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Baaaaaahhh
I have not dismissed zippy’s position, although I would suggest that (1) brexit is not the only variable that determines the demand for luxury chocolates and (2) other factors are moving in a manner that is not as bad as first feared
But he is the expert. It’s his choses market to concentrate on and his responsibility to manage the value drivers or his business. It’s not anyone else’s
I would suggest that luxury chocolates are not a commodity item so he will have others ways of competing. If not and if his business is totally dependent on the movement of exchange rates and price competition then it’s not a great business to be in with or without Brexshit
Mol. If Brexshit turns out badly, I may have to relocate myself and family at a time when I have aging relatives that need care. I may lost my job. Life’s shit at times isn’t it? We adapt - sometimes to good things sometimes to bad things. There is nothing new in that.
zippy is not unique
I appreciate that THM. What I don't understand is your point.
You're saying it's not going to be as bad as people are saying. Ok, that's great. You seem light on details though? Is it just a hunch or faith in the system or what?
In fact, why are we bickering at all? I don't think THM deserves most of this, I think people are just mis-reading what's being said here.
Well let’s take it step by step
1. The outcome from Brexshit vote has proved to be much less severe than our side projected in order to scare people. The detail and facts are clear. The forecasts were only close on £ and inflation. Details
2. We have progressed beyond the levels that many stated could not be breached. We are now focusing on trade and the EU are being clear that an FTA is the mutually desired outcome. Details
3. We are starting to see how regulatory equivalence might work across many industries and that there is a mutual recognition here. Details
so we didn’t want Brexshit. But it’s going to happen. So far, the outcome has been better than feared and we are making progress on trade from which much of the rest is derived.
I just look at what is in front of me.
Are you not missing the elephant in the room THM, that the cabinet still have not decided on what final outcome they want from Brexit?
Davis added a tiny bit of clarity today by suggesting that we'd seek regulatory alignment, effectively making us rule takers, alignment will mean that brexit bill now has a chance of keeping devolved govs happy & getting through lords, but will leave the swivel-eyed frothing
+ The Irish border problem kicked into the long grass for now (despite brexiters now attacking the GFA!)
Brexit as sold never mentioned compromise, but obviously thats what we will have to accept, the egos of the brexiters able to accept this ?
It’s odd to sell a process of negotiation that didn’t involve conpromise
If there was no compromise what is the purpose of the negotiations?
both the cabinet and the shadow cabinet and the Europeans are split on the boundaries of compromises (assuming that this happens)
We have progressed beyond the levels that many stated could not be breached.
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Who are these "many"? Since all the people I saw saying it couldnt be breached were dealing with the fantasy claims of the brexit idiots. In several cases the UK backed down and in others its just been postponed. So exactly as people were predicting outside of the always possible factor that the brexit loonies would completely scupper everything.</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Which still cant be ruled out. Ninfans position isnt a 100 miles from some MPs.</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Also for someone going on about details you sure arent keen on them.</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">
As it happens: I suspect some half arsed compromise will occur which will leave us with all the downsides, plus some new ones, and fewer upsides to what we have now.</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">It does have the risk though:</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Brexit loonies either wanting FREEDOM or just some asset stripping during a firesale undermining it.</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">All those brexit voters realising that instead of getting unicorns they are if anything worse off than before.</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Once all the individual EU countries get involved having a really messy deal with countries wanting various things and screwing up the deal for the EU as a whole and the UK.</span>
The fact May cant organise a piss up in a brewery and might screw it up through sheer ineptitude.
Forumites
1. The outcome from Brexshit vote has proved to be much less severe than our side projected in order to scare people. The detail and facts are clear. The forecasts were only close on £ and inflation. Details
I didn't check at the time, did the forecasts include the softening of any impact via the BoE measures that were put in place?
2. We have progressed beyond the levels that many stated could not be breached. We are now focusing on trade and the EU are being clear that an FTA is the mutually desired outcome. Details
Yep the UK wasted nearly 9 months and a lot of good will to get to just about the day 1 position. As predicted, the impact of these things especially around the NI border is very important and has bound the UK to an extent.
