Forum menu
Yep and lovely to see all those benefit scrounging pensioners getting their rise, hope that will apply to all the public sector workers.
He needs to be talking up the UK more, the bloody traitor!
Maybe put a tiger in the tank, and let the lion roar
teamhurtmore - Member
Inflation at 3% mind the rally in the £ and get ready for first (small) increase in UK rates next month!
Poor engineer and all, but given much of the inflation was caused by the fall in the pound, doesn’t a rally in the pound ease inflationary concerns a little?
That said, interest rates ain’t going down now are they.
When inflation goes up what you can afford goes down and the value of debt goes up. It's a win win for the banks.
Yep and lovely to see all those benefit scrounging pensioners getting their rise, hope that will apply to all the public sector workers.
but those on other benefits wont be, including the record numbers on in-work benefits
Tories & their Brexit doing a remarkable job of making sure work doesnt pay
love me a bit of Gareth Cheeseman. Brexit Bonus!
thats very interesting
can we shuffle around those squares for our bespoke deal?
[img] 
[/img]
So red is awesome? Where is the white and blue?
A Red, red and red Brexit doesn't have quite the same ring.
I believe the blue and white stuff, such as magical pixie border controls in Ireland, having a fabulous trade deal with the commonwealth, and removing the need for food imports by growing more, is on the back in the section marked: 'Fantasy options'
Double points if you know who’s it is. Without looking.
It was Barnier's, photo taken of it at Belgian parliament
Worst Tetris game ever.
Pity the link actually showed that Mefty. It wasn’t mean to.
However have your 5 unicorn points anyway.
How many points to get int he express unicorn queue?
Anyway I'm waiting for someone to explain the long words to me
value of debt goes up
Bond (gilt) prices go down. The government pays more for its borrowing when it issues new debt and the banks often lose as the value of existing bonds falls (it depends how the bank is positionned on gilts).
quote from Silvana Tenreyro on why she brings something unique to the MPC
"I grew up in a developing country, subject to many crises"....
Is Argentina really the way forward....
Saw photo on Twitter last night, someone must have retweeted it as Fleming isn't on any of the lists I follow.
Worst Tetris game ever.
You are not the first to say that
Sorry Ed should have clarified I meant personal - as in it's bad news for a lot of people - you need more money to pay your debts and for food etc.
Bond (gilt) prices go down. The government pays more for its borrowing when it issues new debt and the banks often lose as the value of existing bonds falls (it depends how the bank is positionned on gilts).
Easier to make profits when interest rates are higher, I would be very surprised if any banks weren't positioned for rise as it has been widely telegraphed. What banks really want is an upward sloping yield curve as their natural position is to be short on the liability side and long on the asset side.
Banks need to cover maturing liabilities so have easily liquidated assets on hand to do this, usually bonds so they'll take a hit in the short term whatever the yield curve looks like. Raising interest rates usually flattens the yield curve in the short short term.
As for it being esier to make profits when interest rates are higher, that only applies to small hikes, with bigger hikes the level of default also increases. Stock markets suffer too and even if banks aren't invested directly they hold derivatives. Higher interest rates hits just about every form of intestment negatively - it's perhaps the time to invest in a proper hedge fund, i.e. one that shorts the most vulnerable markets.
When things get to hyper inflation levels then even hyper interest levels do nothing for bank profitability, they fail, even central banks leaving countries with no currency.
THM blithers about the Euro having failed, fact is the Pound is much more likely to fail as investors lose confidence, ditcht gilts, the BOE pays a fortune for its money and the Greek sitiuation starts to look enviable.
IGM kimbers
The sheets shows very clearly that there are no off the shelf solutions and that we need a unique FTA. You know, red, white....
Yield curve matters more for fixed rate regimes, level of short term rates for variable rate regimes.
THM blithers
Ed, you have made my lunch...you then post that the UK is going to pay a fortune for its debt ( 😯 ) and that we will view Greece with envy ( 😯 😯 )
Not even your tag pal will be able to beat that, but he wi ll no doubt try!! Awesome.
Arguably THM, that chart shows I think 7 (certainly 3) off the peg solutions. 😉
And of course just like a suit, alterations can, and normally should, be made to the off the peg item.
However I find it more interesting that Barnier is carrying it. You could read things into that.
