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Depends if you want context or not doesnt it.
@mike it says if the EU/UK fail to reach an agreement on financial services it could be bad for market stability. In very simple terms Europeans come to UK to borrow money and to buy and sell investments. Without easy access to London Europe will suffer, there are no tariffs on financial services just regulatory (non-tariff barriers) so its not a matter of price (eg as per UK buying goods with additional WTO tariffs or doing a free trade deal elsewhere or even just unilaterally setting tariffs lower). They can either access markets or not. Trying to relocate these markets isn’t about moving a few hundred or even thousand people it much more complicated. As Osbourne said if Europe can’t access London its likely the business will go to New York. Trying to replicate them in Europe would take a very long time and many billions of investment by European Governments in regulatory infrastructure (people and systems)
Clearly I like everyone else have not had a chance to read the draft 15 year economic forecasts which have been much in the press. As far as I can make out these forecasts are something like
Under WTO Brexit Northern Irish Economy will grow by something like 22% over 15 years. Now of course all we are reading about is “hits”, seems to me this is because these same models forecast that under “Remain in the EU” scenario they say the NI economy will grow by 34% ... hence the 12% hit. Firstky these are massively discredited models having been used to forecast instant recession etc but also economic models can get 6 or 12 month forecasts right so 15 years is just total guesswork.
Under WTO Brexit Northern Irish Economy will grow by something like 22% over 15 years
Name the countries oo wto only
More good Brexit news. Oh sorry. It's not about money so it doesn't count.
<span style="font-size: 12.8px;">"</span>Wasn’t “high degree of regulatory alignment” pretty much the precise form of words that Hammond was slapped down so firmly for using?"
Yes. However it what we need to solve the NI border issue and is an anathema to Davies
What a very odd mistake to make
Mikesmith - where is that from? All it is is a list of hopes - nowt concrete not even any discussion of by what mechanisms they will achieve their hopes and Istill see no reasonat allwhy allthe work will not simply go intothe EU - far easier for the EU folk.
It’s from those lightweights in the House of Lords TJ, plus senior partners from magic circle law firms, regulators, bankers. No one important
best ignored from your perspective.
Thank you THM. And I agree that the first couple of paragraphs make sense (to someone of my limited education - neither of my degrees are financial or economic).
But - and it’s a big but (anyone channeling the Sir Mix-a-Lot?) - you could substitute the whole of Brexit in there where they talk about financial separation and the paragraphs would make equal sense.
Now Mr Davis criticised some plans, calling them "political" and "unwise"today - he wasn’t talking about Brexit but he should have been.
The UK has done something stupid with Brexit, the EU may well follow suite - why would folk suddenly stop over financial services?
Between 45-70% of EU financial services takes place in London for good reasons. No other EU centre can replicate this. Hence the comments about fragmentation..,
if the EU are stupid they may set this (fragmentation) in motion. The losers? Their corporates and household who will have a smaller pool of capital offered at a higher price. Plus if we want to be nasty we simply engage in regaulatory arbitrage.
So it won’t happen - the EU are not fools simply showmen
the increased volume of noise including today’s threats is them recognising that a hard Brexshit is really shit for them too. TM and co are doing a surprisingly good job at letting them sweat. Hopefully after today we will threaten hard ball again. Like internet bullies they should be stood up to
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Between 45-70% of EU financial services takes place in London for good reasons. No other EU centre can replicate this. Hence the comments about fragmentation..,
I seem to recall the miners, manufacturers, steel workers, ship builders etc. all having that much faith.
TM and co are doing a surprisingly good job at letting them sweat. Hopefully after today we will threaten hard ball again. Like internet bullies they should be stood up to
And like all internet hardmen/women they will bang on to their chosen audience and then bottle it when faced with actually doing something. I'm sure you understand the difference between a strong position and a weak one.
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Forgive me THM, but shifting people (particularly when many of them aren’t from London originally) and some comms links plus a few servers looks easier than shifting large factories - yet the factories shifted.
Confidence should always be tempered by consideration and anyone who says “ah this is different, it can’t happen is probably wrong”.