3. We are starting to see how regulatory equivalence might work across many industries and that there is a mutual recognition here. Details
Far too late but a start, we will get something, some industries will struggle because of it, some will go under. Key ones will have some attempt to look after them but others will just be lost in "details"
Again the huge amount of work that needs to be done in an ever shortening timescale is a huge worry, the chances of everything being in place are slim and the transition will be a rocky one. The cost to the UK economy of diverting funds for all these projects is currently unknown and a risk. The simple question of how do we pay for all this is not being addressed at all.
But still march on we do, the it's not going to be quite as bad as the worst case scenario just isn't snappy, who's got a better one? At least it's our shit we just stepped in?
It is a worry, true, which is why it was so odd that so many chose to side with the EU position - must be combination of myopia and pathological hatred of the Tories. Either way, not very helpful when we needed to get on with it.
It’s odd to sell a process of negotiation that didn’t involve conpromise
Freudian typo?
It is a worry, true, which is why it was so odd that so many chose to side with the EU position
You really don't get that bit do you?
It's possible to have an opinion on the process without taking sides, it's not the school playground. Many people see what a truly awful job the government is doing here. Scant regard for parliamentary process, contempt for select committees and the contradictory statements
We all hope the UK does well but a lot of people see the eu as being more mature, right on many issues and doing what is in their best interest. Waving some flags and chanting let em ave it dave isn't going to change a thingt
😀
The other thing that is making people a little annoyed I think, THM, is that you are telling US that we should be 'getting on with it and not moaning'. Well most of us are pretty powerless, and feeling it, so that grates. It's not like we are all economists consulting to the civil service or whoever.
No really
And they aided with those interests too - as I said myopia or pathological hatred of Tories. I could also add undemocratic too. But that’s a bit of a deal nerve isn’t it?
Not at all mol. It’s up to everyone to decide how to respond.
No one is powerless unless they choose to be.
If people prefer to not move on, to dwell in the past, to make things up about the present and to unnecessarily fear the future, then that is their prerogative. It’s a free world....
No it just gets you the ignore the troll bin for a while.
Trite and supercilious again THM ? Plus ca change.
Well Davis has just conceded that we will still be following EU regs on car mfr , pharma & even state aid!
Which almost sounds like a hint of a plan, if also a loss of sovereignty
Problem is that Davis' reputation for honesty has been thoroughly trashed, just look at his impact assessments that do/don't exist!
😀
I have been following this thread for a while and feel that the 'debate has long since been poisoned to the extent that there is no purpose adding to it.
So just my two pence worth:
Remember that the future is not written yet. If you believe that the UK is on the wrong path then consider supporting political bodies and pressure groups supporting your world view rather than just arguing on the web.
This could be 'remain, it could be 'leave but stay close", it could be 'clean break', it could be anything you wish. You may not achieve miracles, but it will make you feel better!
Ignore those who tell you that campaigning for your view is anti democratic.
No one is powerless unless they choose to be.
What bollocks.
Is that a technical flip chart term or a real luxury confectionary term, mol?
Sit back and enjoy the "mad max" or "slightly annoyed Rees Mogg" post Brexit landscape.
Thing is our politicians (unelected or ambitious) are actually going to have to come up with some "suggestions" on the Brexit journey in the very near future.
I can't wait...
It's going to be a cunning plan...
Here's my forecast...
May and Davis cave on FOM to keep the boat afloat and parity on all things EU remain in place
Rees Mogg explodes....
Boris does nothing
Gove steps back into the shadows
Jezza claims an indirect labour victory
The great unwashed all wail for a Farage "return"
We are all a little worse off (spiritual and financial)
Aaaaand as predicted the swivel-eyed Tories none too happy with Davis' regulatory alignment today.
At least may has a strong enough majority to, ... oh wait......
Shut up this is democracy
I like the way that the private and confidential letter remained that way for a full four days 🙂
On the plus side it gives May a chance to demonstrate who is in charge and slap them down. Oh wait...
Odd that they mention Lancaster House speech and then make suggestions that immediate conflict with the goals laid out in it.
