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Something to think about, when did the migration change from negative to positive? What also happened. The UK risks losing the young on mass, people go where the work is and if the work is no longer in the UK.
I think the OECD idea of long term decline is the reality of Brexit, there will be no second empire, no sunny uplands, it will just be a never ending rerun of the 70's.
I just about managed to miss the 70s first time round (in any meaningful sense - I was 9 when they ended). Good music, bad economy as it recall.
That said the 80s weren’t that good in Glasgow either.
PS was 70s net migration caused by all those successful rock stars heading for tax havens?
The UK risks losing the young on mass, people go where the work is and if the work is no longer in the UK.
They won't be able to any more. Not only is it going to be far harder for people to come here, it's going to be far harder for people to leave too. Removing freedom of movement cuts both ways.
More seriously, to take THM’s advice on forward planing to a personal level, it does look like trying to make sure you have a few emigration options up your sleeve would be a good idea.
Encourage your children to go to a foreign university if they can, learn languages (yes I know they all speak English but... ), break the ties to where you live if they are holding you back.
You don’t have to use those options but as THM says, do the planning and see which button needs pressing.
They won't be able to any more. Not only is it going to be far harder for people to come here, it's going to be far harder for people to leave too. Removing freedom of movement cuts both ways.
europe isn't on my escape list.
Learned something today. I though it was brinksmanship that was going on. Apparently it’s brinkmanship.
Also Bloomberg are echoing my analysis of proceedings fairly well. They stop short of suggesting that doing the best for both the British people (and, incidentally,everyone else) would be to junk Brexit as a thoroughly bad idea, but you can see the direction of travel.
And in case you are wondering what appeals to a slightly left of centre, relatively affluent (but certainly not rich) engineer and son of a former Labour activist, here’s the link to my echo chamber.
IGM, yup, I'm an engineer in o&g so there are opportunies for me to work elsewhere, I'm also eligable for an Irish passport, which I'll sort out if push comes to shove as it's not that cheap, and also means I'll have to get my grandad's death cert out of my mum/aunt, who are both ardent Brexiters (which made for some interesting conversations about [s]immigrants[/s], sorry economic migrants, pre-vote)
My gf has dual residency already, being from hong kong orignally, and she's doing a pgce as it's a pretty well recognised teaching qualification internationally.
Oh and I'm clearing debts and trying to build up a rainy-day find.
Not sure what else I can so, short of stockpiling bottled water and tinned food, and I'm not *that* crazy.
Oh and I'm clearing debts and trying to build up a rainy-day fund.
Excellent, don't tell THM.
I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it...
good article IGM
So how to explain the impasse given claims on both sides that they want an agreement? Beyond tactical brinkmanship, the only explanation is that this isn't a negotiation, at least not yet. It's more like a series of lectures and position statements directed at domestic audiences.
sums it up
sobriety, i don't know if you would be able to do this but this is what i did.
I needed my dads birth-cert to get my irish passport so went here.
http://www.hse.ie/eng/services/list/1/bdm/Certificates/
Then sent this with a copy of my UK birth cert etc to Cromwell road and got the passport a few weeks later.
Might get you around needing to speak to family members if you can get an official duplicate?
Surprising number of my colleagues turn out to be of Irish descent - and the more senior the faster they are availing themselves of passports.
My wife missed out by one generation.
Me, I’m a highly skilled Scots engineer. Welcome anywhere they understand me (and quite a few places they don’t).
The final salary pension and a settled family are what ties me here for now, but in 14 years the pension tops out, the boys are at uni or working - my wife and I might just go wandering.
They won't be able to any more. Not only is it going to be far harder for people to come here, it's going to be far harder for people to leave too. Removing freedom of movement cuts both ways.
If you're young you can get a working visa for NZ as an example. Once you have a job you can start looking at more permanent status and getting sponsors. If you have family members you can use them to aid your escape.
The older you get the harder it is to escape, but it's never impossible, just harder. All Brexit has achieved is to make it harder to escape, the easy route to Europe will have been removed.
Bluntly, those at the bottom whinging are the ones who will be left behind, The very people you need to keep, the determined, the driven, those are the ones who will leave in search of better things.
Already checked with Canada and theyd have us, made a very good contact with lab in vancouver
also have a colleague who has set up his own team in France and has offered a position
with young kids concious we'd have to move before they hit gcse age
If you're young you can get a working visa for NZ as an example. Once you have a job you can start looking at more permanent status and getting sponsors.
Which is, as I said, far harder than simply getting on a plane.
it does look like trying to make sure you have a few emigration options up your sleeve would be a good idea.
My only personal option is the USA. Talk about 'out of the frying pan'.
