 1990s again?
Well, I laughed.
Its an indisputable fact that if we are on wto rules
As I understand it, we don't automatically default to WTO. We have to be approved, and that's like over 100 countries. Anyone have anything concrete on whether that's right or not?
I don’t see that as being racist and presumably neither does angela merkel. Maybe you’re confusing multiculturalism with multiracial (which I like).
Would you care to explain the difference, please?
Don't.ypu think there'll be a problem.if we have zero import tariffs? Why do you think tariffs exist?
Its an indisputable fact that if we are on wto rules
As I understand it, we don’t automatically default to WTO. We have to be approved, and that’s like over 100 countries. Anyone have anything concrete on whether that’s right or not?
Shouldn't we have a referendum on whether or not we join the WTO - an unelected body over which we have no control?
Chewkw.
Did you even read the paper or did you just read the article, look at the colour of the UK in the picture and think that it shows we’re not multicultural?
1. It’s based on data from the encyclopaedia britannica, which in turn is based upon sampling and old census data.
2. It relies (in part at least) upon the primary language being different to the country norm. This assumes that to get multiculturalism, you need a different language. Many second generation Indians in the UK still celebrate Indian traditions but don’t speak Hindi as a primary language. These same people would identify as British, not Indian.
3. When testing their metric scores, they called a random pair of numbers and asked about their ethnicity. In such a circumstance, who’s most likely to reply? Those with the least concern about someone asking about their ethnicity over the phone perhaps?
There have been several rebuttal papers about this work which was published over 16 years ago using data from 25 years ago.
Chewkw.
Did you even read
You could have stopped typing there TBH.
so you have shown twice now that you have no idea whatsoever how WTO works, youre pro small business & personal fraud/corruption & you dont like foreigners in the UK
yeah, busting all our remoaner prejudices here dickens
Kimbers wow you're quite the extrapolator.
Nothing in the article prevents us from trading under wto, it just suggests there will be some adjustment to quotas and tarriffs. As stated I don't like corruption, and I also stated that a certain amount of goods could be permissible without checks or duty. Looks like you and dannyh are both confusing multiculturalism with multi racialism. Multi racialism = good multiculturalism = bad.
So now the Americans look like they are rectifying their moment of madness
isnt it time we ditched ours?
exitbrexit!
OT, but can someone send me a link to Killfile for Chrome?
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An end to multiculturalism.
Britain is absolutely, to the roots, multicultural- we're a mongrel nation made out of every body of people that worked out how to float, plus a bunch more that we went and abducted. The closest thing we have to a national religion we imported from the middle east, most of our culture we either nicked from people who invaded us or people we invaded, and don't even start on the language, the royal family are german and the very first Britons were immigrants. And St George was from the EU
So what's the exact date that "British" was set and anything after that was bad multiculturalism? I mean, my family migrated here in longboats about a thousand years ago,is that far enough? How about those most british of people, the anglo-saxons, do they get sent back to Germany?
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Everything we are is multicultural and so is pretty much everyone else, and have been ever since Ug walked over big hill to show Zog how to make fire.
Check the post history and then report. Sock puppet.
but you told us that food under WTO wood be cheaper, this was undisputable?
you also said small business & personal corruption was fine
race is a false construct , culture is dynamic
Multi racialism = good multiculturalism = bad.
How do you think non white people got to the UK? They were not magicked in by the invisible sky monkey....
Looks like you and dannyh are both confusing multiculturalism with multi racialism. Multi racialism = good multiculturalism = bad.
I imagine what you man by that is Johnny Foreigner can move in here but can't continue to perform any of those "strange" beliefs and practices. They must become more British than St. George. Oh hang on...
More British than queen victoria?
kimbers happy to debate but you making stuff up is just silly (as my teacher used to say 'its your time your wasting you know...'.
I said that it is indisputable that we can set our own tarriffs. I also said that food outside the eu is cheaper. I didn't say this is indisputable but theres plenty of info out there to support that.
Northwind - I think the issue on multiculturalism (and again this isn't a big issue for me, I voted leave for other reasons) is of different cultures coming to your towns and cities and not integrating with a progressive creep towards transforming areas. For many people these are serious issues. I think multi racialism is a positive thing and something to be celebrated.
There have been several rebuttal papers about this work which was published over 16 years ago using data from 25 years ago.
Show me the published journals. i.e. actually published and Not a Discussion paper as in June 2002 ( https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=319762 )
Ok they published it in 2003 ... nevertheless ...
Quote from above Abstract.
We partly confirm and partly modify previous results.
^^^ that quote from Abstract is interesting ...
Also if you read the full paper you will realise that their Conclusion adopted the same tone ("disclaimer") as the previous paper even when their discussion paper is much more "positivist".
Additionally, are they actually measuring the same variables as they openly admitted that they change them?