I’m not surprised. I posted a similar summary three times earlier in the thread. The level of understanding of the core issues here is very very poor including among many politicians
When they talk about being in the single market etc or hard and soft you know they are in trouble. As my link noted at the start, the key thing is to distinguish between membership of and access to the SM If people don’t get this, then they are lost from the start
What the charts show is various ways of maintaining access to the single market - the subject we should be negotiating but which the EU want to avoid. From that everything else follows, not the other way around. I may have mentioned that before 😉
Greece 😉 still giggling
What the charts show is various ways of maintaining access to the single market - the subject we should be negotiating but which the EU want to avoid. From that everything else follows, not the other way around. I may have mentioned that before
You keep going on about that but almost exclusively miss any questions on the NI/Eire border or our land border with the EU and how the pixies and magic IT solution will satisfy anybody.
No I have been clear. There is no easy answer. That’s why the EU have this as a precondition. They are not daft. Just devious.
The THM solution to NI: Shrug, "let's not talk about that now", "But Jeremy says..", "The EU should be discussing trade", another shrug.
OK so no easy answer but it really needs answering, right now, in fact before declaring A50 would have been good. I'd call it a really important precondition of anything else due the the amount of trouble getting it wrong will cause - it's not on the list of sort it out laters is it.
The only daft people in the room are the brexit voters and the tories who think they can survive it.
There is no easy answer. That’s why the EU have this as a precondition. They are not daft. Just devious.
Or maybe, despite your venom, it's precisely because it's the most difficult part that it's up front. You can't just close your eyes and hope it goes away. Better off dealing with it at the start than it bringing the whole deck of cards down at the end.
[url= https://www.ft.com/content/f84dbae4-e713-11e6-967b-c88452263daf?mhq5j=e7 ]This is a good article from the FT which deals with the relationship between banks profitability and rising interest rates.[/url]
Most of the things you mention are discussed in it, but the downsides are generally outweighed by the upsides.
When things get to hyper inflation levels then even hyper interest levels do nothing for bank profitability, they fail, even central banks leaving countries with no currency.
Do you honestly think 3% is hyper inflation?
THM blithers about the Euro having failed, fact is the Pound is much more likely to fail as investors lose confidence, ditcht gilts, the BOE pays a fortune for its money and the Greek sitiuation starts to look enviable.
UK's great advantage is we have one of the longest maturity profiles for government debt of any major nation, whilst we have to refinance continuously like everyone else, there is no crunch moment like there was for Greece.
So, effectively, it's like when Van Halen inserted a clause in their rider to demand that the blue M&M's were removed?
The Northern Ireland border is effectively the non-removed Blue M&M's?
binners - MemberSo, effectively, it's like when Van Halen inserted a clause in their rider to demand that the blue M&M's were removed?
Kind of, except that in this case, it may be impossible to remove blue m&ms.
Some of the M&M's will change when you look away, others will ask their backers what colour to be today and then Pixies and Unicorns
The THM solution to NI: Shrug, "let's not talk about that now", "But Jeremy says..", "The EU should be discussing trade", another shrug.
Well to be fair the extent of the problem will be partially defined by where we get on trade hence it seems pretty silly to expect it to be totally solved before those discussions are even started.
Indeed start at the starting point. Tends to help.
Mike are you clear on what A50 is?
So which is the plucky Brit negotiator and which is the evil EU guy?
Well to be fair the extent of the problem will be partially defined by where we get on trade
Which bit, it covers a lot more than that, as said above though how can you negotiate on trade if the issue could bring the lot down - especially as Ireland can have a parliamentary vote at the end of it.
Settlement of accounts, treatment of people and NI border are the fundamentals that will underpin what goes forward. If the UK don't like it Tough Shit! You Won Fix It.
Better still - talking of not going back on things the UK agreed to this.
So at which point does May explain the situation to the people in something other than a soundbite fest?
teamhurtmore - Member
Mike are you clear on what A50 is?
trying to be patronising again?
Care to elaborate which post you have just bothered to read?
Was it about working out things like a decent position on NI starting a 24 months countdown to a cliff edge? It's not a hard thing to start - perhaps by reading all the positions and trying to come up with a solution that would work, when you have gone through a hundred or so that don't involve waving hands and saying technology then decide you might be prepared to start negotiating.
No it’s a simple question. It’s not clear from your answers
Clear or just not in agreement with you, carry on with the tory bs there really the sort it out later approach to the ni border sums it up. Not my problem but best stick it to them they asked for it. The call for patriotism when looking at a very one sided table where the UK holds all the good cards. Blind faith that one referendum must be respected but all other democracy ignored.
