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[b]teamhurtmore[/b] wrote:
TJ is doing very well without them
go on try tariffs. Does the UK government have a stated position here? Yes? No?
Does it have a stated position which isn't contradictory with other parts of its stated position?
In this case yes - hence my comments about JRM
go on try tariffs. Does the UK government have a stated position here? Yes? No?
Post a ****ing link, tell us what you know or get your leather elbow patches sewn on and go back to teaching geography or whatever it is your doing these days
Come on THM - you are so superior to us mere mortals please tell us ( and the tories) what their negotiating stance is. the EU would like to know as would the rest of us.
Superior ? Are you kidding. You kindly agreed with me. We are now in the same boat
We both agree that a clear goal of the UK government is that any deal must include services not just trade and that government ministers are agreed on this. That’s good progress on 30 mins ago
From this we now know which options that the EU are offering can be ruled out. It’s quite staightforward when you take it step by step
Current UK position, if you write it down then you have to start again once you change it
I have asked you to outline what the tories aim is for leaving the EU as you claim you know what it is. No one else knows this not May nor the EU negotiators but you claim you do.But when asked to outline it you seem unable to do so. Seems strange to me that you have all this knowledge that no one else is privy to but you wont share it
YOU have told ME part of it. You even quoted it no need to be shy no one will accuse you of being a Tory
with effort we could easily agree on more
up to you
Not at all. The answer are easy to find*. TJ has already outlined one of the trickier parts of their plan with quotes to prove it. Jumped straight in at Canada plus plus
*unless of course it’s in your interest to pretend they are not
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: 12px;">A good troll garners responses and a very good one garners them from folk who know what they are doing and still respond</span>
I would tend to classify a good troll as one who gets a decent response for minimal effort. Which isnt the case here.
I think its more dunning-kruger.
<span style="font-size: 12.8px;">Still waiting THM.</span>
<span style="font-size: 12.8px;"> </span>
<span style="font-size: 12.8px;">I have clearly asked you to set out what the tories end aim is – without posting meaningless platitudes or claiming impossible things are possible – you seem unable to do this. Why? Is it because you don’t understand? Or is it because as the tories themselves admit they have no agreed aim?</span>
Not at all. The answer are easy to find*
*Unless of course you can't provide your sources for anyone - that means your either not willing to share or it doesn't exist. Go on....
Are you a man?
@mike read TM’s 11 point letter, seems pretty clear to me. Broad free trade deal (our priorities services and manufacturing - we don’t care about agriculture for example as we can buy much cheaper elsewhere than from the EU), no budget contricutions, outside THE Single Market and THE Customs Union.
The EU want the UK to lay out it’s position in advanve so they can produce a series of “decrees” (negotiating guidelines) saying its not possible. They want the UK To kake the first public move. So where are the EU’s objectives, their desired “end state” ?
Surprise surprise they’ve said nothing at all about that. All we know is they are desperate for the money and equally keen to kick difficult conversations about happens budget wise from 2021 onwards into the very very long grass
@binners Brexit Ultras ? Tony Benn, Frank Field, Austin Mitchell, Jeremy Corbyn ?
Yep read it, and the chance of getting it...
How did it factor in the assessment that were/were not done, finished, not safe to release?
Thm is correct up to a point. The UK position is clear. We want to have our cake and eat it. Obviously that isn't possible so we have to decide which is more important. Having. Or eating. Otherwise our negotiators don't know what to sacrifice and what to hold on to. Unfortunately that decision seems to be being made by Tory self-interest rather than any sense of responsibility or accountability to the electorate. Still, democracy and all that.
Are you a man?
No he's the Hurtinator - a sophisticated shitpoasting robot sent back through time to ruin the forum for all it's users!
I thought he was here for us to laugh at his self delusion? Has to be self delusion 'cos none of us are buying his shtick
Do you have brown hair?
[b]jambalaya[/b] wrote:
@binners Brexit Ultras ? Tony Benn, Frank Field, Austin Mitchell, Jeremy Corbyn ?