Might be able to sort something through work.
Molgrips, no argument that it is harder, but for me those who are most driven and with the best skills are the ones who will do it. The very people the UK needs to attract and retain!
Have the option if you can.
Use it if you need / want to.
Well qualified people can work anywhere, not just EU. Wife and I have been in Japan, many colleagues to USA and Canada, brother-in-law Australia. Generally start off with a short-term working visa tied to the job but after a few years it's usually easy to get permanent residence/citizenship.
Thanks mrmo, that's a good back up if I can't get the death/birth* cert off family.
*Many moons ago it transpired that his birth cert was likely destroyed in a fire at the record office...
Theresa's shmoozing went well the other night then?
[url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/18/britains-20bn-brexit-divorce-bill-offer-peanuts-says-european/ ][url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/18/britains-20bn-brexit-divorce-bill-offer-peanuts-says-european/ ]null[/url]
So no trade talks any time soon.
Hows that cliff edge looking?
Well qualified people can work anywhere, not just EU.
Only if you are lucky. You need a combination of factors to make it work.
When you worked in Japan, did you decide arbitrarily to go and work there, or were you offered or invited to apply for a position by someone you knew? A current employer perhaps?
You need a strong element of luck to get those. I know someone who went to work in the US, but that was because his wife's employer wanted her to do a particular job there so they pushed it through for her.
And of course, if you are in a country on a work-based visa then your life there is dependent on your job. So you run the risk of being kicked out if your job fails, which isn't so bad for young mobile people but it makes it rather difficult to build a life even if you are lucky.
*Many moons ago it transpired that his birth cert was likely destroyed in a fire at the record office...
Quite probably, but not definitely
http://www.irish-genealogy-toolkit.com/irish-records-burned.html
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41667556
The EU Withdrawal Bill may not now be discussed in the House of Commons until after the Autumn recess, sources have told the BBC.
The law is designed to transfer EU law into UK law ahead of Brexit.
It is facing stiff resistance from some Tory rebels as well as from the opposition parties.
One official source said it was not yet back in the house of Commons because there simply "is not enough political agreement yet".
MPs return from Autumn recess on 13 November.
Tick tock, tick tock
Well qualified people can work anywhere, not just EU.
Including in the UK. People with advantages will be fine, but it would be nice to imagine that we had a country where all could prosper, or at least be fed and housed. (I realise that this is anathema to the raving libertards.)
Well qualified people can work anywhere
I'm not well qualified. I still used my FOM rights to spend time in EU countries, to mutual benefit. I want those rights to continue and for my daughter to have them too.
Every leave vote is a direct and personal attack on those rights which I value, do not consent to being stripped of, and which she was born with.
Don't worry. Not everyone is thinking of relocating jobs out of the UK post-Brexit
The spokesman for Dominos Pizza has just been on 5 Live saying they'll be recruiting a lot more proud, patriotic home-grown native delivery drivers once all the bloody foreigners are sent home
Minimum wage on zero-hours contracts
Welcome to the bright sunny uplands of the post-Brexit future
Including in the UK.
Sure, but you've got to attract them. I've been asked to apply for jobs in both the US and UK in the past year. Ordinarily I would have been quite receptive to a move back home, and have also pondered about the US (and it would have been <1 hour from Yosemite). In the current climate there's no way I'd touch either country with a barge pole unless I had to.
I know many other scientists with similar views.
mol grips, I just applied for jobs. This is scientific research. Sometimes it works through contacts but not in my case. Yes I agree that initially the visa is often tied to the job but after a few years you can probably get PR of some sort. Japan is notoriously hostile for immigration but after 5y you can apply for citizenship.
Of course there's luck, from memory I'd applied for (and failed to get) jobs in Chile, Hawaii and Oregon before the Japanese one came along. You've got to be prepared to go where the wind blows to some extent.
Yes mattjg, it's an incredibly privileged position to be in and it's wonderful that people can (currently) go abroad to work freely within europe. Giving that up that would be a huge cultural and social loss to the country.
it's wonderful that people can (currently) go abroad to work freely within europe. Giving that up that would be a huge cultural and social loss to the country.
Yes I agree.
it would be nice to imagine that we had a country where all could prosper, or at least be fed and housed. (I realise that this is anathema to the raving libertards.)
What the hell does that mean?
