[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

dannyh

Whatever happens, Brexit is the end of Tory government for a long, long time. It is a problem of their own making and seeing them wriggle, squirm and in-fight is thoroughly entertaining.

Absolutely!

The only good thing to come out of this utter s*** fest!

Leo Varadkar, the Irish taoiseach, has said he is “disappointed and surprised” that the agreement reached between Ireland and Britain this morning was no longer acceptable to Theresa May.

So May conceded and then couldn't get the DUP to agree. How weak is she? making agreements then not being able to honour them..
Utter idiot

So apparently Arlene Foster wants NI to be treated the same as the rest of the UK?
So I take it she'll be sending that £1 billion back then?
There's 3 weeks worth of extra money for the NHS 😉

teamhurtmore - Member

But good to see that you have now recognised that the Irish border comes after the agreement over what form of access to the SM and CU is negotiated. So quite a bit of progress today all-in-all

Didn't follow that, could you explain? Surely finalising and agreeing the NI border matter has to predate the SM/CU part?

So as far as I can tell today...

May rolled over for the EU.
Arlene rang.
May rolled over for Arlene.
Dublin were going to make a statement on the state of affairs, but, given they couldn’t work out what the state of affairs was, decided not to.
Scotland, Wales and London said if there are special deals going count us in. Rumours that York said the same are unproven.
Everyone went home saying it had all been jolly fun and they’d try again later in the week.
Except Arlene.

Did I miss anything?

Kind of reminded me of those few days in the TdF mountains where Froome blew up into the airport, we all thought it might get interesting, but as they left the mountains his lead was exactly what it was as they went in.

Everything happened and nothing happened.

[img] [/img]

What is the official scale for balls-ups by the way.

Is it shambles then fiasco then farce?

Or a different permutation?

Brexit (or at least what the loons perceive as Brexit) cannot and will not happen.

The Tories are heading for the wilderness - and long may they stay there.

If their vote goes below a certain level, there may even be a (please, please let it happen) split in the party that leads to a proper centrist opposition but ensures that the loons are never let near to any position of influence again.

As far as I like to think, that's what a decade or more of economic self-harm might just be worth paying for.

codybrennan - Member

teamhurtmore - Member

But good to see that you have now recognised that the Irish border comes after the agreement over what form of access to the SM and CU is negotiated. So quite a bit of progress today all-in-all

Didn't follow that, could you explain? Surely finalising and agreeing the NI border matter has to predate the SM/CU part?

Yes it does. ( unless you live in tory la la land). The shape of any final trade deal will mean details need to be adjusted but the Irish need to hear how a open border can be achieved on the island of Ireland in accordence with the GFA and the EU need to hear how this border will be secure as do the rabid leavers

Incidentally, we were just debating whether you'd whine for getting a warning or not. I won.

On this particular point (because it is so funny), we are back where we were about a year ago.

Kids poking dogs with sticks then going crying to mummy when the dog bites.

The difference being that most kids learn in the end.

😐

The influential Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg said that Tory MPs would not allow the regulation even of Northern Ireland to be aligned with the EU.

“We cannot align the regulation of one part of the United Kingdom with the European Union. If we align the whole of the United Kingdom then we haven’t left the European Union so there is a logical impossibility of doing what the Irish government proposes,” he told reporters outside the meeting of backbench Conservative MPs.

this is the loons May has to deal with. These rabid loons will block anything that hints at concessions - and the UK government is committed to no borders on the island =of Ireland. trouble is the Leavers have been so busy promising everything to everyone that they don't have a braincell to spare to think about difficult issues like this

May is valiantly performing a valuable international service though

The most corrupt, incompetent banana republics on the planet are presently thanking her for making them look like a model of good governance

Is it shambles then fiasco then farce?

A complete and utter ####ing shambles is the highest level as far as I know 😆

A complete and utter ####ing shambles is the highest level as far as I know

Well if the current scale runs from 1 to 10, brexit is a solid 18.
So we're going to have to find a further 7 descriptive words to attribute to levels eleven to seventeen.

