[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

Every step that puts clarity on what the replacement for EU membership really will be, will increase support for remaining a member. Very unlikely that Brexit will be stopped (or delayed), but support for such a move will continue to increase as a single "real deal" appears, and the multiple conflicting deals and unicorn promises are put to bed.

Another easy compromise because despite what the nutters say, if you are exporting into a market you have to abide by their standards anyway. So a very easy compromise.

Trade soon....

Only the fool thinks the cake exists in the mouth and on the plate simultaneously.

I visit a motorbike forum who are very very leave (or run awayers as I call them).
They are very very quiet.

DUP sources said they did not believe the draft posted by RTE earlier (see 11.44am) had been agreed by the British government. They said they suspected that the leak of the draft document was designed to “bounce” May and the British negotiators into a deal over the heads of the DUP.

The DUP are also confident that they have support among the Tory back benches to oppose any move by May and the government to accept this Brexit-Irish border blueprint, the sources said.

The PM is caught in the perfect storm, the situation is thus:

1) If Clinton had won the US election, a UK-US trade deal would've been far easier to sell to the electorate. Unfortunately, a divisive demagogue with a history of reneging on trade deals won instead.

2) Europe is THE most divisive issue within the Conservative Party. A hard Brexit would be a horrific scenario for three-quarters of Tory MPs. A significant amount of contributions to the party come from businesses and farmers, who stand to significantly lose out in event of a WTO Brexit.

3) Appeasing the Hard Brexiteers is likely to lose the Conservatives the next election and probably the one after that. The party is in a mess, having taken only seven years to plunge into dysfunction and even a partisan media won't be enough to save them.

4) Labour have understandably stood back from the sidelines and watched the shitshow unfold, knowing that the last thing they actually want is to be handed a poisoned chalice, which is exactly what will happen if the government collapses. They appear to be adhering to the text of the referendum ballot, which stipulated Single Market access.

5) If Theresa May backs away from a Hard Brexit, the issue of Europe will continue to haunt the Conservative Party with a probable damaging euro-sceptic rebellion further down the line.

6) It is only a matter of time before someone leaks those heavily redacted impact assessment reports. No-one (yet) outside of the various select committees have seen them, but suffice it is to say that they are sufficiently damaging to ensure that MPs obfuscated over their release.

7) No-one in their right mind wants to be a Conservative Prime Minister right now. The leadership challengers are waiting in the wings because their most optimistic move to grab power would be on the back of a general election loss and subsequent term of parliament rebuilding the party in opposition.

8) Ireland. Either allow NI regulatory alignment with Eire, or the resulting hard border between the two regions crosses a line for both Dublin and the DUP. Such a move could potentially plunge Northern Ireland into unrest, which could not easily be blamed on the actions of a few extremists.

9) a PM promoted beyond her competence and surrounded by nutters and rebels and facing an oppo who hold all the cards (apparently), with a weak minority government, and bullies who want to squeeze her into a corner, might, just might, pull of a result.

What were the odds on that!!

I do hope our bulldog negotiating tactics won’t scare off potential foreign investors.

teamhurtmore - Member
9) a PM promoted beyond her competence and surrounded by nutters and rebels and facing an oppo who hold all the cards (apparently), with a weak minority government, and bullies who want to squeeze her into a corner, might, just might, pull of a result.

What were the odds on that!!

I think the reality is, everyone, including the brexit nutters are clueless and scared about what comes next, so theyre secretly happy to let May take the lead

What were the odds on that!!

THM - You don't seriously believe that do you?

All of the evidence thus far suggests that our PM is barely competent. Granted, she's only been in office since July 2016, so I can only fall back on her career at the Home Office for an assessment of her record in government.

BBC saying now that deal wont be done today

and it looks like the agreement may have failed already...

DUP are putting the blockers on it.

Unfortunately, eighteen months of bungling and a cavalier attitude towards the causes of the Referendum result, not to mention MPs putting party before country have brought us to the point where it's conceivable that the government may fall before xmas.

The smartest thing they could do is try to form a government of national unity and postpone Brexit pending a public inquiry, however the hard-right of the party wouldn't countenance that. I think they'd rather hand the poisoned chalice to Labour and watch them implode from afar.

a PM promoted beyond her competence and surrounded by nutters and rebels and facing an oppo who hold all the cards (apparently), with a weak minority government, and bullies who want to squeeze her into a corner, might, just might, pull of a result.

