[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

Now, as many as 53% of the British public back a second referendum, according to a poll by Survation for the Mail on Sunday.

its not untrue it depends on where you look if you must lecture us on truth, it would be beneficial if what you said was actually true.

Likewise whilst they may support your "getting on with it view" they also oppose the hard Brexit option they are getting on with. Again you can argue it either way.

Junkyard - and a clear majority now for a remain vote in a second referendum according to the polls

It is perfectly reasonable on big constitutional issues for the arguments to be laid before the people so they can make their own judgement based on their life experience.

Because there is not a significant body of opinion calling for one.

@TJ Again it depends where you look the majority seem to both want to not have another even though they would vote to remain though the % wax and wane on both issues. I dont think there can be any debate that they do not support a hard brexit *

That said its not a definitive picture, we could all cherry pick if we wish but deep down I think none of want to claim surveys, given their recent results, are definitive proof of the view of the populus.

Its just arguing for the sake of it and accusing folk of lying when they only state one viewpoint

* Given 48% are against it anyway no view will get a majority but i am not even sure the majority of leavers want this and it was certainly not what they were arguing for pre referrenduum

Interesting article on who might be pulling the strings behind Hard Brexit:

[url= https://tompride.wordpress.com/2017/10/13/how-theresa-may-is-being-shepherded-to-a-hard-brexit-by-a-multibillionaire-dubai-based-new-zealand-fund-manager/ ]Legatum[/url]

In its mission statement, Legatum openly admits its aim is to influence the British government on Brexit, and what it calls “other stakeholders”:

But why would a New Zealand private capital investment firm based in Dubai be so interested in a hard Brexit anyway?

Fortunately, the (far) right-wing US pressure group Heritage Foundation helpfully explains it all (to its readers in the US anyway):

Legatum Institute’s Special Trade Commission Advances Brexit Policies Designed to Promote Economic Freedom and Prosperity – for the United Kingdom and (Eventually) the World

According to the Heritage Foundation, Legatum is campaigning to set up a bilateral free trade agreement between the UK and the United States, which will “liberalise” UK regulations on the environment and workplace:

Yeah~ hard crash out, sidle up to America with all it entails. There’s absolutely no intention of a deal with the EU.

If people use the wail as a source it's always good to check the underlying data as its v unlikely a wail headline will be true.

Sure enough - wrong (unless sur action haven't published the new poll). They show that the majorly remain in favour of a soft Brexshit and that while there is a majority in favour of voting on the final deal, there is not support for another referendum. They also believe that our barely competent leader is much better placed than the leader of the opposition to lead us through the process - what a sorry state of affairs.

Still who needs facts or cares what people actually think?

.....they also said:

Voters disagree with Theresa May’s mantra “no deal is better than a bad deal”, with 58% against leaving the EU without a deal,

Nice and fresh

No deal better than bad deal 74%
Any deal better 26%

[url= http://interactive.news.sky.com/SMSLXIII_NODEAL_111017_FP.pdf ]Tabs here[/url]

Most people don't understand "no deal is better than a bad deal".

It does sound quite good though.

"No deal is better than a bad deal" is meaningless- because yes, you absolutely could have a bad deal that's worse than no deal. The question is how likely that is. So hypothetically, yes, no deal could be better than a bad deal. Practically, it probably won't be.

I wonder why the Sky and Survation polls tell a different story from one another...?

Nationally representative sample of 1,023 Sky customers interviewed by SMS 11 October 2017. Data weighted to the profile of the population.

Given that by definition they are Sky customers I doubt the above statement is actually possible.
How do they account for the part of the population that thinks Sky is a work of evil and will not buy Sky products? A small but real part of the population that you cannot weight Sky customers to represent.

Am I correct in thinking a simple way to understand a hard Brexit is that it would be the equivalent of creating a border with passport controls and huge amounts of paperwork for moving goods and services between anything south of Lancashire, Derbyshire and Yorkshire and the rest of the country? I suppose there is also a difference between a free trade agreement like that between the eu and Canada and a single market. I am thinking free trade equals very low or nonexistent tariffs but with paperwork and a single market is like trading in the same country.

I wouldn't have particularly said there was a significant enough body of opinion calling for a referendum on EU membership. Propose a referendum on politician's wages, then you'd see a significant body with a strong opinion.