Best get back to your prep meetings, you factoring in a hard brexit?
Which bit, it covers a lot more than that, as said above though how can you negotiate on trade if the issue could bring the lot down - especially as Ireland can have a parliamentary vote at the end of it.
Settlement of accounts, treatment of people and NI border are the fundamentals that will underpin what goes forward. If the UK don't like it Tough Shit! You Won Fix It.
Better still - talking of not going back on things the UK agreed to this.So at which point does May explain the situation to the people in something other than a soundbite fest?
Exactly. Obviously it is also in the interest of an ongoing EU member state (ROI) to have a more porous border with the north. But the bulk of the responsibility for working out a solution, and deciding whether to make the necessary compromises to achieve it (freedom of movement issues) lies with the UK.
The principle is simple - you broke it, you own it.
The UK govt has offered some kind of back of the envelope fudge on the practicalities of somehow operating an open border between two nations who do not belong to the same trading bloc, yet somehow that border not ending up the focus for unregulated movement of goods and people.
For all the bollox about 'taking back control of our borders' which won leavers votes in England, the EU is trying to ram home what that actually means in practice.
British govt wants pudding before it's eaten its vegetables. Chances are it may be getting down from the table without it.
I’ll take that as a no
Plans in place for all scenarios. Hoping for bespoke 😉 deal prepared for the worst
Since the UK govt is supposedly prepared to walk away with a hard brexit it's not unreasonable to ask them what the NI border looks like in this scenario.
And indeed it's not unreasonable to ask them what they expect the NI border to look like under their preferred scenario of a "red white and blue bespoke brexit". It's still a border: people, goods and services can either pass over it without hindrance or they cannot. What is the UK govt's aim? Is it going to rip up the GFA or not?
[sits back and awaits nitpicking over the term "hard brexit" and absolutely no attempt to address the point]
No they and the Eu are clear on that if not on the “how”
Looking at the systems required to make the Norway-Sweden border work, even for a border without significant people smuggling and no armed conflict (for a few hundred years, anyway), would suggest that if the UK is going to do likewise they'd better get their skates on.
Otherwise, faeries it is.
That's being "clear" in the sense of being clear that we want to have cake and eat cake.
I.e. vague platitudes and sound bites (and mutually incompatible to boot), not an actual description of how the border will function.
It seems to me the whole thing is being dragged out for as long as possible until the general consensus is that it's not worth doing and we (our glorious leaders) can back out blaming whoever was last in power at which point the EU will then say "ok fair enough, we didn't want to to leave anyway so we won't hold you to Article 50" and we'll all go back to where we were.
Obviously by then we (most of us prols) will be even worse off than before but that won't matter because it'll be [i]our[/i] fault.
This is a complete farce.
Plans in place for all scenarios.
“All” is a surprisingly large word my old son. Really ? All? 8)
“All” is a surprisingly large word my old son. Really ? All?
Compulsory purchase orders already in for 10,000 acres of lorry park at Felixstowe, Hull and Dover.
Actually, no, but they better get a move unless unless they were actually thinking of just using the A14, M62 and M2 in 18 month's time.
For us, yes. All in place. Just need to know what outcome is and therefore which button to press
THM - seeing as how you were asking if anyone knew what A50 was, I thought I’d point you at this.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_50_of_the_Treaty_on_European_Union
Happy to help.
(Ducks quickly)
Just need to know what outcome is and therefore which button to press
Live from the NI/ROI border crossing
[img] 
[/img]
On that “all” again, and just out of interest, and indeed I understand if you can’t answer, does that include the scenario where Brexit for whatever reason doesn’t happen?
[quote=Speeder ]
This is a complete farce.
surely this is something both sides can agree on...
Yes. But I am only talking about/working with one industry, not whole UK
No Brexshit and everyone is laughing but we do not expect that so are preparing accordingly
BBC seem to be promoting the OECD report quite strongly...
Sorry THM, had to check. So you have prepared for all the options you expect then.
Keep your expectations low and you’ll be fine. 😉
Joking aside, I think you are in financial services of some sort. My impression is that that should be a relatively easy transition compared to some industries. Could be wrong. I’m doing a lot of work with motor manufacturers and the EV industry at the moment and I think the UK is potentially in a really bad place there as there a whole load of new standards needed there. The EU are probably going to set the standards, we will have little say and then we get to accept them or not have workable cars.
