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or shut up
I think you mean "STFU".
Cue high brow retort about how childish it is to resort to remoaning name calling.
Sorry i forgot the 🙂
Yes I have it just gets ignored
Posted links to EU analysis on this many many pages ago and yet we still get the same guff published.
Ed just makes things up consistently. You can’t debate that as it’s mere fantasy. Eg confusing where people invest with the location of financial services providers above
You might as well have a debate about water a Mercedes is a better orange than an armadillo.
I am trying to be polite to a trolling moron DD,I'm not sure why I give him that much respect,he hasn't earned it yet 😥
And more,same old same old.
Turn you focus on those who claim that the UK has already experienced huge damage when it patently hasn’t or who post data that shows they are making things up about the impact of Brexit on NHS hiring
Or that UK financial services are about to collapse
Then you can have “respect”
If remoaners keep posting unsupportable gibberish they will get the same reaction that Brexshiteers did
Ah,back to the killfile,occasionally I hope he will produce evidence rather than bullshit,but what the hey.
Eviidence
1, we have moved to phase 2 - something that was denied could happen
2. Uk growth revised up (yes below EU but different cycles), manufacturing doing better than expected and recent trends in direct contrast to idea that U.K. had already seen huge damage
3. Real trolls have already debunked their own false arguments that Brexit has had huge impact on NHS staffing
Just because remoaners want to bully others by repeating BS doesn’t make it true. We saw that with the other side pre the vote
Given we all agree he is BS and trolling why are we feeding him?
Not sure what is worse tbh but ignoring him may lead to him behaving less like this.
Fact is London lost the job and the more I read this thread and anything Brexit connected whether it be May, DD, Hammond related the less sympathetic I feel toward GB and the more I want to distance myself from the cheating, distorting, have-cake-and-eat-it, fiscal dumping, back-door-to-Europe, shit on the poor news coming out of the UK. And I'm looking more to Macron to defend me and look after my interests than to give the UK any chance to cheat and gain unfair advantage.
The will to remain united is slipping away and the conditions for a trade war are maturing. Each new outrageous provocation from London turns the voters of Europe against GB (there's syspathy for Ireland, even the north despite the DUP). After 18 months of provocation and mauvaise foi from DD and co. it's increasingly a case of wanting Europe to protect its interests in the face of hostility and unrealistic expectations from GB. You need a Justin Trudeau when in fact you've got May, Hammond, Trump and DD. I know Trump shouldn't be on the list but people tend to put all the villains in the same basket.
I hope this makes you smile, THM, you'll no doubt accuse me of lying again, the trouble is I spend my time with Europeans of various nationalities in situations where nobody needs to be politically correct. Whether Spanish, German or French the people I spent Christmas with were anti-Brexit, but equally concerned that Europe make no concessions that GB could abuse or use to its advantage. You have to be worse off after Brexit because Europeans won't accept you being better off.
Well if you want to cut your own noses off to spite your face so be it
Ed you have long argued for people to be involved with economic sabotage in the UK in order to overturn the democratic process so your anti UK vitriole comes as no surprise
But you are correct
I want to distance myself from the cheating, distorting, have-cake-and-eat-it, fiscal dumping, back-door-to-Europe, shit on the poor news coming out of the UK
Did make me smile
Why?,because it's true?
thejesmonddingo - MemberTHM,it's interesting that for all your claims of insider knowledge,you never provide any evidence in your favour,just resort to slagging other people off. If you have any real evidence to back up your claims,please present it,or shut up.
Its because he has none. Why? Probably because he does not work in financial services at all. He has claimed to be a teacher numerous times.
Blatant fantasist and liar and a nasty bully who has been banned from here for bullying.
Junkyard - lazarusGiven we all agree he is BS and trolling why are we feeding him?
Not sure what is worse tbh but ignoring him may lead to him behaving less like this.
I suspect it would simply get shriller and worse - but he might get bored if no one answers him. Its way of trying to make himself look important and knowledgeable but unfortunately for him we can all see thru his shtick
It does really make me laugh the way everyone on here has now seen him for what he is.