But no wonder they are so noisy - they are losing the debate here
“If you believe that the UK is on the wrong path then consider supporting political bodies and pressure groups supporting your world view rather than just arguing on the web.”
It is possible to do both of these things.
I’ve been in the air for 9 hours.
It seems the only thing that’s changed is there is a definitive list of swivel eyed loons - just over 60 I think.
When I left the government were threatening to u-turn in the settling of the bill as well as some loons suggesting they didn’t like the GFA anyway - is that still the same?
Did they specify exactly how many unicorns they want in their letter?
But no wonder they are so noisy – they are losing the debate here
Of course they are losing the debate at the moment but bit shows that the brexit delivered will satisfy very few people. Also these 60 could decide to start a little tory bloodshed if they wanted as I'm sure some of their backers and supporters will be getting very frustrarted.
Why they don't just shut up and respect the will of the people is a mystery
The debate that matters isn't the one taking place here. Not so clear who is winning the debate in the HoC.
Its all sabre-rattling. They won't do a bloody thing to bring May down. If they had the balls they'd have done it by now. She should grow a pair and call their bluff. She won't, of course. She's too weak, timid and feeble
There was an interesting take on this in yesterdays Guardian - Pity the 52%. Led by cowards and charlatans
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/20/brexit-52-ukip-leavers
Its difficult to argue with this statement:
A large faction of Tory MPs take a Faragist view of that method. They see compromise with the EU as treason. They have the numbers to oust May, yet they don’t. Why not? If the nation’s destiny is at stake and the prime minister is failing, surely Jacob Rees-Mogg and friends feel a moral duty to replace her.
She's weak, timid and feeble, but she's braver than them!! They'll issue dictats and throw insults from the sidelines but they've no interest of taking ownership and responsibility, and therefore direct blame for any of it
Too ashamed to lead their own project
Seems clear who is winning at the moment. The timid one with balls is surprising everyone
Well, I've been writing to Damian Green (my MP) for some time now requesting a definitive list of the MPs in the European Research Group and I guess we now know who they are. No real surprises to be seen.
I've read through a great deal of reports and papers written by politicians for Brexit, but there's virtually nothing there about how to arrest stagnation of salaries, affordability of homes, how to create sustainable employment and how limiting immigration will benefit our economy. I'm more concerned about what's unsaid - i.e. that regulatory alignment with the EU will require investment in agencies that will need to be duplicated from those across the channel and the obvious temptation to race to the bottom with deregulation. What does "deregulation" actually mean and what's the net result for everyone?
Interestingly, Corbyn has at long last committed to some kind of Customs Union, but surely he must understand that we cannot simply have a bespoke arrangement put in place without concession on our part.
Interesting times.
As an aside - I'm genuinely interested in the thoughts of those on here who do support a clean break with the EU and what they think Britain will look like ten years hence. I assume that Jamba and Ninfan are in favour of a hard Brexit clean break arrangement and would be keen to read their feedback.
Is it me, or is no real concrete, agreed progress on Brexit actually being made?
Listening to all the politicians and reporters the last few days we seem to have not agreed anything, other than not agreed to agree and carry on agreeing to try and find agreement, on the timescale for when agreement is needed....
Is it me, or is no real concrete, agreed progress on Brexit actually being made?
We've just asked for an extension, hahahaha!
It’s you
Everyone should vote for Corbyn. He is going to deliver a jobs first Brexshit AND combine being in a CU with ability to negotiate separate trade deals with RoW. No one comes close to Jezza
Diversion tactics away from Tory infighting, THM?
its the EU california, we can check out, but we can never leave
its only been 40 years of whining & 20 months since the vote, Brexies still dont have a plan
To think May & co can make a brexit that maintaines the 'red lines' & satisfy business, teh Leavers & the rest of the electorate, even after 2 years of vassal state transition is pretty ambitous
especially as Johnson, Mogg & the other swivel-eyed undermine her at every opportunity
Barnier and his gang of idiots should probably visit the war graves in France, say a thankyou for all the British and Commonwealth soldiers that gave their lives to free his country from the grips of fascism and then consider the 140 billion we had to borrow from the US to fight another European war....adjusted for today's money and with a quick history lesson he should then wind his neck in and reconsider the EU negotiating position and what the divorce bill should be.