Omnishambles was somewhere on the scale but we went past it a long time ago

Just spent a happy 5 minutes getting Google Translate to tell me the French, Spanish, Swedish etc for "Swivel eyed loonie"

May just needs to placate the DUP, several key ministers, and many of her backbenchers - over the phone - mid negotiation with a team representing the interests of the biggest FTA in the world. Easy! I genuinely feel sorry for her.

I think that we’re all agreed that it’s turning into a disaster.

May and the Conservatives made a confidence and supply deal with the DUP, stopping short of a coalition that would be a red line for Sinn Fein. A coalition with the SNP or Lib Dems was out of the question, so May has been the architect of this particular cluster-blank and I hope that she’s got a contingency plan to placate the DUP.

I think that we’re all agreed that it’s turning into a disaster.

and I hope that she’s got a contingency plan to placate the DUP.

What will / can May do now? No solution on NI and still bits on the other two issues. She cannot carry parliament on any deal that is acceptable to the EU. So no trade talks, no deal. the CBI will be up in arms at no deal, I really don't see what her next move is.

The problem with avoiding "showing your hand", is that when you make your move, it can come as a surprise to the very people that you need to agree to the plan that you refused to let them see in advance… you own supposed political allies.

At some point, "the people" will want to be consulted as well… you can't play secret games forever… at some point decisions need to made, and made public. Only then can you begin to measure the support for a Brexit more specific than "Brexit means Brexit".

Didn't follow that, could you explain? Surely finalising and agreeing the NI border matter has to predate the SM/CU part?

Only if you are an EU member who wants to delay proper negotiations Cody or a remoaner who likes to make things up.

There are various forms that our future access to the single market and vv may take. Each of them have implications for the nature our our borders. So it’s all a bit silly to insist on an end solution when the question that needs to be solved has not been defined.

On the contrary PJM. We are seeing progress towards a deal - albeit slow and not straightforward - that means the disaster scenarios are becoming much less likely. Much to the chagrin of the remoaners. Hence the need for wild exaggeration

Anyone just hear Varadkar?

There’s a deal.
Ok let’s announce that.
Hello, is that Leo?
Yep, what’s up Terry?
Ah, about that deal...that bloody difficult woman in Belfast!

The alternative point of view appears to be that Varadkar or EU tried to leak a draft copy of the agreement in order to bounce May into agreeing to their wording, but she held firm.

I fail to see any benefit for May in releasing the Draft, particularly given th3 later revision seems to have been towards UK position rather than away from

Negotiations are ongoing, she can either ask the DUP just how much they want the money promised in June, or she can try to tacitly gain cross party support to overrule in the Commons. My guess is that there will be an attempt made to sweeten the DUP somehow.

Or she could jack it all in, buy a shed and write her memoirs titled “Running through fields of wheat without EU subsidy” and mark time to her retirement with a job in the charity sector.

The alternative point of view appears to be that Varadkar or EU tried to leak a draft copy of the wording in order to bounce May into their wording, but she held firm.

Yeah right. May and Varadker agreed a form of words and May tried to bounce the DUP

So May, ostensibly the PM of one of the world's leading nations with 660 Parliamentarians, agrees a major international agreement with the world's largest free trade block, and de facto goes public.

The regional special interest party with only 10 MPs yanks her chain and blocks the whole thing.

How can her position possibly be tenable?

I think if I were May I’d be doing a John Major right now. It could be her honourable way out. Call their bluff with the threat of Jezza in the background. If they vote against her, they can’t blame her.

So it’s all a bit silly to insist on an end solution when the question that needs to be solved has not been defined.

ninfan - Member
The alternative point of view appears to be that Varadkar or EU tried to leak a draft copy of the agreement in order to bounce May into agreeing to their wording, but she held firm.

Was she staunch do you think?

Nah, face it- she got a call from Foster who pulled her reins in. Plain as day. And so says Kuenssberg:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/937718845573394432

I'd have thought the alternative point of view could just as easily be equally be that swivel eyed loons in Mays teams leaked to spike the deal. Also that doesn't involve the ridiculous concept of May holding firm.

teamhurtmore - Member
Didn't follow that, could you explain? Surely finalising and agreeing the NI border matter has to predate the SM/CU part?
Only if you are an EU member who wants to delay proper negotiations

Or if you believe politics, continued peace etc trumps economics;

From RTE just now
Varadkar said he hopes an agreement can be concluded in coming days.