You're referring to the Grauniad article he linked? Yet you don't appear to have read it. Or if you've read it you don't appear to have comprehended it. Not if you're suggesting it's referring to any of the names in your list.
But, oh look, a squirrel.
ISWYDT
Do you have glasses?
Bet he’s got a moustache.
Wearing a hat
@mike Canada got a deal which suited them (they don’t really have a big service sector in terms of “exports”), no ecj, no customs union, no budget payments. Japan looks likely to do a decent deal for them, EU sells them agricultural products, Japan sells cars
Jamba - we have a choiuce - a canada type deal which would exclude financial services or a norway type deal which would - but would involve keeping alignment with all eu rules and paying into the EU
A deal whereby we have free access for financial services but don't have to obey the rules and can make our own trade deals is simply not possible. It has been categorically ruled out. the 4 freedoms are indivisible
Also trade in large parts of financial services must be under EU law - so cannot stay in london unless we remain bound by eu law
Finally we have agreed ( in order to get a transition deal / exit agreement that there will be no regulatory divergence between NI and the EU which is incomnpatible with the sort of brexit you want
Hello brexiteers - reality calling.
I’d love to comment on some of the utter ****in bullshit posted on this thread by certain posters but I imagine it’d drop someone I know in the political shite, he was a career diplomat in the foreign service with over 20yrs of experience (high commission etc) and was the head of a “certain” terrorism crisis management team after 9/11, he’s also served time as head of UK overseas trade/investment so I figure he knows what he’s talking about. He left the civil service a few years ago yet keeps in touch with many of his old colleagues still in employment and without feeling I am giving too much away as he’s never actually confirmed/denied or told me owt in confidence (I guess I have to say that) from what I can surmise he’s said it will take a generation if not more before this country can say it has recovered from a full exit of the EU.
@aracer btw yes I did read the piece, I was making the point that those people where just as keen on a clean Brexit as any of Mogg, Fox, Johnson etc
Just comprehension you have a problem with then (hint, just in case you're actually going to engage with the discussion: Fox is mentioned in the article).
Are you a man? No he/she/they are Devo
If nothing else this debacle is proving we need EU politicians because ours are hopeless.
Who in there right mind voted for Mogg, Gove, Johnson, Dorres etc? They are clowns.
Jambas - the European Commission published their own analysis on why Canada doesn’t work for Brexshit in past few days. Fortunately they do not live in a monochrome black v white world
Very clear from their level playing field analysis that they are very worried about regulatory and tax arbitrage from - no not Ireland - but a near neighbour like the UK. This gives the UK strong bargaining power.
“Managed divergence” to become the new buzz words
(TJ thanks)
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: 12px;">we don’t care about agriculture for example as we can buy much cheaper elsewhere</span>
Balls to the farming industry and the nearly 100,000 workers in them, eh Jamba?
Somafunk, don’t worry about giving away his secret identity , he’s on here every other post.
THM - you are badly needed in cabinet to tell them what their strategy / desired endpoint to brexit is as no one else seems to know. CBI calling for clarity, the cabinet is divided with different folk offering different visions but you and you alone know clearly what the strategy is. THM to the rescue of May and co - your Tory party needs you
"Business leaders have warned Theresa May that “patience is wearing thin” with the government’s indecision on Brexit, as her inner cabinet comes under intense pressure to give a clearer signal about Britain’s future relationship with the EU.
On the day cabinet ministers prepared to gather for the first of two crucial meetings, the British Chambers of Commerce released a strongly-worded statement saying that “businesses need those elected to govern our country to make choices”.
The 11-member Brexit strategy subcommittee includes the chancellor and the home secretary, who would like to see the closest possible continuing relationship to the EU, and “divergers” including Michael Gove and Boris Johnson."
Meanwhile:
Policing is a non existant
Healthcare is in crisis
Social care is a shambles
Councils are going bust
The military isnt fit for purpose
Streets are full of homeless people
Tax havens are booming
What is today's cabinet meeting supposed to be about? What are the British Chambers of Commerce calling for the government to do this morning?