[img] [/img]

my 2p: there'll be a deal because EU want one and it will be on the EU's terms. the postponement is so May can run back to Dacre et al saying "look there I was being a bloody difficult woman like I promised". it's a bit of gracious face saving from Juncker is all.

Oh dear Junker belched

PJM - agreed her track record has been poor. That's why it would be quite something if she managed to pull off some kind of deal, especially with everything going on around her. Last laugh and all that....

Juncker: No deal reached on Irish border.

Scotland, Wales and London all want the same regulatory alignment deal as Northern Ireland.

They appear to be adhering to the text of the referendum ballot, which stipulated Single Market access.

Must have missed that bit on my ballot paper

The press seems to be having problems of its' own. The Daily Heil is obviously feeling the backlash by the moderate majority, as is The Sun. The Telegraph has been hollowed out to the point that journalistic staff have been cut to the bone.

Newspaper headlines are becoming increasingly shrill in a way that smacks of desperation. Sooner or later, there will be a public backlash.

Must have missed that bit on my ballot paper

[url= http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/open-britain-video-single-market-nigel-farage-anna-soubry_uk_582ce0a0e4b09025ba310fce ]Here[/url]

We were explicitly told by many prominent politicians from the Leave camp that leaving the EU would not mean leaving the Single Market.

So, who do we think “leaked” draft wording of an agreement that suggested accepting U.K. continued EU regulations?

Phew - looks like phase 2 can commence soon. Well done the grown ups. Despite all the **** going on around then they look like to have pulled of some sensible compromises here. Shame it took so long but not easy.

Good job that remoaners who claimed none of this would be possible look like they are being proved wrong. No wonder the £ is up too!

That post aged well.

ninfan - Member
So, who do we think “leaked” draft wording of an agreement that suggested accepting U.K. continued EU regulations?

someone with a long list of political misteps & poor leadership skills desperate to get fired from a job she hates that has brought her nothing but misery ?

[img] [/img]

ninfan - Member
So, who do we think “leaked” draft wording of an agreement that suggested accepting U.K. continued EU regulations?

Probably May?

So deal has failed I take it?

Today anyway?

How long until she reveals Freedom of Movement will continue as well?

From the Beeb:

The BBC's political editor said Mr Lamberts had said the UK was prepared to accept that Northern Ireland may remain in the EU's customs union and single market in all but name. But, she stressed, the BBC has not seen the draft document nor has it been signed off

The DUP are going to go mental....

We..the ballot paper simply asked "should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

No mention on single market

My point being that prominent members of the Leave campaign explicitly stated that we would remain part of the Single Market.

I've supplied a citation to support that assertion.

Why, you don't think that we were [i]lied to[/i] do you?

Twodogs - Member
We..the ballot paper simply asked "should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

No mention on single market

In hindsight that ballot paper was deeply flawed as this whole mess has shown.

It was never going to be as simple as a pure binary choice.

So all the UK to remain in the customs union and a raft of resignations from the cabinet? Seems as likely an outcome as any other.

I think that a personal slur

Hearing it was the DUP call that sunk today's chances of a deal - Foster held her press conf, 20 mins later May leaves talks with Juncker to call her, goes back into the room and the deal is off

So the DUP have scuppered this deal already. Inevitable and just as I said eeks ago. any deal on NI that satisfies the DUP will not satisfy Dublin or the EU and vice versa

In hindsight that ballot paper was deeply flawed as this whole mess has shown.

It was never going to be as simple as a pure binary choice.

Absolutely...and all I'm doing is pointing out an inaccuracy in a statement.

I posted that senior members of the Leave camp stated on numerous occasions that we would remain in the single market in event of a leave vote. I supplied a citation to support my statement.

There was ample opportunity to present a counter argument without resorting to personal insult. I stand by that.

I seem to have provoked a strong response by that statement.

salad_dodger - Member
So all the UK to remain in the customs union and a raft of resignations from the cabinet? Seems as likely an outcome as any other.

Possible but I think the DUP are going to be the ones truly exploding over any special status given to NI.

NI is a paradox, it can't be solved if the UK truly leave the EU unless there is a hard border which the EU won't accept. Paradox.

I've supplied a citation to support that assertion.