Probably won’t happen is different from can’t.
Yes I do thanks.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42994640
So DD is doing a Trump, chief council THM and Jamby? are you 2 the crack team of grown ups who every day have to get up and wonder how your boss just ****ed you again.
Reading between the lines, divided cabinet, EU losing patience with all the posturing and telling the UK what happens if we continue to dick about and not deal with stuff.
Comes a moment where you realise either you didn't read the rules or the game is rigged against you, either way it's too late.
Considering that section of the draft agreement is obviously in reaction to DD saying one thing to the EU then refuting it when he gets home I think it is quite reasonable for the EU to want some quick way of applying sanctions if / when the tories do not uphold the agreements they have made
😀
While you're right about DD's duplicity… it's nothing compared to some of the people the EU peeps can see might be in power after April Fools Day next year… the likes of Mogg will look for every opportunity to screw over our partners and break the spirit of any transition agreement. "We" can't be trusted anymore.
Take back control....
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/09/northern-ireland-will-stay-in-single-market-after-brexit-eu-says
Would the mainland GB be able to trade with NI tariff free?
"Would the mainland GB be able to trade with NI tariff free?"
Only if we keep 'full regulatory alignment' with NI. Works for me..
There is no way on gods protestant earth the children of the Ulster plantation will accept the mainland being different from the colony .... sorry territory.
roflcopters all round here
Have our glorious leaders( or our people in the know on here )told us how this frictionless border will work yet?
they have made plans, sensible plans, read Mays speech or the Report to the Select committee. It a there if you just google and can understand. Dont believe the reactionary remoaners. Plan to adapt or adapt the plan
Whilst he is off I will play the typing without saying anything cryptic aloof condescending role 🙄
So the EU annexes NI - no really
have Whitbread acquired The Guardisn to boost Costa sales?
Comedy Central
There is no way on gods protestant earth the children of the Ulster plantation will accept the mainland being different from the colony …. sorry territory.
It's going to infuriate all the people you would want it to.
the gov agreed to maintain a 'frictionless' border
theyve still not come up for an alternative to staying in the CU/SM
of course alternate methods of broder control do exist
I was just going to mention Dave's fleet of magic unicorns and fairy folk
Its either that or... you know... technology'n'shit, yeah?
robo unicorns?
It’s going to infuriate all the people you would want it to.
The problem with that is that Northern Ireland can get a bit Kalashnikoffy when that happens. Something that I don't personally think anyone in government is taking remotely seriously enough
So the EU annexes NI – no really
No the UK signed up to various agreements and deals with various groups and nations, it has decided to get out of some of them. So far the UK has not come up with a solution that works and satisfies it's ongoing obligations. The EU is simply pointing out the outcome of certain paths.
It's as if the UK jumped straight in with no planning or though or even some basic reading.
Is there really any point talking about anything else til this is resolved?
more remoaner doom & gloom
<span style="font-size: 12.8px;"> https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-09/greece-is-up-and-the-u-k-is-down-since-brexit-vote</span>
Trying to relocate these markets isn’t about moving a few hundred or even thousand people it much more complicated. As Osbourne said if Europe can’t access London its likely the business will go to New York. Trying to replicate them in Europe would take a very long time and many billions of investment by European Governments in regulatory infrastructure (people and systems)
And
Between 45-70% of EU financial services takes place in London for good reasons. No other EU centre can replicate this
This is a genuine question, so I'd welcome the views of people who know more about it than me, but...
A big argument used against increasing taxes and regulation on banking was "but if we do that they'll all leave and the UK will lose a load of tax revenue".
And now the two people closest to that sector (on here, anyway) are saying that actually the UK bankers (and the organisations/staff/systems that support them) couldn't/wouldn't leave because there's nowhere else that can accommodate them.
So which is it?
edit: FFS, why does pressing the quote button create a load of SPAN formatting crap?. It's absolute rubbish.
and how can anybody with any credibility say "between 45-70%" Seems like it's a hard number to pin down, 45% is something that can quickly become 25% without anyone really noticing.