Consevatives had a manifesto pledge to hold a EU referendum in 2015, the LibDems did in 2010, and Labour has one with regarded to the EU constitution in 2005. Then there is UKIP winning the most seats in the European Parliament elections. That is more than sufficient, there is no other issue that I can think of that has that "traction".

referendum on legality of homosexuality or a referendum on whether muslims should be allowed in the country.

In would bet you my house the UK would vote yes to to the first and no to the second.

That is more than sufficient, there is no other issue that I can think of that has that "traction

Meh, every manifesto has a pledge to fix the housing crisis, save the NHS and reform education.
Maybot had dropped most of her manifesto pledges b4 she got to the election last time!

The real driving force has been the press, pushing their EU myths for decades....

Consevatives had a manifesto pledge to hold a EU referendum in 2015, the LibDems did in 2010, and Labour has one with regarded to the EU constitution in 2005. Then there is UKIP winning the most seats in the European Parliament elections. That is more than sufficient, there is no other issue that I can think of that has that "traction".

The real driving force has been the press, pushing their EU myths for decades.

Yes - Murdoch and the Barclay brothers hate the EU and have waged a 20 year relentless propaganda campaign against it. that is the only driving force for leavng the EU

It gets better, so now the fact that governments promise something (leaving aside the result) doesn't matter.

This story has some fantastic twists...

Since when have manifestos been an accurate reflection of public opinion?

The fact it is included in a manifesto evidences that there is a significant body of opinion, the referendum is then used to gauge public opinion. Whilst some people get grumpy about MPs salaries, there is little evidence of a widespread campaign, personally I think they are not overpaid.

The fact it is included in a manifesto evidences that there is a significant body of opinion

Underpaid. Hence the quality we have

It gets better, so now the fact that governments promise something (leaving aside the result) doesn't matter.

It absolutely does not.

Send my regards to the fairies at the bottom of your garden.

Going to have to agree with Mefty there.

You don’t put lies in a manifesto unless you think they’ll appeal to someone - quite a lot of someones.

Send my regards to the fairies at the bottom of your garden.

They're all on secondment working with the rest of the fae folk on the Tories NI border 😉

comedy gold in the delusions of the righties here.

You don’t put lies in a manifesto unless you think they’ll appeal to someone - quite a lot of someones.

At the risk of sounding cynical you put things in that will appear to certain sets without alienating others. Preferably things that you can justify not delivering on and that people who oppose it don't imagine ever coming to pass so can be safely ignored unless there is political capital to be made from it.

A manifesto is what politicians want you to believe they want to do. Suggesting that a manifesto reflects majority public desires is....... hilarious.

. Suggesting that a manifesto reflects majority public desires is....... hilarious.

Well that's all good because no one has.

Well that's all good because no one has.

[img] [/img]

Still all going swimmingly?

A powerful cross-party group of MPs is drawing up plans that would make it impossible for Theresa May to allow Britain to crash out of the EU without a deal in 2019. The move comes amid new warnings that a “cliff-edge” Brexit would be catastrophic for the economy.

Adam Marshall, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the business community “wants a transition agreed in principle and trade talks under way by the end of 2017. If there is not that clarity we will start to see the activation of contingency plans and likely significant impact on business investment.”

Yesterday, in a sign of growing desperation, it emerged that the Brexit secretary, David Davis, will travel to Brussels on Monday for unscheduled talks after the EU ruled that insufficient progress had been made for the two sides to begin future trade talks with Britain.

And the delusions of the levers made clear.

Around the same time,( 16 months ago) international trade secretary Liam Fox predicted that a free-trade deal with the EU, giving us continued access to EU markets after Brexit, “should be one of the easiest in human history”. His fellow Tory, the hardline Eurosceptic John Redwood, also saw no problems in realising this great reconfiguration of British interests around the world. “Getting out of the EU can be quick and easy – the UK holds most of the cards in any negotiation,” he declared.

THM and his mates need feeding up from the look of this.

