[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

democracy and silenced, 2 words that go well together in a sentence.... 😆

Yeah, thought so...

Simple isn't it or are you just hoping for a tory whitewash sending the UK closer to the US level of life where the poor can just piss off and die quietly while you can pump your food full of hormones?

Of the 37% that voted leave I'll say confidently and less that half that will be happy with the end result. That will be a truly democratic moment.

ninfan - my country voted remain 😉

There is no mandate for the hard exit we are now heading for as that is not what the people were told would happen

There is nothing to negotiate. We will get the crumbs the rest of the EU offer us. thats it. We hold no cards, we have nothing to offer. they have already written us off. There is no incentive or reason for anyone in the EU to give us any sort of deal

Europe stands at the edge of a Soveriegn debt cliff
Qunatative easing by the ECB was too late, Europe is stagnating
Unemployment amongst the young is at a critical level (25-50%)
WTO tariffs would hurt European exporters to the wealthy UK market very badly
Despite all the collectove tough talking many countries face testing elections

We have the strongest cards and by far

You keep on telling yourself that Jamba - meanwhile in the real world......................

the UK market is small beer to the EU.

Sorry, I know this is a few pages back, but the sheer doublethink of this recent Jamby post needs more scrutiny:

jambalaya - Member
@TJ did you see that Government stat of the amount of business Scotland does with UK vs EU ? Having tariff free access to the UK is much more important. An iS will look very exposed economically with a WTO deal with the UK and a $50 oil price.

Here we have someone who has in the face of an awful lot of facts campaigned that a smaller party (the UK) ceding from a larger party (the EU) would bring economic freedom and prosperity for that smaller party through a nebulous membership to an even larger party (WTO). But now the smaller party is Scotland, the medium party is the UK, and the larger party is the EU he decides that the smaller party is at grave risk of economic ruin if it cedes from the medium party, and stronger membership with the larger party wouldn't outweigh this.

I know many Jambyfacts make no sense, but that really takes the biscuit

Any decent government would come up with a good down the middle compromise that includes the will of the 48% of people who wanted to remain. The will of the people is not just the 52% who wanted to leave...

Ninfan - once parliament vote A50 through I will accept the legitimacy of the process. However I will still regard it as the wrong decision and do what can to oppose it.
That means little things like choosing not to spend my money with businesses that supported Brexit. And if a 50:59 decision on hiring staff comes by, should I consider voting for Brexit a demonstration of a lack of judgment? You'd have to consider it.

once parliament vote A50 through I will accept the legitimacy of the process.

There is nothing to negotiate. We will get the crumbs the rest of the EU offer us. thats it. We hold no cards, we have nothing to offer. they have already written us off. There is no incentive or reason for anyone in the EU to give us any sort of deal

Why are we hiring so many negotiaters then?

Why has the EU got a negotiating team?

Why would they not lose from a disruption in trade with an important trading partner?

Jambas. Any chance of one date point that supports your argument that EU is stagnating (when it is growing only slightly less that the UK and in several cases faster?)

So Kerley your proposal for keeping the 48 happy when we leave is...... ? I thought they (me) wanted to stay, so how will they be happy when we leave? Do we get an EU flag each for nostalgia?

Mike when did the government make any promises about £350m and the NHS?

Naah. We get personal freedom of movement and anything sold to us doesn't have tariffs applied. All our Brexy friends will love us 'cos we can get stuff cheap.

The French elections just became a lot more open. It turns out Fillon gave his wife a fictitious job for which the tax payer paid her 800 000e over five years. My personal appreciation on the basis of their performance so far:

1= Macron/Hamond
2 Melonchon
3 Le Pen
4 Fillon

Mike when did the government make any promises about £350m and the NHS?

Made by the winning side in the referendum. If Jamba (or May) can argue that the remain side saying leave means leave everything, then arguing the £350m is equally valid (probably more given it was what the winning side said they'd do - they never said they'd leave everything or Jamba would have told us - that was just what the losing side said the winning side would do if they won - which they did, by an extremely narrow margin).

Yeah, but she did some real work didn't she, Edukator? The fact that no one could find it....

Has anyone spotted I'm bored on a long train journey again?

Made by the winning side in the referendum

Indeed. The question remains unanswered though

Paid four or five time the SMIC for work no-one can find, igm, that's not going to go down well with the centre-right voters Fillon needs on his side to win. He lost me long ago and I'm a part of the demographic he needs, I've voted Bayrou and Sarko on a national level and green in the Europeans.

THM - I don't recall Cameron's government making those promises. But that's irrelevant - we have a new government now - same MPs (roughly) but a new government.
Same as it's irrelevant whether remain or Cameron's government said we'd leave the single market - we have a new government now.

Edukator - agreed. It is a little unfortunate isn't it?

No we don't, we have a new PM and some different bums on seats.

The gov didn't say we'd leave, they said that they would implement the outcome whatever the people decide.

That is what they are doing. For that, at least, they should be applauded especially as it goes against their wishes. Democracy hey!!

All they were asked was "leave EU?"
If you are going to include leave single market you need to include pay £350m a week to NHS in order to maintain any consistency.

PS - a new PM and a few different bums on seats is a new government. We (some time ago) elected parliament, but Mrs May has formed a government.

Might be going against Mays wishes, but shes a career politician don't forget.. she'd be runining her career if she stuck to her 'beliefs'... so what call do you think she'd make? Hahah!

Edukator - agreed. It is a little unfortunate isn't it?

It think Edukator got his numbers the wrong way round, I have read it is £500,000 over 8 Years, but is is a storm in a tea cup, the French will understand that British productivity lags behind.

So igm, what do you mean by the EU? What do YOU think that we have voted to leave?

teamhurtmore - Member
So igm, what do you mean by the EU? What do YOU think that we have voted to leave?