I think he's saying that it would be nice if the people driving this whole thing had more honourable ambitions than gleefully creating some Ayan Rand dytopia, where they, along with their rich, tax-avoiding friends sit at the top of the tree, bathed in unimaginable riches, and the common peasantry, who have clearly failed at life, probably due to their own moral failings, knew they're place
^what he said
European Union leaders at a crunch summit dinner are set to rebuff Theresa May’s appeal for trade talks while they seek to publicly talk up her efforts in the Brexit negotiations because they fear that the prime minister’s domestic weakness will leave her unable to make vital concessions on Britain’s divorce bill.The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, will lead European leaders in Brussels on Thursday in seeking to put the best gloss on their refusal to widen the talks, according to diplomatic sources. “There are ways to say it kindly and encouragingly or less kindly and less encouraging,” said one senior EU diplomat.
Is it a surprise?
Which bit? Very little has surprised me except the dogged perseverance of the Brexit lot, many are falling by the wayside but it must take incredible strength from Davis to keep going back to Brussels with nothing to offer - either that or he does actually believe what they said about him on dead ringers.
No suprise at all - just posting it to show the delusions of the leavers
Barnier is now meeting with corbyn and co - a sure sign they know its pointless "negotiating" with a lame duck tory party
got a link or a pic?? Some people might actually explode if they see that!!
Jeremy Corbyn will meet the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, in Brussels on Thursday, as he seeks to exploit Tory division over Brexit and present Labour as a better negotiating team.As well as Barnier, Corbyn will hold bilateral meetings with three EU prime ministers, as Britain’s negotiating partners try to gauge the balance of power over Brexit.
Barnier is now meeting with corbyn and co - a sure sign they know its pointless "negotiating" with a lame duck tory party
Actually it's stunts like this that make me think that the Brexshitters have a point. May is utterly hopeless but she is for better or worse (well, ok then, for worse) our elected representative. You know - democracy and all that.
You know - democracy and all that.
The EU needs to do what is in their best interest, if they feel that the Tories will not survive it's in their interests to speak to the others who are the most likely to win an election if it was called. Sounds like there was a vote of no confidence from Merkel after her meeting with May.
I think the EU lot know how much of a lame duck May is and how likely that there will be a new election before leaving day. I would think this is just to gauge how different Corbyns approach would be
IMO its 50 / 50 he will be prime minister before leaving day
Actually it's stunts like this that make me think that the Brexshitters have a point
Really ? Or sound like they are being far more diligent about the whole thing, there's a good chance May won't be PM before 2019 and there's also a chance that Labour will be in power.
IF the EU agree to a transition there's a very good chance Corbyn could be PM when we actually leave the EU, of course they have to consider what might happen in that scenario.
It's long term planning for every eventuality.
Quite the opposite from the short term internal powerplay that is determining the Tories approach to Brexit.
May is utterly hopeless but she is for better or worse (well, ok then, for worse) our elected representative. You know - democracy and all that.
If you knew there was a fair chance that you'd be negotiating with Keir Starmer in a year's time, you would be crazy not to try to establish a relationship with him ahead of time. If anything, it is a full acknowledgement of the reality of the democratic process.
You know - democracy and all that.
A parliamentary one to be specific.
I am not sure though what that has to do with the rest of your statement? Given the weakness of her position and that it is a democracy and not a dictatorship it would make sense to speak to Labour. No point negotiating with the tories something completely unacceptable to the other parties (bearing in mind the DUP support may run into problems depending on whether the DUP paymaster opinion wins or their need to try and keep NI in reasonable shape).
May is utterly hopeless but she is for better or worse (well, ok then, for worse) our elected representative. You know - democracy and all that.
She's got members of her own cabinet coming out and publically contradicting her position on a constant basis, and she's sat there like a lemon and taking it because everyone knows she hasn't the strength to do anything else!
If you were negotiating a contract with someone and were in broad agreement about the terms, then as you left the meeting their business partner took you to one side and informed you that they disagreed with all that had been arranged so far, and they wouldn't be honouring any of it, what would you think?
Would you think there was much point scheduling another meeting to sort out the details? Or would you go elsewhere?
The EU obviously think there's little point negotiating with May and her 'team', and pretty sensibly they're acknowledging that it could be a very different (and a lot more co-operative) flavour of government if there were an election tomorrow, so why not have a chat with them
The fact that meeting will further undermines May won't be lost on them either, I'm sure
So did anyone listen to the Today programme on Radio 4 this morning?
They had excellent guests, Yanis Varoufakis (former Greek finance minister) and Radek Sikorski (minister of foreign affairs in Donald Tusk’s Polish cabinet) on discussing to what extent the talks are just posturing, how Theresa should negotiate with the EU and what chance she stands:
Here are a few quotes:
Yanis: ..she is never going to succeed in negotiating for the right to negotiate. That right has been denied. Mr Barnier does not have a mandate to negotiate with her. He has a list with boxes and he needs to tick one after the other before any discussion takes place on what Britain wants from the European Union.So my advice would be: cut your losses. File an application for a Norway-style agreement for a period of five years after the expiration of the period of the two year Article 50 process in order to enable your House of Commons to debate properly, without the ticking clock and the gun to your head, the future relationship between the EU and the UK.