True. True
And I accept the level of preparation is unusual
We’re doing what we can, but in the electricity game it’s all about interconnection and interdependence - at the macro level.
And at the micro level, it’s responding to physical economic development - new factories, homes, shopping centres etc, and growth in existing ones.
Brexit ain’t good for the electricity industry - you can probably expect energy prices to rise medium to long term as a result - over inflation.
I am too simple to understand a complex business like yours. I'm not sure of the direct link to energy prices but can see the indirect one via £
The standards issue is v real and I commented on that pre vote. As you say the EU will still set standards that exporters will have to abide with, but we will have no control. Plenty of scope for wasteful duplication and FA to do with taking back control 😉 quite the opposite!!
Frankly I am more concerned about other regulatory changes rather than Brexshit in my world. We can cope with Brexshit quite easily, it's the uncertainty and delays that kill.
So from glancing thru this thread it appear for some the fantasy of a bespoke deal is still being touted. Alternative reality or what. There is no time notr expertise available to hammer out a bespoke deal.
May and Davies have been roundly rebuffed in their attempts to get the EU to bow down to them. Junkers and Barnier are trying to help them but they won't help themselves
Zero progress on the 3 key issues means nothing else will be discussed. Davies fantasy that the trade talks must be done in parallel is exposed again. 27 EU countries leaders have said this will not happen. He spouts the "german car manufacturers need us" line again despite it being obviously of no leverage. Boris with his " time for the EU to get serious " is such obvious nonsense. Its time for May and the three amigos to get serious and to accept that cake and eat it does not work
The EU hold all the cards. May and the three amigos are being laughed at because they keep on spouting such nonsense.
Hmmm this ROI/NI border thing could be a bit of bugger then.
So options are:
1.Hard border thru the middle.
2.Sea border around it,
3.Soft IT border.
4.Faerie border
(No offence meant for any ROI/NI stwers just overly simplifying to get my head around it.)
I suppose movement of people isn’t the issue (as this happens now) and it’s all about the smuggling into the EU goods from the U.K. and currently Faerie border seems the to go option.
So assuming we settle the bill ,agree rights of eu citizens in U.K. and U.K. citizens in EU then this may be the tricky bit assuming we the thumbs up from the remaining eu countries.
Ignoring euroatom and the university stuff an the fishing/farming stuff and the great repeel bill
Fifteen months down the line we’ve got down to candle lit dinners with Mrs May and Co 🙂
Just seems too many things have to happen to make this work, if we had allowed 10 years then yes but current timescales and the ticking clock.
Movement of people is also an issue across the eire / NI border. an open border between and EU and NOn eu state - total non starter for the EU
DUP will not accept a sea border, a hard land border rips up the good friday agreement
There is no solution to this that I can see or that anyone has proposed hence may and co want to put this aside for now.
And the more truthful account:
1. Given that none of the exiting arrangements cover the Uk/ EU respective requirements any deal has to be bespoke by definition. See Juncker’s crib sheet ^
2. Both sides recognise that this will require a transition of at least 2 years, probably more. Only the terms of the transition need finalising and we have made obvious compromises there - hence the annoyance of the hard line Brexshiteers
3. Concessions have been made on both sides - bar the Germans worried about the cash - and attention will turn trade soon albeit belatedly. In the meantime Merkel is tied up with her own domestic difficulties
4. The need to move on was already acknowdged by Barnier and others
5. Neither side hold all the cards. They both need to avoid a lose:lose
6. The real negotions are not what is covered by the media and the real work is away from the spotlights. Insiders now that progress is happening albeit at a pace that is too slow for all
7. Remoaners will keep spouting nonsense and like the poll tax will still be banging on about it in 20’years time when RoW has moved on
Apart from that.....
THM at what point did you realise?
Was it over your museli one day that actually you decided that Poles make you uneasy.
Did you one day no notice you were wearing full tweed and a Barbour jacket
Or you came out of the newsagents with a copy of the Express instead of the FT?
Was it a slow dawning or a sudden revelation.....
..... That you were indeed a KIPPER !!! 😆
You can't keep shouting 'remoaners' to distract from the series of unforced errors that the Tories have made of Brexit
While im sure that progress is being made by the civil service the right wing so despise, at a ministerial level it's barely held together chaos, every day a Brexiteer briefs against a saner Tory, (eg Rudd saying no deal inconceivable & being abused on social media Vs Davis saying it's our plan B)
Transition is essential not just for economic sense but as breathing space for the Tories to figure out what the actual **** they want out of Brexit
There is no progress being made. None. Zero.
