[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

Pretty much Cougar.

The EU might throw May a few bones so she can claim a deal but I doubt it.

Its all going exactly as I said it would. Remember " row of the summer"? "Easiest trade deal ever"? " they need us more than we need them"

If anyone can be bothered going back thru the thread everything I have predicted will happen has happened. and we ain't even left yet - the worst damage is yet to come

I've suspected for a long time that there will be no practical change in anything other than name. We'll just have to pay out a shed load of money, effectively setthe economy back a decade or two and we won't have a seat/influence on the top table anymore.

No. Keep trying

Corbyn is a non-playing captain of leave 😉 an irrelevance so far, but could well be called on to deliver his dream 😉

That the same Corbyn who looks more committed to remain every week?

So TJ when is the -4% recession going to happen? One of your early predictions

and there was me thinking he was a conviction politician

What do you reckon the will say when they quash his nationalisation plans?

Before the collapse of the euronzone?
Was that a starter for 10 or a bonus question.

[img] ?quality=90&resize=620,413[/img]

What do you reckon the will say when they quash his nationalisation plans?

The same things they didnt when Osborne did it?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/aug/28/network-rail-piublic-sector-dont-call-it-nationalisation

Im surprised at you THM, propagating brexie lies
https://theconversation.com/amp/fact-check-do-new-eu-rules-make-it-impossible-to-renationalise-railways-61180

Cougar You will be relieved to know that a more sensible and accurate presentation of events is widely available

Look behind the two issues and the proposed solutions and you see the very clear evidence of what happens when grown up negotiators get together. Both the misnamed divorce bill and the NI solution were perfect examples of what we will end up with. Compromises that are structured to allow both sides to claim small wins while keeping some wiggle room. Both sides supported these proposals but unfortunately the subtle nuances were a step too far for both the DUP and remoaners

But don’t worry there is more to come and soon. Then we will Be discussion trade and another set of compromises to ensure access to each other’s markets

I was working outdoors all day today, did anything change? Last I heard the DUP were insisting that they would defend the people of Northern Ireland's right to be part of as crap a deal as the rest of the UK even when a better deal was offered to them and a majority of people in the province voted to remain in the EU.

What news?

Oh and this one too
THM

http://renewal.org.uk/blog/eu-law-is-no-barrier-to-labours-economic-programme

But don’t worry there is more to come and soon. Then we will Be discussion trade and another set of compromises to ensure access to each other’s markets

Anyone watching BBC4? Programme about invasions of the British Isles. Except they keep going on about it being immigration. Almost as if they have a point to make!

THM, are you saying that was the plan all along , or did they think about it at 4pm yesterday ? 🙄

It's great molgrips, very nice to her someone actually explain how we are a product of continuous waves of migration.

Truly apt for the flawed isolationist fantasy of Brexit

Anyway excellent thread showing how Europeans view brexishambles

https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/937993277223075840

Kimbers - nice article and link thanks. But flawed. We have case evidence of a European socialist governments plans for nationalisation as an alternative to austerity being rejected by the European Commission in the past few years.

Chris - like kimbers you might be overlooking who was involved with and who agreed to yesterday’s proposal. But that aside of course this is being made up as we go along. There is no precedent and the outcomes are dependent on on-going negotiations

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Brexit is more about a destructive reshaping of our economy than it is about reclaiming sovereignty, whatever that means.

I would not be surprised to see May fall from power imminently, especially if the DUP refuse to play nice.

I rarely bother engaging with thm, as he comes across as such an unpleasant individual , but this

and there was me thinking he was a conviction politician

What do you reckon the will say when they quash his nationalisation plans?

Is just utter garbage...there's nothing to stop nationalisation in the EU.

Didnt see the programme didn't need to, I know we are one of the most invaded countries in the world.
In fact I would challenge anyone to name half a dozen more mongrel countries than the UK?

The usuals on here will carry with the wordy ****athon but for the nation in general this is increasingly looking like a dead duck.

I would suggest the only question now is whether or not we should charge the spannners who got is in this situation with treason.

So it seems that Davis wasn't involved in the draft, May had shut him out...

Well that's what Davis' mates are briefing.

Davis, desperate to wash hands of brexishambles

Thsnkd fir the complement. Given that there is real evidence that contradicts your point, I will refrain from psssing the complement back.

Or linking to said evidence?

So it seems that Davis wasn't involved in the draft, May had shut him out...

You are not suggesting that there are some intelligent people working in the background are you kimbers ? Didn’t tell you know who, he will get terribly upset that another falsehood is debunked.