He said Ireland cannot progress to Phase Two of Brexit negotiations unless there are guarantees that a border will not re-emerge "under any circumstances."

So it’s all a bit silly to insist on an end solution when the question that needs to be solved has not been defined.

This more THM nonsense?

Its obvious to anyone with a few working brain cells why this has to be done first. If the UK cannot form some sort of border that works then everything else is off.

Well with a bit of luck the NI situation will scupper Brexit completely.

Interesting reading some of the top comments on the BBC piece:

[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42217735 ]UK and EU fail to strike Brexit talks deal (BBC)[/url]

Lots of wild hyperbole from Leavers about the EU "blackmailing" us or being "dictators" - very little recognition that we are conducting a negotiation where compromises need to be made and the EU are in a pretty strong negotiating position.

Examples:

And if we had voted Remain ?.. The UK forced to give up the pound and join the Euro ? And finally, become part of a single state, run by Germany ?

Britain is being blackmailed by the despotic, dictatorial EU..

The EU is bankrupt, fiscally and morally!

Looks like we've paid the ransom...
One day we'll look back on this part of our history as the moment we sold our soul to appease the Liberal Left.

It's not just Remoaners that whine then 🙄

"Hence the need for wild exaggeration" 😆

You can agree a minimum border scenerio, but work towards a deal that might provide something better.

Indeed you are articulating the positions outlined in both sides’ briefing documents

They only need to get on with it then THM.

And take the DUP with them.

I probably shouldn’t be finding this funny I know, but watching the Brexies fall out and swivel in the wind is fundamentally hilarious.

TJ fortunately some people have more than just a few brain cells. Helps them understand why the opposite is true.

Remember you were arguing that everyone involved were intellectually challenged and that no progress was possible. Both proved totally wrong.

The bill solution was a master stroke of how sensible negotiators and grown ups work.

Hey Tories, remember the people you had to get into bed with after you lost the election? You should have given them more money . . . .

🙂

What a comical situation the Cons find themselves in. Everyone forgets what the DUP are like. I grew up in a West of Scotland town where their malign influence (and that of the RA) was still apparent- they'll never move.

Their red line is as follows: No Surrender, No Retreat. There's no way they'll take their base along with anything that looks or sounds like a united Ireland. They'll happily take the money, and thats about it.

This government is effectively over if this DUP S&C thing can't be revived, and if I know my Loyalists, they'll never move.

The bill solution was a master stroke of how sensible negotiators and grown ups work.

You mean paying what they asked for after months of saying we wouldn’t? We sure bamboozled them there...

Do the DUP keep the cash if they walk?

With an intractable DUP, May has to put it before Parliament and try to sell a deal to the moderates in her own party and make concessions to the opposition, or are we already past that point?

I refer to Rober Peston’s post earlier:

[i]But here is what I assume will be scaring the Prime Minister witless (it scares me, just as a bystander). She is signing up for close regulatory alignment between the UK and EU without ever having secured agreement for that from the Cabinet.[/i]

So what now? Has she just ended her own premiership?

It’s pretty clear that May has no idea what she’s dealing with in the DUP. She clearly judges them by Tory standards, ie: if the bung is big enough, there’s nothing we won’t do.

Whereas what she was asking them to do, in endorsing a ‘solution’ that would bring a United ireland a step closer, is like asking a vegan animal rights activist if they wouldn’t mind popping down to the abbatoir with a bolt gun as you fancy a big juicy steak.

May has shamelessly pandered to the idealogical nutters on her own backbenches, yet these lot are ten times worse

The fact that she couldn’t see this is yet another example, if any were needed, of how totally out of her depth she is.

Anyone who’s spent any time in NI knows full well that there’s no way on earth they’d evergo along with this! Unlike her, when they say there are red lines, they seriously bloody mean it!

I think that we’re all agreed that it’s turning into a disaster.