Because people too readily believe what the tabloids say, tabloids that may have vested interest in the vote going a certain way.

That's a damn good question and one that MPs need to discuss / debate. (That's what MPs are for - well one of the things)
I'm a bit of a "what it says on the tin" type on this. Things you can only be in if you're in the EU we have voted to leave. Everything else is up for grabs.

We can assert to our hearts content what that vote may or may not have meant - but the only thing we know is that it meant leave the EU itself. It said nothing about things that you have to be part of to be in the EU, but you don't have to be in the EU to be part of.

we have just had months of discussions - what do YOU think it is and what have we left?

For sample, did we vote to give up membership of the single market? The reason I ask is that you seem to be mixing the what (EU/singer market perhaps?) and the why (I struggle to type this but the £350m). IMO they are separate.

No - see above.

Given Norway is in the single market (though that assumes one definition of the single market and there may be others) but they are not in the EU, then that fails the test. You can leave the EU and still be part of the single market.

I have got the numbers the wrong way around - half-remembered from the radio.

I think the level of corruption of candidates will have a big influence in the forthcoming French elections. People have seen Trump elected and Brexit voted for on the basis of lies and want to vote for someone with a minimum of integrity. That's going to be very difficult given Le pen's Russian connections, Fillon's "mates" and now an "emploi fictif". Macron being an ex banker and Melonchon having all the wrong communist pals. That leaves Hamon.

So how do you leave the EU but remain a member of the single market and why would you do that?

THe EU is a single market, that is what distinguishes it from a FTA or a CU. That is it's very essence and DNA.

teamhurtmore - Member
So how do you leave the EU but remain a member of the single market and why would you do that?

I don't believe many leavers considered that question in any depth, they just got fed the 'EU is bad mkay' line so often they didn't think it through.

Accept the 4 freedoms and that negotiation ought to be easy (we didn't vote on the4 freedoms either).

Why would you do it? Better than the poor alternatives we have left ourselves with.

I'd stay in the EU and to hell with 52% in an advisory referendum. But then I'm bloody minded, don't value nationalism and regard sovereignty as something we already had in any meaningful sense.

That's very odd since it is the heart of the question. Sounds like we need another referendum doesn't if, for all the hard of thinking. Might have to phrase it differently though as they wont like that term

THM - as I recall we can agree on the "enough with the daft referenda" view. 😉

Are you trying to wind mefty up - referenda???

So you want to accept the four freedoms. How about contributions to the budget?

There is a basic problem with simple referenda in that they aren't simple.
Do you want to leave the EU - yes or no?
Easy. Except no one knows what the question means. All sorts of people think they know, but they don't all agree.
Now you improve it by turning the question round as asking what we should become -then a no vote is for the status quo.
Should we become part of the EEA instead of the EU?
But even then it's messy. The wreckers would just argue you'd asked the wrong question.
To come up with a clear sensible question is extremely difficult and then you run the risk that will be long and will be misunderstood even though it's clear.

Referenda are s bad idea in a democracy such as ours. The polarise opinion and lead to division. The rarely build consensus.

Budget contributions?

I'm ok with that. Fag packet calculations suggest we get more tax back due to increased European trade than the tax we spend on our club subs.
And that before we include in the slightly cheaper prices and more jobs in the country.

[b]Referendums[/b]
Voters and campaigners can decide the vote is about things other than the question.
The government then can read into the result a mandate for whatever they happen to want.

[i][i]BR - and you think the rest of the EU will stand for that? Well they might for airbus but not for other industries and even for airbus I bet the rest will just grab that wing building contract.[/I]

TJ Just pointing out the other side of May's "industrial strategy"; if you business isn't included in it you're probably toast.

So basically you are arguing, I want the government to ignore the result and stick to what we have. At least we are having some honesty now!!

I am sympathetic to the reasoning but believe that respecting the democratic process is more important, We lost. Not by much but we lost.

No one knows that the question means? Do you think that we were voting on the essence of the EU ie membership of the single market and all that this entails. Yes or no? If no, then what were we voting about?

May, before the referendum, made it clear she wanted an end to FoM and ECJ jurisdiction.
She has now made them the red lines in future negotiations.
That is what is limiting what can be achieved, nothing to do with "the will of the people".

There are lots of ways to leave the EU.

Well they are kind of core to the whole issue....r

How do you know how many ways there are? No one has done it before. This is a first.

If you mean retaining access then there are a v limited number, not lots. We have a bespoke deal - May's goal - of one of four alternatives: EEA, CU, FTA! WTO. We start the "negotiations" between two and three but skewed to three. Nothing more, nothing less.

It's not that difficult really. Only spoilers try to pretend otherwise.

If no, then what were we voting about?

Immigration
An inaccurate budget contribution
The NHS
Taking control of things (that there was already control of)

Or did I miss something? The vote certainly wasn't based on cost benefit analysis.

Do you think that we were voting on the essence of the EU ie membership of the single market and all that this entails. Yes or no? If no, then what were we voting about?

I know people who wanted "out of a political union" and to "still be part of the single market".
People who said they "like all the trading aspects of the single market" but wanted "no part of closer union."

I'm sure you do to.

The single market was not in the question.

You can chose to push the line that the only way to leave the EU is to leave the single market if you want.

THM - I'd love the government to stick the result and I do t think that damages democracy as much as calling referenda in the first place. I accept that probably isn't going to happen.
And the vote was about what was on the voting slip so the answer is no. It was purely about EU membership. Or if it wasn't then it was about every promise and threat during the campaign and if there is a mandate for one there is a mandate for all.

(apologise for joining in with using the simple term "single market", when in reality it is a whole number of different agreements that some countries are in, and some are not)