<div>teamhurtmore
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Well, at least the forum software knows what to make of him
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: 12px;">What is today’s cabinet meeting supposed to be about?</span>
Its to keep them busy whilst the grownups sort things out of course. Trust THM. We are lucky to have someone so heavily involved in the negotiations to explain things in a clear and detailed manner.
😂😂😂
TJ the CBI is Remain-Central. How can May provide clarity when EU say they won’t be ready to talk about anything of substance until March? Business is getting on with their planing Govt has been quite clear it expects not much to change in March 2019 the question is what happens in 2021
As I posted before a nice clean WTO exit remains the best option imo. Focus on global trade replacing EU as source of our imports and leave thr EU well alone whilst keeping our £35-39bn. Europe couldn’t possibly replicate financial services in less than 5 years and probably more like 10 as an absolute minimum. In that time EU bureaucrats would have been replaced with more pragmatic types and we’d get a sensible trade arrangement. The EU have far bigger problems with the euro and excessive borrowing from the periphery than anything Brexit presents
The UK position appears to involve accepting WTO most favoured nation, that respects the GFA, that allows for full alignment with the RoI.
And allows divergence, the ability to create new trade deals, whilst allowing frictionless trade.
That Relies on countries party to EU agreements simply accepting the UK continuing as prior.
Maybe i am missing something but there may be some minor issues in the UKs position,
hello - reality calling
Of course the EU can sort out financial services - it simply states the position and the banks move into the EU. Its already happening. This is what you said would happen if we taxed the bankers fairly - ytou said they would all move.
May is incapable of even saying what she wants because there is no aim / endpoint that will keep her party and cabinet united
i agree the EU has bigger issues - but not for the reasons you state. Its because brexit is only a small issue to them and one they have resigned themselves to
No Jambas - WTO does not reconcile with our goals. In conflicts with them. Hence that is not what we are pursuing.
Of course as we saw last year it’s a brilliant bargaining tactic. May hints that we “may” be considering it and - BANG - the fudges in phase 1 arrive tout suite
Now the splits are also emerging within Europe and we have an event stronger trump - regulatory competition. Of course we won’t use it in full, but it will be useful in our discussions with michel and his mates
The behind the scenes fin services stuff is very interesting
TJ thanks for posting that. Often have to sit in the middle of loads of bankers and none of them agree, so always useful to be armed with your insights to tell them why they are wrong
Any recommendations on good estate agents in Paris and Frankfurt for the hordes?
Often have to sit in the middle of loads of bankers
You must feel rather at home.
Winky smiley etc.
...well, it rhymes with bankers anyway
So THM - care to let us mere mortals know what the negotiating stance / aim / desired end point is 'cos the rest of us including the cabinet have no idea? None of the press know this, none of the EU negotiators know , the cabinet was supposed to be meeting to make a decision on this this week but have backed out according to the press
Come on dude - we are all agog to hear what the master plan is.
Or are we to assume that actually you have zero idea?
No, when I mention what TJ says they all start laughing. It’s really rather uncomfortable. I keep repeating the lines and how 000s of their colleagues have already gone and why all the activities are off overseas - nah, they are on the floor at this stage
they keep throwing out fancy words like passporting and equivalence and how funny things like MIFID and CRD are treated differently in these cases and why it matters. They laugh loudest when old Michel tries to pretend that there might be no equivalence!!!
If only I had TJ by my side here instead of on the forum, to explain why they are so wrong it might be less painful
how do you do your winkies in the new forum?
So its clear then- you really are clueless on this. All mouth and trousers what a surprise
You claim you know what the tories position is but refuse to share it with is. shows the value of your posts - zero.
"U.K. banks will have limited access to the European Union’s single market after Brexit if the government refuses to weaken its red lines, the European Commission told diplomats, according to two people familiar with private discussions in Brussels.