Ungrateful prick.
While your digging through history, a large number of Native Americans and Aboriginal Australians would like a word.
The people of the Indian Subcontinent and SE Asia would like their back pay along with all the slaves from Africa that helped build the British Empire for free.
deviant have you been on the sauce with Juncker & Davis at lunch time by any chance?
youll never keep up!
Barnier and his gang of idiots should probably visit the war graves in France, say a thankyou for all the British and Commonwealth soldiers that gave their lives to free his country from the grips of fascism and then consider the 140 billion we had to borrow from the US to fight another European war….adjusted for today’s money and with a quick history lesson he should then wind his neck in and reconsider the EU negotiating position and what the divorce bill should be.
nicely forget the russian efforts in defeating Nazi Germany, 80% of all german armour was on the eastern front, but hey ho right wing revisionist history
I must not feed the swivel eyed loon.
I must not feed the swivel eyed loon.
I must not feed the swivel eyed loon.
I must not feed the swivel eyed loon.
I must not feed the swivel eyed loon.
I must not feed the swivel eyed loon.
Barnier and his gang of idiots should probably visit the war graves in France, say a thankyou for all the British and Commonwealth soldiers that gave their lives to free his country from the grips of fascism and then consider the 140 billion we had to borrow from the US to fight another European war….adjusted for today’s money and with a quick history lesson he should then wind his neck in and reconsider the EU negotiating position and what the divorce bill should be.Ungrateful prick.
You can’t even be bothered to make your own shit up - I assume you forgot to add that you’ve copied and pasted that from elsewhere.
EDIT: Apart from:
Ungrateful prick.
Which AFAIR, the newspaper didn’t print.
You can't beat some good old-fashioned jingoistic flag-waving
You forgot to mention 1966 and the World Cup though, so you lose Farage points. Cheers anyway though....
Aye. Better not to think about us spending the money & lives to stop Operation Sealion. Perhaps we better thank those pesky Europeans for letting us mess up their countries to defeat Germany rather than face a land war on British soil.
Except that people who were in the war tend to be remainers. So people like deviant are appropriating other people's sacrifices for their own political purposes. Talk about stooping low. Have you no ****ing shame?
Blimey - i though deviant was being sarcastic?!?
am I wrong?
I think that the revisionist approach to history that we fought WW2 alone and won everybody's freedom from Fascism and therefore the continent owes us a blood debt isn't terribly helpful and only serves to illustrate a sense of entitlement that from a third party point of view must be horribly offensive.
So far as I can see, the main loser in any hard Brexit scenario is us - specifically those of us who live in locations that rely upon a cross border supply chain (aerospace, automotive, manufacturing) or who rely on the trading rules of the bloc to standardise and supplement incomes that would otherwise be unviable (employment rights, farming).
In any case, none of the Brexit scenarios on the table (including Remain) specifically address legitimate grievances about affordable housing, wage stagnation, wealth inequality, austerity, quality jobs with long term prospects, erosion of state benefits (pension, working tax credits etc.) that motivated many people to vote Leave in the first instance.
its the EU california, we can check out, but we can never leave
Beautifully put
am I wrong?
Do your own research its all there, more patronising twaddle, weak insinuation you have been drinking, lament about how everyone has a go at me etc
Oooh this is good....
May and Hammond have very little power (but just enough)
Rees Mogg and the swivel eyed have less power and no bollocks (let's send a stern letter) Maggie would be disgusted by the bunch of wet blankets.
The perfect storm of indecision...
Boris has a sweat on that he might end up with a proper job...
Gove is pissing up the legs of the Farming communities whilst plotting their demise.
Fox looks confused...
Jezza needs to shut the **** up and let someone with a brain take charge.
I genuinely have not laughed out loud at politicians since spitting image was on the Telly.
I don't give a shit what happens anymore but the entertainment/Machiavellian output is fantastic.
Off to the Daily Mail blog to wind up nutters....