Radek: We have experience of negotiating with the EU as a candidate. And Britain is now going to find out what it is like negotiating with the EU as a non-member and it is a very humiliating experience.
..
You have to know what your cards are. Britain is 15% of the European economy. If there is a disruption to 15% of Europe's trade then they can live with that. Whereas for Britain, Europe is 47% of your economy, so the disruption to you will be much greater.
..
Europe exports good to Britain and under WTO terms Europe will continue to face a very low tariff on goods. Britain has a huge deficit on goods, it makes it up with the export of services. And to export services you need to be in the single market and under WTO rules Britain will be excluded from that.Yanis: You cannot overcome reality by the power of will. ... Armageddon is not nigh but Britain is facing long term decline under WTO rules. It's going to become a more parochial, more insular society, .. if it continues along the xenophobic path that goes hand-in-hand with the hard Brexit position
Listen from 2:53:20 for the full interview:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b098bt3f#play
I guess I'd be happier to accept that the EU was acting wisely in the matter of speaking to Corbyn if they didn't have previous in the matter of trying to get rid of uncomfortable leaders like Tsipras, Papandreou and Berlusconi.
Yanis: You cannot overcome reality by the power of will.
Great quote.
^ +1 that's long been my main complaint over the way brexit is discussed by politicians. There are real physical logistical issues to sort out, bluster and soundbites doesn't do that.
Yes. They say 'oh yeah we can sort it out' except that now, thousands of people have just been given a shitload of extra work for the next few years. What were their jobs previously that they are no longer doing cos they're busy with this shit?
The government have ignored the greeks experience and advice from Varoufakis so far, maybe theyll start now, but I doubt it
Itll just be more empty soundbites & in-fighting from the government
My colleague just showed me Mays email to her
shes less than impressed that she has to go through another round of applications so she can stay here!
Only be an extra £80 quid this time though
(also wasnt this basically what Starmer suggested ages ago!)
The time for talking is long gone if you don't want a disaster.
Simple issues, where are the actions they need to be done to enable Dover to function post Brexit? Compulsory purchase of land to expand facilities, the tenders for new systems, the job adverts for new staff?
To get everything up and running for March 2019, it simply isn't going to happen. Not a matter of wishful thinking and it'll be ok, there simply isn't the time, let alone money, to implement what needs to be done.
Well qualified people can work anywhere
#this btw is utter nonsense. I am well qualified. I don'y think there is anywhere else I could work because of language issues. English speaking countries don't need nurses with my experience
To get everything up and running for March 2019, it simply isn't going to happen. Not a matter of wishful thinking and it'll be ok, there simply isn't the time, let alone money, to implement what needs to be done.
Stop being such a downer on things, there are unicorns just waiting to be let in
People like mrmo talking the country down and stubbornly looking facts in the face are ruining Brexit.
People like mrmo talking the country down and stubbornly looking facts in the face are ruining Brexit.
I humbly beg your mercy for my traitorous thoughts, double plus good.
3 hail Borris and pray to Govey
Gover demands self-flagellation , nothing else will satisfy him & Sarah Vine
To get everything up and running for March 2019, it simply isn't going to happen.
I've got a friend who is quite senior in a major government dept that is going to be hugely impacted by Brexit.
They have recruited and are continuing to recruit more staff to develop the IT systems etc to try to replicate the present integrated EU systems. this is obviously going to cost billions. However, due to the present political limbo, rudderless drifting and total lack of direction or leadership, they're all sat around twiddling their thumbs as they've absolutely no idea what it is they're actually meant to be doing
Still.... I'm sure it'll all be fine.....
meanwhile in the Department for a Full Understanding of Continuing Kicking Off with the EU
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So as expected Merkel throws May a bone in the form of some kind words ( My guess is thats what May pleaded for in the phone call to Merkel) but if you look deeper nothing has changed. Still no progress on the 3 key issues especially the NI border which attracted some very harsh words from the republic.
this will allow the right wing press to lead tomorrow with " Breakthru" and" victory is close" tomorrow but the reality is the only thing that is closer is the cliff edge
they're giving her a little puff to help her appear a little less weak at home. instability in the UK benefits nobody and I suspect they'd still have us stay.
Looks like Jezza has got an "intervention" underway with Barnier....
More empty words from May and still no progress.