May got some kind words and thats it.
I have not said they are doing a good job. I am merely correcting the BS being spouted. See x post for illustration.
You forget that I am in a v small minority of people who supports full FOM too. Keep the Poles coming. My immediate team has Brits, Greeks, Chinese, a Columbian and a Pole so FOM suits me well. My wider team is multi-everything.
I do have a 30 yr old Barbour true, but no trashy tabloid. Only broadsheets here. Sorry.
No deal is nothing more than a mechanism to speed up negotiations. Neither side will let it happen. Don’t confuse posturing with intent
Neither side is doing well. We should be well into trade by now. But we know why that is not the case. As predicted.
It'll only progress when May opens up the cheque book, she's too weak to do that.
I reckon she made a deal with Merkel to do it when she's about to quit and can carry the flak she'll get from the swivel eyed, (that's why the Germans started slating Johnson)
If May is planning an exit by Xmas then maybe she can splash that cash in time for the Euro Council meeting then and maybe we can belatedly start on security & a transition deal, maybe, if it's not too late.
Or the government could keep gnawing at it's festering wounds so we end up the a mostly hard Brexit with a bit a few concessions from the EU out of pity, (if they can get past their anger that we've fuct them all over)
If the EU also end up within a hard Brexshit they will have @@@@ed themselves too. Don't forget that!!
The only way "transition" makes sense is if it is used as a synonym for "staying in the EU". Otherwise all the same problems apply to the transition, as apply to leaving.
No talks on transition before the 3 conditions are met, no transition possible until the 3 conditions are met.
Indeed, can you imagine how hard Johnson and co would be hated over there!
The EU would be in trouble no doubt, a new impetus to finalize those trade deals and figure out who's going to lend all the cash.
Would also accelerate the EU army programme to of imagine.
May & Davis having wasted soon much time with election, posturing to the RW press & general incompetence, transition needed more than ever
Meanwhile peoplele like redwood are building momentum for the hard Brexit they maniacally crave..
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4686254/real-on-no-deal-uk-will-have-bags-trade-options-brexit/
It may be laughable madness, but people are lapping this crap up
Don't panic it will happen.
I'm not sure of the direct link to energy prices but can see the indirect one via £
It’s more a whole series of indirect ones, from the staff we employ (UK engineers of any quality are increasing hard to find - Europeans were generally an easy cultural fit), to the technology we use (the big stuff is created elsewhere, the smaller stuff manufactured elsewhere), to the fact that greater interconnection makes energy cheaper (where do you think we were going to link to), to standards for new applications increasingly become by pan-European (and we won’t be able to influence them the way we once did).
All these things are minor at the edges, but additive in their effect.
We were regarded as amongst the leaders in Europe and probably the world, and as a result had a lot of influence. We’ve given that up I think.
Look on the bright side, ir you/we really are the best in the world then it remains in EUs interest for that to be maintained. Law of comparative advantage
Why would they seek to harm yiu?
We were regarded as amongst the leaders in Europe and probably the world, and as a result had a lot of influence. We’ve given that up I think
Certainly in scientific research we are leaders at least in Europe, and Europe very much needs us. Can't see that theyd want to lose our collaboration.
As you say though effects are additive, uncertainty and jingoism have had an effect on some EU colleagues, while highly skilled, salaries in science aren't great so their positions feel more vulnerable than better paid.
So some already leaving, especially the good ones who can find work easier in Europe & elsewhere.
Loss of access to EU grants already happening (not big and long term so effects not yet felt), no new money from gov.
Also consistently weak £ has hit budgets.
Just feels like a steady eroding of our position
teamhurtmore - Member
Look on the bright side, ir you/we really are the best in the world then it remains in EUs interest for that to be maintained. Law of comparative advantage
Classic brexit thinking there, that be why they are moving their institutions, moving the ideas and will assume the good people will follow where they lead the cash. It's in the interests of the eu to host the best in the world.
If the EU also end up within a hard Brexshit they will have @@@@ed themselves too. Don't forget that!!
The point most of us have been at pains to point out is that whilst Brexit is certainly less than ideal for the EU, it's orders of magnitude more problematic for the UK.
zokes, you just need to look on the bright side! Why hadn't I thought of that? It's brilliant! Just look on the bright side, and everything is much better!
Which side of a turd is the bright side?