And I'll bet within a few minutes THM will be making more baseless personal attacks on me - probably calling me a bully and a liar. Bet he has done this numerous times on this thread
What kind of damage? Reputational? Economic? Morale? Constitutional?Turn you focus on those who claim that the UK has already experienced huge damage when it patently hasn’t
THM in another everything is always about money shocker.
No need, the truth is out there.
Nice tone BTW and interesting change from posting inaccurate statements. ‘‘Twas ever thus.
Great irony too.
Blatant fantasist and liar and a nasty bully who has been banned from here for bullying.
Says the..... 😉
Still we will be on to the trade talks that would never happen soon, so save the vitriol for then.
Eviidence
1, we have moved to phase 2 - something that was denied could happen
Have we really?
As the "grown ups" have said many times
"Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"
Papering over the cracks is the only way to describe "phase 1"
#Turn you focus on those who claim that the UK has already experienced huge damage when it patently hasn’t
so going from the top of the G7 growth table to the bottom is not huge damage? Losing hundreds of EU nurses every month instead of gaining them? Losing thousands of EU doctors so locum shifts cannot be filled? Rising inflation outstripping growth so real wages fall, losing much of financial services to mainland Europe including the most profitable parts? Losing all influence over EU policy, losing medicines approval leading to shortages of drugs, Losing various regulatory bodies with the associated large numbers of visitors who spend good money to stay in hotels when attending stuff at those regulatory bodies. Huge increase in racist crime. Huge increase in costs - is it 3 billion extra spent so far on knew red tape etc etc.
the financial cost is already huge an this is only the beginning. The social cost is worse. and all because of an internal spilt in the tory party.
all this has already happened at huge cost to the country and population ( although the fantasist will deny despite the proof it has happened)
We have not moved to phase 2. simple lie. there have been no negotiations on the future relationship. there can't be until march at the very earliest. there is only a outline agreement on the 3 key issues and this has not been ratified yet
Phase one could have been done in 5 minutes had those in charge not been deluded
It’s all huge - even the whoppers.
Phase 1 was always BS - set conditions that merely delay the proper (public) negotiations. In the end each one was fudged which proves the delay theory (sorry Ireland)
In the spirt of the thread, progress has been huge so far.
Love the idea that we have lost “much” of our financial services when the the latest company announcements have revised down estimates from 000s to a huge few 00s roughly 5-6% of staff in London max. Huge with a capital H.
Still probably is huge when compared to the real impact on NHS staffing. Perhaps all things are relative 😉
A few hundreds? Deutschebank alone are moving 4000 staff from London to Frankfurt according the FAZ article linked to a few pages back.
Latest estimate down from that to 350
In line with trends seen for other banks.”Huge”
Bloody biased BBC leading with positive UK manufacturing output news tonight
“Huge” item up first 😉
welshfarmer - MemberA few hundreds? Deutschebank alone are moving 4000 staff from London to Frankfurt according the FAZ article linked to a few pages back.
don't bother a troll with inconvenient facts.
...and don’t check them either*. Much better if they are huge numbers ....
* although to be fair WF that number was quoted by them in the earliy days. Like all banks more realistic numbers are now available. As before in the hundreds not thousands. Still “huge” though....whole single digit %ages no less.
I can only go by what I read. The article in the FAZ (perhaps the most respected paper in Germany) was from today..
THM
So if bank passporting (correct term? ) is simply not allowed by the EU, London's future is still rosey?
From what I've heard that is looking like a likely outcome.
City firms plan to move 10,500 jobs out of the UK on “day one” of Brexit, with Dublin and Frankfurt the financial centres most likely to benefit from the UK’s departure from the EU.The job tracker compiled by the accountants EY, which counts job announcements to the end of November, found that the number of roles likely to be affected had fallen from estimates of 12,500 a year ago. But it also concluded that the jobs being affected by Brexit were not just the “back office” ones initially forecast, but “front office” staff who deal directly with clients.
The Bank of England has warned that 10,000 jobs could leave the City on “day one” after the UK leaves the EU.Sam Woods, a deputy governor of the Bank, also admitted that forecasts of 75,000 job losses over the long-term were “plausible” at an appearance before peers on the Lords EU financial affairs sub-committee on Wednesday.