[url= https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4445/37673890962_c4fc7db8b5_b.jp g" target="_blank">https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4445/37673890962_c4fc7db8b5_b.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://flic.kr/p/Zp7xfb ]DMIsKW0W4AAxmp3[/url] by [url= https://www.flickr.com/photos/151687774@N05/ ]james anderson[/url], on Flickr

Sorry for making this about Scotland when the wider economy is a concern, but this should be of concern to us all:

[url= http://www.thenational.scot/news/15596318.Tories_urged_to_publish_UK_s_secret_report_on_extent_of_Brexit_damage_to_Scotland/?ref=rl&lp=4 ]Tories urged to publish UK's secret report on extent of Brexit damage to Scotland[/url]

The article says:

“David Davis’s Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) yesterday said they couldn’t even confirm or deny such a paper existed, because it could impact “the national and regional economies by precipitating preemptive and reactionary assumptions from stakeholders in the respective regions”.

But Davis’ comments don’t stand scrutiny. If we assume that the position of the government is pro-Brexit, then logically, any report that shows that Brexit will have a positive effect would be publicised as it would strengthen the negotiating hand. Ergo, we can assume that the report does not show benefit for the North.

Makes sense?

Also:

“Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, has already confirmed the existence of the analysis during a committee hearing on Wednesday.” Perhaps one of the reasons he’s being got rid of- too honest.

Plenty of nourishment thanks - especially with the amusing amuse-bouches ^

Meanwhile business/private sector simply continues to get on with things. The politicians can posture as much as they like, they merely react. In contrast, business gets on with life proactively.

We are, others should do the same.

cody - all too true. Its obvious that they don't want to publish this stuff because it contradicts what they have been saying

“David Davis’s Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) yesterday said they couldn’t even confirm or deny such a paper existed, because it could impact “the national and regional economies by precipitating preemptive and reactionary assumptions from stakeholders in the respective regions”.

What a wonderful way of confirming that the report contains some unpalatable predictions about just how screwed those regional economies would be.

Still, don't tell the kids where they'll be living after the divorce, they're better off not knowing how little they're getting for Christmas. 🙂

Adam Marshall, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the business community “wants a transition agreed in principle and trade talks under way by the end of 2017. If there is not that clarity we will start to see the activation of contingency plans and likely significant impact on business investment.”

Meanwhile business/private sector simply continues to get on with things

Indeed. Plans to move out of the UK, and to rationalise staff numbers are forging ahead with great gusto.

Perhaps we are misreading THM's advice, we should be setting up businesses to offer Brexit planning services, you know organise lots of meetings, talk a lot and write some reports that will be out of date by the time they are printed 😉

Anyway with the DUP now putting pressure on to sack Hammond we can see that this is a tiny bunch of people pushing their agenda.

Mike - really? The DUP will not stand for a hard exit as that means a hard border for eire / NI and Hammond is the most likely to make it a soft exit. More shooting themselves in the foot.

[img] [/img]
As much as you can believe the Telegraph

it just gets more ridiculous. without Hammond the chances of a hard leave are higher!

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/what-connects-brexit-the-dup-dark-money-and-a-saudi-prince-1.3083586
They will do what their paymasters tell them to do....

it just gets more ridiculous

Let's face it, there's not been much intelligence exhibited in the rationale for Brexit as it is. I wouldn't have thought the DUP were a place to start looking for it.

teamhurtmore

Meanwhile business/private sector simply continues to get on with things. The politicians can posture as much as they like, they merely react. In contrast, business gets on with life proactively.

We are, others should do the same.

Is a fair point. I’ve been involved tangentially with Brexit preps for my place, albeit on a small scale, mostly working out where the costs of things we need to import and can never make in the UK are likely to go in the next few weeks/months. There’s been considerable volatility and suppliers are only happy to absorb changes so far, so we have to factor this in.

But adopting a pragmatic attitude to business and forecasting for future trading environments is only one small part of how Brexit affects us as a nation...what’s far, far more important is what- let’s call them ‘ordinary people’- need to do, or can actually do, to offset big unexpected change.

It’s simple, really- we have a system where politicians are elected to act in the best interests of the electorate in matters where an individual can’t directly effect an outcome. We influence them by informing them of our concerns and ask them to act on our behalf. We expect them to take a balanced view of the matter, and intercede for us.

Brexit should be one of those matters. But Brexit being what it is, it seems to me that there’s little that ordinary people can do to now to have their concerns addressed. If the contents of these reports are true, those who can’t handle the change will suffer. How can breadliners cope with a surge in retail pricing, for example?

As usual, those who can prepare and offset can and will do so, and those who can’t need help and interventions from their representatives. And they’re not getting that. They’re getting publicly-funded reports suppressed because they don’t fit the vision. It’s difficult to proactively plan for change when you need an elected representative to do that for you, and they in turn are attending to a different agenda.