Which was full of lies, as proven by my own citation

pjm - leavers said anything to anybody that they thought they wanted to hear.

Funny, DUP wouldn't have been in a position to obstruct May if she hadn't called the General Election she said she wasn't going to call.

Which was full of lies

Scotland, Wales and London all want the same regulatory alignment deal as Northern Ireland.

so are we leaving the EU on a county by county basis now?

You're sure that Daniel Hannan never stated that -excuse the paraphrasing- "No one is threatening our place in the single market?

You did not say "the citation is incorrect". You called me a liar.

Difference.

FWIW I've reported the post.

Ninfan is an expert witness on this subject

now now Junkyard. If Open Britain say something that is inaccurate, it means PJM is a liar. Can't you follow this simple logic? 😮

We..the ballot paper simply asked "should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

No mention on single market

Why would it? It’s pefectly clear what membership of the EU means and involves and what it doesn’t.

Does it mean continued regulatory convergence, or no regulatory divergence, or what exactly?

It’s pefectly clear what membership of the EU means and involves and what it doesn’t.

I respectfully, and with referencing your tendencies toward truths or falsehoods, disagree.

This statement of mine is supported by the postings of one THM who is quite clear that the EU is changing and we do not know what it will become.

I’m playing of course. What you meant was it’s clear what leaving the EU means.

I disagree with that too as you would expect.

It can mean many things - otherwise a bespoke deal would not be possible.

I’ve just been emailed by a moderator to say that aparrently calling someone a liar, even when they aren’t telling the truth, is a personal insult

“'Liar' No personal insults thanks”

So, in that case, I’ll politely revise my assessment of PJM1974 to “potentially inadvertent purveyor of misrepresentation and fake news”

Since he stated that

Here

We were explicitly told by many prominent politicians from the Leave camp that leaving the EU would not mean leaving the Single Market.

Despite the fact that that the citation he linked to as proof of his claim was thoroughly dissected and rebuffed as misrepresentation of the facts here:

I’m now going to remind you all that [b]the UK sends £350 million a week to the EU[/b], and if anyone says thats not true then I’ll act like a big wet girl and cry to the moderators about it.

Why would it? It’s pefectly clear what membership of the EU means and involves and what it doesn’t.

THM - on the surface of it, that is correct. But there are non-member states who enjoy access to the single market i.e. Switzerland, Norway. It's fair to say that it's a far more complex question than anyone realised, for my part I have grave concern that the vote to leave the EU was driven chiefly by immigration with scant regard being paid to the economic benefit.

Did you, as someone who voted Remain ever imagine that the next eighteen months would prove to be a difficult for central government to reach a consensus as they've proven to be? I know that I didn't. Did any of us consider Europol, Euratom for example?

Ninfan is right of course, but I remember noting at the time of Brillo's piece that his argument hinged on what was said by MPs and MEPs [i]during the referendum campaign[/i], but said nothing of what was said before and after.

Here's BoJo on 26/06/2016:

"British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will [b]continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. [/b]"

And we all know about Hannan. And Cameron.....

So ninfan is factually correct. However, prominent Leave MP/MEPs making these kind of pronouncements [i]at any time [/i]mean that the possibility of turning Brexit around (as unlikely as it is anyway) are reduced, as those who don't delve deeply think that's the way its going to be. So they continue to set the tone.

How surprising is it to note that a Labour-controlled Brexit just became not only possible but likely? Strange times eh?

the UK sends £350 million a week to the EU, and if anyone says thats not true then I’ll act like a big wet girl and cry to the moderators about it.

That is disingenuous. Or were you just joking with that comment?

teamhurtmore - Member
We..the ballot paper simply asked "should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
No mention on single market

Why would it? It’s pefectly clear what membership of the EU means and involves and what it doesn’t.

I didn't say it should or shouldn't...I just said it didn't.

Any sign of THMs "adults" or behind the scenes deals being done?

[b][i]"access to the single market"[/i][/b] means NOTHING…

Even Farage understands that all countries have access to the single market…

The "kind" of access we require… especially as regards NI, is to operate in the Single Market and Customs union, and all that entails. Convergence on regulation, sharing in the trade deals made by a large block of countries, etc… of course Farage doesn't come to the same conclusion… don"t be like Farage.