Woods runs the regulatory arm of the Bank and based his estimate of 10,000 jobs on responses he received from 400 banks and financial firms required to provide him with their contingency plans for a hard Brexit.
He has been reviewing the plans since July and said some were being put in place – with banks reserving school places and hiring office space – but that this process would get under way “in earnest” in the first quarter of 2018.
The estimate of 75,000 job losses was made by consultancy Oliver Wyman, and based on the assumption that the UK would be left to rely on World Trade Organisation rules with no transition period after March 2019, when the UK leaves the EU.
Under this scenario, £10bn of tax revenue might also be lost, it said. The 75,000 estimate includes the knock-on effect of fewer City jobs to other parts of the economy.
Goldman Sachs has begun to implement contingency plans by taking the top eight floors of a 37-storey block under construction in Frankfurt, even though it is building a new European headquarters in London.The US investment bank employs 6,000 staff in London and its chief executive Lloyd Blankfein tweeted this week that the decision on how many staff to keep in London was “so much outside our control”.
The City expects 5,000 to 13,000 job losses among the 1.1 million people employed in the sector across Britain. This chimes with 10,000 losses the Bank of England said is plausible on Brexit Day in March 2019.Consultants like Oliver Wyman have forecast losses of 75,000 or far higher, though over several years.
Pretty gloomy predictions for sure eh? 🙁
Yup - but according to THM all this is bogus
It is true that some are now estimating less than they were but one thing is certain - its a good few thousand by the day we leave with many more to come - and each of those city jobs creates other jobs in service industries so they will also be lost
Again - this is exactly as I said it would go down a year ago. the right wing fantasists on here insisted it would not happen and now deny the evidence of it happening
those quotes are all from the quality press within the last month
EY was the original scare story which had been proven to be overly optimistic. 4K was the original DB estimate made at similar time. Many other banks had figured in the few thousands and are now talking few hundreds.
Current guesstimates are potentially around 5% of uk workforce may have to leAve depending on nature of deal.
Poops - loss of passporting affects certain activities. For sure all banks have drawn up plans for a move from passporting fo various forms of equivalence. All the UK banks are prepared but exact numbers of job moves will depend on nature of deal.
There will be lots of noise - not just from Stw remoaners - on this issue as it’s central to the type of deal and our future relationship with EU and one reason why we are correct to reject Norway deal and EU stupid to propose it
A compromise deal will happen. As always.
THM
Poops - loss of passporting affects certain activities. For sure all banks have drawn up plans for a move from passporting fo various forms of equivalence. All the UK banks are prepared but exact numbers will depend on nature of deal.
Surely the EU won't stand for any sort of equivalence though?
How would that work?
Correct poopscoop. any deal on financial services has been pretty much ruled out. LOndon cannot get better terms than new york or geneva have
LONDON — The EU's chief Brexit negotiator has ruled out a free trade deal with Britain which includes financial services unless Britain remains in the single market, dealing a significant blow to the government's aim of securing a bespoke Brexit trade deal.Speaking to newspapers including the Guardian, Michel Barnier said: "There is no place [for financial services]. There is not a single trade agreement that is open to financial services. It doesn’t exist."
Barnier said the result would be a consequence of "the red lines that the British have chosen themselves. In leaving the single market, they lose the financial services passport."
Oh - and contrary to THMs fantasy in a quoted post we have not moved on to the second stage of negotiations yet
Nothing can happen on the second stage of negotiations - the difficult and complex bit until march. given that the easy bit took 18 months ( for May and co to cave in on every demand) then the idea we can negotiate a comprehensive bespoke trade deal in a year is simply ridiculous
Barnier was speaking three days after EU leaders agreed the UK had made enough progress on the Brexit divorce – citizens’ rights, the Brexit financial settlement and the Irish border – [b]to allow talks on the future.[/b]He said the next key moment would be an EU summit [b]in mid-March,[/b] when EU leaders are due to sign off guidelines that will lay out red lines and hopes for the future. “I hope very much that we will have a clear position from the British government by this time.”
new york or geneva
Both the US and Switzerland have equivalence in many fields
More rubbish in the Independent being corrected
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mefty - Member
new york or geneva
Both the US and Switzerland have equivalence in many fields
Genuine question,
Do they have a good terms as London does at the moment within the EU?