Anyway there is a chapter in the lean thinking improvements book that goes through some case studies, all in places that were too big, too complex, too specialist for these techniques to be used. Turns out they are not, the more somebody tells you they are too special or too different they are flapping and trying to come up with a better reason why they don't want something to happen.
A handy reminder there that the USA is likely to be the real winner long term (in this and other sectors) as a result of a smaller EU (and an even smaller splitter state).
balls, I think an x% loss is completely devastating when the tories want an excuse to not do something but absolutely necessary when it's the only way they can hold their party together for a few more weeks.
Honestly you think they'd be better off in the long term sorting themselves out rather than ****ing up the country for as long as they are still standing. But then again, a week is long-term in a politician's mind.
Anyone else wondering what the Express sale will do to Brexit reporting?
Maybe nothing.
Well I heard they have a 3 year stockpile of headlines for Bexit and Dianna somewhere so they should be able to just plan them in now. It does seem like it's the sort of paper that is just pushing the AI thing a bit, only a skeleton crew in there to make sure the right weather headline is selected etc.
Though given how gullible the average reader appears to be you could gently coax them all to a completely different view point over a couple of years, only down side is they might die off faster than you can convert them.
You could have some fun though "Selling your house and moving to the arctic reduces cancer risk"
How Mike ?
Simple. Those “with” credibility as opposed to those who make things up, are aware that the UKs market share varies by product. So in the case of European equity capital markets London has a 45% share. In certain derivatives areas the share is around 70%
hence an accurate description includes reference to the fact that market shares vary by product. Simple really, if you stick to facts
We agree Kelvin. NY is smiling - they are the only real rival to London here. Note that each U.K. bank has chosen different centres in Europe indicating clearly that no one centre has the ability to replicate London.
FFS, why does pressing the quote button create a load of SPAN formatting crap?
It doesn't - it's the pasting. When you copy someone's post it now copies the HTML formatting, which gets submitted and turned back into text when you submit the post.
Right click and select 'paste and match style' in Chrome, there's probably an alternative paste option in other browsers. You want to paste text only, essentially.
Simple. Those “with” credibility as opposed to those who make things up, are aware that the UKs market share varies by product. So in the case of European equity capital markets London has a 45% share. In certain derivatives areas the share is around 70%
Ah so 2 figures that are meaningless without further details, For instance 45% of 90% and 70% of 10% isn't that much, flip it around it's a lot.
But as said, the last thing anyone said before their job was shipped off somewhere else was there is no way we will leave....
Also the point about taxes is very interesting when people try and say that increased taxes will cause an exodus (hence why we can't do it) but there is no chance Brexit will cause people to leave. Spinning the same thing in opposite directions there.
On the contrary they accurately summarise the range of the Uks mkt share
no one is saying 45% of 90
no really you just have to think rather than mixing things up to deliberately confuse
does pressing the quote button create a load of SPAN formatting crap?
Be grateful you have it as i dont - though i can just copy and paste
Lol thm i was givigng a example as to why that figure on its own does not tell enough to know the value.
Without further details it's just a number.
So Davis cancelled todays presentation about what the UK wants from the transition......
It's almost as if 19mths later the government are still completely divided. (Tho im starting to think THMs grown ups will be ignored & the Brexiters will actually bully may into cliff-edge)
See also Nick Timothy, Telegraph & Mail blowing the dog whistle & getting all the alt-righties fired up with the Soros' evil elite conspiracy stuff
So barnier has to explain again that if we stay in CU & SM (including transition) we have to abide by the rules and if we leave we lose the benefits.
No wonder Japanese ambassador was so blunt yesterday !
£70bn tax revenue alone which is why macron would prostitute himself you get a bigger slice of the pie
(Tho im starting to think THMs grown ups will be ignored & the Brexiters will actually bully may into cliff-edge)
That's be the fault of "remoaners", no doubt.