THM - on the surface of it, that is correct. But there are non-member states who enjoy access to the single market i.e. Switzerland, Norway. It's fair to say that it's a far more complex question than anyone realised,

Being the kind hearted person that I am 😉 I posted this many times from the HoL

[b]From the outset, it is important that the Government, Parliament and the public are clear about the distinction between ‘access to’ and ‘membership of’ the Single Market[/b]. Many countries have ‘access to’ the EU’s Single Market, either through agreed tariffs at the WTO or via a FTA. [b]However, the only countries which have full membership of the Single Market—which entails the liberalised movement of goods, services, people and capital (the ‘Four Freedoms’), secured through common rules interpreted by the European Court of Justice (CJEU)— are EU Member States[/b]. The EEA states only enjoy partial membership, because the EEA agreement does not include a customs union. On the other hand, Turkey’s inclusion in a customs union with the EU does not entail the free movement of services, people or capital. Fundamentally, full membership of the Single Market is predicated upon acceptance of all Four Freedoms

Of course the trolls and the chief in particular were very unhappy when this was posted. But facts have always being inconvenient for them

Have you missed today’s news TJ?!?

You are very funny

Anyone just hear Varadkar?

There’s a deal.
Ok let’s announce that.
Hello, is that Leo?
Yep, what’s up Terry?
Ah, about that deal...that bloody difficult woman in Belfast!

That is disingenuous. Or were you just joking with that comment?

I'm going with disingenuous. While I disagree with ninfan on many points, I refrain from personal insult.

There are countries that are not members of the EU that are part of the SM and/or the CU.
It is a political choice beyond that advised by the referendum result, to not operate in the SM and CU.
Today reminds us of that so very clearly.

Even your choice quote is flawed THM…

The EEA states only enjoy partial membership, because the EEA agreement does not include a customs union

Woolly, no? They don't have "partial membership"' do they? If we were part of the customs union and the single marktet, would we have "full membership"? I think not. We'd be non-members operating in systems of which we were not members, wouldn't we?

Membership of v access to

It’s not that hard.

We are negotiating the terms of the latter having given up the former. Very clear.

TJ the grown up Mr Varadkar “confident possible to find deal in December”

But you can always keep ignoring the truth. No grown ups, no chance of a deal, no behind the scenes negotiations. No, really? 😉

I quite enjoyed pointing out to THM that from logical consideration of his posts he doesn’t know what in or out of the EU means.

But he doesn’t want to play today. Fair enough.

That inflection point is coming closer by the day now though.

We are negotiating the terms of the latter having given up the former. Very clear.

Better still to be members and not give up control of course.

Tut, tut

Having access to the SM and CU

It’s not that difficult really

But good to see that you have now recognised that the Irish border comes after the agreement over what form of access to the SM and CU is negotiated. So quite a bit of progress today all-in-all

what a day to be busy at work !

still , very happy for NI and Ireland if reports are true .

The fall out in the rest of the UK is going to be huge .

I’m now going to remind you all that the UK sends £350 million a week to the EU, and if anyone says thats not true then I’ll act like a big wet girl and cry to the moderators about it.

It's not true. It doesn't take into account the £100m rebate we get, so the actual figure is around £250m. And that neatly ignores all the money that comes back again.

Incidentally, we were just debating whether you'd whine for getting a warning or not. I won.

Tut, tut

Having access to the SM and CU

It’s not that difficult really

Meaningless twaddle. Every country I can think of has access.
It is set out in treaties which specific countries are inside both the SM & CU.

THM - I’m right in thinking one can preserve access to the SM and CU by remaining in the EU - and as a bonus get some say over their rules.

I’m right ain’t I?

TJ the grown up Mr Varadkar “confident possible to find deal in December”

Has this been approved by the not-very-grown-up Arlene Foster?

Question is how much is this going to cost May

The DUP didn't come cheap at the first bribe.

I see Vote Leave nob Owen Patterson caught lying again on R4 this morning, NI send 37% of its exports to EU, not 'small amount- 5% ' as he tried to BS earlier.

Whether it's money for the NHS, leaving the SM or trade figures, you can never trust a brexy !