While the British government is aiming for a wide-ranging agreement to give financial institutions full EU access, a restricted approach similar to that which Canada enjoys is the only viable option, Commission officials said in a presentation to representatives of the 27 remaining nations on Tuesday. That position is in line with the stance expressed earlier this month by chief negotiator Michel Barnier. The Commission has completely ruled out full passporting rights, which would allow U.K. to sell services freely in the single market, the people said."
Financial-services companies in London aren’t waiting around to see how the negotiations pan out. They have led the way in contingency planning and leasing office space on the continent so they can continue to operate as they do currently -- whatever happens between now and exit day in March 2019.
The inclusion of financial services in the U.K.’s post-Brexit arrangement with the EU has become one of the most contentious areas. European officials say that Britain’s red lines -- such as ending the free movement of workers from the EU -- make it impossible for them to allow British banks the same kind of access they get now
The European Commission has dealt a blow to City firms seeking unfettered access to its trading bloc after Brexit, as time runs out to secure a deal and avoid a significant relocation of staff and businesses.
Thomson Reuters has reported that senior British financiers have been told by Brussels officials that a plan, conceived by a group of financial law specialists known as the international regulatory group has been rejected
<span style="font-size: 12.8px;"> https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/brussels-rejects-citys-plan-for-post-brexit-access-20180131</span>
Ah, the confidence of laughing bankers. Always a reliable metric of the actual health of our financial system.
Cheers TJ - your quotes once again support what I am saying
We know that the EU will try to rule out passporting - even if that harms them - so we end up debating what form of equivalence regime will be in place. The catastrophic one that you try to convince us about and the other alternatives that the banks are currently preparing for.
You are correct in agreeing with me that banks are preparing for all contingencies including which resources they will have to relocate if we end up with equivalence. It goes well beyond your quotes though because with two exceptions UK banks were prepared for this legally a long time ago.
Smart guys those bankers so bloody odd that the French banks are actually re-investing in London at the moment. Are they not as smart as you? Do they not get it?
Getting away from the purely financial....
The Home Office has postponed publishing their proposed policy on immigration and freedom of movement until 'after a transition deal was agreed'. It was meant to be published last summer
What does everyone think about that?
I can't work out whereto this suggests
A) They are going to concede on freedom of movement but can't say so as that would cause Brexiteers heads to explode
B) They are going to totally reject freedom of movement, and go for some kind of 'Guest Worker' status, but can't say so as that would cause the EU's heads to explode, and tell us to **** right off, resulting in crashing out/no deal
C) They haven't got a clue what their policy actually is, as whatever they do all hells going to break loose, so they're hiding under their desks to avoid making a decision?
I suspect it's C
So going back to Hurty's 'Prepare for every option' business principle, how does any industry presently dependent on migrant labour plan for their future not only not having a clue what future policy will be, but knowing that they'll not be knowing any time soon?
An absolute farce!
Keep kicking the can down the street… and know that will be reported as EU "delaying tactics" when people ask awkward questions.
As yet no one can tell me how much extra a kilo of chocolate will cost.
Obviously the experts are too busy sorting out the big stuff.
Note THM continues to avoid the question.
Just had a horrible thought… what if May&Davies both just intend to carry the can past the April Fool deadline next year… we're out of the EU but with a time limited period agreed where we're still operating inside the SM & CU… and then just fopp off! Leaving us with just a constructively ambiguous outline of what we are replacing membership of the EU with… and an almighty political bun fight inside, and between, political parties about what happens next… legislation allows the government to put a deal off 'till after we've left, with no vote required, in parliament or UK wide…
I'm pretty sure that's what's going to happen, but I think calling it intentional is probably giving them too much credit.
TJ you started to answer it for me. Progress - you nailed Canada plus, plus
Tariffs?
ECJ?
shall we put JRM in his box together? You know you want to
Binners - they will fudge it. Inmigration is positive for the UK economy. It will continue.
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TJ you started to answer it for me. Progress
Where as you have completely failed to back up anything with a source or any kind of actual document. Have a gold star.