What do you reckon the will say when they quash his nationalisation plans?

Cost quashes that.

Both sides supported these proposals but unfortunately the subtle nuances were a step too far for both the DUP and remoaners

Indeed. Like that Ian Duncan Smith. Another remoaner getting all frothy. Doesn’t he understand the nuances?

Actually I suspect what ever else is true about them the DUP are very good at nuances.

cmon it’s quite recent....

You guys seem obsessed with the nutters. Why not focus on the smart guys who are actually negotiating, especially behind the scenes?

THM is it your patronage or patronisation that in receiving right now, not sure what the correct word is

5 seconds in Google proves thm wrong..."does eu prevent nationalisation"...basically there are ways to do it within the EU as shown by the number of states that have nationlised railways.

Cougar You will be relieved to know that a more sensible and accurate presentation of events is widely available

Oh, good. What other possible outcome have I missed? (Genuine question, what's option 4?)

So, if Northern Ireland will get exactly the same rules as the rest of the UK, can we have same sex marriage & abortion please?

The endless 'points scoring' on here has replaced any possibility of grown-up discussion.
There may be some intelligent focussed people working away behind the scenes and making progress; on the other hand that may be an illusion.
I'm off to stick pins into the Iain Drunken Smith voodoo doll.

The one that is currently being negotiated

As said many hundreds of pages ago - one that lies between two of the existing off the shelf options.

A friend just posted this on Facebook.

[i]'MPs are debating universal credit at the moment. As the Press Association reports, the Conservative MP Heidi Allen was left in tears after hearing the “destitution” faced by people as a result of government welfare reforms. Allen struggled to speak following a speech by the Labour MP Frank Field, in which he described persuading a man not to commit suicide and how an organisation separately helped a child “crying through hunger”. Field, chairman of the Commons work and pensions committee, said the father of the child also said he had had a “lucky week” after neighbours invited him to a funeral “so they could finish off the food” once the other guests had been fed.

Rising to speak after Field, Allen said:

I don’t know where to start after that. I’m humbled by the words from my honourable, good friend from Birkenhead. No government is perfect, no benefits system is perfect, no debate, no motion is perfect, but by God we work together and make this better.

Intervening to give Allen a chance to compose herself, Field said:
I’m just amazed for the first time I’ve been able to report those events publicly without weeping. I’m so affected by them, I’m affected as she is. That’s the debate we’re really having - how do we represent here the desperateness of many of our constituents when many of us feel we can’t offer them hope.'[/i]

We send £350m to [the EU | pay for Brexit]* - why not feed our ****ing children instead?

* delete where applicable

dont get me wrong THM, i am delighted the UK is a lot closer to staying in the EU as it was a few months ago .

Cougar - Moderator

Cougar You will be relieved to know that a more sensible and accurate presentation of events is widely available

Oh, good. What other possible outcome have I missed? (Genuine question, what's option 4?)

I'll bet you cougar you don't get one. You might get a link to pie in the sky tory wishlists but thats about it.

Well that’s a relief for you

So the options are

1 stay in the EU
2 Hard Brexit leaving with no deal and moving to WTO status
3 Soft Brexit (this could be a Swiss model, a Norwegian model, or some other undefined bespoke deal somewhere in between)

In other words, exactly what has been said from day 1

Should have put 3 options on the ballot paper

Cougs. Not a bad reference piece to help you

I don't believe we qualify for WTO status. We need to accept... I can't remember exactly now, sorry, I'm very tired. Single Market / Customs Union I think. And to get that we need to accept the other three.

It absolutely isn’t Chris. We are closer to a WTO exit than it was. The die is cast, we won’t be remaining in the EU under any circumstances.

As far as May is concerned agreeing a 2 year transition / implementation period is the most pragmatic way to solve the money argument. You can see ner logic in delaying A50 then adding 2 years to get to the end of the current “framework” period = job done.

As for “damage to the UK” have a listen to this, 0.25% pa to GDP under the WTO deal option even assuming we make no new deal / benefit from a more global focus. Had that been the projection HMT / Osbourne shared the resukt would have been an even bigger win for Leave.

Cougs. Not a bad reference piece to help you

I don't want an 87 page document which is nearly a year old. I'd like you to answer the question in your own words, summarise what you're trying to say about where we are right now and what our options are. A couple of sentences will suffice. What's option 4, what have I missed? Not being an arse, serious question.

I'll bet you cougar you don't get one. You might get a link to pie in the sky tory wishlists but thats about it.

How very prescient.