70bn tax revenue alone which is why macron would prostitute himself you get a bigger slice of the pie
Which is exactly what the UK has been doing for years though. Lets make it 100bn in tax 😉
And I I think wewcan now add Schroedingers bankers to Schroedinger immigrants there. Never going to leave and prepared to jump at the first hint of a tax rise
i know there was another thread on this issue but using this forum is so painful these days i'd put it here
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-43001931
Well this is all going nicely isn't it? Not at all like a total shambolic bit of a mess. I'm half expecting Baldrick to pop up as chief negotiator on the British side, it's reached that level of "you couldn't make it up"
Edit: hah, the new forum changes cluster f*** to "bit of a mess". Masterly understatement!
With regards to Soros, Tomorrow’s daily heil has the first 6 pages dedicated to the outrage of foreign citizens who pay no tax in the UK having the bare-faced audacity to interfere in the Democratic process.
Every day leads us further through the looking glass eh?
#youcouldntmakeitup
What a surprise. Exactly a predicted from Barnier by anyone remotely attached to reality. He doesn't trust Davies in the slightest so the withdrawal / transition agreement will be very tightly written to be legally binding and there will be mechanisms in place to deal with breaches of it. Thats what Davies gets for saying one thing in Brussels and another in London.
Transition agreement now looking extremely unlikely. Tories still cannot agree on what they want. No solution to the NI border. No progress.
Financial services saying transition agreement has to be in place by March or they are all off to the EU, not a hope in hell.
Where are THMs fabulous ( in the real sense of the word) adults who are sorting it all out behind the scenes. Not much sign of them as the Tories have made no progress whatsoever on any of this.
Farcial
allthis was so predictable and obvious. months ago. only those blinded by ideology could not see it or admit this was what is going to happen.
I think most of the posters here will be glad that the dire new forum software keeps me away, hope you are having fun 🙂
@balls its not that “everyone” will leave but even a small minority of high earners makes a difference to tax revenues and its the higher earners who tend to leave. That’sthe income tax argument. Now this is the key weakness (ie LIE) in the protestations of bankers like Goldman saying they are leaving. Taxes are much much higher in Germany and especially France. People just aren’t going to go there in any numbers and most certianly not the high earners. Deutsche said they would send operations / trade processing but keep the traders in London even for a WTO Brexit. You do need to remember that it is not just “the bankers” who would have to kove the host country would have to spend a lot of money recruiting regulators etc, that takes time and the pool of people good enough who speak both fluent English and local language is tiny
Jamba, please check your spelling....
Jamba - if its go to Germany or lose your job then to Germany they will go. The banks have the plans in place and if no agreement by march more jobs will go.
How you can be so detached from reality I don't know
1) the banks have the plans in place to move the jobs
2) shell companies will not be allowed
3) all trading in the euro financial markets have to be under EU jurisdiction.
the only way for London to keep the financial work is to agree the softest of soft brexits.
"Deutsche said they would send operations / trade processing but keep the traders in London even for a WTO Brexit"
And the EU have said months ago that this will not do. the traders, the senior staff and the computer systems must be under Euro law.
😀
jambalaya
I think most of the posters here will be glad that the dire new forum software keeps me away, hope you are having fun 🙂
Not so so in my case. I rarely agree with you on this thread, but I’m very happy to have you on it.
You may be a Brexy, but no one could call you a snowflake (on this thread at least).
And it’s more fun when you lot are here to argue with.
4 edits to tidy that
Yup, I also enjoy you making your points here Jamba. You always have a point.
It’s certainly encouraging to hear that bankers won’t move if taxes are raised cos things are much worse overseas.
Captain - don’t confuse the behavioural response to changes in income tax with the response to regulatory and structural change. The movements that are talked about - and abused above - relate simply to required changes to the way some activities are regulated.
The further complication is that different banking activities are covered by different passports. Some of these have “equivalence”, some don’t.
So it’s much more nuanced that the monochrome doom narrative suggests
Not monochrome either way THM I’m sure. Rarely is.
No it’s the full rainbow. My brief written last year was 147 pages !!