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Problem with fudging it is the bit where the Brexit loonies get a vote and stick the boot into the PM. Remind me again how many votes she has to play with?
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: 12px; background-color: #eeeeee;">Inmigration is positive for the UK economy. It will continue.</span>
Considering how immigration seems to have been a factor in at least a substantial minority voting out thats a tad undemocratic dont you think?
I would have thought a fine defender of democracy such as yourself would be taking to the streets to try and ensure that those peoples democratic views should be upheld.
EU membership is good for the UK economy (and broader society). It will continue.
Nah, just get on with it. Hired and Italian and a ****stani in past two months, so covering all bases
a bit of paperwork aggro with the latter but nothing too difficult
'EU membership is good for the UK economy (and broader society). It will continue.'
yep. we were only half in, we'll be only half out. assuming article 50 doesn't get revoked of course...
It's good that us Brits are patient folk…
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-wont-agree-a-brexit-plan-this-week/amp/
Ministers on May’s Cabinet sub-committee on Brexit are set to meet on Wednesday and Thursday to start thrashing out a united position on the final “end state” they want to negotiate with the EU. While this week’s meetings have been portrayed in the press as a make or break moment, those on the inside insist this is not being viewed as “decision week” internally.
<span style="font-size: 12.8px;">Theresa May’s Brexit “war cabinet” of senior ministers is to thrash out the thorniest issues for Britain’s future relationship with the EU at a crunch meeting.</span>
<span style="font-size: 12.8px;">The prime minister and key cabinet ministers on different sides of the Brexit debate, including the chancellor, Philip Hammond, the home secretary, Amber Rudd, the environment secretary, Michael Gove, and the foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, will begin drawing up the government’s position on the “end state” for the UK’s relationship with the EU after the transition period.</span>
from the grauniad
So more proof that THMs postion is utter nonsense. there is no agreed aim / endpoint and there is huge division in cabinet.
"No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy" seems worth considering at this point.
My position??? Only yesterday you stated that DD and PH saw eye to eye on Canada plus. You even provided the quote to prove it.
You “Tory”you 😉
The idea that the cabinet could actually reach agreement in a mere 2 days, having not done so over the past year, is beyond risible.
What they might be able to do with their excellent PPE degrees in sophistry from Oxford, is find a choice of words that avoids having to actually reach meaningful agreement while each one pretending they've signed up to whatever they happen to prefer.
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: 12px; background-color: #eeeeee;">a bit of paperwork aggro with the latter but nothing too difficult</span>
Interesting but I am more curious about what you feel about the democratic implications. Since you are such a keen defender of democracy I would have thought any suggestion of fudging around a key issue in the debate would concern you.
here you go THM - a nice explanation of the major and irreconcilable differences in the 11 brexit cabinet members
<span style="font-size: 12.8px;"> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/07/whos-who-in-the-divided-cabinet-brexit-subcommittee</span>
Why you keep on saying I agree with you or that my quotes showing that you are totally wrong vindicate you I don't know. You do know we are all laughing at your detachment from reality don't you?
Hammond and Davies are totally irreconcilable in their views of what is needed. and do not agree on a Canada type deal. Hammond knows and has stated publicly that is damaging. Davies keeps going on about some mythical Canada plus plus plus which includes finacial services which is impossible as yes - you guessed it - the 4 freedoms are indivisible. Don't want free movement of people as Davies has stated is his position then you don't get free movement of capital
Odd that you quoted something very different yesterday? It’s difficuly to follow your changes of mind. You seem even more Tory by the day.
Feel free to laugh instead of learn. Shame given that you started to make some progress yesterday in answering your own question. You teach a man to fish and then he can’t be bothered to cast the line. Tant pis.
Of course what you should be saying is that they both reject existing deals for very good reasons. None of them suit our stated goals.
More "Germany minus minus minus" than "Canada plus plus plus"… not that either term means anything.
There are stated goals?
Oh yeah...
1) Have cake
2) Eat it