Should have put 3 options on the ballot paper

You already have it. If you can’t be bothered to read the context that’s you loss. It would have been prescient of me to realise you were simply being what you deny, not looking to genuinely understand.

I will leave you in the incapable hands of the IB. Enjoy the wallow.

As for “damage to the UK” have a listen to this, 0.25% pa to GDP under the WTO deal option even assuming we make no new deal / benefit from a more global focus. Had that been the projection HMT / Osbourne shared the resukt would have been an even bigger win for Leave.

Wishful thinking - nothing more, nothing less. No subsrancet in that film, just one mans optimism. Hardly proof of anything.......

I wish, for a change, a Brexiteer could come up with some actual facts. But, sigh, here we are 18 months & still FA all progress.

If I could leave this rather unhappy & divided little island I would.

I don't believe we qualify for WTO status.

?????

@mrlebowski he was quoting The World Bank

Those who voted leave are optimistic about the future outside the EU. Thats why we voted out. It helps to explain the resiliance of the UK economy, 52% of us are delighted and a decent chunk of the 48% have accept d the result and are getting on with making the best of it.

[url= https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/01/economist-explains-4 ]WTO & Brexit - The Econimist[/url]

"The WTO will even shape the Brexit negotiations themselves. The government is desperate to ensure that Britain’s big exporters do not suffer from Brexit. It has explicitly assured Nissan, a carmaker, that it will not suffer. But WTO rules can make such sectoral deals hard. If Britain were to agree bilaterally with the EU not to apply tariffs on cars, the WTO’s “most-favoured nation” principle might force it to offer tariff-free access to other countries as well. Channelling government money to boost exports is also something of which the WTO would disapprove. The WTO option may seem like an easy way out for post-Brexit Britain, but that road is in reality covered with bumps. "

WTO easy? Sounds far, far, har harder.....than "Oh, we'll just switch over....."

Lies, obfuscation & double talk all over again....

Sigh..

Edit: Source Jamba - helps to be able to check these things you know..

You already have it. If you can’t be bothered to read the context that’s you loss.

Well, no, I don't, so I've clearly missed something somewhere. Pretend I'm stupid. What's option 4, what have I missed? spell it out for me.

52% of us are delighted and a decent chunk of the 48% have accept d the result

Hmmm. The facts are against you there Jamba. Sorry and all.

Unless you mean 52% of Brexies are delighted and 48% of Brexies are putting up with it. Not sure about those figures but they’re probably about right.

Few of the most excitable Brexiit fans seem to understand what the WTO does, or how it operates, or the power plays already under way to squeeze us by the big nonEU countries and blocks. Only the EU is backing our proposals as regards a separate status with WTO.

It helps to explain the resiliance of the UK economy, 52% of us are delighted and a decent chunk of the 48% have accept d the result and are getting on with making the best of it.

Again the options are
Stay the same (probably without a rebate)
Something between above and below - The Bespoke Deal Option
Full Hard Brexit to isolationism

Anyone who claims to know more than that is lying to themselves first and foremost.

Currency devaluation already exceeds impact of WTO tariffs on car exports. Interestingly Dyson debunked the FT piece about multiple charging as components are imported and finished car exported. He said thats not how it worked and he should know as a manufacturer.

We export £10bn in cars and import £40bn from the EU. Its a no brainer for them to agree and if they don’t they are the losers.

jambalaya - Member

52% of us are delighted

Best Jambalaya statement since that time he thought northern ireland was an island.

Jamba doesn't understand what the WTO does, or how it operates

Is this of help? From the leaveHQ.com "Leave Alliance" no less (whoever they are).

http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128

Jamba - their economy is rather more than 4 times the size of ours so it’s a bigger hit to us.
But you know this.

“The German Car Industry Will Save Us.”

😆

You guys seem obsessed with the nutters. Why not focus on the smart guys who are actually negotiating, especially behind the scenes?

You can hardly blame us. How exactly are we supposed to focus on the behind the scenes people that we don't know anything about?

As for “damage to the UK” have a listen to this, 0.25% pa to GDP under the WTO deal option..,

If the future is so rosey why were the government so cagey about releasing those impact reports even after they were repeatedly ordered to do so? And even then redacting them heavily. If they were full of good news then why were they so concerned about fellow MPs seeing them?

If the future is so rosey why were the government so cagey about releasing those impact reports even after they were repeatedly ordered to do so? And even then redacting them heavily. If they were full of good news then why were they so concerned about fellow MPs seeing them?

+1.

Can a Brexiteer explain this please???

I shan't hold my breath..