But easy to summarise into three points and a simple conclusion - which is much less dramatic than monochrome doom and gloom
can we see it or is it secret ?Has Dave seen it
But easy to summarise into three points and a simple conclusion
Just think how much time you could have saved you and all the others if you had just done that then and mitty industries could have focused on more important things like dining with MP's and understanding the immigration regulations for a the talent who flock to it.
30 or 40 years ago nobody believed than whole industries could relocate .
it did not take very long for it to happen . leaving whole areas devastated .
if there is a will there is a way .
Now the tory donors who bankroll the party are getting all twitchy telling May to sort out the brexit nonsense and to find some policies and energy for UK stuff.
So thats May now lost the CBI, significant donors, has a tiny shrinking and aging membership and she has impaled herself on an impossible and insoluble situation due to her political weakness and need to appease two irreconcilable parts of her party.
Is this the death thows of toryism - looks rather like it from here
My brief written last year was 147 pages !!
1 page of ambiguous opinion stated as fact lacking evidence to support it, interspersed with playgroundesque name calling and 146 pages of winky smilies?
😂
I love the smell of bitterness in the morning (apologies to Bill Kilgore)
Mays a comparative lightweight! Her splits are nothing compare to the Nordic’s, E European and even French reaction to Barniers latest BS
Like the rest of us they can spot a bully a mile away and they are happy to stand up to their BS posturing
So you disagree with his sentiment of making us lie in the bed we have made for ourselves?
Do you also disagree with him becoming more than a tad peeved by our Conservative and Unionist Negotiating Team’s habit of saying one thing in Brussels and then another upon return to London?
The UK has behaved like a bunch of spoiled children. It’s hardly surprising that now patience has run out that’s exactly what we’re being treated as.
Mike Brexit may cause some people to leave but there is a very long line of hardworking, skilled and talented people from around the world to take their place. Freedom of movement is a fundamentally flawed immigration system. Sounds familiar eh, just like the euro
The Chinese have a proverb, they say a duck was designed by a committee. It’s animal that can’t fly like an Eagle or swim like a fish. The EU has morophed into a huge self serving bureaucracy fudging everything by committee
i find if most bizarre that those on the left who argue against central government control want to hand power to an even more centralised and self serving unelected bureaucracy. Thats why “true” politicalns of the left like Tony Benn, Corbyn etc are so against the EU
Where are these people now Jamby? And if they’re all so good, why aren’t they already working here?
But yet oddly the duck is very successful at being what it’s evolved to be. Meanwhile eagles, and raptors in general don’t seem to be doing so well. Perhaps there’s a flaw in your analogy?
Where are these people now Jamby? And if they’re all so good, why aren’t they already working here?
They were driven away by high taxes. Do keep up.
Brexies, being disciples of the (lone) Brexit pro- economist are looking forward to all the pesky immigrant workers leaving & all the tech & manufacturing, with the boom industries agriculture & food processing being the new national job creation wonder.
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/mps-react-after-vote-leave-11269819
That is the plan after all, the Japanese ambassador only figured it out this week, hence his grumpiness.
“They were driven away by high taxes. Do keep up.”
They can’t have been that good then. If they were they’d have worked out how to avoid, sorry, minimise, their tax burden.
Ohh, man, it's so confusing 🙁
So if an industry leaves a new wave of talented people will queue up and pay for visas to replace it? I see the magic solutions now
The EU is too democratic for some people…
Anyway, I enjoyed this…
The Chinese have a proverb, they say a duck was designed by a committee. It’s animal that can’t fly like an Eagle or swim like a fish. The EU has morophed into a huge self serving bureaucracy fudging everything by committee
On a fun note… I've never eaten Eagle, and while I like fish eggs… many people don't.
On a serious note, "designed by committee" sounds messy, but is the alternative to ignore democracy, and set out a single vision for all to follow, with no discussion and no regard for diverse national interests? Compromise is often necessary, even if messy. There are advantages to fudging rules so that commerce and life can work across national borders. Still find it a bit painful that the generation that have benefited most from the period when these fudges were in place are those that voted most heavily to end it for future generations.