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42223732

But good to see that you have now recognised that the Irish border comes after the agreement over what form of access to the SM and CU is negotiated. So quite a bit of progress today all-in-all

To progress to a trade deal, one of the EU countries needs promises as regards the border, and despite both EU and UK teams insisting otherwise, there is no way that can fail to have a knock on effect on what agreements will be arrived at as regards SM & EU. Hopefully, we will all in the UK end up operating inside both the SM & CU, even if not EU members.

[ edited to be more polite - no point rising to that oh so familiar patronising tone ]

ninfan - Member

I’m now going to remind you all that the UK sends £350 million a week to the EU

Sir David Norgrove says you're a liar

IGM had we voted to retain our membership then yes. Try to avoid the woolly “in” phrase. As you can see, it confuses people

****.

Indeed kelvin our “team” is currently negotiating the terms of our access to the SM and CU despite what some would have you believe

Let’s hope they succeed

Incidentally, we were just debating whether you'd whine for getting a warning or not. I won.

😆

Anyway.

THM. What is it you want from Brexit? Is it a 'Brexit' in name only? Or is it the more 'ideological' end of the spectrum?

If we do get a 'Brexit' it will be so far removed from what the 'nothing short of carpet bombing Dresden will do' loons, then it will please nobody. I acknowledge whoever used that turn of phrase earlier.

Whatever happens, Brexit is the end of Tory government for a long, long time. It is a problem of their own making and seeing them wriggle, squirm and in-fight is thoroughly entertaining.

So much for the progres some claimed would have been made by now. On page 990 I made these posts a month ago:

There's such a huge gulf between what might reasonably be expected of the UK and what Davies is offering that progress seems unlikely.

On NI the EU is insisting on some kind of physical checks at the border as it would be the EU border with the UK and the EU needs to be able to stop Britian flooding the EU with tarif free goods from the rest of the world (tarif free trade with the rest of the world was a reason for Brexit remember). The UK has so far refused this.

On the divorce payment the figures I've seen from the UK side, £20bn and £38bn, have both been denied and are far from the figures calculated and presented by the EU. The UK figures barely cover membership during the Art. 50 period and an eventual transition period, adding the part of EU debt attributable to the UK and pensions gives a figure of around 100bn euros. The EU needs a figure with parliamentary backing to work on, that's when negotiations will start, and end if the figure is seen as rediculously low.

The DUP having a hold on the Tories means progress on NI is unlikely so I can't see "negotiations" going far. Negotiations thus far can sumarised as:

Britain "we hear what you're asking and we refuse point blank, go whistle".

EU "OK, next meeting in two months then".

and repeat at each meeting of Davies and Barnier.

So NI is a catch 22 with the only way out being to cancel Brexit.

Edit to add: The Good Friday agreement was torn up when th eTories formed a coalition with the DUP, the British government is no longer impartial.

Britain is pressing on with Brexit with a government that includes the DUP. Brexit and the Good Friday agreement are incompatible on many levels as you'll see if you read through the agreement. The agreement includes freedoms and responsibilites that are incompatible with NI and Eire being on two sides of an EU/rest of world frontier. Negotiating those away or simply removing them (hard Brexit) is in breach of the Good Friday agreement (and if you refuse to honour your responsibilities in a signed agreement then in popular parlance you are "tearing it up").

The car crash continues.

But good to see that you have now recognised that the Irish border comes after the agreement over what form of access to the SM and CU is negotiated. So quite a bit of progress today all-in-all

This is utter nonsense. The agreement on the 3 principles has to be made before any negotiations on trade can be started. There is no agreement therefore no trade talks

Sir David Norgrove says you're a liar

No, he says that without further explanation I’m being potentially misleading.

So there 😉

It's not true. It doesn't take into account the £100m rebate we get, so the actual figure is around £250m. And that neatly ignores all the money that comes back again.

So, you’re saying that it’s a lie, or it isn’t a lie?

I mean, you know, if you can5 say that someone was lying by posting material which was proven to be deliberate misrepresentation of what leave campaigners said about single market membership, then you can’t accuse me of lying for posting up material that is technically true but potentially deliberately misleading without further explanation

Incidentally, we were just debating whether you'd whine for getting a warning or not. I won.

Proved the point on the partiality of moderation though haven’t I - bet a tenner you wouldn’t have intervened if anyone called me a liar despite the “No personal insults” rule

THM - I wouldn’t want to add to your undoubted confusion [s]in[/s] concerning this matter. 😉

I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it.