How many of these so-called ordinary people decided that their interest were best served by not being members of the EU? Our representatives have a duty to respect their wishes and execture the mandate that they were given, In this case the ordinary people have asked them to withdraw our membership.

The government is currently seeking to negotiate a deal on their behalf. They are not despite all the froth seeking a hard brexit although quite rationally they accept that this is one of a series of potential outcomes that needs to be prepared for. Plus it has to be genuinely "threatened" in order to stop the EU play is their silly games.

So the ordinary folk are getting what they wanted. It was their choice. They can't complain.

The government is currently seeking to negotiate a deal on their behalf.

How many of these so-called ordinary people decided that their interest were best served by not being members of the EU?

Just over 17 million. UK population just over 66 million. So just over a quarter.

Plus it has to be genuinely "threatened" in order to stop the EU play is their silly games.

I'm not quite sure the EU have finished laughing at our attempts to negotiate. Let alone stopped laughing long enough to contrive to play silly games. How's the red white and blue Brexit coming along? That sounded sooooooo sensible.

So the ordinary folk are getting what they wanted. It was their choice. They can't complain.

Ah, Tory compassion at its finest. And you wonder why anyone with an ounce of moral fibre loathes your sort.

We know thwe consequences broadly. Yes, they have a mandate to deliver. They need to do it to the best of their ability. It's not easy for sure but farting about and moaning endlessly does get anyone anywhere.

Why are you wasting your time on here,then THM ?

Charming Zokes but your attempt to design the issue along party political lines instead of accepting reality is the reason why [s]anyone capable of thinking got one moment, "loathes your sort" [/s] your opinions can be dismissed so readily.

Feel free to ignore what these people want and impose you minority views on them. You know best after all and bugger them and their wishes and interest. But shouldn't you be more worried about the bursting of the Aussie debt bubble?

(How many of use voted to remain BTW?)

It's Sunday and finished ride so needed some fun to read. Will so some more work later 😉

[img] [/img]

We know thwe consequences broadly. Yes, they have a mandate to deliver. They need to do it to the best of their ability.

It's not easy for sure but farting about and moaning endlessly does get anyone anywhere.

Given the best anyone seems to manage is to say Bespoke Deal (c) and Best Interests (c) blah blah blah no you can't see the report it doesn't exist it's not looking like a good deal is anywhere near

Feel free to ignore what these people want and impose you minority views on them

I'll happily ignore the views of just over 25% of the population if it benefits the other 75%. Maths not your strongpoint, tmh?

Not really, day by day we are inching towards compromise. Both sides have said as much. The issue is the glacial pace.

thejesmonddingo - Member

Why are you wasting your time on here,then THM ?

I don't think he understands that nowadays he is either blocked or have folk laughing at him. His attempts to patronise and sneer enough to antagonise folk is no longer working. Why he is allowed to stay on here I don't know

But shouldn't you be more worried about the bursting of the Aussie debt bubble?

Why?

lol I assume he hasn't worked out people can multi-worry.
Given the negotiations have inched onwards to still not have the 3 starting conditions met at this stage makes any hope of a decent outcome slim to say the least, it's not like there is a fixed deadline or anything to worry about.

lol I assume he hasn't worked out people can multi-worry.

Well, as a non home owner but having an almost complete 20% deposit, if we're honest, that bubble bursting would be quite good for me. And I doubt I'll shed too many tears for the over-invested landlords who were able to buy their sixth property having their risks subsidised by my taxes through negative gearing.

Not really, day by day we are inching towards compromise. Both sides have said as much.

Barnier is talking about a "dead end" not compromise. There is no compromise possible on NI (it's a catch 22), the British refuse point blank to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK will be maintained and the financial negociations are so far apart a compromise is not even near. If "we are inching towards compromise" then there a kms still left to cover and there's no chance of getting there before the death of all parites concerned.

https://www.la-croix.com/Brexit-Barnier-espere-avancees-deux-mois-2017-10-12-1300883708

Very true, the impact on the UK's housing market of a recession would be troubling, guess that on is in a Top Secret document somewhere too. But I'm sure the poorest will be resolute when they work out it's all being done to teach them a good lesson.

Why are you wasting your time on here,then THM ?