You can hardly blame us. How exactly are we supposed to focus on the behind the scenes people that we don't know anything about?

THM reguarly peaks behind the curtain, so he knows whats really going on

honestly theyre like really clever grown up geniuses

[img] [/img]

Kelvin I understand very well how WTO works. It’s setup to make things easy and it works very well as can be seen by the volume / proportion of trade carried out on that basis. What is more we can unilaterally lower tariffs if we wish, there are many which aren’t worth the bother and cost of collecting. Which brings me neatly to the following

Did you know that despite Switzerland having a free trade agreement with the EU companies chose to use WTO for 50% of qualifying trade as paying the low tariff is cheaper than complying with EU documentation requirements. The average EU WTO Common External Tariff is 1.5%

THM reguarly peaks behind the curtain, so he knows whats really going on

Those who voted leave are optimistic about the future outside the EU.

One EU ambassador told the Guardian the failure to reach a deal on Northern Ireland was a microcosm of a wider problem. “At root the problem is that [May] seems incapable of making a decision and is afraid of her own shadow,” the source said.

“We cannot go on like this, with no idea what the UK wants. She just has to have the conversation with her own cabinet, and if that upsets someone, or someone resigns, so be it. She has to say what kind of trading relationship she is seeking. We cannot do it for her, and she cannot defer forever.”

Kelvin I understand very well how WTO works.

Oh, cool. I don't really beyond what I've picked up from the Internet, if I'm honest. Could you explain it to me?

She has to say what kind of trading relationship she is seeking.

Eureka! An EU official finally recognising what comes first or at least should do. Little steps

The average EU WTO Common External Tariff is 1.5%

Tell that to a farmer.

Hang on… you've argued before that the EU is overly protectionist as regards its TRQs… now you're arguing third counties face really low tariffs when selling into the EU? Cake and eat it?

What is more we can unilaterally lower tariffs if we wish, there are many which aren’t worth the bother and cost of collecting. Which brings me neatly to the following

The average

Eureka! [s]An EU official[/s] finally recognising what comes first [s]or at least should do. Little steps[/s]

Eureka! An EU official finally recognising what comes first or at least should do. Little steps

Did you miss my question, THM? Read up.

you see with a little handy misquoting this now becomes a joke about chickens and eggs. Why do you insist in picking out the only line that agrees with you and missing the bit that gives you the context to what was said?

Are you new here?

52% of us are delighted and a decent chunk of the 48% have accept d the result and are getting on with making the best of it.

lol TJ - sometimes it's worth pointing it out, personally I'd be embarrassed if it was me but he could be having a little celebration at his trolling ability (which is also fairly bad)

What is it we're making the best of? Sorry to bring up Welsh steel fears/NHS nurse shortages/Grimsby fishing exemption plea, etc.

Welsh steel... Grimsby fishing

Both of which positively flourished during our time in the EEC/EC/EU

indeed

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tata-steel-uk-government-accused-of-failing-to-protect-british-workers-by-blocking-eu-plans-to-allow-a6962446.html

and see also

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/10/dont-blame-the-eu-for-the-decline-in-some-british-fishing-ports/

apparently UK is 2nd largest fleet in EU, but 5th biggest employer, thanks to modern ships, profits in the UK fishing industry growing year on year and are the highest across the EU, as are profit margins. The level of investment in the industry, is also growing and is the highest across the EU.

its almost as if the decline of the british fishing industry has more to do with changes in technology than in the EU

just wait till the sea is full of robot trawlers, isnt that the future Hammond has for us all?

wonder if theyll still get this 25m investment in the port from the EU?

http://humberbusiness.com/news/european-funding-boost-for-the-seafood/story-525-detail/story

Didn't that awful first Star Wars movie start with a trade war, hmmmm?

52% of us are delighted and a decent chunk of the 48% have accept d the result and are getting on with making the best of it.

It does seem odd that if Brexit is going to be so awesome, then the impact assessments would have been readily available. Apparently what is available is heavily redacted and subject to heavy security procedures in order for MPs to view.

Also, +1 for fixing the disaster that is universal credit. But that’s for another thread.

Commitee meeting:

[i]Benn: So the govt has not undertaken any impact assessments on individual sectors of leaving the EU?

Davis: No.[/i]

Jesus H Christ what have they been doing?

[edit] some more detail:

[i]Benn: Has the Government done impact assessments on leaving the EU for individual sectors?
Davis: not in sectors..theres no systematic impact assessments Benn: Automotive?
Davis: No
Benn: Aerospace?
Davis: No. No on all of them[/i]