Correct poopscoop. any deal on financial services has been pretty much ruled out. LOndon cannot get better terms than new york or geneva have
Not so TJ. Barnier has already said otherwise, see my earlier post on recognising uk regulations as equivalent to eu. No deal on financial services (financial and otherwise) means no deal at all means no money post March 2019. We won’t have full “passporting” and in fact nor should we, its not desirable imho. Not worth the trade offs.
EU want a deal on agriculture and UK want one on services. That will be the trade off / agreement. See TM’s trade deal priorities for the UK, services and manufacturing. EU’s priority is agriculture first and manufacturing second.
New York has no deal at all with EU on financial services. Switzerland has a bespoke one. Switzerland is a net exporter to the EU, UK a net importer. It makes sense for the EU to agree a “better deal” with UK on services than it does with Switzerland in order to get tariff free access to our market fpr other goods.
Brexit caused 37 percent fall in new London financial jobs in December - report - Reuters
https://apple.news/AQJCVJStaSli6oB9byCJxqA
New York has no deal at all with EU on financial services.
Fair point, but New York isn't the financial capital of Europe either
Poops. Very good question which unfortunately has been hijacked above by nonsense and Ill-informed comment.
It’s both very complicated and simple at the same time. Official documentation runs to many hundreds of pages and our own internal one does too. The reason it is complicated is that different activities are covered by different passports which in turn have different treatments under equivalence (which is itself complicated). To keep things very simple, the most positive outcome is a deal that includes passporting. If that doesn’t happen we will move to equivalence (several different forms and process itself is complec but let’s keep it simple). This may require the relocation of some activities to Europe and again may require banks to have different legal structures (this is where it gets complicated). So skip the detail, Uk banks have subsidiaries in EU already - all in different centres despite the BS about Paris ^ - that already gives them passporting rights. So there is a lot of noise on the issue but as normal banks have already positioned themselves for all outcomes. Ultimately it’s a red herring. The CEO of Barc said as much last year.
All that remains is the ultimate detail which will determine which activities will need to be physically located. Bank estimates have gone from the 000s to the 00s ie approx 5% of people currently located in London max.
Bottom line - yes it’s a PITA but it is manageable and indeed has already been managed. In the meantime, the EU will creates lots of noise around “equivalence” as part of their negotiating tactic. This can be ignored unless you want to get lost in the kind of ill-Informed twiddle and mis-edukated comments that are being used to stifle understanding and overturn the democratic process.
If you want to get into the detail I would refer you to the EUs own study on the impact which is very thorough but stops before what banks are currently doing. It’s a long read though.
We won’t have full “passporting” and in fact nor should we, its not desirable imho. Not worth the trade offs.
I disagree with J’s conclusion here. We “may” continue with full passporting and this would clearly be the preferred option and the most desirable for both sides. Narrow self interest may get in the way in the meantime.
We shall see. As with the thread the surrounding noise while be entertaining if not informative .
If that doesn’t happen we will move to equivalence (several different forms and process itself is complec but let’s keep it simple).
Can I ask how you know this?
I’m 100% involved. I have to know.
Anyone that's read an FT summary on the matter should/would know this Twodogs.
Interesting
Doesn't really explain how you know we WILL move to equivalence?
Doesn't really explain how you know we WILL move to equivalence?
It will be some grown ups behind the scenes stuff that you wouldn't understand.
2D that’s a good question
The details are very complex so I simplify deliberately. (and didn’t correct Jambas above. )
Your point is very valid for the simple reason that equivalence is determined by the EU not by us. Hence it is up to their diacretion and why Barnier is starting all the noise in prep for the detailed negotiation
So the “will” comes from understanding the perspectives of both sides and what is in their interests. I am not alone here are the EU says exactly the same thing. Yes, I am more definitive because that is my judgement from being in the eye of the storm as it were. Good question though !!!
You really don't need to simplify it for me, given my job
"Will" is not correct..it's an aspiration.