Zokes - I thought you lived in Aus? But the debt bubble is going to burst at some point.

Great comments TJ from a guy who loves to shout "nonsense" at some of the more sensible and informed posters here and then bully people into submission by posting stuff that is patently untrue. The laughs are genuine but you are missing the source.

And the truth - Barnier hinting at moving towards trade negotiations. Germans stalling, others wanting to proceed.

Wherelse can the bullies suppress debat and drive forumites away? There is probably only one leaver left who is prepared to post on here. But then suppression of debate and indoctrination with false facts is a well-abused tactic of certain groups thru history. No change there....

That those Germans who 6 months ago were going to force the rest of the EU into a U.K. friendly compromise?

The future is a strange place I think.

They know who will be picking up the tab IGM. They have always been driven by self interest - with refugees being one notable and commendable exception for which Merkel was widely derided - no wonder Schauble is already talking about letting the UK back in!!

How are you? You have been quite this week

I was out in Salt Lake City doing some stuff with our American cousins. Brutal trip as always. People hear about jetting off places and imagine a wonderful glamorous lifestyle. Airports, taxis and hotels are not glamorous.

I don’t doubt your logic on the Germans, though I have no view either way myself as all the Germans I’ve met are splendid people but governments sometimes aren’t. I was just reflecting on any number of Brexies telling us that we would get an excellent free trade deal with Europe because we buy German cars.

Also, nothing much has happened worth commenting on this last week.
Few interesting things that may or may not become worth reflecting on in a week or two.
Opinion polls at 47:41 remain are not as one offs interesting (ok it’s not quite one offs but...) however if it gets to say 50:40 and stays consistent around that level, then politically the Brexies (and those like the Tories they are relying on) have a problem.
Funny old game politics.

Inside source on German money demands. Auto industry public knowledge. Budget concerns simply obvious. The last thing the Germans want is to be the main guys on the hook for unfunded pensions.

Germans are acting in their self interest. And many here applaud that. We act in our self interests and the opposite. As you say funny old game politics

Talking of funny old politics poor old JMcD had a rough ride from Marr this morning. He makes some of the nutters look like heavyweights. Sad bloody bunch all round

igm - bar the fact the talks have pretty much collapsed, the lies of the 3 amigos are now pretty much completely exposed and the fact that a cross party consensus has emerged to stop a hard brexit that has meant the tories are so scared of losing votes they have had to delay the committee stages of the bill?

In other words the tory strategy has now collapsed

FAO any Brexiteers playing the "make Britain great again" card ...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/14/defence-spending-mod-cuts-brexit

There was a strategy? 🙂

And the more honest assessment - even from the guardian

Here are the main points from the press conference with David Davis, the Brexit secretary, and Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator. Not for the first time, Barnier arrived with a headline-friendly phrase conveying doom. But he also hinted at the possibility of progress by the end of this year. That would be much later than the UK government originally wanted, and it would still leave precious little time to agree a transition deal before British businesses start to hit the panic button, but it does give Davis a sliver of good news to cling to

Talking of funny old politics poor old JMcD had a rough ride from Marr this morning.

Must have been watching different programmes. Marr asked him some obvious questions. McD gave some obvious answers. No drama.

THM - that makes Davis sound like a fish being brought in by an angler. (Oops, almost a pun.) Not great, however...

...Turning to TJ’s comment, I think the talks and the mood in parliament sounds about where I’d expect around now.

There is an inflection point coming, but which way it goes... well we’ll see I guess.

IGM - about what is expected? Perhaps but it makes awful news for the tory boys on here hence their continual attempts to divert, mock. scorn etc

I heard a programme on radio 4 on my to/back the supermarket:

We are exactly where we want to be re negotiations as the only traction we have left is cash. We walk away the EU has a large funding gap to bridge...

So basically we are playing a game of chicken (and who will blink first).

Waaay, go us...

It won't be the EU thats for sure. Exactly where we want to be? Only if you are a far right zealot

MH - no surprise there. Both sides are involved with rather unnecessary posturing. But as before that’s politicians for you.

Too lightweight to create drama. His answers were vacuous at best Dr

Still looks like the Eu will keep us dangling until dec or jan before sense prevails

IGM you are generous re the assessment of the talks ^. But it makes prople happy to make things up because the truth is rather dull. The ONE thing we know is that talks have not collapsed. We even know the timetable for the next rounds.