Merkel, Macron and Tusk being nothing more than polite; 'amused tolerance' will give way to publicly expressed frustration from national leaders.
What a mess.
The 2 year "transition/implementation" - if I was a business looking to relocate out of the UK I'd want that as it means I can do it orderly not in a flap.
It'll be dressed up as a victory for May but it's an EU win.
She'll have to bend over on the bill first though. Likely she will.
We're shafted.
I'm 50, established and lucky enough to live in a nice part of the country too, I can ride it out, but for the young going through college now this is a disaster. Legs cut from beneath the economy simultaneously with their rights to freely live and work in the world's biggest FTA being removed, and they didn't even get to vote on it. Perfect storm.
They should be furious.
Furious doesn't even begin to describe my 13 year old daughters attitude to it. She feels like the boomers have sold the young down the river
She said that retired people shouldn't have been allowed to vote, as they won't be around to live with the long term economic damage this whole debacle will cause, and the voting age should have been lowered to 16.
I agree with her completely
Having said that, so do my 70 year old mum and dad, who are also appalled by the selfish short-sightedness of their peers
This decision should have been in the hands of the economically active who are going to have to pick up the (huge) tab for the whole sorry mess
My 11 year old was in tears as he’s already decided he wants to work in France.
If it doesn’t include freedom of movement of labour we should send our government back to renegotiate.
i'm not sure that only allowing people who have a job to vote is the answer, however much we want the right result.
there are a lot of disaffected in this country. many of them voted the way they did to register their protest at the shitness of it all. can't blame them TBH.
it's a good job no one thinks we're a laughing stock yet .... oops, cat has now left the bag, jumped on the Eurostar and got the f*** out of it.
Being unhappy about the status quo is fine but voting for this as a method of addressing this is daft,there are a lot of disaffected in this country. many of them voted the way they did to register their protest at the shitness of it all. can't blame them TBH.
It was not a protest vote about the establishment in the UK and how they look after the 1% it was a vote that gave them more power to do this by voting for the type of people/agenda who only care about the 1 % so I personally I can blame them and those who manipulated them
Its not a coincidence that the main proponents are right wing free marketer de- regulation types [ fewer rights for workers more freedom for business] is it? think the likes of Redwood. fox, farage or Gove will help redress this is stupid.
Comfort you 11 yr old - a brick wall is not coming done. Parents are there to provide perspective and experience 😉
Excellent (IMHO) article in yesterday’s FT from DeAnne Julius on the reasons why a no deal Brexit would suit the EU
Comfort you 11 yr old - a brick wall is not coming done.
You'll have to back that up. The wall might have doors in it, but to whom are those doors going to be open? Very important point. We won't have the *right* to work aboad; we'll just have to get lucky and if we do, we'll only be there on condition.
there are a lot of disaffected in this country. many of them voted the way they did to register their protest at the shitness of it all. can't blame them TBH.
why not?
nothing I ever did damaged those people.
Back it up he just went for an easy troll of criticising people as parents and a simplistic Faux truth he can defend in further trolls
Everyone knows we have gone from a right to a possibility - though we can only guess at what this means for the future.
Why feed him? Why expect anything except further trolling patronising - though he might just answer, with the politeness he demands in others but rarely delivers on himself, now to prove me wrong 😉
Sounds like treasury still thinks no deal Brexit will us is over
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/921068161692205057
(Assuming this is me report not the pre-registration one?)
Bloody remoaners!
[quote=mattjg ]
why not?
nothing I ever did damaged those people.
if you have nothing, what have you got to lose by voting for something different.
the people who care about brexit are the people in the middle who have the most to lose.
i include myself in that.
I have worked in seven countries in my life - only two are in the EU (UK and France). Little hurdles are not brick walls
I am just employing and Italian and a ****stani. Yes the latter was a bit of a balls ache with the visa and cost me a month but it’s still happening
No need to exaggerate the threats
if you have nothing, what have you got to lose by voting for something different.
they've got plenty to lose, my friend from Brazil would gladly enlighten them on "it can't get any worse than this".
and they've also denied their kids opportunities as they have ours.
I sometimes hire contract programmers online. they earn a good multiple of the minimum wage. the barrier to entry is low to get a tryout - good communications skills, the nouse to be a self starter and train yourself a bit, access to a cheapish computer. anyone that paid attention at school can do it.
I don't get any applications from the "depressed" parts of the UK. Where's all the desperation for work?
I both accept what THM says but know it’s going to be harder. And as THM has said we, don’t know how it’s going to end.
And for the record seeing as how THM’s comment was in response to mine, I didn’t feel it to be an unreasonable comment, just one that I only partially agree with.