Tomorrows headlines: Please can we have an extension? Larry the cat from No. 10 ate our homework, it's so unfair!
Given deviant’s previous THM I think he’s serious.
Misguided but serious.
If he actually cared about British or Commonwealth war dead he’d be supporting the EU. But I don’t think he’s worked that out yet. Hey ho.
Beats the curling for entertainment value though.
(I don’t mean deviant - I mean the whole political “bit of a mess”)
At various points, right from her decision to appoint those 3 half-wits to the positions in charge of managing the whole debacle, i’ve Had the recurring thought...
is May, as a remainer, actually playing an absolute blinder here, like some Machivellian genius just pretending to be clueless?
the quiet request of what could be an endless ‘transition period’ would point again to this?
or is that just wishful thinking on my behalf and she really is as clueless as she seems?
It does seem increasingly that these supposed self-titled ‘hardline Brexiteers’ are just all piss and wind, and there’s not one of them prepared to put their money where their more than ample mouth is
Thanks IGM - there are only a few names that I recognise - or simply ignore in the case of the chief troll - so when I first read it, I assumed it was a piss take!!
how is Canada ?
So is this what taking back control looks like?
Agreed to EUs negotiation schedule- no parallel trade talks (row of the summer never materialised)
Agreed to pay EU divorce bill (that Davis didn't recognise a week b4)
Agreed to EU demands in citizens rights & no hard border in NI- Stays in CU if no deal
Now agreed to follow EU rules in transition, same rights for EU new arrivals & continued FOM, no trade deals allowed, no veto on new laws.....
Wonder what's coming next in round 2 of the talks?
Bit really rich to expect anything else in transition period.
You may have missed what happened in phase 1 though kimbers. The KY has still to be unwrapped.
Odd that we now have a remoaner red bus with lies on it. What happened to rising above the Brexshiteers BS or is the new bus merely indicative that the BS baton had been full passed on?
I imagine Deviant's quote relates to when Barnier made some injudicious remarks about security, although that was a few months ago now unless I have missed a more recent example. It may have been then that I pointed out French hypocrisy.
Except that people who were in the war tend to be remainers.
I don't think this is the case.
If he actually cared about British or Commonwealth war dead he’d be supporting the EU.
I don't think this follows either.
Borrowing down
Productivity up
We should do this doomsday stuff more often .....
Some people are never happy are they?
I know. I gave someone a choice of a punch in the balls or a kick in the balls and the ungrateful sod didnt want either.
😂
If he actually cared about British or Commonwealth war dead he’d be supporting the EU.
I don’t think this follows either.
Then we disagree. Which is fine.
Brexit isn't going to happen, because let's face it, it's flipping rediculous.
What's happening now is the grown ups are doing a protracted damage limitation exercise.
Yes it's costly, the whole fiasco has probably set the UK back 10 years, but that's damage already done now, there's no going back from that.
The only possible way to make anything good out of this is to fool the brexiters into thinking they are getting back the power that they already had, and never lost because nothing actually changed, which is actually quite easy considering that it's true, and brexiters are utterly dumb..
"The people voted for a Mad Max dystopia and so your Conservative government will implement a Mad Max dystopia"
"But we just voted for fiery guitars!"
"You knew what you were voting for!"
"But you only said fiery guitars!"
"Traitor!"
Did we vote for fiery guitars… or just against rules, and for simplicity…?
A good twitter thread…
https://twitter.com/garrethhayes/status/965318168028819456
Utterly dumb yet they beat us!
Who are the fools?
On what grounds do you assume that we have been set back by 10 years?
Who are the fools?
Mostly, those who voted for the nonsensical non-plan of wishful thinking and scapegoating known as brexit.
Next!
Seems like mogg & co are just recycling 20 year old satire
Thanks @Kimbers … was the big BSE **** up 20 years ago?!? Blimey. That was the last time I was race fit!
Two dogs that is once again scary reading.
Maybe our resident leavers would care to tell us exactly how that will be resolved.
This time I would like facts rather than “it will be alright , I’m sure it will all sort itself out.”
What use is a blue passport if you can’t go anywhere with it?