On the contrary, I think it's ****ing hilarious!

You mean paying what they asked for after months of saying we wouldn’t?

Making stuff up on all accounts there. There’s a well established trend here

And people complain thst the Brexshiteers told porkies !!!

jam bo - Member

The bill solution was a master stroke of how sensible negotiators and grown ups work.

You mean paying what they asked for after months of saying we wouldn’t? We sure bamboozled them there...

Thats about it. Months of saying " you can go whistle" and then making movement after movement until you arrive at the EUs minimum point. What a waste of a year. What a waste of goodwill. What sheer buffoonery

So May, ostensibly the PM of one of the world's leading nations with 660 Parliamentarians, agrees a major international agreement with the world's largest free trade block, and de facto goes public.

The regional special interest party with only 10 MPs yanks her chain and blocks the whole thing.

How can her position possibly be tenable?

Don’t forget we’ve got the EU27 to appease as well when we finally reach the end game of this.

Course this May already be stitched up behind the scenes and what are seeing is “bread and circuses” for the plebs.

Or they’re winging it.

The alternative point of view appears to be that Varadkar or EU tried to leak a draft copy of the agreement in order to bounce May into agreeing to their wording, but she held firm.

[img] [/img]

That'll be an 'alternative view' that has just been made up by ninfan and released onto the Internet to acquire the status of 'truth'.

Just in case anyone was wondering. 🙄

They’re clearly making this up on the hoof, and consulting absolutely nobody in the process

Almost as if he’s inadvertently disseminating fake news.

The only negotiation we are seeing is the different factions of the tories arguing with each other.

I'm lovin' it.

Meanwhile, here’s Donald Tusk’s take:

[i]Met with PM @theresa_may. I was ready to present draft EU27 guidelines tomorrow for #Brexit talks on transition and future. But UK and Commission asked for more time. It is now getting very tight but agreement at December #EUCO is still possible.[/i]

dannyh - actually suggested by the DUP

Making stuff up on all accounts there. There’s a well established trend here

So was Boris et al making it up when they were telling the EU to ‘go whistle’? Or was that all part of the cunning plan. As cunning as a fox, etc, etc...

Keep believing in yourself THM, no one else does.

Another reality check for May tomorrow:

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/11/24/actualidad/1511545968_513128.html

Gibralta isn't offically on the agenda (for now) but the future of 130 000 Spaniards and 300 000 Brits will be.

We have consistently argued that we will honour our financial commitments - I view Bojo as about as reliable as our very own STW tag team but much less amusing - and we have a deal that is consistent with current payments and 40-50% of the inflated figures bandied about.

I merely believe in the facts. Stick to them and you can believe in yourself. Try it....

teamhurtmore - Member

You mean paying what they asked for after months of saying we wouldn’t?

Making stuff up on all accounts there. There’s a well established trend here

Uhhh, we definitely said we'd pay nothing, and they could go whistle, as they would be so grateful for us continuing to buy their cars and cheese, rather than importing it from China.

And then in the end we gave them what they asked for.

Nope ^2

Have we mentioned Little Liam’s “we hold all the cards”?

Anyone seen anything much of him recently?

I merely believe in the facts. Stick to them and you can believe in yourself. Try it....

Nonsense - away with you, we prefer to live in the wild hyperbole that within three days of Brexit the worlds markets will be closed to U.K. trade and armed guards will stand at the Irish border preventing Tayto crisps being exchanged like bitcoin and shooting those trying to flee to the south

So in THM-world, the £20Bn offer never existed, it was always clear that the UK was going to pay £50Bn+....

....

...so why did it take so long for that to be agreed then, if it was never in doubt?

THM alt truth.

Boris and Patel both made statements to the effect that Brussels can “go whistle” and “sod off”, respectively, but that’s not necessarily the official line of our negotiators.

But there’s been a noticeable winding in of the hubris since June, plus as I’ve said before I suspect that those impact assessments will have had some sway in softening the tone.

oh,and Ninfantasist

As an aside, I’m viewing the constant badgering of THM with growing distaste.

We may not all agree, but I hope that we can at least try to keep it civil.