Not so TJ. Barnier has already said otherwise, see my earlier post on recognising uk regulations as equivalent to eu. No deal on financial services (financial and otherwise) means no deal at all means no money post March 2019. We won’t have full “passporting” and in fact nor should we, its not desirable imho. Not worth the trade offs.
#Simply untrue
Which bit isn't true, TJ?
It’s also the desired outcome of the EU and a position that banks are already prepared for.
So aspiration or not it doesn’t matter. It’s noise
Two dogs
Barnier has not said otherwise
NO deal on financial services does not mean no deal at all
Both those assertions from Jamba are incorrect.
also no deal does not involve no money after 2019. We have already agreed to pay infor longer thanthat
My point is that you criticize others for conflating facts and speculation, yet you're doing exactly that. You cannot know that there will be equivalence....trust me, I know.
Ok, thanks TJ
Trust me - it will happen, indeed may be better
The Eu thinks the same too. If you think we will have not passporting and no equivalence then it really is tin hat tin
Plus as a precursor Barnier lready confirmef equivalence in some areas - no, really ??? - so the idea that there will no equivalent is fanciful in the extreme
Any financial institution that assumes there will be passport and doesn't also prepare for other, worse scenarios, is foolish, putting it mildly.
And with that, I'm off..thanks THM, you've confirmed what I thought (and I don't mean about passporting) - be careful what you say as there are people out there who almost certainly know more than you
I know **** all and I reckon we are at the same level.
Edit 🙂
This is the point where someone will feel compelled to contradict me whicheck will mean I know more than them.
2d
I have said that and haven’t prepared for that either. We are ready for worst case scenario
I had assumed that your job also required to read what is posted accurately - with that I’m off too!
Happy and prepared
How much is my chocolate going to cost?
Regardless of crop output projections.
I too want to be prepared.
How much is my chocolate going to cost?
No-one knows. This pile of uncertainty and problems caused by people who had no idea of the implications of their vote. Isn't democracy great?
Can anyone post a link to the assessment reports published by Mayor of Londons Office/Camecon?
They’re being discussed in the news but I can’t find the reports.
This one?
Thanks for that.
Can someone just remind me of the upside of Brexit? Hell, can anyone even tell me the base case for it?
I'm still as angry about it today as I was on the morning of the result.
Everyone can read the report and decide how convincing the predcitions are. When they talk in generalities I agree with most of their comment but the precision of their numbers misleads as to their accuracy.
Economic forecasts are like the British weather forecast, just replace a timescale of days with years. Tomorrow's forecast won't be far wrong but in ten days it might be snowing (in June) when the forecast said sunshine. There are a huge number of variables, too many to make more than guestimates long term. When you see 166.9 for 2030 read 170 +or- 50.
Farage just said he would back a second 'in/out' referendum.
Blimey.
video here: [url= https://twitter.com/ReasonCoffeeShp/status/951389479650185216 ]https://twitter.com/ReasonCoffeeShp/status/951389479650185216[/url]
really!?
i'll take your word for it. i don't want to look at that shit's face any more than i have to.
He clearly thinks he could win.
Bit like May with a snap general election it may not be as clear cut as he thinks...
He think he is right to think that Leave would more than likely win a second referendum, and right to recognise that it will be necessary to hold it. Obviously, I'll be voting to remain. I think I'm still allowed to do that, without being called undemocratic.
I was just reading Farage's Telegraph piece…
I also asked whether he thinks uncontrolled mass immigration from the EU had been the single biggest issue in the mind of Brexit voters. His look of total incomprehension confirmed his reluctantance to accept the unvarnished truth about the consequences of letting 10 poor, former communist countries join the EU.
It's not about immigration… it's all about immigration…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/08/michel-barnier-happy-play-time-see-britain-sweat/
Meanwhile German GDP growth sets records according to Tagesschau 24.
[s]He[/s] [b]I[/b] think he is right to think…
Messy idiot.… although it almost made as much sense with the typo.
hopefully his hubris will be his downfall.
Farage said it to head off questions about him saying a 48/52 split against leaving would require another vote. It was mentioned earlier in the show.
It was only on as it follows Milkshake and I hadn’t turned the telly off.