Keep it quiet but - ssshhhhh - we are in a [i]negotiation [/i]

(It’s what negotiators do, but mums the word 😉 )

So if the leavers aren’t getting what they thought they voted for and the ‘remoaners’ think it’s a shit idea anyway, remind me why we are doing this again?

A Spanish friend just asked me "So . . . .almost half the country, led by a party that lost the election and had to jump in bed with some loonies, is being forced down a road they don't want to go because a prime minister, who also didn't want to go down that road, was forced to call a referendum"?

Because it’s:

Too big to fail
The people have spoken
To save face
Party before country
Etc

Delete as applicable.

PJM1974 - Member

As an aside, I’m viewing the constant badgering of THM with growing distaste.

We may not all agree, but I hope that we can at least try to keep it civil.

Given his long term personal attacks on people, his sneering contempt and his obvious falsehoods I don't think he gets it too badly. Well protected by the mods. Its different from Jamba who is not rude. THM is deliberately rude

Modern politics innit?

Those who make the most noise set the agenda

Got to love it! Cheers!

[img] [/img]

tjagain - Member
dannyh - actually suggested by the DUP

POSTED 19 MINUTES AGO # REPORT-POST

Oh, well, in that case.......

[img] [/img]<

PJM - save your kind thoughts. The posse in full flow is always a sight to behold and half the 1XV have yet to turn up.

Remember opposing views must be quashed at all costs 😉

we are in a negotiation

Yeah, but we hold no cards, the EU holds them all,

that’s why the U.K. had to cave in today and the Irish got the guarantees they wanted.

(Oh...)

The Irish dont want a hard border, fine... now perhaps someone could tell me again how holding up negotiations and increasing the chance of no deal (which we are willing to walk away with, because as we said from the start, it’s better than a bad deal) helps deliver that?

A Spanish friend just asked me...

Did you point out to him the distinct lack of police smashing peoples heads in with batons at our referenda? Or that Nigel Farage isn’t currently in exile for daring to lead the rebellion (as much as some of you may like him to be)

If all of us think that the moderators favour everyone else then they’re clearly doing their job.

I bowed out of this thread a couple of months back because I was uncomfortable with the mud slinging, things haven’t improved in general.

Meh. I’m going riding. By the time I get back hopefully someone will have found some unicorn dust down the back of the sofa and waved a magic wand.

Till then I maintain it’s a complete bit of a mess. A totally uncessary, self inflicted one too.

Ninfan there are many ironies in this whole debacle.

teamhurtmore - Member
Keep it quiet but - ssshhhhh - we are in a negotiation

(It’s what negotiators do, but mums the word )

POSTED 6 MINUTES AGO # REPORT-POST

[img] ?itemid=5683012[/img]

Ohhhh, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, haaaaaaaaaaa!

As an aside, I’m viewing the constant badgering of THM with growing distaste.

We may not all agree, but I hope that we can at least try to keep it civil.

Yep most heartedly agree

I do like to see THM’s take/view on this thread although he can be a tad crotchety 🙂

I hope you replied, "yes, except no-one forced that prime minister to call a refererendum, he just promised to and did so", Spekkie.

My French friends are every bit as preceptive as your Spanish friends, their main concern is that Britain should be prevented from gaining any kind of unfair advantage from Brexit.

AirB&B have developed a card system based in London and Gibralta so that rental incomes can be hinden from the French and Spanish tax collectors (and other countries too I presume). This kind of tax evasion facilitaed by London-based tax optimising firms is getting a lot of press in France, I assume Macron watches TF1 and reads a paper now and then. Britain is increasingly being presented as the dirty-dealing, tax-cheating black sheep of Europe. Just as 27 EU leaders have to sign off any deal with the UK. I'd like to thank our media sources for doing an excellent job.

Britain is increasingly being presented as the dirty-dealing, tax-cheating black sheep of Europ

Some deflection going on there then. UK is up there but Holland compete nicely and then Ireland and Luxembourg make both UK and Holland look like amateurs.

dissonance - the UK are the masters. all those crown dependencies and other assorted offshore havens .